Ross Miner Out Of Olympic Team (OFFICIAL)

[becca]

@vesperholly Fabulous style

. . . I do think American figure skating could use a little more of that to maintain global relevance. The Russian Ladies are already dominant and the Russian Men are coming on strong.

And I don't think you would ever hear one say I placed fifth on the Grand Prix Final I deserve to go.

 

[Kateri]

Know what this thread needs? Pointless hypotheticals!

I was thinking about how Nathan was said to be ill at Nats, and how I wondered why Raf didn't withdraw him, on the basis that he had nothing to gain and everything to lose by skating badly, since he'd clearly get a bye to Olympics if he WD. Obviously he was OK, and I'm glad he skated. But... what if he hadn't?

Would Ross have won gold, and if so, would that affect his perceived status/the perceived outcry if he was bumped? Do we think he'd be on the Oly team if he was "National Champion", even with the obvious asterisk next to it?

Or would Adam, as bronze medallist, be easier to bump on to the team, since he "medalled"? (Would Vincent be the one bumped, then?)

Would the placements at Nats even be the same, or would the judges have made different "adjustments" without Nathan there?

 

[wickedwitch]

I actually agree with this. USFSA does not care enough about TES. I have said this before any other federation Nathan Chen would be a THREE time National Champ.

Yes he is winning now after INTERNATIONAL judges scores him high.

It's very possible that Nathan is a better skater today because he didn't win in 2016.

 

[bardtoob]

It's very possible that Nathan is a better skater today because he didn't win in 2016.

Give his trajectory of development, he was going to be better today regardless of how that played out. Also, Nathan was clearly going to try to be the top international skater, and there was no way around Fernandez or Hanyu without better performance quality. Jin Boyang certainly did not get around them with his 4Lz.

 

[her grace]

The skating lesson had a point. No US gymnast talks about the selection committee line Adam and Ashley did. Those gymnasts are afraid of it. They know they mess up they are out.

Locklear and Skinner both talked, retweeting their fans' outrage that they were left off the 2016 Olympic team. Skinner even famously retweeted the picture of her photoshopped body included on the team. And don't get me started on whether you could mess up and yet be named to the team anyway.

 

[becca]

It's very possible that Nathan is a better skater today because he didn't win in 2016.

That drives me nuts. What about forcing the non quad skaters to make changes? For example clearly the current coaches aren't helping Brown develop the quad. Maybe if he stopped getting free passes...He would go somewhere that could help him with his jumps and if we look at Nationals it's not just the quad that needs work. Same with other skates this season.

Nathan was going to work on his PCS because he wanted to be competitive. I am sorry but I do feel USFSA is incredibly unfair to the more athletic skaters.

 

[soogar]

I watched his performances again from Nationals and Skate America plus his Worlds performances from 2011. I really think they did a disservice not putting him on the team. I can see if he was consistently in the bottom tier at Nationals and it was a completely fluke performance out of nowhere, but he has a number of good skates over the years and he skated well at Worlds with good style. A guy bumping around in the top 3 for several years and then dealing with injuries and comes back with skates like he had at Nationals has every right to feel that he had done enough over his career and that night to make the Olympic team.

 

[Skittl1321]

I watched his performances again from Nationals and Skate America plus his Worlds performances from 2011. I really think they did a disservice not putting him on the team. I can see if he was consistently in the bottom tier at Nationals and it was a completely fluke performance out of nowhere, but he has a number of good skates over the years and he skated well at Worlds with good style. A guy bumping around in the top 3 for several years and then dealing with injuries and comes back with skates like he had at Nationals has every right to feel that he had done enough over his career and that night to make the Olympic team.

"Body of work" goes back 2 years according to the criteria. 2011 worlds was a LONG time ago.

 

[MsZem]

I really think they did a disservice not putting him on the team. I can see if he was consistently in the bottom tier at Nationals and it was a completely fluke performance out of nowhere, but he has a number of good skates over the years and he skated well at Worlds with good style.

Miner has never finished in the top ten at Worlds. Brown's best placement: 4th. Rippon's best placement: 6th. Max Aaron's: 7th.

A guy bumping around in the top 3 for several years and then dealing with injuries and comes back with skates like he had at Nationals has every right to feel that he had done enough over his career and that night to make the Olympic team.

As has been pointed out in this thread before, the selection criteria were based on the last two seasons.

