U.S. Women [#8]: Meet Me in St. Louis

[ChillSkate]

Interesting to note that Amber's 214.78 would have been 4th at Grand Prix de France and Alysa's 212.07 would have been 5th. For reference, Isabeau finished 4th and scored 212.71 at GP France - it was a tough field!

 

[PRlady]

But it also shows how close the three women are: who goes to Milan as national champ will come down to who’s best on that day at Nats. They’re really a talented crew and so different from each other, it’s a pleasure to watch them.

 

[ChillSkate]

But it also shows how close the three women are: who goes to Milan as national champ will come down to who’s best on that day at Nats. They’re really a talented crew and so different from each other, it’s a pleasure to watch them.

Totally agree. And I do think it will be those 3 in Milan barring injury. Very glad we get to enjoy all 3!

 

[A.H.Black]

Amber and Alysa are so different in that Amber just with her face looks so stress all of the time when she goes out there and Alysa is smiling like nothing is bothering her even thought we know she gets those nerves like any competitor does. It is fascinating how some skaters like Alysa can hide the nerves but other skaters like Amber and Gracie when she was skating look terrified at times.

Alysa has mentioned in interviews that she doesn't get nervous. She has tried to make herself nervous so she will feel an "edge" but it's not natural to her. I think that's amazing, though not unheard of. I think she feels excitement and anticipation, but not the debilitating feeling of nerves.

 

[PRlady]

Alysa has mentioned in interviews that she doesn't get nervous. She has tried to make herself nervous so she will feel an "edge" but it's not natural to her. I think that's amazing, though not unheard of. I think she feels excitement and anticipation, but not the debilitating feeling of nerves.

I hope she goes on to a career in the military or diplomatic corps, the country could use her.

 

[Allskate]

Interesting to note that Amber's 214.78 would have been 4th at Grand Prix de France and Alysa's 212.07 would have been 5th. For reference, Isabeau finished 4th and scored 212.71 at GP France - it was a tough field!

That was a very tough field. Bummer for Isabeau, who would have medaled in China, but an even bigger bummer if you are a Japanese skater trying to make the Olympic team and are going up again the GPdeF medalists. I can understand why Rinka went for the triple axel combo; she's battling for a spot on the Olympic team.

Fortunately for both Amber and Alysa, they don't have to go up against Kaori or Ami in either of their GP events. Amber and Alysa have really good shots at making the GP Final. Isabeau will be skating against Ami again next week, alongside Mone Chiba. More of a Japanese competition within a competition. At this point, Isabeau doesn't really have a chance of making the final anyway, so I'm glad it's her that's going to be there and not Amber or Alysa. Maybe it's good for Mone that Isabeau and Ami just had a competition and might be a little tired? I'm there for the Japanese skating drama.

OK I am going to tell you something, I do secretly wish that after most programs she didn’t go right to …my back …or my neck or sad because she missed one jump yet still wins everything. I want to see her, stand up, smile, and take her bows and show she is fierce no matter what.. then go to the KNC and emote.

I generally hate it when someone tells people to smile, but I agree. I don't think it's strategically smart to look unhappy immediately after you finish your program, especially when you did quite well, just not perfect. If you don't look happy with how good your performance was, then why should the judges think it was good? That's the last image they see before giving PCS scores. Amber rarely looks happy when she finishes her programs.

I feel the same way about Isabeau. I get being a perfectionist. But, if she makes even one small mistake, as soon as she finishes her final pose she breaks character and you can immediately see the disappointment. Not wise. It would be good for her to save that look until after she gets to the kiss and cry and the judges aren't watching or already have scored her.

 

[jägerbomb]

Good event for Amber and Alysa in China.

It's clear MacArthur Park's moment has passed. I love Alysa, but she was the recipient of World Champ scoring bonus here. Let's hope the retooled Gaga program is successful.

 

[Wyliefan]

It's clear MacArthur Park's moment has passed.

I'm not so sure. It wasn't the program that was the problem in the last minute; it was the fact that she was gassed. When she's not, she makes that footwork sing.

I can't believe I'm defending this program after I disliked it for most of last season. But the way she rocked it at Worlds made a believer out of me.

 

[Allskate]

I can't believe I'm defending this program after I disliked it for most of last season. But the way she rocked it at Worlds made a believer out of me.

IMO, Worlds is the only time she's really rocked it. She deserves a better program. I'm looking forward to seeing a reworked Lady GaGa program.

 

[olympic]

^So, does this mean that Alysa's Lady Gaga LP is coming back this season? Sorry if I missed the announcement somewhere else.

