ISU to evaluate feasibility of 2020-21 skating season

[Carolla5501]

I think the Grand Prix season is gone..... Hopefully in the US they can do qualification skates for Nationals, but....

The best we can hope for internationally IMHO is Worlds. Maybe with a push back to April or May?

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I’d much rather see happy, prepared skaters than a big splatfest.

My ideal would be for skaters to prepare for their respective Nationals and then find a way to proceed to Euros/4CC and Worlds in 2021 — if possible.

With any length of time away from the ice, skaters begin to lose their technique, sense of timing, and aerobic capacity.

I would like to think that the ISU may even consider lowering the TES if there are any international competitions later this year as well.

Everyone is going to be pretty rusty.

 

[Polaris]

I don't think anything on a global level is going to be resolved in the next 30 days, though, and that would push us likely right into the beginning of 2021 as an absolute minimum, and I still think that's extremely wishful thinking.

I have a feeling we are all going to end up back here in a few weeks or a month questioning why we ever thought there would be a chance for the season to start/take place.

This.

 

[mjb52]

I agree but I don't like it! Selfishly, I want there to be some kind of skating season, I hope at least we can have Nationals and Worlds safely for everyone.

 

[MacMadame]

they'd probably be learning new programs on top of all of this.

I'd be surprised if a lot of the skaters had new programs. Many won't have the money to pay for them since they aren't coaching to earn extra cash and also it would really add to the stress.

 

[Debbie S]

I think most skaters will keep at least one, if not both, of their programs from the past season. Or go back to a previous season's program.

 

[blancanieves]

Even if the competitive 2020-2021 season doesn't take place, my main hope is that a feasible way to return skaters to their on and off ice intensive training can become available.

 

[Polaris]

I think most skaters will keep at least one, if not both, of their programs from the past season. Or go back to a previous season's program.

Please not Hanyu.

 

[Regretla]

I think that a traditional GP season as we know it is probably not going to happen cause if one event is cancelled then what happens with the ranking, but maybe the local GP events can take place as local competitions. I don't know if there will be the possibility to have international judges, it will probably come to whether air travel is feasible and safe.
Then skaters can go on to their respective National competitions and hope that major competitions will happen, if the situation in the host country permits it. I could bet on Sweden hosting Worlds, but this is now, and will their policy be the same in a year from now?
Skaters need to have some kind of competitive season, and this applies to all sports. The time away from the ice equals the time skaters need to get back in the shape they were before the break.It won't necessarily make a skater better than another one that spent more time in quarantine, but it wil have some effect on the technical content. And the coaches are facing a situation without precedent,the whole comeback strategy could be important as to who gets in shape earlier, and who doesn't.

 

[overedge]

The ISU can do whatever it wants with its schedules, but the reality is that, depending on where they are, some skaters might have access to ice a lot sooner than others. It's not a problem if nobody can get into the ice, but if some skaters are in areas that are allowing ice rinks to be open, and other skaters are in areas where ice rinks have to stay closed, that's a huge discrepancy in resources that may have to be taken into account somehow.

Personally, as a spectator, I'm not going to any skating event (ISU or otherwise) that doesn't guarantee social distancing for the audience. No way am I sitting right next to anyone who might have had contact with the v*r*s.

 

[bladesofgorey]

This is a *****. It is not going anywhere. We are going to have to learn to coexist with it. We cannot all just hide under our beds in fear forever.
The great depression that is going to happen soon if we do not get back to work is going to cause a whole lot more deaths than this *****. We cannot wait 12 to 18+ months for a vaccine for life to go on.

Not sure which country you are talking about but the US has more than enough money available to its citizens to support them through a year of shelter in place- just look at the trillions spent on wall street that could have been diverted to small businesses and out of work employees. Where do you live exactly that you are privileged to just have "life go on" or just "coexist" with this? Life won't "just go on" where I am, just the opposite. Who is this Royal We you are talking about? If you want to offer yourself up as a casualty be my guest but leave those of us losing community members and loved ones all around us while trying not to die after contracting it ourselves out of your idiotic rhetoric. (ps how long do you think healthcare workers/doctors/nurses are going to hang in there during the "oh well people die life goes on let's get back to normal" approach?

 

[tony]

I think that a traditional GP season as we know it is probably not going to happen cause if one event is cancelled then what happens with the ranking, but maybe the local GP events can take place as local competitions. I don't know if there will be the possibility to have international judges, it will probably come to whether air travel is feasible and safe.

