^^ It makes sense for Sui/Han to recycle because they haven't skated full seasons for the past three seasons, so their programs have not been competed that often. They have good programs to choose from that can get more deserved mileage.
Bringing part of the recent conversation in U.S. pairs over here:
I think if they actually skated clean (w/ sbs triples), Alexa and Chris would definitely be above Ashley and Tim. They have a better twist, better throws and better lifts (GOE-wise) and generally good pair elements. Now, I think Ashley and Tim are probably more likely to skate clean than the Knierims, so there's that.
^^ True, but don't discount how Ash/Timothy have improved their speed, smoothness and overall precision even since Worlds 2019. Continuing to improve in every aspect and learning how to be steady performers is probably the key to success for pairs teams. And then having boffo weapons to enhance overall quality and consistency, can seal the deal. Mostly what we see is how hard it is to have everything working on all cylinders at all times. The Russians often seem to have great technical expertise combined with Russian prestige. But in general, T/M especially and some of the younger teams lack personality, connection and charismatic presence on the ice. In general, many of the U.S. teams and international teams like James/Cipres and Sui/Han have personality plus!
I think Haven/Brandon's dramatic and strong fp this season, that builds to such a high with adagio pairs elements in perfect concert with the musical high notes at the end of their program, is going to serve as a significant blueprint for a lot of teams internationally. Brandon credits John Z for the lift layout and boffo ideas for that program. Surely many international teams are taking note to possibly try and emulate similar ideas and layout patterns next season. In addition, the quality Calalang/Johnson are showing on the ice with their speed, quality elements and charisma is gaining them international attention already as a newly paired team in only their second season together.
With everyone so up-and-down, it's tough to get feelers as to who international judges would go for if all the teams skated clean.
My best guess: 1. Ashley/Tim 2. Alexa/Chris 3. Haven/Brandon 4. Jessica/Brian
Every one of these teams have high quality and possess excellent programs this season. We have to factor in rep level with international judges, the amount of experience each team have together, combined with recent results. And in that respect, how you have listed them is probably the case. Tarah/Danny should never be counted out competitively. But they apparently are adjusting to their new coaching environment, and possibly Tarah is still undergoing injury rehab to stay fit.
Coming back from injury is a long-term battle. This reality was brought home to me when Tara & Johnny mentioned that Peng has a current ongoing injury issue and that she's constantly in pain while skating. That might be adding to P/J's ongoing inconsistency, and that is why they did a planned sbs double rather than a sbs triple (also reminiscent of Haven/Brandon's struggles on sbs jumps post her knee surgery and rehab).
The young Russian team P/K are solid technically, but they are still young and inexperienced. Plus, as usual, solid technique and Russian pairs prestige gives these young Russian teams more PCS than they deserve in some categories.
Further in regard to Tarah/Danny, Tarah must focus on her skating skills which would help in improving their overall speed. And upgrading their 3-twist is still a work-in-progress. The improvements T&D need will be crucial, especially with a quality team like Calalang/Johnson on the rise, who excel across-the-board with speed, SS, charismatic connection, cool choreo, presence on the ice, and top-notch elements. C/J's main things to work on are sbs jump consistency and gaining experience together.
The biggest takeaway should be that U.S. teams are showing they are a force to be reckoned with and that they deserve to be given a lot of credit, particularly when they perform well. For the most part, I would say based on performances, most of the judging has been fair so far this season. Still, there's always the political factor, and the unfairness of how PCS is not accurately assessed but meted out in a range, often based on politics or level of tech expertise.