Anyway, I am satisfied with all of Amber, Alysa and Isabeau's performances so far on the GP circuit. No one was perfect but all were really solid, as they should be in October; Alysa's 3-3s are rotated and I'm super happy to see a 3Z-3L in the 2nd half of her SP. The girl is strategic and competitive. Very Witt-esque. When is the last time we've seen an American woman like that?

I hope after the Boston Open, Bradie is on track to give us big scores and some competition to the big 3. That would add to the drama at Nationals, wouldn't it? She has the talent and achieved scores like that in 2020.

 

[Bulletsdad]

IMO, Worlds is the only time she's really rocked it. She deserves a better program. I'm looking forward to seeing a reworked Lady GaGa program.

She also rocked it at WTT.

 

[Private Citizen]

Liu needs to train her triple axel. That will make much more of a difference than whatever program she skates.

Enough women are coming out with ultra-C elements that those without may end up off the podium even with clean skates. I'll make a bold prediction that Kaori Sakamoto will not improve on her Olympic bronze medal and may well end up off the podium. I believe two of the three podium spots, and perhaps all three, will go to women with triple axels. The point differentiator from the short program + the free (accounting that it also allows for a jump+2A+2A sequence or three difficult combos) is too great.

Unfortunately, Levito peaked way too early in the cycle. She (and Sakamoto) needed to be training triple axels and quads and not worrying about medals so early in the cycle. It's too late now.

The 3Lz+3Lo in the second half, if successful, will probably keep Liu highest of the non-triple axel women in the short. That said, it's a risky strategy. I'd have called her jumps 3F! (honestly even "e" would've been appropriate) and 3Lz+3Loq or < in China. The calling seemed rather generous.

 

[Karen-W]

Liu needs to train her triple axel. That will make much more of a difference than whatever program she skates.

Enough women are coming out with ultra-C elements that those without may end up off the podium even with clean skates. I'll make a bold prediction that Kaori Sakamoto will not improve on her Olympic bronze medal and may well end up off the podium. I believe two of the three podium spots, and perhaps all three, will go to women with triple axels. The point differentiator from the short program + the free (accounting that it also allows for a jump+2A+2A sequence or three difficult combos) is too great.

Unfortunately, Levito peaked way too early in the cycle. She (and Sakamoto) needed to be training triple axels and quads and not worrying about medals so early in the cycle. It's too late now.

The 3Lz+3Lo in the second half, if successful, will probably keep Liu highest of the non-triple axel women in the short. That said, it's a risky strategy. I'd have called her jumps 3F! (honestly even "e" would've been appropriate) and 3Lz+3Loq or < in China. The calling seemed rather generous.

Just who do you think has a semi-reliable or mostly reliable 3a who will be competing in the Olympics? Amber and?????

Ami Nakai wasn't consistent in past seasons with her 3A so she's going to need more than just one GP with that element being landed for me to put her in the same category as Amber with regard to the 3A. Rinka Watanabe is way too inconsistent with her 3A for her to make the Japanese team unless pigs fly. There's only room on the Japanese team for 3 women, one of whom will certainly be Kaori. We'll see what Mone looks like next week.

And Adeliia Petrosian is still injured, so who knows what shape she and her ultra-C elements will be in come February.

None of the US women training a 3A are even senior age-eligible except Amber, though I do agree, if Alysa is able to add a 3A in to her FS then it may make her unstoppable - I don't even think she necessarily needs it in the SP to remain competitive with the handful of women who do have a 3A.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

Amber is going to be on the Today show on Wednesday October 29.

 

[Allskate]

Liu needs to train her triple axel. That will make much more of a difference than whatever program she skates.

Enough women are coming out with ultra-C elements that those without may end up off the podium even with clean skates. I'll make a bold prediction that Kaori Sakamoto will not improve on her Olympic bronze medal and may well end up off the podium. I believe two of the three podium spots, and perhaps all three, will go to women with triple axels. The point differentiator from the short program + the free (accounting that it also allows for a jump+2A+2A sequence or three difficult combos) is too great.

Unfortunately, Levito peaked way too early in the cycle. She (and Sakamoto) needed to be training triple axels and quads and not worrying about medals so early in the cycle. It's too late now.

The 3Lz+3Lo in the second half, if successful, will probably keep Liu highest of the non-triple axel women in the short. That said, it's a risky strategy. I'd have called her jumps 3F! (honestly even "e" would've been appropriate) and 3Lz+3Loq or < in China. The calling seemed rather generous.

