From Russia with love [#28]: Autumn to Winter 2017

[TAHbKA]

It's hard for me to imagine for Zagitova being out of the team event for a non-Eteri girl if she keeps on skating like she does.

How does she? Her components are still lower than Sotskova's and she is not yet consistent.

I think Medvedeva is a lock and will do the SP as she is the only one who can beat a clean Osmond/Kostner/whoever there

Kostner is not important. Team Italy will be lucky to make it to the LP and they are not medal contenders. From Orser's interview Daleman will be doing the team event, so it's not a certain Osmond will be there at all. But then again I would put both Osmond and Dalemann above Medvedeva taking all 3 are skating clean

and for a LP there's no better candidate than Alina.

Frankly, I don't see much difference between her, Sotskova or, if we are lucky, Tsurskaya. None of them would beat a clean Osmond or Dalemann, all of them would beat a clean Wagner. And all of them will be below Natasha McCay if they are not clean. Ok, may be not below Natasha. But you get the point

The only chance for non-Tutberidze girl being on a team event is only if Medvedeva decides not to compete there to concentrate on an invididual event

Think so far Medvedeva and Tutberidze said in every interview when were asked they would do a team event. So that's not an option.

It's pretty much a guaranteed Olympic medal, and I don't see her or Tutberidze giving it away that easily. Russian fed can favoure Buyanova all they want, but they also want medals and with so-so dance and men they just need 1+1 from ladies to compete with Canada. And there's Mutko as well who will control the situation no doubt

Am trying to compare to the last Olympics: Bobrova/Soloviev had a decent SD and a horribe FD, Ilinykh/Katsalapov - the other way around. So it was obvious who is doing what. What about this year? Do Bobrova/Soloviev do better than the other teams in one of the dances and Stepanova/Bukin in the other?

Anyway, schedule + politics

 

[Ka3sha]

If nothing extraordinary happens, I think teem Russia will go with Medvedeva (SP) + Zagitova (FP).
Zagitova has the highest base value in the free, probably she isn’t as consistent as Julia was in 2014 or as is Evgenia nowadays but she usually has mistakes in the short and then nails everything in the free. She scored 144,44 in China (and 147 in Lombardía) and is currently second on the season best’s ISU list. Her PCS may also grow a lot till February, especially if she medals at GPF and/or Euros.

My guess:
Tarasova/Morozov’s (SP) + Stolbova/Klimov (LP)
Kolyada
Medvedeva (SP) + Zagitova (LP)
Bobrova/Soloviev

 

[Autumn_girl]

How does she? Her components are still lower than Sotskova's and she is not yet consistent.

She has the highest base value FS of all the ladies, she skates it very well and is capable of getting almost 80 points in TES when clean, something only Medvedeva can do. Her PCS being lower than Sotskova (not for long I think) is not important as absolutely clean Sotskova will get 70-73 TES and more likely lower as she is prone to UR

Kostner is not important. Team Italy will be lucky to make it to the LP and they are not medal contenders. From Orser's interview Daleman will be doing the team event, so it's not a certain Osmond will be there at all. But then again I would put both Osmond and Dalemann above Medvedeva taking all 3 are skating clean

Kostner won't be in LP for sure but can do the SP to test the ice (she did in 2014 if I'm not mistaken) and whoever skates for Russia has to beat her. As for Osmond, I think she will do the SP and Daleman will skate in LP, Canada, just like Russia, has a pretty much guaranteed olympic medal and very likely gold, I doubt Osmond doesn't care about it especially considering she is nowhere near a lock for individual medal given her inconsistency. So whoever skates in SP will have to beat Osmond too.

Frankly, I don't see much difference between her, Sotskova or, if we are lucky, Tsurskaya. None of them would beat a clean Osmond or Dalemann, all of them would beat a clean Wagner. And all of them will be below Natasha McCay if they are not clean. Ok, may be not below Natasha. But you get the point

Maybe not a clean Osmond (but when was the last time we saw a clean Osmond in LP anyway? her best ever skate had a doubled jump in it), but I a clean Alina will most likely beat Daleman with the huge TES she is going to get and PCS most likely growing during the season. And I'm not sure about Sotskova at all as she won't get the TES anywhere near Alina's and her PCS aren't going to cover the difference at all. I actually bet by the time of GPF/Euros Alina's PCS will be higher than hers.