Another excellent point here - the Grand Prix and Junior Grand Prix 'series' are dependent on all of the events giving the skaters a chance to qualify into another event. Canceling just one of them throws all of those skaters scheduled to compete into an impossible situation. Again, lots of 'if's have to be accomplished to even get to the point of dreaming of a competitive season starting in 2021, but it would also then add the big 'if' of the USA, Canada, China, France, Russia, and Japan even allowing these things to happen in consecutive weeks. Airports and hotels being open to international visitors is going to be a huge hurdle. For example, I think Miami is bound to stay closed the rest of the year because of the percent of international tourism it gets. You can control what's happening within your country to an extent, but once you open the gates to everyone else, the situation changes drastically. I think most countries are going to experience this, and I think even at a lower level most cities within the USA are also going to go through it. And you better believe figure skating events are not on a high priority list for anyone in terms of 'getting back to normal'.

 

[Debbie S]

I think most countries are going to experience this, and I think even at a lower level most cities within the USA are also going to go through it. And you better believe figure skating events are not on a high priority list for anyone in terms of 'getting back to normal'.

Based on what Newsom has said about CA's reopening process, sporting events with spectators won't happen until there is either a vaccine or effective treatment. That could be a year away. With U.S. Nats in San Jose next year, it's looking unlikely that spectators will be allowed, if the event even happens. SW Pacific Regionals is also in CA, in Oct - and at Regionals, most of the "spectators" are family members of the skaters. Will they be allowed in? (That's assuming we have a qual season and I'm not optimistic that will happen.)

Back to int'l events....4CC seems unlikely unless there is a major vaccine or therapeutic breakthrough. AUS may be open to int'l travel next year, but I suspect they don't want a major int'l skating event as their first 'test'. I'm a little more optimistic about Worlds in Sweden, unless we have a second wave right at that time, since Sweden never really implemented full lockdown anyway (but if they are in the middle of an outbreak then, with no vaccine, I would hope the ISU would pull the plug).

 

[ZilphaK]

Based on what Newsom has said about CA's reopening process, sporting events with spectators won't happen until there is either a vaccine or effective treatment. That could be a year away.

A year away at earliest, and then with anticipated problems. NYT had a pretty convincing report recently that 2030-2036 is more like it, looking at how long other major vaccines took to develop safely. Although, there are some small breakthroughs with antivirals, so that may be a sooner/better hope. I just don't think you can say "2030-2036" without people throwing up their hands and giving up even trying to prevent chaos. People can better handle 12-18 months, mostly.

 

[MacMadame]

NYT had a pretty convincing report recently that 2030-2036

10 to 16 years? That doesn't seem reasonable compared to other viruses. Those numbers are "we never get a vaccine, never get therapeutics, and it takes that long to get herd immunity" and even then they seem long.

2023 to 2026 I could believe.

Which is long enough and why I think we need to learn to live with this virus in a way that doesn't paralyze everything. If that means masks everywhere and temperature checks everywhere and social distancing in all retail stores and restaurants, and maybe even sports without spectators, then that's what we have to do.

 

[starrynight]

At least in figure skating, the big show is not until 2022. Getting skaters to the Olympics is the main priority.

I feel for the summer athletes who must be wondering what they are going to do for 2021.

This whole thing may well throw a wrench in the machine that is very high paying elite professional sports. If sports without spectators etc continue and the whole thing becomes way less profitable, we may go back to more amateur days - like when rugby team members all worked as postmen, bank clerks etc during the day.

But watching sport on TV without a crowd is not as satisfying. It's what separates out say a JGP event with empty stands to a packed World Champs.

 

[insideedgeua]

The issue with somewhere like Australia is the travel restrictions.

I don’t know if it’s all states, but if you fly in now, some states take you straight to a hotel for a two week quarantine.

Skaters would need to go very early and then have two weeks with no training before the event. I can’t see that working at this point.

Obviously a lot could change before February. But right now Australia and New Zealand are pretty well isolated from the virus. I’m not sure if they would want to give that up for a sporting event.

 

[Orm Irian]

Obviously a lot could change before February. But right now Australia and New Zealand are pretty well isolated from the *****. I’m not sure if they would want to give that up for a sporting event.

We don't.

