U.S. Ladies [#17]: Heading to Helsinki in a Handbasket

Status
Not open for further replies.

DimaToe

Retired by Frank Carroll
Messages
5,512
When our national champion is placing 12th at a watered down 4CC I don't see the need for the 3rd spot anymore IMO :shuffle:

I would actually like to see how Wagner, Bell, Nagasu, Gold,Chen, and if back Edmunds skate when all of a sudden there are only 2 spots up for grabs.
 

kwanfan1818

RIP D-10
Messages
33,505
From the last thread (#16)

We've seen flashes of brilliance from both Mariah and Karen, so we know they are both capable.

This season's international results for each:

Bell:



SP-61.21 (2017 Four Continents)
SP-60.92 (2016 Skate America)
SP-60.64 (2016 US International Figure Skating Classic)
SP-56.58 (2016 Ondrej Nepela)
SP-55.92 (2016 Tallinn Trophy)

avg:

FS-130.67 (2016 Skate America)
FS-123.58 (2016 US International Figure Skating Classic)
FS-115.89 (2017 Four Continents)
FS-111.77 (2016 Tallinn Trophy)
FS-105.14 (2016 Ondrej Nepela)​

  • Skate America: 191.59
  • US International Figure Skating Classic: 184.22
  • Four Continents: 177.1
  • Tallinn Trophy: 167.69
  • Ondrej Nepela: 161.72

Chen:


SP-58.76 (2016 NHK Trophy)
SP-58.28 (2016 Cup of China)
SP-55.6 (2017 Four Continents)
SP-54.6 (2016 Golden Spin)
SP-51.5 (2016 US International Figure Skating Classic)

FS-121.11 (2016 Cup of China)
FS-119.69 (2016 NHK Trophy)
FS-111.22 (2017 Four Continents)
FS-110.58 (2016 US International Figure Skating Classic)
FS-101.03 (2016 Golden Spin)​

  • Cup of China: 179.39
  • NHK Trophy: 178.45
  • Four Continents: 166.82
  • US International Figure Skating Classic: 162.08
  • Golden Spin: 155.63

Each had USIFSC (bolded) and Four Continents (underlined). Bell had three CS and one GP; Chen had two CS and two GP. Chen has skated more consistently abroad; Bell has averaged higher: 59.05 vs. 55.75 in the SP and 117.41 vs. 112.73 in the FS. The SP gap might not seem that high, but in terms of which group the skater would land in for the FS if they skated that average, that was a one group (first vs. second) difference at 2016 Worlds.


If anything. I think the U.S. has slightly higher odds of going to one spot than maintaining three
To go to one,
  • Have two miss the FS, and the other place lower than 10th
  • Have two make the FS, but place no higher than 16th, and the other place lower than 12th
  • Have the top two skaters place 13th and 15th or lower.
Even for Sochi, Kovtun was the lone Russian man at 2013 Worlds, after Voronov/Gachinski placed 17/18 in Nice the year before. Kovtun was a first-year senior with the full weight of a home Olympics on his shoulders. To go to one, Wagner would have to withdraw or place 13th. Even Czisny/Wagner in 2012 and Csizny and a hiding-an-injury Flatt in 2011, and the post-Olympics Nagasu/Flatt didn't do a Voronov/Gachinski.

Bell's worst international total this year would have placed her 14th at Worlds last year, and her best 10th. Chen's worst score would have put her in 19th and her best in 13th. While my pessimistic side would agree, with Miyahara recovering from injury and Higuchi struggling, and massive pressure on the Japanese Ladies to retain three spots -- Four C's might be a confidence-booster or create a pressure-cooker for Mihara -- and lots of pressure on Euros Ladies and Zijun Li, I think it's more probable that the US would retain three than drop to one. I just wouldn't bet more very much on it.

I think that it's Bell's to capitalize upon. The pressure is on Chen as National Champion, even though she has lost to Bell in two head-to-head competitions.

And only two disciplines can substitute, right?
Under the 2014 rules, yes. They haven't published 2018 yet, but I think they'll be stupid and keep it. It would cost them a maximum of 12 additional pieces of hardware to let there be subs for each discipline, and that's only if only singles disciplines would have been split with two, but an additional two would have added three Dance teams and three Pairs for each medal.
 

pinky166

#allaboutthevoids #teamtrainwreck
Messages
23,110
On the bright side, Mirai not going to Worlds and ending her season on a high probably helps her chances at the Olympics next year unless Karen or Mariah do really great at Worlds. If they don't do so well like people are worried about then Mirai becomes a logical choice for someone to go to the Olympics instead.
 

