U.S. Men in 2017 - articles & latest news

[skateboy]

I've read posts from a number of FSUers suggesting that Jason should run, not walk, to Frank Carroll to solidify his quads and 3A.

Umm... why? It's not as if Denis Ten has the most consistent jumps. Evan Lysacek's 3A was pretty sketchy as well.

I know Frank is a fine coach, but I don't get why fans assume he would be some kind of magic fix for Jason.

 

[pinky166]

I have a sneaky feeling Jason is dealing with some kind of injury and trying to keep it quiet. These mistakes are unusual and something seems off. Hopefully it’s just nerves and he shakes them off soon, way too many injuries this season already.

 

[wickedwitch]

I've read posts from a number of FSUers suggesting that Jason should run, not walk, to Frank Carroll to solidify his quads and 3A.

Umm... why? It's not as if Denis Ten has the most consistent jumps. Evan Lysacek's 3A was pretty sketchy as well.

I know Frank is a fine coach, but I don't get why fans assume he would be some kind of magic fix for Jason.

Jason's jumps looked the best after working with Frank, particularly the quad and the 3A.

 

[Marco]

In case people don't realize, Nathan is a shoo in. His SB is nearly 30 points above the next US man (Adam).

Adam with full medal streaks in fall international and GPs for two consecutive seasons is around 70% in and will be in if he repeats any free skate he has done this season at the GPs at Nationals. I don't want to jinx him but he hasn't missed a certain nemesis jump all season.

Jason, Max and Vincent are next in line - they all have their medals this season and last but also their faltering moments, and if Nathan and Adam perform, the final spot will come down to Nationals. If all three are clean, I think the placements for 3rd through 5th will be Jason, Vincent and Max in that order, with Jason having the PCS and GOE edge and Vincent having the base value edge. However, I have doubts on whether Jason can be clean at Nationals.

All things considered, my bet for the team is Nathan, Adam and Vincent.

 

[olympic]

@Marco and @DimaToe - Interesting that you come to the same conclusion: Chen, Rippon, Zhou. I agree on Chen and Rippon, but think it's still Brown w/ Aaron as the spoiler. Still, I wouldn't mind seeing Zhou being on an Olympic team because 1) He is a big part of the future; and 2) Chen could use a quad rival to keep him from hitting a plateau

 

[Tavi]

I've read posts from a number of FSUers suggesting that Jason should run, not walk, to Frank Carroll to solidify his quads and 3A.

Umm... why? It's not as if Denis Ten has the most consistent jumps. Evan Lysacek's 3A was pretty sketchy as well.

I know Frank is a fine coach, but I don't get why fans assume he would be some kind of magic fix for Jason.

He worked with Frank several times last year. There was a noticeable improvement in the quality and consistency of his 3A - his GOE climbed noticeably. His 4T was also better (remember Skate America?). Frank also improved the precision and clarity of his movement and line, and I think there are a few places in this year’s FS that could benefit from that.

I’m actually beginning to wonder how much his current 3A issues are a result of anger / frustration with the quad. As talented, hardworking, and competitive as he is, it must be really tough for him to accept that he can’t simply will them into consistency.

 

[vesperholly]

Still, I wouldn't mind seeing Zhou being on an Olympic team because 1) He is a big part of the future

Ehhh ... I am not a fan of the "future" argument. Who's to say how Zhou will progress? Maybe he'll be fantastic, maybe he'll never recover from his growth spurt and will fade away.

 

[Mrs. P]

Ehhh ... I am not a fan of the "future" argument. Who's to say how Zhou will progress? Maybe he'll be fantastic, maybe he'll never recover from his growth spurt and will fade away.

See Polina Edmunds as an example of this. I'm glad that Polina got to go to Sochi because of two great performances at Nationals cause the things people expected for her future didn't really pan out (although I think she can actually come back..but just speaking of what we've seen in the last four years). Polina was just as driven and ambitious as Vincent too.

To an extent Jason was the same way. A lot of people used the "future" argument with him too four years ago -- but like Polina he turned in two great performances at Nationals. Again, a lot of unexpected injuries and some stops and starts. Again, not saying that he won't recover, but just that it's a slippery slope to predict stuff.

 

[flyingsit]

I'm willing to bet that Krasznohon will be at 4CC this year.

 

[Vagabond]

Krasnozhon's SB is more than twenty points higher than that of the next-highest scoring U.S. skater eligible for World Juniiors, i.e., Pulkinen. I think the USFSA wants to maximize its entries for next season's JGP will send Krasnozhon to Junior Worlds unless Pulkinen drastically increases his technical content at Nationals.

 

[BittyBug]

I’m actually beginning to wonder how much his current 3A issues are a result of anger / frustration with the quad. As talented, hardworking, and competitive as he is, it must be really tough for him to accept that he can’t simply will them into consistency.

I don't know about anger, but working on quads can affect the timing of other jumps, so it is quite possible that Brown's pursuit of a 4T has been at the expense of his 3A. (Of course, it could very well be entirely different issues....)