I agree that Alysa's scores were a bit generous. But, I think that tends to comes with a World Championship title. I often think that Kaori's scores, especially her PCS, are generous. (She's fast, powerful, and has very good skating skills, but she doesn't have superior choreography and performance skills to everyone else. Not saying she doesn't deserve to have really high presentation scores. I just think she gets a World Champion bonus.) Like last season, I hope that Alysa will be doing better with her rotations by later this season.

You say that Alysa needs to be training her triple axel, but from what she and others have said, she has been doing that. She and her coaches know better than we do if and when it makes sense to include them in her programs now. (For all we know, Kaori has been trying to add a triple axel but hasn't been successful.)

Having a triple axel or a quad isn't a guarantee of anything. Alysa won her World title without a triple axel, and she just beat someone who was doing triple axels. Kaori beat someone last week who had a quad. Both at Worlds and in the GPs so far this season, Kaori has scored higher than Amber, who had triple axels. And Amber is the only one who seems to have a consistent triple axel (or quad).

I don't think Isabeau peaked earlier in the cycle. I think she is skating better now than she was a few years ago. Her jumps are better, and her presentation is better. Even in comparison to this time last year, she is better. I doubt she had a realistic chance two or three years ago of completing a triple axel or quad (though I wouldn't be surprised if she tried unsuccessfully in training). This past year hasn't been the right one to try to make that kind of change. Early last season, she was adjusting to a summer growth spurt. (I think she is now benefitting from the growth spurts with stronger jumps.) Then, she was off the ice for months with an injury, and then she was trying her best just to get back into condition for Worlds. She very clearly spent this past summer improving both her jumps and presentation. Spending time on a triple axel or quad over the summer instead of regaining her conditioning and improving everything else probably would not have been wise.

 

[Private Citizen]

Just who do you think has a semi-reliable or mostly reliable 3a who will be competing in the Olympics? Amber and?????

Nakai or another Japanese woman with an ultra-C element plus Petrosian. Plus maybe Liu; we'll see.

I don't think Isabeau peaked earlier in the cycle. I think she is skating better now than she was a few years ago.

You're absolutely right, but her technical peak was in 2022-2023. IIRC she did try quads in summer competitions in the 2021 - 2022 timeframe? Or at least practiced them. In hindsight she probably needed to continue pursuing them. I love her skating, but I don't see how she continues to be competitive beyond this year. And she may already find herself struggling to get into the last group, as the world has changed between last season and this season. Any medal hopes rest on a splatfest from others, sad to say.

 

[natsulian]

Isabeau, Sarah, and Bradie are up against Mone and Ami this week at Skate Canada. Based on average scores thus far, both Mone and Ami surpass the three. However, Isabeau has been on an incline with her scores, having scored 207 in both of her Challenger events and then a 212 in France. As for Sarah, she scored 199 back in September with level issues. Bradie had a rough opening with a 187 back in September. The name of the game will come down to levels, performance component scores, and rotations. Sarah and Ami rarely under-rotate whereas Bradie, Isabeau, and Mone have rotation issues. If the technical panel is as lenient as China, we might see a podium where everyone scores 210 or higher. If they are strict, cleanliness will be the golden ticket. There are some big stakes for each woman though:

1. Can Ami repeat her stellar Grand Prix debut in France or will she falter under pressure? Of the four triple Axels she has attempted internationally this season, she landed 2 which gives her a current average of 50%. If she can deliver, she will have a lot of goodwill and momentum heading into nationals for her bid to be on the Olympic team.
2. Will Isabeau medal and, given how shaky Grand Prix placements are, put her name in the drawing for those six coveted Grand Prix final slots? Isabeau, if she wins, will essentially stamp her name in bright red ink for one of the three Olympic spots. She is a steely competitor but the 3-3 has been her headache this season. Of the six 3F-3Ts she attempted internationally, six have been deemed fully rotated giving her a current average of 50%. She was visibly upset by not being on the podium in France and we all know what an angry Isabeau is capable of (flashback to Montreal).
3. Will Mone win and outscore/defeat Ami? In the conversation of those with enough pedigree to be named onto the Olympic team, Kaori and Mone seem to be the most favored. However, Ami and Rion threw a huge wrench in that conversation two weeks ago. Mone needs to be great here, enough to beat Ami and win the event. If she does not, the Japanese federation is unforgiving. They have, in seasons past, decided to put newcomers onto the World or Olympic team over heavy favorite veterans.
4. How will Sarah and Bradie fare in this bloody ecosystem? Bradie and Sarah are in different positions: Sarah has managed to keep her momentum from last year's Four Continents medal by beating Alysa Liu and introducing a huge 3Lz-3T. However, she was bested by Rion and Ami in Lombardia. Sarah's big test will be to score above 200. Bradie comes off a less than stellar opening where she scored 187 in Japan. With a 221 at a domestic competition and a new short program under her wings, is she poised to score? Bradie is a veteran, she is a tough competitor, and she is eyeing one of those three Olympic spots. However, she has her work cut out for her. She will need to not just be good. She will need to be immaculate and, most importantly, beat both Isabeau and Sarah.