PDilemma

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,668
Karen says she is having more boot problems on Instagram.

I hope if the problem is not solved, she will withdraw from the World team.

I know that several people who skate have said that boot problems are a very real issue. I am not disputing that. But what is making it so constant and so hard to solve for her? And why would it be a problem again after it was seemingly solved prior to this season?
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
34,432
I think Karen needs to learn that she doesn't have to address her critics and give excuses just because the boot issue was already a heavily commented issue for her last season, and I sort of feel she posted that in order to have people be a bit nicer to her (by people I mean Internet skating fans which I think means she knows what people are saying about her). Tammy should really teach her that she shouldn't feel the need to respond to every criticism posted about her.

It might have been better for her quietly deal with the issue and work on building up towards Helsinki while notifying the USFS and thus the alternate Mirai that she's having boot issues. If the boot problems persist to the point where she doesn't feel she can adequately compete, then she could withdraw in time for Mirai to take over.
 

Carolla5501

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,266
Now that she has put the Boot issue out there I think USFSA would be stupid not to make sure it's solved before worlds. I think at this point she has opened herself up to monitoring

I doubt that her team will have her withdrawal on their own. But if she does not have the right equipment and cannot compete others need to step in and deal with it
 

PDilemma

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,668
Karen said on NBC that she has very flat feet. I guess meaning she has a low arch? It may be particularly difficult for her to find a good-fitting boot.

Thanks. That makes a bit of sense then.

I think Karen needs to learn that she doesn't have to address her critics and give excuses just because the boot issue was already a heavily commented issue for her last season, and I sort of feel she posted that in order to have people be a bit nicer to her (by people I mean Internet skating fans which I think means she knows what people are saying about her). Tammy should really teach her that she shouldn't feel the need to respond to every criticism posted about her.

It might have been better for her quietly deal with the issue and work on building up towards Helsinki while notifying the USFS and thus the alternate Mirai that she's having boot issues. If the boot problems persist to the point where she doesn't feel she can adequately compete, then she could withdraw in time for Mirai to take over.

She actually said it in a message that is thanking people for kind messages and support this week, so I'm not sure it is an excuse or response to critics.
 

Frida80

Well-Known Member
Messages
815
Karen says she is having more boot problems on Instagram.

I hope if the problem is not solved, she will withdraw from the World team.

I know that several people who skate have said that boot problems are a very real issue. I am not disputing that. But what is making it so constant and so hard to solve for her? And why would it be a problem again after it was seemingly solved prior to this season?

I follow Karen so I kinda know what's going on. After nationals she said that after she broke her ankle it made it hard for her to find skates. In her first year senior, she was in excruciating pain while skating and boot manufacturers struggled to find a boot that would fit with her mended foot. Hence the struggle.

This explains that trip she made to her boot maker a week before she left. I was pretty nervous when I saw that pic, because it could only mean two things. Her boots were worn and needed to be replace or she was once again in pain.
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
34,432
I follow Karen so I kinda know what's going on. After nationals she said that after she broke her ankle it made it hard for her to find skates. In her first year senior, she was in excruciating pain while skating and boot manufacturers struggled to find a boot that would fit with her mended foot. Hence the struggle.

This explains that trip she made to her boot maker a week before she left. I was pretty nervous when I saw that pic, because it could only mean two things. Her boots were worn and needed to be replace or she was once again in pain.

Thank you for the background information.
 

shady82

Well-Known Member
Messages
653
When our national champion is placing 12th at a watered down 4CC I don't see the need for the 3rd spot anymore IMO :shuffle:

I would actually like to see how Wagner, Bell, Nagasu, Gold,Chen, and if back Edmunds skate when all of a sudden there are only 2 spots up for grabs.

Based on how things have gone this year, I'd rather see US No. 3 at the Olympics than Chartrand. But because of the rules for three spots + Kaetlyn/Gabby's success, it seems more likely that Canada can get three spots and Alaine will get to go to PC.
 

Skateparent

Member
Messages
35
I follow Karen so I kinda know what's going on. After nationals she said that after she broke her ankle it made it hard for her to find skates. In her first year senior, she was in excruciating pain while skating and boot manufacturers struggled to find a boot that would fit with her mended foot. Hence the struggle.