 

[Mrs. P]

Krasnozhon's SB is more than twenty points higher than that of the next-highest scoring U.S. skater eligible for World Juniiors, i.e., Pulkinen. I think the USFSA wants to maximize its entries for next season's JGP will send Krasnozhon to Junior Worlds unless Pulkinen drastically increases his technical content at Nationals.

I think given the schedule of 4CC/Jr. Worlds, I think it's realistic for Alexei to go to both. Junior Worlds isn't until March 5-11, more than a month from 4CC, which is Jan. 22-28.

I don't know about anger, but working on quads can affect the timing of other jumps, so it is quite possible that Brown's pursuit of a 4T has been at the expense of his 3A. (Of course, it could very well be entirely different issues....)

Yep. When he was working on his 3A toward the later part of his junior career, he was getting URs (and flutzing calls) on his other jumps, even when he wasn't attempting the 3A. http://www.isuresults.com/results/jgpfra2012/jgpfra2012_JuniorMen_FS_Scores.pdf
http://www.isuresults.com/results/jgptur2012/jgptur2012_JuniorMen_FS_Scores.pdf

Adam too, had had various issues with his 3Z, which is typically his money jump, including UR-ing it at GPF short program and I think this is very much tied to his work on the 4Z.

 

[Tavi]

The thing is, at the beginning of last season, except when he was injured, Jason was putting the 4T into both programs at every competition; it improved pretty quickly from << / fall to rotated / fall to what we saw at Skate America - called < but stood up. At the same time, his 3As were really solid - if I recall he had plus GOE on all of them except 1 (he popped it). That’s not to say things couldn’t be different this year, though.

 

[vesperholly]

Adam too, had had various issues with his 3Z, which is typically his money jump, including UR-ing it at GPF short program and I think this is very much tied to his work on the 4Z.

He hasn't had URs on the 3lutz in ages, and he's been working on the 4lutz since like 2013. I think the UR at GPF is the dislocated shoulder issue cropping up.

 

[Mrs. P]

He hasn't had URs on the 3lutz in ages, and he's been working on the 4lutz since like 2013. I think the UR at GPF is the dislocated shoulder issue cropping up.

Good poing. I do think the jump has had some little issues, if not UR, since he started working on the 3Z. I don't think it's a huge concern but I do feel like it did affect his 3Z at times.

The thing is, at the beginning of last season, except when he was injured, Jason was putting the 4T into both programs at every competition; it improved pretty quickly from << / fall to rotated / fall to what we saw at Skate America - called < but stood up. At the same time, his 3As were really solid - if I recall he had plus GOE on all of them except 1 (he popped it). That’s not to say things couldn’t be different this year, though.

I do think the mental issues could lead into timing issues. A lot of his errors this year seem to be hesitation/in-decision, such as the 3A in the GPF FS.

 

[Tavi]

I do think the mental issues could lead into timing issues. A lot of his errors this year seem to be hesitation/in-decision, such as the 3A in the GPF FS.

I agree.

 

[misskarne]

I think it will be Chen, Zhou, Rippon

All things considered, my bet for the team is Nathan, Adam and Vincent.

Justification for this please since Max comprehensively outskated Vincent at both head-to-head outings? ("the future" and "tech potential" don't really justify it).

 

[Vagabond]

Justification for this please since Max comprehensively outskated Vincent at both head-to-head outings? ("the future" and "tech potential" don't really justify it).

I know you've done your best to blot the results of last season's U.S. Nationals out of your mind, but here's a reminder.

1 Nathan Chen 318.47 1 106.39 1 212.08
2 Vincent Zhou 263.03 3 87.85 2 175.18
3 Jason Brown 254.23 4 79.23 3 175.00
4 Grant Hochstein 248.31 5 79.10 4 169.21
5 Ross Miner 240.34 2 88.67 8 151.67
6 Alexander Johnson 233.39 9 75.19 5 158.20
7 Timothy Dolensky 228.76 6 78.86 9 149.90
8 Sean Rabbitt 228.02 11 73.41 7 154.61
9 Max Aaron 227.80 12 72.54 6 155.26

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_U.S._Figure_Skating_Championships#Senior_men



My guess is that the Top Three will be Chen, Rippon, and Brown, but we shall see.

 

[jlai]

Did anyone have Polina in the top 2 in 2014? But she skated lights out and got on the team. Her season was solid but not stellar before then.
Everyone who had a decent season could pull a Polina.

But because of body ofwork, those who aren't having a good season are basically out (e.g. Miner, Hochstein, etc)

 

[toddlj]

And most people didn't have Vincent in their top two last year either...

 

[Tavi]

Did anyone have Polina in the top 2 in 2014? But she skated lights out and got on the team. Her season was solid but not stellar before then.
Everyone who had a decent season could pull a Polina.

But because of body ofwork, those who aren't having a good season are basically out (e.g. Miner, Hochstein, etc)

I’m probably repeating myself, but I think it’s the team event that makes the difference. If it were just a question of individual medals, with rare exceptions, the selection committee would probably just send the top finishers at Nats. If USFS cares about the team event, they have to consider strategy. You need a reliably high scoring guy besides Nathan, and right now that looks like Adam.

