U.S. Pairs 2017 - News & Updates, Part VII

[chachacha]

Right they still have to do it again, it's just that all signs point to them doing it. Maybe the tone of that post was a bit harsh but that's the reality the other US pairs are in heading into the Olympic season. I wasn't sure if everyone is aware of how ahead Alexa and Chris are just based on the stats/scores since Sochi. Then there's scoring potential, technical ability, finesse, difficulty, etc. Many reasons.

Everyone else had a lot of extra time last season with the Knierims out... and nobody stepped up but the Knierims in the post-season. We'd have to rely on Nebelhorn right now if not for them, and they'd be exactly the team we'd be sending to the competition to secure the spot. The other US pairs have this GP and challenger season to establish themselves as the top US pair heading into Nationals. If the Knierims, once again, prove to be our top US pair heading into Nationals this season.. we probably won't ever have as clear cut of Olympians before the competition actually starts ever again IMO, in any of the disciplines.

Having one spot really sucks. With only one spot, the team competition makes it matter that much more who gets selected. From here until Nationals is going to mean everything for all of the non-Alexa and Chris pairs.

Well Chris and Alexa have been given the easier Grand Prixs and USFSA have set them up nicely to make the GPF. It's theirs to lose for sure! But I'm betting they are ready and able and wish this season would start already

 

[olympic]

BTW, In her Goldenskate interview, Dalilah noted that there was only half a dozen points separating 10th -> 5th place at 2017 Worlds, which would mean that a healthy Alexa / Chris are not to be excluded from the conversation of those fighting at the top.

 

[wickedwitch]

The Knerims aren't my absolute favorites, but unless they have a dismal GP or are injured, the USFSA would be stupid to send anyone else with the team medal on the line.

 

[thvu]

Alexa and Chris haven't lost to another US Pair internationally this entire quad. The only time a US pair has ever beaten them is 2016 US Nationals. After that competition, they went to Four Continents and scored the highest LP score (and eventually the highest SP score in Boston) that any US pair has ever received under the new judging system. They're all inconsistent and some of the newer teams are completely unproven and nothing but hype so far.

And even then, that was only because K&O were given ridiculous PCS gifts.

 

[Jojo13]

BTW, In her Goldenskate interview, Dalilah noted that there was only half a dozen points separating 10th -> 5th place at 2017 Worlds, which would mean that a healthy Alexa / Chris are not to be excluded from the conversation of those fighting at the top.

Do not read too much into that interview. Some of those teams in the top 10 were not at their full potential either. Just know that there were a lot of things that were said in that interview that one must read between the lines.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

And even then, that was only because K&O were given ridiculous PCS gifts.

K/O skated both programs clean and skated the hell out of them. S/K didn't. There was no question who the clear winner was at that event.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Alexa and Chris haven't lost to another US Pair internationally this entire quad. The only time a US pair has ever beaten them is 2016 US Nationals. After that competition, they went to Four Continents and scored the highest LP score (and eventually the highest SP score in Boston) that any US pair has ever received under the new judging system. They're all inconsistent and some of the newer teams are completely unproven and nothing but hype so far.

If we send anybody else but Alexa and Chris to the Olympics, I think the international (non-US) skating community would be completely scratching their heads. It's not that our other teams aren't very good, but we only have one spot and nobody else can score as high as the Knierims on an off day. An off day for any of our other pairs means not advancing to the long program, right? All just my opinion, but it's an extremely strong argument to send Alexa and Chris no matter what happens at Nationals IMO. I don't see any of our teams challenging them internationally this year unless something drastic happens. I get that people might just like another team more, but, well, get over it quite frankly.

It is what it is and we only have one spot for Pyeongchang with a bronze medal in the team competition on the line. A 10th place in the SP from Cain and Leduc really won't cut it.

Can I get an Amen up in here?

Im sure other US teams will and have improved this summer... but still Alexa and Chris could come off those past 12 months and go to Worlds and do as they did in their condition.... the next best team D&F didnt even qualify to the free as we all know. Others pointed out to me that even if you took C&L best international scores last year they too wouldn't have advanced to the free. And its entirely a "who knows" if C&T could have.....

Chris may not always have his jumps but you can for the most part count on all the throws, lifts, spins and twist no matter whats going on with them.

