U.S. Women [#8]: Meet Me in St. Louis
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Vagabond
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Joking threats of violent harm to others are neither moral nor funny. They are offensive and pathetic.
Private Citizen
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Very disappointing season opener for Bradie Tennell, 8th in the free and 5th overall at the Japanese challenger.
She is at such a Body of Work disadvantage v. Liu, Glenn, and Levito that her Olympic chances are running on fumes at this point.
She has to do much much better in her GP events and / or hope Glenn or Levito does not. Otherwise I think the BoW deficit will be too large to overcome with almost any Nationals result.
She is at such a Body of Work disadvantage v. Liu, Glenn, and Levito that her Olympic chances are running on fumes at this point.
She has to do much much better in her GP events and / or hope Glenn or Levito does not. Otherwise I think the BoW deficit will be too large to overcome with almost any Nationals result.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Not really, since the BOW advantage from last season isn't really that large - at least not in the Selection Pool calculation. She actually has more BOW points from last season (90) than Levito (75). The BOW points from last season only include Nationals & ISU Championships (so, Amber's GPF win gets her nothing). Here are the BOW points for last season's results:
Liu - 255
Glenn - 135
Everhardt & Lin-Gracey (tie) - 120
Tennell - 90
Levito - 75
The real disadvantage comes in the fact that she scored 20+ points lower than Levito did at her Challenger. It isn't an and/or situation as far as the GP is concerned - it is a clear "AND" - she has to score much better AND Glenn or Levito have to bomb at least once.
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peibeck
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After so many injuries in this last cycle, it's amazing Bradie even continues on. She won't be the only talented skater whose dream of another Olympics is on the ropes, poor Wakaba Higuchi did even more poorly at this comp.
RoseRed
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What does Bradie have for previous season points besides top 3 at 4CCs? That would only give her 90 points (6*15), so I guess I'm forgetting one of the categories.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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Oh, you're right. I was playing around with my spreadsheet & forgot she has 6 vs Sarah & Elyce's 8. Either way, it doesn't change the fact that she actually has more BOW points from last season than Isabeau.
SkateFanBerlin
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Good showing of Annika Chao in JGP Varese 5th overall. A little worried about unders in the short - 2 out 3 of jumping passes. But, in the free almost all were rotated - about the same as several of the top girls. She seems to have good nerves. Next is to get a 3-3 in the programs. But, a lovely skater.
According to my reading of the rules, the BOW is based on the previous 12 months at the time of the team selection and the only events from last season that are relevant are Nationals, Worlds, and Four Continents. Also, although the point total from the relevant BOW is important to get into the selection pool, my understanding of the rules is that the examination of the body of work for picking the actual team members is very different and isn't about the point total.
I don't think Amber or Isabeau bombing once is going to do it for Bradie even if she has one great competition where she scores significantly better. The selection rules specifically say: "It has been the experience of U.S. Figure Skating that the athletes who have had the most success at the international level are those who have demonstrated consistent performances as opposed to the
athletes who only have a single great performance. Therefore, by using discretionary selection criteria,
U.S. Figure Skating can nominate the athletes who have the best chance to win the maximum number of
medals at the Games."
Alysa, Isabeau, and Amber all scored better at this year's Worlds than Bradie did at Four Continents, which probably was her best event in years. Bradie's performance and score did not show that she had a chance to medal at the Olympics, and I don't think her fourth place performance at Nationals (behind both Amber and Alysa) showed that either. Alysa's world championship win clearly shows that she has the potential to medal at the Olympics. Putting aside Isabeau's previous silver medal at Worlds, IMO, her fourth place at Worlds this year after being off the ice for three months also shows that she has the potential to medal. So, even though Isabeau missed Nationals because of her injury, coming into this season, I think that Alysa, Amber, and Isabeau all have an advantage over Bradie based on BOW thus far.
Scoring significantly better than Amber or Isabeau in one competition is not going to change that. According to the criteria, they are supposed to look at the protocols in the BOW and not simply at placements, but consistency and competitiveness. One competition isn't going to change that - unless maybe it's Nationals and she somehow manages to win because Amber, Isabeau, and Alysa all are injured or implode? And Amber's triple axel makes her more competitive and more likely to medal. Even though Amber is inconsistent with her jumping, she was scoring high and won all but one competition last season. For her not to qualify for the team, I think she would have to score significantly worse this season and not just in one competition.
That doesn't mean that Bradie doesn't have a chance. The selection committee also is supposed to look at trending scores. If Alysa, Amber, or Isabeau has a bad season overall leading up to the Olympics, then it might be different.
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Even then, if one of the top three falter, choosing the better of Sarah and Elyce based on trending scores and BOW makes sense, since either could be very competitive in 2030 while Brady will have retired. That was the best argument for sending Ilia four years ago and although it probably wonāt affect how he performs this year, itās not a bad argument.
Picking Sarah or Elyce over Bradie (and over Alysa, Isabeau, or Amber) based on all of their BOW (including trending scores over the year and potential for medaling) would make perfect sense under the selection criteria. The fact that Bradie might retire is not part of the selection criteria. If the USFS is going to remove Bradie from consideration based on her age, then she should be advised of that. IMO, it would be very unfair to eliminate her from consideration based on her age when she hasn't been given notice of that and it's not part of the selection criteria.
Wyliefan
Ubering juniors against my will
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I just watched Bradie. That program is seriously underwhelming, and the leopard print kimono doesn't suit her at all. What was her team thinking?
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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@Allskate - I don't disagree with you at all. I was mainly disputing the notion that last season's BOW is going to be the major determinative factor in what the Int'l Committee decides when it comes to the Olympic team. At this point, barring a disastrous injury, I think Alysa & Isabeau are locks for the team.
Surprisingly, I think Amber is the most vulnerable, but it won't be Bradie who knocks her out of the running - it will be either Sarah or Elyce. Amber has always struggled with consistency & the pressure of huge expectations (see Worlds 2025 SP). It wouldn't take much for a more consistent jumper like Sarah to beat Amber either internationally or domestically. And it wouldn't take a lot for Tammy Gambill to politick Elyce onto the team should Elyce have decent results/scores this fall & beat Amber at Nats. Bradie has neither of those in her favor.
Surprisingly, I think Amber is the most vulnerable, but it won't be Bradie who knocks her out of the running - it will be either Sarah or Elyce. Amber has always struggled with consistency & the pressure of huge expectations (see Worlds 2025 SP). It wouldn't take much for a more consistent jumper like Sarah to beat Amber either internationally or domestically. And it wouldn't take a lot for Tammy Gambill to politick Elyce onto the team should Elyce have decent results/scores this fall & beat Amber at Nats. Bradie has neither of those in her favor.
Amber still came in fifth at Worlds despite that short program, and that is due largely to her difficulty, quality of jumps, and presentation. Last season, Amber consistently scored high despite jump mistakes. She made mistakes at Nationals and still beat Sarah. Sarah hasn't shown consistency in programs with a triple axel and a triple lutz/triple toe or triple flip/triple toe and her GOE and her presentation scores wouldn't put her on an Olympic podium. Having said that, Sarah hasn't even competed this season. Maybe things will be different for her and then she can show potential for medaling at the Olympics. To date, though, I don't think that she or Elyse has.
I think the selection team might look at Amber's 2025 Worlds short program and think that she's not a great choice to skate the short program in the Olympic team event, but I doubt they look at that program and think that they should send Elyse or Sarah to the Olympics over Amber.
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