Am trying to compare to the last Olympics: Bobrova/Soloviev had a decent SD and a horribe FD, Ilinykh/Katsalapov - the other way around. So it was obvious who is doing what. What about this year? Do Bobrova/Soloviev do better than the other teams in one of the dances and Stepanova/Bukin in the other?

My bet is on only B/S in ice dance for Russia and only Kolyada for men. Then T/M+S/K in pairs and Medvedeva+Zagitova in ladies

 

[barbarafan]

I watched the gala and Med did fall on one of her jumps. Perhaps she's training too hard.

Med has a very strong head and she seems to love doing shows and galas. That seems to be a bit of a carrot for her. I can't see her being pushed to do a gala but I can she her being pushed to compete. Hope she stays completely off the foot until it is better both for her benefit and for us. She is one of the biggest reasons for looking forward to the GPF.

 

[Cherub721]

Zagitova could have a chance at beating Osmond. Her Personal best LP is 147.17. She has the highest senior debut scores ever, and the fourth highest behind Med, Kim, and Sotnikova. Osmond's PB is 142.34 which is actually just below Daleman's 142.41. Both are behind Zagitova and above Sotskova (137.61) and Tsurskaya (140.14, but if her senior debut is already nearly as high as their scores over the entire quad, she could close that gap soon).

Zagitova's total score is only very slightly higher (218.46 vs Osmond's 218.13) because Osmond is much stronger in the SP, she could beat Zagitova in any given comp, but specifically for the Team Event Long Program, Zagitova is the best prospect currently after Medvedeva.

 

[rfisher]

I can hear the screams now if Zagitova beats Osmond this weekend.

 

[Wyliefan]

Oh, I don't think many of us would be surprised if she did. I'd prefer Osmond myself, but you can't ever count out one of Eteri's super-jumpers!

 

[BlueRidge]

How many of Eteri's super-jumpers have had sustained success?

 

[Ka3sha]

How many of Eteri's super-jumpers have had sustained success?

Does Med count?
I think it's too early to talk,as she is quite young for a coach and hasn't been at the top long enough to judge. Shelepen and Lipnitskaya have retired (but both changed coaches before the retirement). Evgenia is a two times World Champion, Alina and Polina have just moved to seniors. I guess we will see in few years

 

[BlueRidge]

Evgenia certainly does count!

I haven't paid that much attention to who is coached by whom so didn't know whether there was anyone else (yet).

I like Tsurskaya's skating. What do people think of her prospects?

 

[rfisher]

Evgenia certainly does count!

I haven't paid that much attention to who is coached by whom so didn't know whether there was anyone else (yet).

I like Tsurskaya's skating. What do people think of her prospects?

That would be Zagitova, who actually has the highest BV of all the senior ladies, and Tsurskaya. And a whole slew of juniors doing quads.

 

[BlueRidge]

Juniors doing quads. Yuck.

 

[rfisher]

Their goal is to advance the sport. They've cornered the market on the arm over the head variation and jumps in the bonus section, but they're moving on to quads. There are several young Korean skaters who are doing this as well. Some of these kids will be seniors this quad.

 

[Vash01]

How many of Eteri's super-jumpers have had sustained success?

Medvedeva - Lost just one competition since turning senior two years ago.

In general, how many of the Current ladies have had sustained success? - Carolina. I can't think of anyone else. May be Ashley for winning 3 US titles and one world silver .

Eteri's other students are very young, in their first or second senior year. Julia had injuries that forced her to eventually retire, after leaving Eteri. It is a bit early to talk about sustained success. Actually among the Russians we may not find one or two dominant skaters because there are so many talented ladies there.

 

[Ka3sha]

Also we should consider the fact that there are A LOT of super-jumpers (and not only jumpers) in Russia nowadays. And that fact significantly reduces chances that Polina or Alina or some other Eteri's girl will sustain their success or have a pretty long career

 

[BlueRidge]

My hope would be that to advance the sport, some of them would learn how to sustain their success and extend it.

Quads will decidely not do that.

I think the most valuable thing for the sport is mature skaters who master many aspects of the sport. Skaters who jump up and then are gone aren't doing that.