 

[kwanfan1818]

As has been pointed out in this thread before, the selection criteria were based on the last two seasons.

It's more like one full season plus an extra National championships, though: championships from 2017, starting with Nationals, through CS, GP, and this year's Nationals, including some junior events.

 

[barbk]

PCS counts. It is not going away, and those who insist that it shouldn't matter are deluding themselves.

 

[soogar]

Miner has never finished in the top ten at Worlds. Brown's best placement: 4th. Rippon's best placement: 6th. Max Aaron's: 7th.


As has been pointed out in this thread before, the selection criteria were based on the last two seasons.

The quality of his skate matters more than placement, especially since it was his first worlds, he wasn't being pushed to the judges and he hadn't made a return trip. His skates at Skate American weren't horrible either. They were in line with what a lot of skaters experience in the early season.

Criteria based on two season really does a disservice to a skater coming off of injuries. I think based on his past skates and his clean performances at worlds when he was sent, there was enough assurance that he wouldn't zamboni the ice (like some other skaters who were sent to the Olympics) and some here have made it seem as if he wouldn't get out of qualifying at worlds. It doesn't seem as if there was this risk here.

Imagine if the federation bumped Paul Wylie in 1992. The same argument could have been made for him as well.

 

[berthesghost]

it seems obvious that skaters focus on what they are good at.

Jason is a born performer with great SS, but struggles with even triples. I don’t know how someone can watch this past event and think “wow, he stubbornly refuses to even try quads”. Not everyone can do everything no matter how hard they try.

Likewise I don’t get why people make out like jumpers petulantly refuse to work on pcs. From Tonya to Elvis they usually make it clear that they just have a different idea of what artistry is. And as we all know from YuNa, pointed toes are not an OGM requirement.

 

[Skittl1321]

The quality of his skate matters more than placement

Are you measuring that based on score? Or based on fan approval?
I like Ross, but cannot think of a more subjective criteria than "quality of skate".

The USFSA has a stated goal of increasing international medals, so I'd think they say that placement matters a lot.

 

[skatingguy]

Jason is a born performer with great SS, but struggles with even triples. I don’t know how someone can watch this past event and think “wow, he stubbornly refuses to even try quads”. Not everyone can do everything no matter how hard they try.

It's possible Brown is not capable of these tougher jumps but I've also heard a lot about issues with jump technique, particularly to do with the quads and the triple Axel. A few seasons ago he seemed to be getting close to a quad, but then there were injury issues and his jumps seem to have slid backwards quite a bit since. In the free skate at Nationals he was called for an under-rotation on a 3Lo and had difficulty with combinations, which might be related to an injury or an ongoing issue with his timing. When he started to land clean triple Axels, for example, it seemed like the timing had been cleaned up and the arms changed and it helped to get the clean landing and rotation.

 

[skatingguy]

Are you measuring that based on score? Or based on fan approval?
I like Ross, but cannot think of a more subjective criteria than "quality of skate".

The USFSA has a stated goal of increasing international medals, so I'd think they say that placement matters a lot.

But most skaters aren't going to have a great placement at their first World Championships but if they can skate well and start to build a reputation with the judges they will start to move up placements. We see this time and again (whether we agree with it or not) that executing your planned content again and again will help you move up the standings.

 

[MsZem]

Criteria based on two season really does a disservice to a skater coming off of injuries.

Really impressive that Adam Rippon was able to put together a strong enough record despite breaking his foot and missing the second half of last season.

Imagine if the federation bumped Paul Wylie in 1992. The same argument could have been made for him as well.

Wylie arguably had a better fall season going into 1992 Nationals than Miner had this year. He's also finished in the top ten at Worlds more than once, and was a very consistent competitor at Nationals.

Who knows how skaters who were not chosen for the World/Olympic team would have performed if given the chance.

 

[Yazmeen]

"Body of work" goes back 2 years according to the criteria. 2011 worlds was a LONG time ago.

Based on 2011, I guess we should consider Ryan Bradley? Or maybe Jeremy Abbott?

Some people here are really grasping at straws for the argument for Ross.

 

[Skittl1321]

But most skaters aren't going to have a great placement at their first World Championships but if they can skate well and start to build a reputation with the judges they will start to move up placements. We see this time and again (whether we agree with it or not) that executing your planned content again and again will help you move up the standings.

Well, that world result wasn't even considered since it was so long ago.