@Karpenko I agree with your statements.... "We'd have to rely on Nebelhorn right now if not for them, and they'd be exactly the team we'd be sending to the competition to"secure the spot.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Well Chris and Alexa have been given the easier Grand Prixs and USFSA have set them up nicely to make the GPF. It's theirs to lose for sure! But I'm betting they are ready and able and wish this season would start already

I don't think Knierims have been given the easier GPs in any year thus far.. If they had stayed in last year both their events seemed the toughest to me and the year before as well. This year aint no cake-walk either for them, especially SkAm.

 

[thvu]

K/O skated both programs clean and skated the hell out of them. S/K didn't. There was no question who the clear winner was at that event.

IMO, the only PCS score that K&O deserved that nationals was for P&E. Their Skating Skills, Choreography, and Interpretation should have been in the 7s at most, and their transitions in the 6s.

Their SP that season could have been to anything. They didn't even bother trying to interpret the music. The transitions and choreographic nuances in their LP could be counted on one hand. Only at US Nationals was it even possible for Alexa and Chris to lose PCS to K&O, and I really don't understand why. Skating clean should not equal high PCS when the quality of the skating and the quality of programs was so subpar from K&O.

 

[kwanfan1818]

A 10th place in the SP from Cain and Leduc really won't cut it.

If the scoring stays the same as for Sochi, the worst a team can do is a total of 7 points, 1 for last in the SP and 6 for last in the FS.

Given that seven teams are a lock -- RUS, CAN, USA, JPN, CHN, FRA, and ITA -- with three spots open -- likely three of GER, KOR, CZE, and AUS -- don't think that C/LD of 4C's would do worse than JPN, and KOR and AUS (if they get the last spot over CZE). It depends on whether S/M skate the SP to test out the ice before the Pairs event; otherwise, C/L should beat GER #2. For the FS, I'd think the teams would be RUS, CAN, USA, CHN, and probably JPN.

Honestly, I don't see the Knierims doing more than two points better: I don't see them beating RUS #1 or #2 -- I don't think RUS would use #3 since they're in it for the gold -- CAN, FRA (assuming J/C) or S/M, if they skate for GER. If GER and/or FRA #2 skate, I'd expect the Knierims or L/C to beat them. All things being equal, they should beat Duskova/Bidar and probably Marchei/Hotarek, which C/L likely wouldn't, in the SP. I don't think it will make a difference in the FS, where USA will likely be 4th under RUS, CAN, and CHN, beating JPN.

 

[VGThuy]

There have been scenarios fans have come up with with regard to the team competition where two points mattered.

 

[Willin]

TBH, I see few scenarios short of injury/illness (which I'm hoping doesn't happen) where the Knirems aren't on the Olympic team.
I do get why Cain/LeDuc are seen as the favorites for second place. Denney/Frazier and Kayne/O'Shea are very good when they're on, but they're so rarely on and so often suffering from injury that I don't think they'll gain the reputation/skills they need internationally to move up the ranks. Stellato/Bartholomay are pretty old - not that that's a bad thing if they can keep up - just that it might be harder for them to keep up.

For Cain/LeDuc, I see a lot of advantages that USFSA and skating analysts would like. They're not that old for the pair's discipline, so they could keep going after this Olympics. They did relatively well last season despite their short partnership, and got a lot stronger with each competition - showing they still had room to improve and become a lot more competitive. Despite her height, he's able to lift/throw her and that's all that really matters. The reason so many pairs ladies are short is because it's just easier to lift a smaller person - NOT because it hurts the score. (In fact, I like smaller height differences - it makes the lines match so much better) And, perhaps what is most exciting, is Ashley's strong singles skating. It will help them learn more difficult jumping elements and, in theory, make their jumping elements more consistent - something US Pairs teams struggle with.

This is not to say I think Cain/LeDuc should be the obvious second choice for the Olympics - I think Denney/Frazier and Kayne/O'Shea are better right now if they're on - just that they certainly have the ability to be at least at the same level as those two teams in the future but with more consistency than those two teams.

 

[Cleo1782]

IMO, the only PCS score that K&O deserved that nationals was for P&E. Their Skating Skills, Choreography, and Interpretation should have been in the 7s at most, and their transitions in the 6s.

Their SP that season could have been to anything. They didn't even bother trying to interpret the music. The transitions and choreographic nuances in their LP could be counted on one hand. Only at US Nationals was it even possible for Alexa and Chris to lose PCS to K&O, and I really don't understand why. Skating clean should not equal high PCS when the quality of the skating and the quality of programs was so subpar from K&O.

