The Dance Hall 5: Ice Dance Fans 2017-2018

[teacakes]

OK. Thanks. Here is how they come up with the points.
http://www.isu.org/communications/1625-1629-world-standing-sandp-id/file

Okay, thank you. Mathematics is not my strong point so I'm just gonna

Beside this quad having seen the rising of P/C, it has been ruthless to W/P... Twice they were set to win worlds, twice they failed.

Also, Chock/Bates and S/S have been the only team to qualify for the GPF the past four years. P/C would be in this group, if not for injury.

 

[Anyasnake]

Looking back, this will probably be my favorite quad in ice dance.

This is my favourite by far, it is/was so unpredictable.
An unknown team became World Champs the year after Sochi.
Everyone dumped Shibs and they came back with "Fix You" and took silver.
V/M came back and I think it pushed the other teams to work way harder.
However, WeaPo were really the ones not benefitting from any of these situations. From winning GPF twice, to missing it twice in a row...

 

[VGThuy]

With that said though W/P still managed to place 4th at Worlds last year and were extremely close to medaling so it’s still within their power to be competitive for a medal going by the judges’ scores. They won silver over a rising and fan fave H/D at Skate Canada and probably would have given C/B a run for their money if they didn’t take themselves out of contention in the SD at IdF and if Kaitlyn wasn’t suffering a rib injury.

 

[her grace]

Ice dance should be about the performance at one particular event. I see it that way.
My first post meant that not anybody see it that way, obviously, and is still very very true. But again, I'm no judge.

EDIT : take the Italian case. I feel like when I watch CL and G/F that G/F on the tech outskate C/L sometimes (step sequences, lifts, etc). Why aren't they getting a better tech score at least ? Do you have to "wait for your turn" ? You kind of have to, because unfortunately it works that way. But it shouldn't.

For C/L v. G/F, part of it is probably "wait your turn." Part of it is that G/F haven't had a unique, interesting program. And part of it is that they don't have that performance quality and charisma that C/L have. Like the other disciplines, charm and panache can at least partially make up for a skating skills deficit, e.g., Radionova, Wagner, Ge.

 

[VGThuy]

I mean we've had Olympic champions and medalists that beat superior teams just based on charisma and politicking. That's just ice dance.

 

[firstflight]

For C/L v. G/F, part of it is probably "wait your turn." Part of it is that G/F haven't had a unique, interesting program. And part of it is that they don't have that performance quality and charisma that C/L have. Like the other disciplines, charm and panache can at least partially make up for a skating skills deficit, e.g., Radionova, Wagner, Ge.

But that's always up to the taste of the viewer. I've read multiple people here who adore their FD this season.

 

[levineismine]

With that said though W/P still managed to place 4th at Worlds last year and were extremely close to medaling so it’s still within their power to be competitive for a medal going by the judges’ scores. They won silver over a rising and fan fave H/D at Skate Canada and probably would have given C/B a run for their money if they didn’t take themselves out of contention in the SD at IdF and if Kaitlyn wasn’t suffering a rib injury.

It may be too soon to speak, but I think bronze will go to a US team (the one winning nationals, most likely the Shibs).
W/P are still getting good PCS (at least at skate Canada, but it was the home GP), but I see unlikely that they will hit all the technical, especially with recurring twizzles issues.
I can't say enough how much I want them to be at the team event and at least have a medal there.

 

[millyskate]

Uncounsciously, you have your ideas about each teams I guess (which is not always a good thing). I'll take both P/C and V/M who managed to reach the top without "waiting" with obvious very good skating skills and great performances. Especially P/C because they had a 13th place finish at worlds and 15th at Euros previously. Both these teams actually had (in 2014-2015 and 2007-2008 respectively) an incredible vehicle : Mozart and Umbrellas of Cherbourg. I'd say that both these FD are iconic.
That's why I always think that if Step/Bukin had one, they could be in the top 5 already (even if a lot of you disagree ).
What could we do to change that then ? Also, I think the flag under your name (without any politicking or anything) plays a part.

I agree about the importance of a memorable program. I was really hoping the judges would dare to put Stepanova and Bukin in 2nd in Grenoble, because they really outskated C&B and W&P by a significant way there. It says something a little bit sad about the system when Bukin was overjoyed at 3rd, when his team clearly deserved the silver.

 

[marbri]

With Team Canada looking pretty weak at this point of the season and the men being a huge ? mark I think the case for W/P to share the ice dance spot with V/M grows weaker as the season goes by. They will need V/M's points more than ever.

 

[Anyasnake]

It may be too soon to speak, but I think bronze will go to a US team (the one winning nationals, most likely the Shibs).
W/P are still getting good PCS (at least at skate Canada, but it was the home GP), but I see unlikely that they will hit all the technical, especially with recurring twizzles issues.
I can't say enough how much I want them to be at the team event and at least have a medal there.