This upcoming Grand Prix is one of the most exciting because of how many storylines are involved. I'm excited to root for them all.

 

[Karen-W]

Nakai or another Japanese woman with an ultra-C element plus Petrosian. Plus maybe Liu; we'll see.

Except the likelihood of a 2nd Japanese woman with an ultra-C element displacing both Kaori and Mone is pretty low. And Petrosian hasn't shown she's back from injury - and I don't see the Olympic panel doing her any favors compared to the likes of Kaori & Alysa.

 

[natsulian]

I think Isabeau has a chance to get a triple Axel. If she continues and tries for 2030, she will probably train one. Now is not the time. Likewise, I think Sarah can get the triple Axel or quad Toe.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Isabeau, Sarah, and Bradie are up against Mone and Ami this week at Skate Canada. Based on average scores thus far, both Mone and Ami surpass the three. However, Isabeau has been on an incline with her scores, having scored 207 in both of her Challenger events and then a 212 in France. As for Sarah, she scored 199 back in September with level issues. Bradie had a rough opening with a 187 back in September. The name of the game will come down to levels, performance component scores, and rotations. Sarah and Ami rarely under-rotate whereas Bradie, Isabeau, and Mone have rotation issues. If the technical panel is as lenient as China, we might see a podium where everyone scores 210 or higher. If they are strict, cleanliness will be the golden ticket. There are some big stakes for each woman though:

1. Can Ami repeat her stellar Grand Prix debut in France or will she falter under pressure? Of the four triple Axels she has attempted internationally this season, she landed 2 which gives her a current average of 50%. If she can deliver, she will have a lot of goodwill and momentum heading into nationals for her bid to be on the Olympic team.
2. Will Isabeau medal and, given how shaky Grand Prix placements are, put her name in the drawing for those six coveted Grand Prix final slots? Isabeau, if she wins, will essentially stamp her name in bright red ink for one of the three Olympic spots. She is a steely competitor but the 3-3 has been her headache this season. Of the six 3F-3Ts she attempted internationally, six have been deemed fully rotated giving her a current average of 50%. She was visibly upset by not being on the podium in France and we all know what an angry Isabeau is capable of (flashback to Montreal).
3. Will Mone win and outscore/defeat Ami? In the conversation of those with enough pedigree to be named onto the Olympic team, Kaori and Mone seem to be the most favored. However, Ami and Rion threw a huge wrench in that conversation two weeks ago. Mone needs to be great here, enough to beat Ami and win the event. If she does not, the Japanese federation is unforgiving. They have, in seasons past, decided to put newcomers onto the World or Olympic team over heavy favorite veterans.
4. How will Sarah and Bradie fare in this bloody ecosystem? Bradie and Sarah are in different positions: Sarah has managed to keep her momentum from last year's Four Continents medal by beating Alysa Liu and introducing a huge 3Lz-3T. However, she was bested by Rion and Ami in Lombardia. Sarah's big test will be to score above 200. Bradie comes off a less than stellar opening where she scored 187 in Japan. With a 221 at a domestic competition and a new short program under her wings, is she poised to score? Bradie is a veteran, she is a tough competitor, and she is eyeing one of those three Olympic spots. However, she has her work cut out for her. She will need to not just be good. She will need to be immaculate and, most importantly, beat both Isabeau and Sarah.

This upcoming Grand Prix is one of the most exciting because of how many storylines are involved. I'm excited to root for them all.

Essence of what you’re saying here is that when I return back this week, I need to get more Halloween candy by Friday?

 

[olympic]

Q about the 3As - Is Alysa still intending to try and put one / them in her program(s)? Does Isabeau really have the technique and power to do a 3A? It doesn't seem like she does.

 

[Canadask8er]

The Olympic season is a marathon and not a sprint - I guess that can be said for all seasons, but Olympics is a bigger beast.
In the past we have seen people come on strong and then the predictions start flying (anyone remember Alyssa Csizny in 2005/2006). Did anyone predict Alyssa would be 2025 World Champ?
This will be a very interesting season and I am really looking forward to some amazing depth and amazing stories all year!