From Russia With Love [#39]: Into Winter 2021

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hanca

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Yes. At the Olympics three of the four gold medals are already pretty much a done deal (and fourth to go one of several skaters from the same country) - although my heart will skip a beat when S/H skate. But I can't see them losing the gold unless they really muck it up, and I doubt they will do that on home ice.

When the gold is decided, as it often is, my attention turns to the fight for silver and bronze.
Are they? Can you forecast who you think will win? We may be surprised. Who is supposed to win is not always who actually wins. Ask Medvedeva!
 

michalle

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I don't think the gold is at all decided in any of the disciplines. Hanyu will not give up so easily. In pairs, home ice is a lot of pressure that has undone competitors before. We have no idea which of the ladies will win. Ice dance should be tight at the top. This is actually looking like a really exciting Olympics.
 

Bigbird

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Because from the position of a spectator, I like the drama of not knowing who the medal would go to.
And the word objectively…there is nothing objective in ice dance scoring!
Well that is true. The objectivity aspect of things.This ********* has been messing with my appreciation of dance basics. Sigh.
 

hanca

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I don't think the gold is at all decided in any of the disciplines. Hanyu will not give up so easily. In pairs, home ice is a lot of pressure that has undone competitors before. We have no idea which of the ladies will win. Ice dance should be tight at the top. This is actually looking like a really exciting Olympics.
That’s exactly what I think. Even if we know that there is a good chance that one of Tutberidze’s girls may get gold, with the number of potential skaters that could come on top, which one of them it would be? Even if someone like Trusova had such technical difficulty that she could outjump everyone, do we know in advance that she would control her nerves and land everything, or would she make mistake in SP same as Mao Asada and then be unable to catch up, no matter what she lands? (With the level of competition in ladies, we don’t even know if Trusova will be selected to compete at the Olympics. One mistakes at the nationals and she may be out of top three…easy done.)

Same in pairs, the top three pairs are roughly at the same level if they are at their top shape, and it is only about who delivers. Add into it Sui/Han who has the highest scoring potential, but will have a huge pressure on them and have had so many injuries that the chance are that they won’t be hundred percent injury freee… and add into it any dark horse, for example we could be surprised by James/Radford… this is not ice dance - they already have the reputation (even if not through skating together), so if they do all elements, they will be getting very decent scores.

In men, I wouldn’t be so certain who will win. Even though Chen looks like he is better at this stage, it will be about who delivers at that particular night when it counts. It can be Hanyu, Kagiyama, Uno…
 

Vash01

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I don't think the gold is at all decided in any of the disciplines. Hanyu will not give up so easily. In pairs, home ice is a lot of pressure that has undone competitors before. We have no idea which of the ladies will win. Ice dance should be tight at the top. This is actually looking like a really exciting Olympics.
I have to disagree about the men. Chen has been unbeatable this quad. That gold has his name on it. Nobody else has the number of quads and consistency to beat him.

S&H are still the favorites for gold. I have not seen them falter due to pressure or injuries. They can be challenged by the three Russian pairs But S&H are likely to prevail, though their chances are not as high as Chen's. Others are long shots ( US and Can pairs can challenge for bronze but not gold)

ice dance will be close Between the top two. This is undecided. Couple years ago it looked like the gold was P&C's to lose.

Ladies are dominated by Russians but I would not count out the Japanese. S.Korea and US may be long shots. From the Russians we don't know which one will dominate this season, but I wouldn't bet against Anna. Still, There is plenty of uncertainty.
 

hanca

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I have to disagree about the men. Chen has been unbeatable this quad. That gold has his name on it. Nobody else has the number of quads and consistency to beat him.
Isn’t that exactly what we said about Medvedeva four years ago, just before the olympic season started? And yet it somehow didn’t guarantee her the gold medal.
 

Japanfan

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Are they? Can you forecast who you think will win? We may be surprised. Who is supposed to win is not always who actually wins. Ask Medvedeva!

Men: Nathan Chen
Pairs: S/H
Dance: P/C
Ladies: One of the Russian phenoms

Now, I do hope I might be surprised - though I dearly do want S/H to take the gold.

