There should be about ten available Olympic spots at Nebelhorn: six plus requalfication spots for US, Canada, Korea and France (if placements stay the same). Ice is slippery, but our skater needs to have a double meltdown (all skaters make it to fs) not to qualify a third spot. That said, I'm not sure I would send Vincent on this mission.
Well, there should be
24 spots should be allocated at Worlds. If the SP standings hold, this would be the allocation, which equals 24 exactly:
3 = Japan
2 = USA*, Russia, Italy, China,
1 = Canada*, Korea*, France*, Czech Republic, Latvia, Belarus, Switzerland, Israel, Sweden, Georgia, Ukraine, Mexico, Estonia
The countries with * will be vying for an additional spot from one of the 6 spots available at Nebelhorn.
There are some scenarios that could result in some countries gaining or losing spots (if Rizzo and/or Yan finish 13th or lower while Grassl and/or Jin finish 16th or lower then Italy and/or China would drop to 1 spot), likewise, Russia could gain the chance to compete for a 3rd spot at Nebelhorn if Kolyada or Semenenko move up 1 placement); and Canada, Korea & France could all lose the opportunity to compete for a 2nd spot at Nebelhorn if Messing, Cha or Aymoz finish out of the top 10. And if Brezina and/or Vasiljevs were able to move into the top 10 then the Czech Republic and/or Latvia would gain the opportunity to compete for a 2nd spot at Nebelhorn).
It's possible that there might be only 22 or 23 spots awarded which would mean there are 7 or 8 available at Nebelhorn. I can't see there being 10 up for grabs. It would take some pretty wild fluctuations from the current standings - of course, these are the men we're talking about and there is only a 9.5 point gap between 11th and 23rd. More significantly, there's only a 1.5 point gap between 15th & 19th, and just 4.5 points between between 12th & 19th. All of these guys are capable of really making this very interesting.