I agree and I'll go further : I think 3 & 4 might be US, with a big shot for the 5th place too.
If V/M have the possibility, they said they'll do the whole team event. Anyway if CAN wants the gold they have no choice, it's a bit trickier because they are the faves along with Russia but there is the Patrick Chan factor. But CAN won't get the team gold without V/M, it's their biggest strength by far.

 

[levineismine]

With Team Canada looking pretty weak at this point of the season and the men being a huge ? mark I think the case for W/P to share the ice dance spot with V/M grows weaker as the season goes by. They will need V/M's points more than ever.

on the other hand, team Canada may not have a strong second skater to use in the other disciplines?
e.g. they may have to use Chan for both segments if none of the other men steps it up. Daleman has looked ok but not brilliant, and the other pairs after D/R aren't doing super well either.

I guess it also depends on which other Countries they think can make the cut for the free skate? If China doesn't for example, Canada loses strong competitors in pairs but not in dance. W/P or V/M will both beat the chinese ice dance team, but D/R are the only ones to have a chance to beat the Chinese pair teams. Same for Russia, W/P can beat B/S, but Chan would be the only man who can beat Kolyada, and D/R can have a chance to beat the pairs teams.
The problem is more with the US and with France (if they make the FS), both can be beat by V/M but not W/P.
So one strategy could be have W/P do the FD, but they have to decide before knowing which Countries will make the cut I believe.

Eta: this is assuming that the rules for the team event are the same and only the top 5 teams advance to the FS

 

[GreenGan]

I mean we've had Olympic champions and medalists that beat superior teams just based on charisma and politicking. That's just ice dance.

What team(s?) do you have in mind ? (I love some history lesson about past ice dance )

It says something a little bit sad about the system when Bukin was overjoyed at 3rd, when his team clearly deserved the silver.

Hmm. Most of us agree here to say that S/B are making and have made progress, but isn't that a little too early to say that they deserve to be ahead of C/B and W/P ? Even in this event ? Most of us weren't there and all we have to forge our opinion on is the video. In live, the speed power, ice coverage and everything, especially at the judge place, is clearer.
We have an habit of dissing out the judges' work but they actually have read the book of rules and are more knowledgable than most -if not any- of us here.

Yes PCS take their time to go up, even though we have counter example. But maybe we could incorporate in our hypothesis that sometimes judges do get the right score.

 

[Debbie S]

Do you know how they add up the points by any chance? I added up P/C's and it came to the total on the ranking, but B/S's points, who are #2, were higher.

OK. Thanks. Here is how they come up with the points.
http://www.isu.org/communications/1625-1629-world-standing-sandp-id/file

The doc seems to indicate that the points are simply added. But C/B's points don't add up, either. There must be some sort of factoring involved, but P/C's points do add up so I have no idea. The scores from 2 seasons ago are factored at 70% of full value, but it looks like that has already been done for the point amounts listed.

@kwanfan1818 any insight on this?

 

[mollymgr]

For B/S, the total comes out to 4450. The ISU calculated a total 3874 which is 576 less than all their comps. It looks like they are not counting the scores of 324 and 252 (total of 576) from their second bests for some reason.

ETA: For C/B it is the same way. They only counted the highest(second best score) from the GP and Final column.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Only the highest two/three scores from championships and the highest four/six scores from GP/GPF and International Competitions are counted. See section 2.3 of the linked Communication 1629.

Weaver/Poje-3510:

• Championship Points: 875+551=1426. No score to drop, since there have been no 2017-18 championships or Olympics to date.
  • Assuming they're not going to 4C's but will go to the Olympics, if they earn more than 551 points at the Olympics (8th or higher), 551 will be dropped, and Olympics points added.
• GP/GPF Points: 560+360+360+324=1604. The two lowest, 292 and 280, are dropped.
  • Were W/P to make it from the GPF alternates list to GPF, they'd drop the 324 and add in GPF points (472-800) ETA: to replace the 292 in the 2017-18 season.
• Internationals Points: 270+210=480. Nothing to drop.
  • Were they to do any internationals between now and Worlds, they could earn points for up to two, and incremental points for as many as they could earn after the four that count.

1426+1604+480=3510.

 

[millyskate]

What team(s?) do you have in mind ? (I love some history lesson about past ice dance )


Hmm. Most of us agree here to say that S/B are making and have made progress, but isn't that a little too early to say that they deserve to be ahead of C/B and W/P ? Even in this event ? Most of us weren't there and all we have to forge our opinion on is the video. In live, the speed power, ice coverage and everything, especially at the judge place, is clearer.
We have an habit of dissing out the judges' work but they actually have read the book of rules and are more knowledgable than most -if not any- of us here.