I also have to remind myself that the capacity to be surprised is essential to watching FS.
 

hanca

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Ladies: One of the Russian phenoms
That’s not very specific considering there is about 7 skaters who could be the one and we don’t even know which 3 of them will be sent.
Valieva
Sherbakova
Trusova
Usacheva
Khromykh
Kostornaya
Tuktamysheva
 

hanca

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Stop trying to make the Stepsisters as contenders
its "Not Gonna Happen"
Didn’t we say that about Zagitova? Even though she was a junior world champion, it was hard to imagine that in her first senior season she would beat the ‘unbeatable’ Medvedeva…
 

love_skate2011

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Didn’t we say that about Zagitova? Even though she was a junior world champion, it was hard to imagine that in her first senior season she would beat the ‘unbeatable’ Medvedeva…
Zagitova was already poised to be contender to Medvedeva, maybe not beat her but was a contender.
Its not the same with hyping Kromykh who landed a fluke quad or with quadless/non triple axel Usacheva

You also have to consider Diana, Daria and Polina are cursed names
and no female skaters have been successful with these names.
 

Cherub721

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Didn’t we say that about Zagitova? Even though she was a junior world champion, it was hard to imagine that in her first senior season she would beat the ‘unbeatable’ Medvedeva…

There were already signs by this point that Zagitova had that potential. When she took second to Med at Nationals the year before the Olympics she already had higher TES.
 

hanca

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Zagitova was already poised to be contender to Medvedeva, maybe not beat her but was a contender.
Its not the same with hyping Kromykh who landed a fluke quad or with quadless/non triple axel Usacheva

You also have to consider Diana, Daria and Polina are cursed names
and no female skaters have been successful with these names.
:rolleyes: Oh dear, what can I say…. I didn’t know that only skaters with certain names are allowed to win the Olympics.
 

Vash01

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Isn’t that exactly what we said about Medvedeva four years ago, just before the olympic season started? And yet it somehow didn’t guarantee her the gold medal.
Alina was already there and someone had said to me in the pre-Olympic year that she could beat Medvedeva. Besides, Med had been winning for two years,not four like Chen, who has the tech advantage Over everyone, including Hanyu. Med was winning due to her consistency. Alina had more tech difficulty and consistency so she had a better chance of beating Med. As soon as Zhenya got an injury the RSF switched their power to Alina. The USFS would never do that to their top skater.
 

kwanfan1818

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Ask Medvedeva
Ask when? In March 2017 or in the 2017-18 season? She was injured in the Fall while Zagitova was cleaning up, including a six point lead at 2018 Euros. I don't know anyone who assumed Medvedeva would beat Zagitova, only that, under the pressure, Zagitova could lose it.
 
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Sylvia

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I'm sure Tinami :( would have found and posted many clips from the recent "Opera on Ice" shows at the Yubileyny Sports Palace in St. Petersburg - here's one attendee's 10 clips: https://www.instagram.com/p/CPGkPVjMHsG/
Performers included Yagudin, Sotnikova, Samodurova, Guliakova, Ustimkina/Rogonov, Martiusheva/Gavrin, etc. with "arias performed by soloists from the Bolshoi, Mariinsky and other musical theaters."

Re-posting here from Sofia Samodurova's fan thread:
[2 group photos] https://www.instagram.com/p/CPIHRq7pARR/
"For me this is the first experience of performing a live performance program featuring opera singers ...
And now I'm already in Kislovodsk, startng preparations for a new interesting season."
ETA link to Guliakova's photos from the show: https://www.instagram.com/p/CPH-5hbJS5a/
 
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Marco

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I would say RUS (or whatever name they get to compete in) has over 95% chance on the gold in the ladies, regardless of who she is; around 50% in pairs and dance with veteran champions from CHN and FRA respectively competing for that gold (as co-favorites or very close second favorites since these champions didn't compete more in the past 2 seasons); less than 10% chance in the mens; but over 98% chance on the gold in the team event.
 

starrynight

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In the jumping disciplines anything can happen.