So in your opinion a clean K/O should have lost to S/K at nationals in 2016? I mean, s/K were the odds on favorite to win, but K/O clearly outclassed them at this event. PCS overmarked or not, Alexa and Chris were not the better team over those two days and that's all that counts. I have never heard much outcry about K/O's victory. I thought it was pretty obvious.....

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

But its also because of C&L height situation that they are able to achieve those stunning lines. A very tall dude and a petite gal can't achieve those lines. They may get better throws, better twists but the lines C&L can achieve really is amazing.

 

[Dobre]

McLoughlin & Brubaker
Orscher & Lucash
Denney & Coughlin

It seems that often U.S. pair teams that were expected to qualify for the Olympics don't.

I'd like to think SK&K will get their quad twist back. If they do, they will have a few more points to combat the international field. But currently they are not competing with the same BV as they once were. (And Chris is no more consistent with his jumps than he always has been). They've done themselves a solid the past couple years, and they are certainly the favorites at this point in time. Their basics are good. They skate with more speed & have more height on their big elements than most of the U.S. pairs teams.

Do I see anyone else in the current U.S. pairs field likely to challenge SK&K if SK&K have a steady season? Nope. But then I didn't see Evora & Ladwig or Zhang & Bartholomay making the Olympic team either. (It was a good thing Evora & Ladwig did. They defeated the U.S. National Champions at the Olympics).

The inability to see the future is a universal reality. The inability to admit that one cannot see the future . . . that is the flaw.

After the 2016 U.S. Nationals, how many people thought the ladies in 8th and 11th place would bump the U.S. National Champion off the team for the following Worlds?

Zero. That's how many.

 

[kwanfan1818]

There have been scenarios fans have come up with with regard to the team competition where two points mattered.

There were fan scenarios before Sochi that had RUS and CAN neck-and-neck for gold, and RUS had it wrapped up mathematically before the FD was skated.

 

[VGThuy]

There were fan scenarios before Sochi that had RUS and CAN neck-and-neck for gold, and RUS had it wrapped up mathematically before the FD was skated.

Isn't the point to maximize every point you can? If you can potentially score two more points, why not do it?

 

[kwanfan1818]

Isn't the point to maximize every point you can? If you can get potentially two more points for doing something, why not use it?

That suggests that USFS should give the Knierims the lone Olympic spot regardless of how they skate this Fall, so that the US is pretty sure of getting two more points in the TE based on historical placements.

By the official rules, if they stay the same as Sochi, the TE isn't taken into consideration at all for choosing the team, and maximizing points isn't taken into consideration in the team assignments. In fact, the official rules make it entirely up to the skaters, based on them balancing their wish for a potential team medal vs. how they think it will impact their placements in the individual event.

The skaters are asked in December whether they want to do both, one program (and which program), or none in the TE, and whether they are willing to reconsider if not all the spots are filled. A USFS committee ranks the disciplines in the order of predicted strength, and the spots are distributed based on the written (in December) preferences of the skaters in ranked order in the first-ranked discipline, then the second-ranked discipline, etc. until the spots are distributed. If there are fewer skaters/teams than spots, they go to the "reconsider" checkbox and try to fill the spots.

Of course, that's all theoretical, because USFS sees their preferences before making the Olympic team selections, and any skater/team who isn't at the Davis/White level in Dance writes that they'll do anything USFS wants them to. (Which could be both segments -- imagine a Pairs team writing that they want to do the SP only -- or it could be one, because they are likely to be top-ranked, but USFS has made it clear they want two in that discipline.) Even after they've been chosen, if they prefer the SP/SD to the FS/FD, and USFS tells them they're doing the FS/FD because USFS has decided that those two potential points are meaningful, chances are they'll skate the FS/FD.

They also may change the official rules.