Yes PCS take their time to go up, even though we have counter example. But maybe we could incorporate in our hypothesis that sometimes judges do get the right score.

I was there - and precisely for that reason to me it really didn't seem close, this time round. I havn't heard anyone who was present disagree so far... but I haven't discussed it with everyone either.

 

[GreenGan]

I was there - and precisely for that reason to me it really didn't seem close, this time round. I havn't heard anyone who was present disagree so far... but I haven't discussed it with everyone either.

Well then thanks for your impression on the event. And... I guess should have incorporated in my opinion that you could have been there too xD.

 

[millyskate]

Well then thanks for your impression on the event. And... I guess should have incorporated in my opinion that you could have been there too xD.

In Boston Worlds, I was really impressed with the top 8 teams. It felt the case for silver and bronze could have been made for many different teams, and I trusted the technical expertise of the panel to sort the teams out.
In Helsinki, I wasn't so impressed with everyone as several teams skated imperfect programs, but felt Hubbell and Donohue were doing great until the infamous fall.

In Grenoble, to me it felt like C&B and W&P were less polished, less fast, less ambitious and just generally not on the same level as Stepanova and Bukin at this stage of the season. Stepanova and Bukin seemed like they'd arrived at the very highest level, and were entering their prime - fast, technically precise and committed to their programs.
I'm not a technical dance expert at all, but gain a slightly better understanding of the levels and criteria with every passing season. I may be wrong

 

[Dobre]

Catching up on this thread, and I've skimmed through a bunch of comments so my apologies if any of these responses repeat someone else's answers.

GPF :

1.Papadakis/Cizeron
2.Virtue/Moir
3.Shibutani/Shibutani
4.Chock/Bates
5.Hubbell/Donohue
6.Cappellini/Lanotte

Does anyone know how the starting order for the SD is decided? A draw between the 3 lower/3 higher teams ? Or simply reversed?

Nope. Don't know for sure. I believe we are back to the bottom three qualifiers in the first group & top three qualifiers in the last group for the GPF order, and I guess I had been assuming, in reverse order of qualification because the SDs for all the regular GPs have been in reverse order of world standings rather than drawn randomly in groups; but I haven't actually read the "reverse-order" bit regarding the GPF anywhere. I don't believe anyone has answered this question yet?

TaT has a lot of pull.

Tat does not have to have pull. She has eyes in her head. My guess is that she is familiar enough with the players that she saw--long before most people were willing to give her words too much credence--that Nikita & Elena register higher on the hot-mess-o-meter within their personal lives than Stepanova & Bukin. This doesn't necessarily mean that S&K won't defeat S&B at Europeans. Though, even if S&K do so, if you were the Russian Federation . . . which team would you send?

Looking at the World Standings is interesting. Particularly the top ten. Do we know how the Olympic draw will be done yet?

Yes. There is a whole thread on it from a while ago, with kwanfan's very exact explanation. But the somewhat simplified explanation is that the bottom half of the Olympic qualifying athletes on the 3-year World Standings list go up during the first half of the Olympic short dance start order and the top half go up during the second half of the Olympic short dance start order. However, starting positions are drawn randomly within each half. So . . . it doesn't matter if you are ranked #1 or #9 on the 3-year World Standings list, as long as you are in the top half among the athletes competing, you will be in the same random draw for the final groups in the SD at the Olympics.

Some fans, of course, will not remember this and will complain about the Olympic start orders as soon as we see them--but they should realize that there is no way the World Standings lists will be representative at that point in time, with all the top European teams having loads of points from Euros and the top 4CC teams likely not attending Four Continents to earn comparable scores.

Believe it's been updated, but the Shib's didn't do any B's which hurts them in the point standings. Monday was the 27th...

Yes, skipping the senior B events last season & this season hurts the Shibs' overall WS score; but for clarification's sake, the Shibs' overall score didn't update at all for SA because they already had the full number of counting scores from the past two seasons that were equal or superior to their points for the SA win. The win at SA this season does help them with regard to next season, provided they compete; but it doesn't alter their current placement for this season.

However, as mentioned above, if the Shibs stay among the top half of the Olympic qualifiers, they will be in the same random SD draw for the Olympics as all the teams above them on the 3-year WS list.

I mean we've had Olympic champions and medalists that beat superior teams just based on charisma and politicking. That's just ice dance.

People like to throw this accusation around regarding dance, but they don't agree about which teams were the "superior" ones and which ones won on "politicking." So the argument doesn't hold up very well under a microscope. Start naming names, and people will disagree.