In dance though, bar a splat on the twizzles or a big fall, the judges can cover up levels and they can patch up things with GOE. The winners can very much be preordained.
 

hanca

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I would say RUS (or whatever name they get to compete in) has over 95% chance on the gold in the ladies, regardless of who she is; around 50% in pairs and dance with veteran champions from CHN and FRA respectively competing for that gold (as co-favorites or very close second favorites since these champions didn't compete more in the past 2 seasons); less than 10% chance in the mens; but over 98% chance on the gold in the team event.
I would say 90% chance in ladies, and in dance and pairs only 40% chance. In pairs they have a chance only if Sui/Han make mistake, otherwise if everyone went clean, the gold would go to Sui/Han. The same in ice dance - France definitely has a better chance to get the gold than Russia.The fact that these champions didn’t compete for two years will not hurt them; it didn’t hurt Virtue/Moir when they came back.
 

Bigbird

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In the jumping disciplines anything can happen.

In dance though, bar a splat on the twizzles or a big fall, the judges can cover up levels and they can patch up things with GOE. The winners can very much be preordained.
Just check the panel of judges. There will be absolutely no intrigue in that disciple whatsoever unless a couple teams really up their games with phenomenal programmes and performances. I'm hoping that it will be hot. If I/K did it in 2014 maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised in 2022.
 

starrynight

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Just check the panel of judges. There will be absolutely no intrigue in that disciple whatsoever unless a couple teams really up their games with phenomenal programmes and performances. I'm hoping that it will be hot. If I/K did it in 2014 maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised in 2022.

Not quite sure what happened to dance this quadrennial... It's like V/M retired and then time stood still. The rise of Sinitsina/Katsalapov has occurred, but it hasn't been drenched in the drama of the uber wars I've been used to in dance.
 
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Sylvia

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Vasilisa Kaganovskaya - Valery Angelopol: "We have the same characters, we are two leaders" (May 24):
Junior dance couple Vasilisa Kaganovskaya - Valery Angelopol attracted attention this season. Pupils of Angelica Krylova performed at the stages of the Russian Cup, were selected for the national championship, where they skated not very well, but in the final of the Russian Cup they finished the season on a positive note.
The skaters talked about their work on staging new programs, preparing for test skates, studying, life off the ice in an interview with Olga ERMOLINA and Tatiana FLADE.
Valera, did you come to figure skating because of your uncle (skater Oleg Ovsyannikov)?
Valery Angelopol: I started figure skating because of my grandmother. Now deceased. She was very fond of figure skating and brought me to the skating rink, as she once brought Oleg Vladimirovich. Grandmother dreamed that there was another skater in the family, and her dream came true.
- Once I came to the skating rink in Odintsovo, I saw Oleg Ovsyannikov, and he said that my nephew was training here.
Valery: Yes, I started dancing with Alexei Gorshkov. But we hid for a long time, and I still don’t want to advertise who my uncle is, so as not to associate our work with the one whose relative I am, that I am being pulled.
K/A placed 2nd in the Russian Cup Final in early March 2021 - their Romeo & Juliet FD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7V-fxxnPhQ
 

michalle

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They and Panfilova/Rylov are especially so promising. I've seen young pairs/dance teams struggle with the pressure of expectations before so I'm trying to keep my expectations minimal, but I'd love to see both teams really break out post-Beijing.
 

Bigbird

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Vasilisa Kaganovskaya - Valery Angelopol: "We have the same characters, we are two leaders" (May 24):


K/A placed 2nd in the Russian Cup Final in early March 2021 - their Romeo & Juliet FD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7V-fxxnPhQ
The most interesting Russian free dance senior or junior from season 2020/21.
 

Ananas Astra

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Vasilisa Kaganovskaya - Valery Angelopol: "We have the same characters, we are two leaders" (May 24):


K/A placed 2nd in the Russian Cup Final in early March 2021 - their Romeo & Juliet FD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7V-fxxnPhQ
They are also both ridiculously good-looking. A pair to watch, definitely.
They might have sparked my interest in Ice Dance again. Might.
 
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