U.S. Pairs 2021-22 season - News & Updates, Part X

I would bet that Jessica and Brian are smart enough to see that not getting 4CC is not a vote of no confidence it’s a very real reflection of the fact that US figure skating sees a likely possibility of them going to the Olympics and, if they were called up, wants them to have the best chance of being Covid free. That’s not a vote of no confidence. That’s the opposite.
 
Theatregirl1122 said:
I would bet that Jessica and Brian are smart enough to see that not getting 4CC is not a vote of no confidence it’s a very real reflection of the fact that US figure skating sees a likely possibility of them going to the Olympics and, if they were called up, wants them to have the best chance of being ********* free. That’s not a vote of no confidence. That’s the opposite.
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Totally agree. It's more like, we're going to treat you like you're on the Olympic team because we are really afraid that one of the team members won't be able to compete and we think you will be called up in their place.
 
Theatregirl1122 said:
I would bet that Jessica and Brian are smart enough to see that not getting 4CC is not a vote of no confidence it’s a very real reflection of the fact that US figure skating sees a likely possibility of them going to the Olympics and, if they were called up, wants them to have the best chance of being ********* free. That’s not a vote of no confidence. That’s the opposite.
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Other people told me that they didn’t send them and Lindsay and Amber in case they’re needed as alternates at the Olympics. So they stay relatively safe and practicing
 
You send your best pairs to Worlds, no consolation prizes. It's about who has the best chance of scoring well there. Cain/LeDuc and Calalang/Johnson have been relatively neck in neck throughout the season, but C/L were convincing over C/J at Nationals. And Knierim/Frazier have consistently been the US's best pair, and shouldn't get knocked of that perch based on getting sick on the wrong day.

The US pairs nearly got 3 spots at 2021 Worlds even without them firing on all cylinders. Moore-Towers/Marinaro and Della Monica/Guarise had strong skates and both ended up beating Cain/LeDuc... but neither of those two pairs have skated well so far this season... that's how close the US was to getting 3 spots, and it's realistic again this season. Regardless of how many spots we get, you still send your best pairs to Worlds and put up your best fight. And you certainly don't punish your top pair for getting sick; it's nobody's fault and it feels like just about everyone's going to end up infected at some point.

C/J are great, but they just didn't do enough. When you can count the amount of good jumps they've done the past 2 seasons on approximately 3 or 4 fingers, it doesn't give them that great of a chance of getting big international assignments, especially since their throws aren't that strong either. And that can affect PCS and other areas of the scoresheet too. They also got a bit unlucky at Nationals in that Cain/LeDuc had just about the "competition of their lives". When's the last time C/L have done such a solid SP + FS in the same competition (yes there were mistakes in the FS, but it was more solid than their usual)? It's hard to recall other times when it has ever happened, maybe once in 2019.

Now I wonder about the Team Event. The press release says both Knierim/Frazier & Cain/LeDuc are eligible to participate, which makes sense. Are Cain/LeDuc suddenly going to skate like this internationally from now on? This was a rough National competition and the top pair was missing. Or are they going to be more like they tend to be internationally, where Ashley's 3Lo is hot & cold depending on the day/week...and the lifts, death spirals, etc get scored more properly...and some of those throws and twist catch are more eked out on occasion (their twist here in the LP, I don't think they would've gotten the level internationally for that setdown, and certainly not that GOE). K/F have better pair elements overall, and they're also not relying on a more risky SBS 3Lo in the SP. They don't tend to have the UR risk that C/L do either.

And the SP is important in the Team Event- you need a strong SP to be ahead of pairs from Canada, Italy, Georgia, maybe Germany. And you'd definitely need to be great to challenge Japan, possibly Peng/Jin if they do the Team Event. K/F have better international scores overall than C/L do in both the SP & LP. C/L have only one international SP score this season that is higher than K/F's LOWEST SP score. As our top pair, Knierim/Frazier should at least be given a test state or some sort of monitoring so that it could be a fair fight for the spot. It's in the US's best interest to have the spot based on something pairs related, not who was lucky enough to test negative last week.