 

[aka_gerbil]

10 to 16 years? That doesn't seem reasonable compared to other viruses. Those numbers are "we never get a vaccine, never get therapeutics, and it takes that long to get herd immunity" and even then they seem long.

2023 to 2026 I could believe.

I and many people I work with will be shocked if it takes 10-16 years for the vaccine.

I have read the NYT piece and the major vaccines they list are varicella, rotavirus, and hpv. What you have to look at is when development began and what the molecular biology toolbox was then compared to now. Work began on those in the 70s and 80s. I don’t have the adjectives to describe how many advances we have made in molecular biology technique since then that make this process a lot faster. What we’ve learned and know already about this virus would have taken years if this had happened even as late as the 90’s. Also, urgency and scope of the problem are going to help clear hurdles with funding and getting through regulatory.

I am a bit skeptical of 18 months, but 3-6 years is certainly a possible time frame. That said, I think odds are high we’re going to have treatments soon and that will be a game changer.[/QUOTE]

 

[Debbie S]

I am a bit skeptical of 18 months, but 3-6 years is certainly a possible time frame. That said, I think odds are high we’re going to have treatments soon and that will be a game changer.

OK, I'm going with that. In all seriousness, I appreciate you sharing your knowledge here. Your posts have been very informative.

IIRC, they had an H1N1 vaccine fairly quickly, within a few months, I think? Was that process easier b/c it was so close to the flu?

 

[RoseRed]

OK, I'm going with that. In all seriousness, I appreciate you sharing your knowledge here. Your posts have been very informative.

IIRC, they had an H1N1 vaccine fairly quickly, within a few months, I think? Was that process easier b/c it was so close to the flu?

H1N1 is a subtype of the influenza A virus. So it's not just "close to the flu", it's a particular strain of influenza. And yes, that it why it was possible to develop vaccines more quickly.

Personally, I think one year to 18 months for a vaccine is plausible. The sense of urgency, the funding available, the number of different groups working on it around the world, etc. will all serve to make it happen faster than it would in other circumstances. It will be fast-tracked as much as possible. But once an effective and safe vaccine has be found, it will still need to be produced and distributed, which also takes time.

 

[taz'smum]

Cross posting from the Russian thread as it is relevant here too


Russian Olympic Committee president interview

An excerpt -

Your forecast - when can the training process resume?
- The situation in sports is not much different from the situation in ordinary life. We have seen that the active phase of the epidemic in China lasted about three and a half months. If we take the end of March as a reference point, then approximately in the second half of June, theoretically, we can count on the resumption of training. We communicate with colleagues from the national Olympic committees of other countries who have already passed the plateau in terms of incidence, and there are about the same dates as I called. A number of NOCs are ready to open Olympic training centers, but with significant limitations. And in the overwhelming majority of cases abroad, athletes train at home, since it is difficult to maintain the required social distance at the bases, and in some sports it is impossible. Our monitoring group is closely monitoring what is happening in other countries. No matter how cynical it sounds, but due to the later development of the ********* in Russia, we have a slight advantage over other states. We can use their experience, look at how and where already open centers work, and draw our conclusions.

 

[misskarne]

AUS may be open to int'l travel next year, but I suspect they don't want a major int'l skating event as their first 'test'.

The tests will start earlier. NRL will recommence behind closed doors on May 28; AFL is expected to follow some time in June. The big test will be the T20 Cricket World Cup this summer. That will be the real test. If we are in a position where we can have that, then yes, 4CC will probably be fine. If that is canned, I don't like 4CC's chances.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

The tests will start earlier. NRL will recommence behind closed doors on May 28; AFL is expected to follow some time in June. The big test will be the T20 Cricket World Cup this summer. That will be the real test. If we are in a position where we can have that, then yes, 4CC will probably be fine. If that is canned, I don't like 4CC's chances.

Social distancing shouldn't be an issue.

Given it is Four Continents and the track record that event has in terms of in-house viewership, at least we can be assured that there will only be about 200 spectators in a 20,000 seat arena.

 

[ZilphaK]

I and many people I work with will be shocked if it takes 10-16 years for the vaccine.

I have read the NYT piece and the major vaccines they list are varicella, rotavirus, and hpv. What you have to look at is when development began and what the molecular biology toolbox was then compared to now. Work began on those in the 70s and 80s. I don’t have the adjectives to describe how many advances we have made in molecular biology technique since then that make this process a lot faster. What we’ve learned and know already about this ***** would have taken years if this had happened even as late as the 90’s. Also, urgency and scope of the problem are going to help clear hurdles with funding and getting through regulatory.