And why shouldn't charisma make a team superior? Charisma often comes from performance quality and interpretation.

It's very dull and generic... That music surely doesn't help!

I disagree strongly. The Shibs' FD is the most personal one I have seen this season. But I can't write my essay about it tonight. Must sleep.

 

[VGThuy]

I think there’s some consensus for some placements being a product of more than what was put out there on the ice but I foresee you disagreeing if I name names so I’ll just leave it. I will say you know what I mean when I say charisma making some ignore some real technical issues and thus another team may be ranked lower. This is a sport about skating first after all and I stick by my comment that some members of some teams were very damn lucky to get the medals they did with their skating skills.

Anyway, we have a history of politicking, deal making (often times they don’t feel the need to hide it), and “waiting one’s turn” being accepted facts by those in the sport and those who are some of the biggest fans. Of course those two things are never the whole story and it’s more complicated than that (some times there are valid reasons why a team has to wait as they improve with time and experience), but we know it’s a part of it and ice dance is particularly vulnerable since its results are almost completely reliant on the judges and now tech panel compared to the other disciplines where there are jumps and base value differences put some of the power in the skater’s hands. That’s why some ice dancers leave the sport incredibly bitter and some became bitter as they were competing as they didn’t understand where the results were really coming from some times.

 

[Bigbird]

With Team Canada looking pretty weak at this point of the season and the men being a huge ? mark I think the case for W/P to share the ice dance spot with V/M grows weaker as the season goes by. They will need V/M's points more than ever.

Yes, but what is more important, a team medal or personal gold? V/M are no longer teenagers, they've already won a team medal. P/C are young and hungry, just as they were in Vancouver. It would be better to share the team programs with W/P and thus conserve their energies for the individual event. Is a second French ID team going to the OG?

 

[Lara111]

I think there’s some consensus for some placements being a product of more than what was put out there on the ice but I foresee you disagreeing if I name names so I’ll just leave it. I will say you know what I mean when I say charisma making some ignore some real technical issues and thus another team may be ranked lower. This is a sport about skating first after all and I stick by my comment that some members of some teams were very damn lucky to get the medals they did with their skating skills.

Anyway, we have a history of politicking, deal making (often times they don’t feel the need to hide it), and “waiting one’s turn” being accepted facts by those in the sport and those who are some of the biggest fans. Of course those two things are never the whole story and it’s more complicated than that (some times there are valid reasons why a team has to wait as they improve with time and experience), but we know it’s a part of it and ice dance is particularly vulnerable since its results are almost completely reliant on the judges and now tech panel compared to the other disciplines where there are jumps and base value differences put some of the power in the skater’s hands. That’s why some ice dancers leave the sport incredibly bitter and some became bitter as they were competing as they didn’t understand where the results were really coming from some times.

I agree with all of the above. It is even worse when it happens at Junior and lower levels (and it happens all the time). US loses some potentially good talent.

 

[supergirl573]

V/M are doing both segments of the team event. It's why they wanted CoC so they could practice in back to back weeks.

 

[thvu]

V/M are doing both segments of the team event. It's why they wanted CoC so they could practice in back to back weeks.

V&M skated at NHK, not CoC. I'm pretty sure that as reigning World Champs, they got first pick of their GP events.

 

[chantilly]

I think the team event should go after the individual.
I feel the skaters would be far more relaxed and be in the mood oh having more fun.
And if they had a bad individual event then they would have an opportunity to regroup and hopefully take advantage of a second chance.

 

[Sylvia]

V/M are doing both segments of the team event.

Do you have a source link?

 

[mollymgr]

I think the team event should go after the individual.
I feel the skaters would be far more relaxed and be in the mood oh having more fun.
And if they had a bad individual event then they would have an opportunity to regroup and hopefully take advantage of a second chance.

It can go both ways though. The team event being first can actually help in getting a good feel of the atmosphere, getting used to the ice, audience etc. Hopefully, the coaches have planned well to make sure their team peaks at the individual event.
But that said, I don't like the idea of a team event.

 

[irena]

Do you have a source link?

I can not find the source now but there was a video interview where Scott said it clearly that they are doing both team events. I even think he said it on several different interviews, so obviously it is long ago decided.

 

[chapis]

There is no reason to V/M don´t skate both segments if they wish do it. They are safest bet, W/P never will get that kind of scores.

 

[MsZem]

I think the team event should go after the individual.
I feel the skaters would be far more relaxed and be in the mood oh having more fun.
And if they had a bad individual event then they would have an opportunity to regroup and hopefully take advantage of a second chance.

Do tell that to NBC, which basically dictates the schedule for all things Olympic so that Americans can watch the US ladies last (and everything live during US prime time hours).

I agree, of course, that the team event should be last.