Taso said:
Is there any word if C&J passed on 4cc by choice?
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It seems the Fed just wants to keep the 1st alternates out of 4CC and safe at home because of the unique circumstances the world is in, but it's also possible the alternates declined for that same reason. Green/Parsons are going, but ice dance was the one discipline that didn't have a top skater/coach infected at Nationals. In the past, I recall skaters having to decide if they wanted to attend 4CC before Nationals even happened. I don't know if that's still the case, but I tend to doubt C/J would have declined given all the competitions they missed. But you never know with the super short turnaround after a disappointing Nationals.

In the pairs discipline, 4CC is so watered down this year that it's not really worth sending the alternate all the way to Estonia for an event that only has entries from US/Canada. Wouldn't that mean it doesn't count towards World Standings points? Or at least it shouldn't. In the past 4CC has felt like a good consolation prize, but it's less so this year, especially for pairs.
 
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Honestly, 4Cs is only worth it this year for second-tier skaters who need the WS points. C/J unfairly missed competition time last year because of that idiotic drug test so perhaps that’s a reason to go, but I bet they’re being good soldiers as Oly alternates. I hope they are rewarded one way or another.
 
stjeaskategym said:
Now I wonder about the Team Event. The press release says both Knierim/Frazier & Cain/LeDuc are eligible to participate, which makes sense. Are Cain/LeDuc suddenly going to skate internationally like this from now on? This was a rough National competition and the top pair was missing. Or are they going to be more like they tend to be internationally, where Ashley's 3Lo is hot & cold depending on the day/week...and the lifts, death spirals, etc get scored more properly...and some of those throws and twist catch are more eked out on occasion (their twist here in the LP, I don't think they would've gotten the level internationally for that setdown, and certainly not that GOE). K/F have better pair elements overall, and they're also not relying on a more risky SBS 3Lo in the SP. They don't tend to have the UR risk that C/L do either.

And the SP is important in the Team Event- you need a strong SP to be ahead of pairs from Canada, Italy, Georgia, maybe Germany. And you'd definitely need to be great to challenge Japan, possibly Peng/Jin if they do the Team Event. K/F have better international scores overall than C/L do in both the SP & LP. C/L have only one international SP score this season that is higher than K/F's LOWEST SP score. As our top pair, Knierim/Frazier should at least be given a test state or some sort of monitoring so that it could be a fair fight for the spot. It's in the US's best interest to have the spot based on something pairs related, not who was lucky enough to test negative last week.
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The Team Event seems like a complete no-brainer to me - Knierim/Frazier. Despite them missing Nats, there are a LOT of data points we have for them over the course of this season - they competed five times from August through December. K/F were up-and-down throughout the season, especially in the SP, but they were consistently strong in the FS save Golden Spin (which they attributed to the VERY cold rink - and we had one FSUer there who was reporting the same thing while at the event). Cain-Gribble/LeDuc competed four times from September through November, getting progressively stronger with each competition.

Here's a comparison of their SP & FS scores over the season (excluding Nats for C-G/L because of Nats inflation):

Knierim/Frazier
SP - 69.83 / 76.09 / 66.37 / 70.15 / 66.44
FS - 136.04 / 136.46 / 136.60 / 131.54 / 120.25

Cain-Gribble/LeDuc
SP - 59.58 / 64.98 / 61.68 / 70.75
FS - 111.06 / 128.02 / 128.22 / 132.04

Even if you disregard C-G/L's first comp, ACI, where they were still clearly coming back from C19, their SP scores are still appreciably lower than K/F, same with the FS.
 
Agreed. 3 out of 4 SP scores for Cain/LeDuc are under 65, and 3 out of 4 LP scores are under 130. K/F have no SP scores under 66, and only 1 LP score out of 5 under 130. Between that and the fact that K/F have repeatedly scored as high as 136 in the FS (with room to get better), and well as 76 for a clean SP (and 70ish or higher 3 of 5 times), they're the obvious choice based on the numbers.

Even at NHK Trophy, when C/L scored much higher than they had at any point in the season, if you go back and look at her triple loops in both programs, particularly the FS, most technical callers wouldn't have been generous enough to give her that rotation. Their scores there almost felt like an outlier. (And the Autumn Classic FS low score was also an outlier)

So internationally, all the numerical evidence points in K/F's direction for sure.
 
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beckab81 said:
Biggest question mark is how K/F will recover from the loss of training time and any negative lingering effects Brendan might have. I'd guess USFS will be monitoring them very closely before making a decision.
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To be fair idk how much of a loss it was. Isn’t the quarantine 5 days which was just nationals timing where they wouldn’t have trained. Brandon said he feels better.
 