This explains that trip she made to her boot maker a week before she left. I was pretty nervous when I saw that pic, because it could only mean two things. Her boots were worn and needed to be replace or she was once again in pain.
I think flat arch skaters wear orthotics in the boots to help with using outside edge more effectively. Would it be that she needs to get the right orthotics that fit her feet? There are plenty of qualified orthotists who fabricate for elite skaters. Not sure why she needs specialized boots to solve flat arch issue
 

Frida80

Well-Known Member
Messages
815
I think flat arch skaters wear orthotics in the boots to help with using outside edge more effectively. Would it be that she needs to get the right orthotics that fit her feet? There are plenty of qualified orthotists who fabricate for elite skaters. Not sure why she needs specialized boots to solve flat arch issue

I don't think it's just flat arches, which would be a lot easier to solve. When you have a fracture, the bone grows outside the fracture to men's the break. That means the bones reform the foot, often bigger in some areas than others. Ankles have more bones, so healing from those makes the problem worse. But the fact she is in so much pain make me really concerned. This may go beyond boot issues and is sounding more like surgery.
 

becca

Well-Known Member
Messages
20,329
This is kind of what I think. I have no doubt that boot problems are a real issue. But if they are so bad that you are not going to be able to skate well, maybe you should not compete.

If you decide to compete with a bad injury or a bad boot problem than you need to take responsibility for the poor skate because you chose to compete like that.

Now don't get me wrong I don't think anyone owes me an explanation. But I am more than a bit meh when I hear things like that. Mainly because I don't think those kind of excuses are good for the skater. If you look at some of the greats in the sport you did not hear that stuff.
 
Last edited:

Skateparent

Member
Messages
35
I don't think it's just flat arches, which would be a lot easier to solve. When you have a fracture, the bone grows outside the fracture to men's the break. That means the bones reform the foot, often bigger in some areas than others. Ankles have more bones, so healing from those makes the problem worse. But the fact she is in so much pain make me really concerned. This may go beyond boot issues and is sounding more like surgery.
Ok, thanks for the information.
 

Foolhardy Ham Lint

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,823
There is a very real chance Karen (or Mariah for that matter) may not even be in the top 24 in Helsinki if she skates as poorly as she did at Four Continents.

Sometimes decimal points can separate skaters which skaters make the cut or not.
 

kwanfan1818

RIP D-10
Messages
33,505
Last season, <50 in the SP made the cut.

It's always possible that the rest of the field overachieved and only the US Ladies do worse than ever, but odds are against it.
 

Foolhardy Ham Lint

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,823
Last season, <50 in the SP made the cut.

It's always possible that the rest of the field overachieved and only the US Ladies do worse than ever, but odds are against it.

Nevertheless, I am still worried if they don't skate absolutely clean short programs. Coming in as US National medallists or not, this will also be both Karen's and Mariah's first time on the senior world stage.

If you look at the results from 2016, solid short program who normally average much higher scores such as Joshi Helgesson, Mae Berenice Meite and Nathalie Weinzeirl, didn't make the cut after skating poorly.
 

ssminnow

Active Member
Messages
324
On the bright side, Mirai not going to Worlds and ending her season on a high probably helps her chances at the Olympics next year unless Karen or Mariah do really great at Worlds. If they don't do so well like people are worried about then Mirai becomes a logical choice for someone to go to the Olympics instead.

It seems like a lose-lose situation for Mirai: if Karen/Mariah do really well at Worlds, they cement their status above her for the Olympics team selection. And if they don't, USA is down to 2 (or 1) spots, making it more difficult for Mirai to make the team as well.
 

VGThuy

Well-Known Member
Messages
34,432
It seems like a lose-lose situation for Mirai: if Karen/Mariah do really well at Worlds, they cement their status above her for the Olympics team selection. And if they don't, USA is down to 2 (or 1) spots, making it more difficult for Mirai to make the team as well.

Yeah but if they skate badly, even with 2 spots, Mirai's stock rises significantly. She still has to deliver all of next season and at Nationals no matter what though.
 

berthesghost

Well-Known Member
Messages
6,201
Absolutely.

I know that it is tempting for skaters to pop into these forums and start reading the posts, but nothing good can come from this. If they are retired that is one thing ;) and, even then, I would not recommend it.
Surely you're not suggesting that all the ott doom and gloom of these threads might not be interesting to them :lol:

I almost can't wait for "US ladies #18: WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!" :p
 

kwanatic

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,740
Surely you're not suggesting that all the ott doom and gloom of these threads might not be interesting to them :lol:

I almost can't wait for "US ladies #18: WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!" :p

If Worlds goes the way we're thinking it's going to go, the title should be "US Ladies #18: And Then There Were Two..." :rollin:

Oh and +3 to @Vagabond for the current title. Genius! :cheer2:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users who are viewing this thread

Top
Do Not Sell My Personal Information