To my mind, though its only a couple of years for her, Evgenia is accomplishing a start on that. Of course she may decide not to stay in competitively if she wins Oly gold. That's a different matter but is always disappointing as a fan of the sport. (Its one of the things I resent about the damn Olympics.)

 

[oleada]

I like Tsurskaya's skating. What do people think of her prospects?

My main concern is injuries. She had to withdraw from major events in the last two seasons do to injuries.

Juniors doing quads. Yuck.

It's not just Eteri. Rika Kihira is attempting two 3A in her programs. Mao did 3A back in her junior days. We'll see how it works out.

 

[Ka3sha]

My hope would be that to advance the sport, some of them would learn how to sustain their success and extend it.
Quads will decidely not do that.

It's quite controversial.
Mishin and Liza have always said that you have to start learning triple axel in your junior days (Liza started working on it when she was 11, iirc) if you want to land it in the future. Yes, you may lose the jump during puberty but it will be much easier to regain the jump than to learn it from the beginning.

 

[BlueRidge]

Do. Not. Like. 3A. Either.

 

[Ka3sha]

Btw, Mishin and Elena Berezhnaya's daughter (and an unknown boy)
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbcWS40Fcus/?taken-by=berezhok11

 

[Cherub721]

I misread that as Mishin and Berezhnaya having a baby together.

 

[Ka3sha]

I misread that as Mishin and Berezhnaya having a baby together.

 

[rfisher]

My hope would be that to advance the sport, some of them would learn how to sustain their success and extend it.

Quads will decidely not do that.

I think the most valuable thing for the sport is mature skaters who master many aspects of the sport. Skaters who jump up and then are gone aren't doing that.

To my mind, though its only a couple of years for her, Evgenia is accomplishing a start on that. Of course she may decide not to stay in competitively if she wins Oly gold. That's a different matter but is always disappointing as a fan of the sport. (Its one of the things I resent about the damn Olympics.)

Not going to happen in Russia. Too many younger skaters looking to make their marks. No skater is going to have the opportunity to mature like Kostner or even Wagner. Let's face it, Wagner would have been gone years ago if there had been anybody with real success as juniors. Osmond was lucky there nobody in Canada to move past her while she was recovering from injury. The Russian girls either achieve success in a couple of years or they're out. There are skaters who would be medalists at US nationals who aren't even going to make the Russian nationals this year. Russian junior girls didn't even get a 2nd event unless they won their first event and 5/6 of the skaters in the GPF are Russian. Skaters like Gubanova who have the potential to become a wonderful skater may not have the chance because they need a little time.

 

[BittyBug]

Skaters like Gubanova who have the potential to become a wonderful skater may not have the chance because they need a little time.

Gubanova is already a wonderful skater, but I know what you mean.

 

[BlueRidge]

I don't see why it has to be that way. They aren't all equal. Of course its theoretically possible for a more talented skater to arise no matter how talented a current one is, but its not necessarily going to happen. I think they just aren't valuing longevity. Of course with the way the bottom drops out for young women when their bodies change, there's a reason for that. Yet, you still have several not so young skaters with international assignments for Russia. You have Leonova for one and you have people like Radionova and Tuk who have persevered through the body changes and are staying enough ahead of many young ones to get international assignments.

 

[rfisher]

Well, the 2nd wave of youngsters are just now coming into seniors. Leonova skated a personal best and couldn't get near the podium. Liza finished a distant 4th in her event even with her 3A. I won't say it's impossible, but I doubt she'll make another Europeans or the Olympic team. Russia will keep 3 European spots and 3 Olympic spots for some time. They keep a maximum number of JGP spots which gives the juniors a chance. But, when the numbers are as great as they are, someone is out. Russian nationals only has 12 slots and very good skaters aren't going to be there. I enjoy the juniors and hope for the best for my favorites accepting, they might not get a chance to become mature skaters.

 

[Ka3sha]

Russian nationals only has 12 slots and very good skaters aren't going to be there. I enjoy the juniors and hope for the best for my favorites accepting, they might not get a chance to become mature skaters.

18 slots and it's still not enough

 

[Vash01]

Do. Not. Like. 3A. Either.