I am a bit skeptical of 18 months, but 3-6 years is certainly a possible time frame. That said, I think odds are high we’re going to have treatments soon and that will be a game changer.

[/QUOTE]

Thank you. I was about throw my vodka bottle though the screen when I read the article.

 

[ZilphaK]

But watching sport on TV without a crowd is not as satisfying.

On behalf of 99% of youth hockey players, they would LOVE if their parents didn't show up for the games.

 

[MacMadame]

Thank you. I was about throw my vodka bottle though the screen when I read the article.

So that article really did say 2036? I was sure you'd come back and say it was a typo!

Now I can't decide if I must find that article and read it or whether to avoid it like the plague.

 

[Rock2]

I just can't see large gatherings anywhere in the world until there's a vaccine. That would be fall 2021. Ish. So, all sports of any scope will have to determine the economics of trying to continue.

So far the only sport I have read about that's optimistic is curling. They have sketched out how they can run it and it sounds reasonable. Haven't heard of any others with decent prospects.

I can envision a scenario, though, where before the end of this year we reboot significantly across the world but with heavy heavy restrictions placed on human interaction. That could look like anything such as a max number of people in any venue including even small social venues like restaurants, with social distancing part of the protocol. This could also mean international flights restored before the end of the year. Not saying that happens but I see the potential for it, with well-planned controls.

That to me says the earliest skaters can get onto the ice would be fall (Oct-Nov). If the season happens at all, I see all fall events cancelled, and if there is no serious resurgence of the situation over the winter, we might see national championships happening anywhere from Jan-March, no 4CC or Euros and go straight to World's in the March-May time frame. No touring, of course, so it can be pushed as long as ice is available.

I see that as best case, providing the situation in most of the ISU nations permits this level of restoration on this timing. Spitballing, I give it a 30-50% chance. Unless we see every country on the serious decline in the summer, then everything I said is likely already in jeopardy, so forget it.

The worst case scenario is Beijing is delayed or cancelled. Widespread availability of a vaccine on a normal timeline is very late 2021 and possibly into 2022 in some countries. Restoring sports fully at that time just does not allow enough time to train and qualify countries and athletes for the Olympics. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

 

[bladesofgorey]

Nobody should be factoring herd immunity until it's proven that:
1. Previously Infected people are immune
2. Said immunity will last for at least a few years.

Temperature checks can help pinpoint people who are symptomatic, but asymptomatic people can spread the virus and people who become very ill later are asymptomatic anywhere for 2 days to two weeks (or longer for outliers). So far studies show that the severity of one's symptoms don't correlate to how infectious they are and what kind of viral load they can expel. So checking temperatures can help uncover cases and bar infectious people from entering facilities but will not do jack sh!t to stop the majority of new transmissions. The only thing that will help is massive (and regular) testing of asymptomatic people coupled with contact tracing to know where the hot spots are, and enforced waves of new lockdowns every time any small cluster arises.

 

[Carolla5501]

Please not Hanyu.

I think he’d recycle the program regardless, so it won’t make a difference. He seems to be focused on getting a quad Axel

So I don’t think it’s going to change no matter what

A year away at earliest, and then with anticipated problems. NYT had a pretty convincing report recently that 2030-2036 is more like it, looking at how long other major vaccines took to develop safely. Although, there are some small breakthroughs with antivirals, so that may be a sooner/better hope. I just don't think you can say "2030-2036" without people throwing up their hands and giving up even trying to prevent chaos. People can better handle 12-18 months, mostly.

I work in healthcare and get a lot of industry reading articles. And this is not realistic. Just to give you an example untill now the longest time to the to develop has been about six years. So this article wants me to believe that this vaccine will take 10 years. No. I don’t think I’ll bother to read it. I also think that we are probably going to have a vaccine the first part of next year, now it may be a two-part vaccine which tends to be less effective because people will get part one and never go back for part two. but you know can only do so much sometimes, you can’t fix stupid


J&J Is spending several millions to ready to plants to produce a vaccine next year. Do you really think they spend that money if they thought I was going to take 10 years? They claim to be able to produce 1 billion vaccines within the first six months. And they have a vaccine already moving down the road toward clinical trials.