But let's say we do use "quality of skate" and not consider placement. How does USFS measure that to tell which of their skaters had a better quality of skate? If Adam goes to world and lands all his planned content and places, say 9th and Nathan goes and biffs a bunch of stuff, and places 5th- does Adam take the lead in quality of skate to add to his body of work?

 

[kwanfan1818]

I like Ross, but cannot think of a more subjective criteria than "quality of skate".

It's actually quantitative: +GOE, or the % of points over base, plus SS and PE in PCS, if you want to discount IN.

In the free skate at Nationals he was called for an under-rotation on a 3Lo and had difficulty with combinations, which might be related to an injury or an ongoing issue with his timing.

Not the first time he'd struggled with the 3Lo this season.

It's been a rough season for him.

 

[Tavi]

it seems obvious that skaters focus on what they are good at.

Jason is a born performer with great SS, but struggles with even triples. I don’t know how someone can watch this past event and think “wow, he stubbornly refuses to even try quads”. Not everyone can do everything no matter how hard they try.

Likewise I don’t get why people make out like jumpers petulantly refuse to work on pcs. From Tonya to Elvis they usually make it clear that they just have a different idea of what artistry is. And as we all know from YuNa, pointed toes are not an OGM requirement.

Don’t you think it’s a bit of an exaggeration to say Jason struggles with “triples”? Yes, he bombed his FS here. Yes he underperformed this season and specifically, struggled with the 3A and 4T. But if he couldn’t generally do all of his triples and do them well most of the time, he would never have made it as far as he has.

 

[Skittl1321]

It's actually quantitative: +GOE, or the % of points over base, plus SS and PE in PCS, if you want to discount IN.

Those particular PCS seem a bit arbitrary- why not transitions, composition, or interpretation?

But let's go with it. I like the idea of % of points over base as a metric.

At their most recent worlds:
Ross had a base value of 105.77, and a TES of 116.77; so that is a 10.4% increase.
Adam had a base value of 118.17 and a TES of 118.17; so an increase of 16%.
Adam is placed over Ross using this "quality of skate" metric.


Their SS and PE greatly favor Adam as well. (Adam in the mid 8s, Ross in the high 6s, low 7s.)


Just for giggles: on the TES metic you've named: Adam also wins over Hanyu when he won his Olympic gold medal...His base value was 127.43, TES was 144.5, an increase of 13.4%. Now, Hanyu's skate was poor, I wouldn't say it was a great "quality of skate"- but I'd also never favor selecting Adam over Hanyu for a future assignment because Adam's "quality of skate" is better.
So yeah, I'm saying this is a pretty ridiculous metric to name future assignments on. Placement seems to be a lot more meaningful.

 

[legjumper]

At 37 pages and counting, I feel like this is the most discussion that Ross Miner has EVER had in his entire career, COMBINED, on this board. Way to go out with a bang, #BossMiner!!

 

[kwanfan1818]

So yeah, I'm saying this is a pretty ridiculous metric to name future assignments on. Placement seems to be a lot more meaningful.

You claimed that "quality" of skate was the most subjective criteria, which is blatantly untrue: most of the % of GOE over base is quantifiable. (What isn't is including bullet points for features, instead of having them be reflected in levels.) This isn't about Miner.

Placements themselves are based on the fields. A skater can win in a weak field when the same skate would place 6th at another event. Placements themselves aren't the tell-all.

 

[Skittl1321]

You claimed that "quality" of skate was the most subjective criteria, which is blatantly untrue: most of the % of GOE over base is quantifiable. (What isn't is including bullet points for features, instead of having them be reflected in levels.) This isn't about Miner.

Placements themselves are based on the fields. A skater can win in a weak field when the same skate would place 6th at another event. Placements themselves aren't the tell-all.

But you were the one who decided that quality of skate is quantifiable by % over GOE. That isn't defined anywhere. YOU chose that. GOE only tells you the quality of a single element. Looking at % GOE only tells you about TES; which is only half of the score. And for some reason you decided not to look at all the PCS.
And the previous poster was saying that Miner had an incredible showing at Worlds that wasn't well quantified by his placement, so I quantified it by the metric you chose. It still wasn't very good.

Let's leave Miner out and use quality of skate to determine which skaters are more deserving of placements- you'd take Adam after his World's appearance over Hanyu after an Olympic gold? The quality of skate was better afterall.

And yes, placement is determined by field; but scores are not comparable competition to competition either- some judges might be looser with the GOE than others, so you could only compare % over base value within a single competition too.