Do you want the sport to go back to the 1970s? The First Lady (Ito) to land the 3A at worlds in 1989, and it was impressive that she could do it. Same with Tonya, Mao. Why not celebrate their athleticism? FS is an Olympic sport. Stagnation will be fatal to it.

I am curious- do you dislike only ladies attempting quads and 3As or do you dislike men doing those too?

 

[oleada]

Some thoughts on longevity (not picking on you, BR! In fact, your post made me think). It's mostly a ramble.

Figure skating skews young - but the Russian ladies field is even young among that. Leonova is 26 and Tukt is 20, and they are the oldest Russian skaters at their nationals. That's because between Slutskaya and the emergence of Sotnikova/Tuktamysheva there was a whole lot of nothing - I mean, the name Crapova sisters didn't come out of nowhere and the Russian national champion didn't make the cut for Europeans one of those years. The exception being Leonova, of course. So in part, there's no longevity because there hasn't been a lot of time for there to be. It seems like Tukt has been around forever but that's partly because she's been competing at Russian Nationals since age 11. That's no longer allowed, and the minimum age is 14, unless the skater makes the JGPF. I think that plus the bonuses that the Russian fed is giving for spins (and quads and 3A ) should encourage more well rounded skaters and longevity.

Tukt and Leonova have gotten a lot of support, even through some leaner years. Leonova had an awful year last year, and still got two CS event and two GPs. Same for Tukt. In fact, I think all their senior ladies got the opportunity to compete at a CS and a GP - unless, like Pogo or Tsurskaya, they were not ready to do so due to injury. So if you are internationally competitive enough, like Tukt and Leonova are, you get assignments and federation support. Even juniors who didn't get a 2nd event or were JGP alternates ( Gubanova, Guliakova, Vasilieva) got some sort or international B event. I imagine should Pogo or Radionova or Sotskova not make the World/Olympics team, they will get GP events should they meet the international criteria. But the GP spots are not unlimited - only a max of 8 skaters will get 2 events.

It's also worth noting that despite having a great personality on the ice, Leonova doesn't have the best basic skating; her jump technique isn't particularly sound; her spins have never been that great and her programs are very empty. Tukt has similar issues with spins, basics and empty programs, despite being a wonderful jumper. That is always going to limit their scores. They're not Kostner or Kim or Kwan, who diluted their jumps as they got older but still got good scores based on PCS because they have other great qualities. They shouldn't automatically get better PCS because they are older when it's not deserved (on a similar note, I remember complaints during Russian Nationals that older age eligible skaters were getting higher PCS despite not being as good). Maturity is also not a PCS criteria.

The depth in Russian ladies is really outstanding right now and I guess we shall see what happens with skaters like Radionova or Medvedeva when there are skaters who can match them technically and are beating them consistently. I imagine the Federation's main concern is to win and have a sustainable program, and not so much who is doing the winning. If skaters like Zagitova who is fresh off of juniors are winning GP golds, why should the federation not support them? Wagner, Kostner and even Asada had a lot of time to develop their artistry and clean up their technical issues, but they never had as much competition. And I know that the 3A and quad attempts are not popular among some, but when every skater in the field is landing 7 triples and multiple 3-3, you need something to make you stand out and give you and advantage.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, you can have skaters who are so entrenched in the top that other teams don't see a possibility to move up and quit (see: ice dance, Canada).

Finally, I also think in any sport there's a lot of drop off between those who are competitive in juniors and then in seniors. You see this in tennis all the time, too. Wagner is still around, but Zhang has never made a world team and what ever happened to Juliana Canarozzo or Megan Oster? Kanako Murakami had a good international career but Risa Shoji? Yukiko Fujisawa? who?

Tl; dr version: I have no idea what's going to happen and probably know nothing. Just enjoy the skating for now, I guess.

 

[hanca]

But the GP spots are not unlimited - only a max of 8 skaters will get 2 events.

In theory, max 9 skaters can get two spots each. Six events and max three from the same country per event. Saying that, it is only theory. In reality, the host countries can make sure that they don’t invite three Russian ladies. Especially those countries who have strong ladies and want to help their ladies to get to GPF. Canada and Japan (and possibly USA) may be a bit reluctant to invite three Russian ladies, or at least pick the weakest ones, like Leonova.