 

[spiral9509]

2017 Philadelphia Summer Championships Pairs result and fancams (August 4-5, 2017)
Name / Name (SC) Total SP FS FS_Video

Sr. Pairs
Deanna Stellato / Nathan Bartholomay (Southwest Florida FSC) 170.91 64.39 106.52 FS_Video
Paige Conners / Evgeni Krasnopolsky (Israel) 169.28 63.98 105.30 FS_Video

Jr. Pairs
Elli Kopmar / Jonah Barrett (Southwest Florida FSC) 133.88 47.44 86.44 FS_Video
Hilary Asher / Nathaniel Dennler (Dallas FSC / Colonial FSC) 100.41 35.75 64.66 FS_Video
Sarah Rose / Ian Meyh (Southwest Florida FSC) 97.52 31.70 65.82 FS_Video
Gabriella Marvaldi / Daniel Villeneuze (SC Of Southern New Jersey) WD 47.99 WD

 

[Karpenko]

So in your opinion a clean K/O should have lost to S/K at nationals in 2016? I mean, s/K were the odds on favorite to win, but K/O clearly outclassed them at this event. PCS overmarked or not, Alexa and Chris were not the better team over those two days and that's all that counts. I have never heard much outcry about K/O's victory. I thought it was pretty obvious.....

I don't argue the win for them, Alexa and Chris were way off and skated like they were defending their title. They needed that loss to be as good as they were at Four Continents IMO.

We can't forget that at 4CC and Worlds, after US Nationals, Alexa and Chris completely outclassed Tarah and Danny in every way shape and form. Alexa and Chris were a mess in Boston, and still easily beat Kayne & O'Shea...

US Nationals results don't matter when it comes to our pairs program right now. At all. The international results do and nobody else has made an argument for themselves to be chosen (yet). It's very cut-throat but that's the way it has to be. There's lots of politics/over-hype in US pairs that the international judges will never buy into.

 

[dinakt]

Having one spot really sucks. With only one spot, the team competition makes it matter that much more who gets selected. From here until Nationals is going to mean everything for all of the non-Alexa and Chris pairs.

There are two World spots, which are worth fighting for, great for teams eager to establish themselves for the next quad.
For the Olympics, though, I'll be rooting for Alexa and Chris like a woman possessed. Barring an injury (hopefully not!), they deserve it.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

So in your opinion a clean K/O should have lost to S/K at nationals in 2016? I mean, s/K were the odds on favorite to win, but K/O clearly outclassed them at this event. PCS overmarked or not, Alexa and Chris were not the better team over those two days and that's all that counts. I have never heard much outcry about K/O's victory. I thought it was pretty obvious.....

I do have to agree. Since the GPF that year Scimerim seemed to be going a bit down hill, and it didn't get any better at Boston Nats. Although they had an AWESOME 4CC.....up and down up and down. Maybe Alexa was already having symptoms then?

But no other US team can touch them ATM unless some team has a weapon up their sleeves I don't know about.....

I don't get nervous for their throws, lifts or spins.. I do get a bit nervous for Chris jumps... other than that I have faith in them.

When it comes to international events I think Scimerim will come out ahead even if there is a mistake... the only time I can remember them not was when D&F beat them at the very first SkAm in Chicago 3-4 yrs ago.

Will be GREAT to see US Classic when they will all be there!!!!!!

 

[olympic]

I do have to agree. Since the GPF that year Scimerim seemed to be going a bit down hill, and it didn't get any better at Boston Nats. Although they had anAWESOME 4CC.....up and down up and down. Maybe Alexa was already having symptoms then?

But no other US team can touch them ATM unless some team has a weapon up their sleeves I don't know about.....

I don't get nervous for their throws, lifts or spins.. I do get a bit nervous for Chris jumps... other than that I have faith in them

IMO, the fact that SK/K performed the way they did at Worlds 2017 and scored 200+ w/ minimal prep time and obvious concerns about serious illness / injury show that they have the situation in hand. I would like to see great things from them this coming season and who knows, 2018 may not be the end for them (at least I haven't read about any retirement plans). Aljona should be an inspiration - 33 yrs old and better than ever!

 

[Karpenko]

But no other US team can touch them ATM unless some team has a weapon up their sleeves I don't know about.....

Deanna (and Nate) is fabulous but unless the 3lutzes, 4salchow, and all of their brand new elements start working before Nationals, I'm afraid not. Getting to Worlds this year would be monumental for them, and I wouldn't rule them out for 2022. She's older but she also hasn't had the wear and tear on her body from training all through her 20's...I think they could do it and make the 2022 team. This year is way too soon for them to be the top team IMO.