 

[jlai]

Considering Adam had underrotated at least once in the short and long in Japan, I wouldn't call him reliably high scoring enough to warrant him being on the team if he isn't top 3 at San Jose.

 

[vesperholly]

Considering Adam had underrotated at least once in the short and long in Japan, I wouldn't call him reliably high scoring enough to warrant him being on the team if he isn't top 3 at San Jose.

Ooh, a few URs in one competition. Big deal. He has two GP silvers, beat Jason at the GPF and he's seventh on this season's best scores list. He's had a consistent season and the best scores all season long of US men who are not Chen:

Rippon: 250, 262, 266, 254
Zhou: 250, 256, 222
Aaron: 209, 262, 259, 237
Brown: 259, 261, 246, 254

 

[Willin]

The averages on skatingscores.com for the US men in 2017 are as follows:
1. Nathan - 282.81
2. Adam - 258.16
3. Jason - 255.20
4. Max - 252.82
5. Vincent - 242.96

The average placement (again, from skatingscores.com) for 2017 competitions are as follows.
1. Nathan - 1.83*
2. Adam - 3
3. Max - 4
4. Jason - 4.5
5. Vincent - 5

It should be noted that Nathan and Jason both competed in 6 competitions this year, as opposed to Adam/Max/Vincent's three. This has artificially lowered Nathan & Jason's placements because they competed at World's last spring and the GPF this year (Both with deeper fields than at an average GP or CS). To adjust for that, here is a comparison of the average placements of the three types of competition all five had in common: 2 GPs and one CS.
1. Nathan - 1
2. Adam - 2.33
3. Jason - 2.67
4. Max - 4
5. Vincent - 5

Despite Vincent's 2nd at Nationals last year, this seems to suggest that he's further back from Aaron/Brown in the running for that third spot than some on this forum think he is. Sure, he finished 2nd at Nationals, but I think we all know by now that US Nationals has wonky scoring and weird results. In the competitions with international judging panels comprised of international-rated judges (not all US National judges are rated to judge internationally, even for the Senior level competitions), he's averaged about 10 points lower than the next lowest average of the pack vying for Olympic spots. He's also last place in average placement by .5 in the unadjusted rankings and a whole place in the adjusted rankings. I know Vincent may be the future, but I just don't think he's good enough right now to justify sending to the Olympics.

 

[kwanette]

He hasn't had URs on the 3lutz in ages, and he's been working on the 4lutz since like 2013. I think the UR at GPF is the dislocated shoulder issue cropping up.

Quite possibly not doing the Rippon Lutz because of the shoulder issue?

 

[Tavi]

Considering Adam had underrotated at least once in the short and long in Japan, I wouldn't call him reliably high scoring enough to warrant him being on the team if he isn't top 3 at San Jose.

What is reliably high scoring enough for you - Nathan level?

Believe it or not, I’m not an Adam uber. But his worst scores on the GPF (168.14 FS/254.33) came at the final, and they weren’t that bad. His average scores on the GP this season are 174.19 FS / 260.92.

I no idea what the selection committee will do. But if they're putting together an Olympic team in part to try to win a medal, I would guess they will at least consider scoring trends.

 

[jlai]

Ooh, a few URs in one competition. Big deal. He has two GP silvers, beat Jason at the GPF and he's seventh on this season's best scores list. He's had a consistent season and the best scores all season long of US men who are not Chen:

Rippon: 250, 262, 266, 254
Zhou: 250, 256, 222
Aaron: 209, 262, 259, 237
Brown: 259, 261, 246, 254

That doesn't mean USFS will bump any skaters should Adam place outside top 3. Ashley had a better body of work and was a gpf medalist in 2014 and people still griped endless about her selection to the team. I am not sure USFS will want to go through all that again for someone with less credentials

I think USFS will try to make this as non controversial as possible even if they may be a bit generous to those they prefer in judging.

 

[jlai]

What is reliably high scoring enough for you - Nathan level?

Believe it or not, I’m not an Adam uber. But his worst scores on the GPF (168.14 FS/254.33) came at the final, and they weren’t that bad. His average scores on the GP this season are 174.19 FS / 260.92.

I no idea what the selection committee will do. But if they're putting together an Olympic team in part to try to win a medal, I would guess they will at least consider scoring trends.

It is not about what is reliable for me. It is about how good a skater has to be internationally before USFS is willing to stick its neck out and bump someone else should that reliable skater place outside top 3. The thing is you don't know; neither do I. your guess is as good as mine and mine is as good as yours.

 

[Dobre]

I’m probably repeating myself, but I think it’s the team event that makes the difference. If it were just a question of individual medals, with rare exceptions, the selection committee would probably just send the top finishers at Nats. If USFS cares about the team event, they have to consider strategy. You need a reliably high scoring guy besides Nathan, and right now that looks like Adam.

If someone bombs at Nationals, they aren't going to look so hot for the team event.

 

[BittyBug]

I am not sure USFS will want to go through all that again for someone with less credentials

I think USFS will try to make this as non controversial as possible even if they may be a bit generous to those they prefer in judging.

There is ample evidence that USFS doesn't give a rap about what fans think.