 

[soogar]

Really impressive that Adam Rippon was able to put together a strong enough record despite breaking his foot and missing the second half of last season.


Wylie arguably had a better fall season going into 1992 Nationals than Miner had this year. He's also finished in the top ten at Worlds more than once, and was a very consistent competitor at Nationals.

Who knows how skaters who were not chosen for the World/Olympic team would have performed if given the chance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Wylie

Paul's last worlds finish was 11th in 1991 and his other two finishes were 9th and 10th. 3rd and 5th in his fall events. Hardly setting the world on fire yet he won the silver medal in 1992.

Paul was not considered a consistent competitor at all. He had great nationals performances but did not skate to his potential in international events until he graduated college and devoted time exclusively to training. But I guess this scenario isn't going to happen anymore since we will use body of work to choose skaters who may have peaked prior to nationals or are unable to stand up under big event pressure.

 

[kwanfan1818]

But you were the one who decided that quality of skate is quantifiable by % over GOE. That isn't defined anywhere.

The ISU defines technical quality by +/- GOE. That is quantifiable.

YOU chose that. GOE only tells you the quality of a single element.

And the total of +GOE tells the quality of all of the elements. So total % GOE tells you how much better over base the skater performed all of the technical elements.

Looking at % GOE only tells you about TES; which is only half of the score. And for some reason you decided not to look at all the PCS.

I don't have a problem with looking at all of the PCS, but you were the one who said quality was most subjective, so I chose the PCS that are repeatedly argued as being more tech than second mark. Plus, in general, the other four PCS tend to be linked to SS, and TR tends to be unrelated to the actual programs, so you can just take SS in most cases and ignore the rest.

Although there's a reason the Australian Fed, for example, uses international TES, and I suspect most of this is because of reputation judging in PCS and their seeming use to rank, while at least the leveling is done by what is considered more objective tech panels.

 

[Skittl1321]

but you were the one who said quality was most subjective

"Quality of skate" is subjective.
There is no such metric.

We have various indicators of quality of elements- such as GOE for quality of technical elements or PCS.

But I still don't understand why one would care what the % increase over base value of TES is vs what the actual TES is. I'd much rather send the guy with the highest score than the guy who has better GOE and a low score.


All of my comments stemmed to a person who said "He skated well at worlds, with good style." and then followed up with "The quality of his skate matters more than placement". So there really isn't a lot of indication in those statements that quality of technical elements is what "matters" to the poster.

 

[MsZem]

Paul's last worlds finish was 11th in 1991 and his other two finishes were 9th and 10th. 3rd and 5th in his fall events. Hardly setting the world on fire yet he won the silver medal in 1992

Still better than Ross Miner.

If you want to argue that US international selections should be based solely on placement at Nationals, go ahead and do that. But there is no benchmark by which you can make a case that Ross Miner has a strong international record, or even a strong national record. Not as strong as Wylie, not as strong as Zhou, and most importantly in this case - not as strong as Rippon.

 

[Rock2]

And I don't think you would ever hear one say I placed fifth on the Grand Prix Final I deserve to go.

Yeah that's a part of it and something TSL was sort of commenting on.
So many of the athletes USFSA have accommodated in the past had better credentials.
And as has been pointed out, the prospects for USA in singles or team have not materially changed as a result of accommodating Adam. So as many have said, Ross deserved more than 4CC and second alternate.

My reco is much more weight on nationals as your main event close to Olympic for which everyone comes prepared to skate their best. You interrupt those results only for an athlete who has crushed it at one of the (very few) best-of-the-best events where all athletes train to peak:

*World medal in prev 2 seasons
*4CC medal past season
*GPF medal current season

That's about all I'd look at. BOW of work is too messy and complicated the more you bring into it while the above isolates who truly is elite vs who has had a good season.
BOW also isn't apples to apples enough. True, you can factor out results and just look at scores, but those, too, tend to be different event to event, panel to panel. As for placements you have all sorts of dynamics, such as what Bezic talked about on TSL, where most of the top skaters don't want to be on the GP in an Olympic year because they want to train/build and not leave their best performance on early-season ice. This year especially there were a number of factors that took a bunch of the top guys out of the GP so I asterisk his achievement in getting to the final.

Anyway, peel back the layers and BOW gets increasingly ugly. Identify the elite with elite credentials and accommodate them. Everyone else: game on!!