The skaters can’t (or shouldn’t) start training again until they test negative. And can’t fly, if they need to to get home. Have Brandon or Alysa been able to get home?
 
AYS said:
The skaters can’t (or shouldn’t) start training again until they test negative. And can’t fly, if they need to to get home. Have Brandon or Alysa been able to get home?
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The guidance changed with omicron, and a negative test is no longer required. It's just 5 days of isolation if your symptom free at the end of that period, or 10 days if you still have symptoms at day 5. Day 1 is either the day following the onset of symptoms or the day of your first positive test if asymptomatic.
 
BittyBug said:
The guidance changed with omicron, and a negative test is no longer required. It's just 5 days of isolation if your symptom free at the end of that period, or 10 days if you still have symptoms at day 5. Day 1 is either the day following the onset of symptoms or the day of your first positive test if asymptomatic.
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The last time Alysa posted it looked like she was still in her hotel room.
 
stjeaskategym said:
Agreed. 3 out of 4 SP scores for Cain/LeDuc are under 65, and 3 out of 4 LP scores are under 130. K/F have no SP scores under 66, and only 1 LP score out of 5 under 130. Between that and the fact that K/F have repeatedly scored as high as 136 in the FS (with room to get better), and well as 76 for a clean SP (and 70ish or higher 3 of 5 times), they're the obvious choice based on the numbers.

Even at NHK Trophy, when C/L scored much higher than they had at any point in the season, if you go back and look at her triple loops in both programs, particularly the FS, most technical callers wouldn't have been generous enough to give her that rotation. Their scores there almost felt like an outlier. (And the Autumn Classic FS low score was also an outlier)

So internationally, all the numerical evidence points in K/F's direction for sure.
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Agree! It should be K/F. Hopefully they are able to get back to training this week it’s only a 5 day quarantine period and he said he was feeling better already during that CNN interview. Wishing them the best
 
Karen-W said:
Yes, but the concern with Brandon, as he himself said, is that he also has asthma.
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True! But typically people with asthma are on regimens and are well versed with managing it. Unlike someone who has never experienced Asthma. Since he indicated he suffers from Asthma he’s probably well educated and equipped to manage it.
 
I think Ashley and Tim have a great case for being in the team event. They’ve been improving all season and had two incredibly solid skates at Nationals. We know they are in peak form. And I’d like to see them have a chance at a medal since Alexa already has one (sorry, Brandon 😛).
 
I wish they would let both pairs teams and dance teams compete in the Team event to let more people possibly get a medal. The last Olympics U.S. ladies and men got two competitors for the Team event, so why not switch it around this time. Or let both pairs teams compete in the team event if Nathan only wants to do one program for the Team event.
 
hlp728 said:
I wish they would let both pairs teams and dance teams compete in the Team event to let more people possibly get a medal. The last Olympics U.S. ladies and men got two competitors for the Team event, so why not switch it around this time. Or let both pairs teams compete in the team event if Nathan only wants to do one program for the Team event.
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Dance should have two teams because H/D and C/B both deserve a chance at a medal. They’ve performed better on the world scene than any of our pairs.
 
Taso said:
Absolutely. What a smart and clear justification. With this thinking, the US should be splitting Mens and Dance, for sure. I love it
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Under that scenario, who would be the lone US woman? I assume Liu, right? I mean - we don’t want the woman to sink USA’s chances.
 
hlp728 said:
I wish they would let both pairs teams and dance teams compete in the Team event to let more people possibly get a medal. The last Olympics U.S. ladies and men got two competitors for the Team event, so why not switch it around this time. Or let both pairs teams compete in the team event if Nathan only wants to do one program for the Team event.
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It depends on the what the skaters want to do - the Shibutani's wanted to do both last time so then the opportunity was available to split the ladies.
 
Frau Muller said:
Under that scenario, who would be the lone US woman? I assume Liu, right? I mean - we don’t want the woman to sink USA’s chances.
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Taso said:
That's who I have been thinking at least!
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For starters, the US isn't going to split pairs - not when they're the last event of the Olympics. But, playing that game, if they use only one woman (which has been the assumption by most of us following that discussion), Liu & Bell are pretty interchangeable. My gut says they'll use Bell because she's the National Champ.
 
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