One great thing about S-K/K is that they're guaranteed 8 points (more or less) every single time they do a split triple twist. Our next best team is around 6 points, so that element alone sums it all up IMO. You only have to worry about the SBS jumps (and occasionally the throws) with them. Everything else is automatic for them, but new elements to C/L and S/B. It's better not to have to worry if our team could botch a lift or split-twist during the Olympics (in this deep field).

 

[Cleo1782]

I do have to agree. Since the GPF that year Scimerim seemed to be going a bit down hill, and it didn't get any better at Boston Nats. Although they had an AWESOME 4CC.....up and down up and down. Maybe Alexa was already having symptoms then?

But no other US team can touch them ATM unless some team has a weapon up their sleeves I don't know about.....

I don't get nervous for their throws, lifts or spins.. I do get a bit nervous for Chris jumps... other than that I have faith in them.

When it comes to international events I think Scimerim will come out ahead even if there is a mistake... the only time I can remember them not was when D&F beat them at the very first SkAm in Chicago 3-4 yrs ago.

Will be GREAT to see US Classic when they will all be there!!!!!!

I was just quoting specifically to the poster about 2016 nationals, where I thought K/O were the clear winners whether or not their PCS were a bit high.

I think Alexa and Chris have done decently internationally and are the early front runners for the Olympics, but then again I wouldn't have thought certain couples that made it to the Olympics would have the last few quads so who knows? I don't think any US team has a truly realistic chance at a medal at the Games, so it really is down to who is the most effective for the team event, IMO. With the national champion not being guaranteed a spot, it will really be about how the fall goes with these teams as well as Nationals. I feel like there is still a lot of potential in most of the US teams.

Unfortunately several top pairs have struggled with major injury the last few seasons so I just hope everyone is healthy and ready to compete. I hope all the teams this year will continue on injury free and make it an exciting year for US pairs

 

[Spiralgraph]

I agree with Cleo. And I hope that all USA teams don't think that the Olympics spot is already taken by the Knierems. If it is why should any of the other teams bother with improving or even competing? The world championships is important, but in an Olympic year, going to the Olympics is the goal for most teams; Worlds might be considered a consolation prize.

Let the season begin and we'll see what happens. I'd like to see more head to head competitions among the top US teams. If Alexa and Chris come out on top, good for them and the can go into the Olympics with confidence. If they go to the Olympics not as the National champs or having been defeated by C/L or K/O or C/T etc. in other competitions there'll be a lot of anxiety over that team medal.

 

[Karpenko]

I agree with Cleo. And I hope that all USA teams don't think that the Olympics spot is already taken by the Knierems. If it is why should any of the other teams bother with improving or even competing? The world championships is important, but in an Olympic year, going to the Olympics is the goal for most teams; Worlds might be considered a consolation prize.

Because none of them have ever defeated the Knierims before internationally and always flub things up in their own right.

This is one of those extremely rare cases where the other pairs would be ignorant to think they have a shot based on what's gone down the past 3 seasons, or if they're only in their second season competing Pairs together (when people like Aljona have been competing Pairs for 20 years).

They've all had plenty of shots to overtake the Knierims and they didn't step up and do it. If they can somehow be beaten, then good for that team, but your "why bother" logic comes off more whiny when you consider what's gone down the past four years IMO. It is what it is, none of our other pairs have come through when they needed to. The only way it'll be fair for another team to go is if they start posting huge numbers internationally in the next 3 months.

I'm done you get it by now I want them to go. (And they completely deserve it!)

 

[Dobre]

They've all had plenty of shots to overtake the Knierims and they didn't step up and do it.

There really haven't been many recent head-to-heads. Two of the top U.S. teams were brand new last season, when the Knierims only skated two events. Denney & Frazier were out with serious injury the season before that, and Kayne & O'Shea were injured and withdrew from Nationals last year. (And, of course, the #2 team from U.S. Nationals was not invited to any of the post-season competitions in which SK&K competed).

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Lets not forget its Because of the Knierims were even sending 2 teams to the Worlds in the first place.

Unless there is major injury I don't know how Knierims wont be the Oly and World headliner for USA.

I think D&F, C&T, C&L, K&O and S-D&B would all have to have major upgrades to get that honorary title. But like others say...ice is slippery!

Im a bit in awe what Knierims were able to accomplish last year with nothing under their belt for the season.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

Because none of them have ever defeated the Knierims before internationally and always flub things up in their own right.

K/O beat them at 2014 4CC.