Ashley Wagner Cheer Thread #3: The Subject of Tonight's Lecture...

Is it the CW that AW can medal at the Olympics, IF she skates her current jump layout squeaky clean w/ all the proper transitions and levels on non-jump elements. I guess I'm a little more pessimistic.
 
olympic said:
Is it the CW that AW can medal at the Olympics, IF she skates her current jump layout squeaky clean w/ all the proper transitions and levels on non-jump elements. I guess I'm a little more pessimistic.
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I would say totally possible. Not likely... but totally possible. Particularly if she wins nationals and goes into the Olympics as US #1, I think she'd get the benefit of the doubt more on rotations.

ETA: This is the "cheer" thread, right? ;)
 
Definitely possible. AW has been held back by mistakes and underrotations and spin GOE these days. If she skated squeaky clean at Worlds 2016 (where she did certainly have hometown advantage), she would have been world champion. You can calculate it easily based on the protocols. She'd have had enough.

I think top 3 is do-able, but only if she maximized all elements and levels, and all jumps squeaky clean. I do think it's highly unlikely though.

...GPF qualification would also help too. But I don't have a lot of faith in her at Skate America. I just don't think she's in form yet.
 
My fantasy layout for Ashley:

2axel
3flip3toe
2axel
3flip1/2loop3sal
3loop2loop
3loop
3lutz

or a slightly easier one:

2axel
3flip3toe
3sal
3loop-2axel
3flip2toe2loop
3loop
3lutz
 
@olympic You are most certainly correct in remembering the debut of ML 1.0 (though, TBH, there really wasn't ever a 2.0 and something tells me 3.0 is little more than a talking point... prove me wrong, Ashley.) in 2014; Japan Open was a disaster, but her GP events were worse and it certainly seemed as though she might have held on a season too long as the lutz looked like it was gone for good, she didn't seem to be attempting a 3-3 of any sort, and fans were pretty much using ML as an example of why the change to allow lyrics was a terrible one. But, things changed at the GPF when she nailed her new LP layout complete with 3f-3t, 3z, and a new 3-1-3 for a bronze in what most thought was a guaranteed 6th-place field. And, she ultimately went into Shanghai as the 2nd best skater in the world.

I usually chime in every year when the annual "Ashley is losing it" hysteria is in full-swing during the fall; I hate that she crushed all of the momentum she had following 2016 Worlds with a mediocre season last year, because maybe then people might finally remember that she has never blown the roof off the GP series itself until the final, which she tied MK as having made the most consecutive GPF and her placements there over three quads are remarkable. My favorite uber activity is watching the 10 or so LPs she has skated where the British commentators exclaim that they've never seen her skate so well. :) It seems fans are not the only ones with selective memory when it comes to Ash.
2009 Nationals LP, 2010 Nationals LP, 2012 4CC LP, 2012 Worlds LP, 2012 GP LP (forget which event), 2013 WTT LP, 2014 Worlds LP, 2014 GPF LP, 2015 Nationals LP, 2015 Worlds LP, 2015 WTT LP, 2015 GPF LP, 2016 Worlds LP... LOL.

U.S. fans cried out for a leader in the days where Czisny would win Nats by default in between breakthroughs by younger skaters. I don't know what else to call someone whose record at the major events since 2012 has been 4-5-7-7-5-2-7, including the 3rd best FS in 2012 and 2015, 4th best in 2014, and 2nd best in 2016. She really should have a 2nd World medal from 2012; Leonova's marks are unjustifiable. And, she really let a silver slip away in 2015. But, I think the judges screwed her a bit in all three 7's. Her 3F-3T was massacred at both Sochi and Saitama and I think her PCS were unfairly marked for bringing back S&D. Then, despite going clean in the SP last year in Helsinki, she was nudged out of the final group and I am not so sure that was the right call.
 
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Marco said:
My fantasy layout for Ashley:

2axel
3flip3toe
2axel
3flip1/2loop3sal
3loop2loop
3loop
3lutz

or a slightly easier one:

2axel
3flip3toe
3sal
3loop-2axel
3flip2toe2loop
3loop
3lutz
Click to expand...

What benefit do either of those two layouts give her in the LP? The second scenario would leave her worse off than now because the 3Loop-2Axel sequence would be hit with the 0.8 sequence multiplier.
 
My fear with Ashley is that despite the slow start being typical for her, when combined with what looks like deteriorating tech and SS *and* a switch back to TWO old programs, she will simply run out of time to get the benefit of the doubt if she were to pull out clean skates in South Korea. Had she made GPF last year, squeaked out at least a 5th place at Worlds, and had two fresh programs for this year, her PCS would be at the level of Medvedeva and Kostner IMO. The judges were clear about this as the 2015-2016 season progressed. She absolutely should have been able to go into these OG with a nice cushion in PCS to cover for any < or ! she might suffer.

The fact that PCS will be a concern even if she nails her programs because of how stale they are is a problem that was so easily avoidable and being handed to her on a literal silver platter.

My "fantasy" is for her to skate lights out at SA with the lutz back to 2015 standards and spins all at level 4. The protocols will say a LOT if that happened. An 'e,' and two '<' will mean "game over." But, a "!" and 0-1 "<" with PCS that at least compete with an Osmond, and things get interesting. It just shouldn't be this much of a crapshoot, though. I am fine with her layout as is with a corrected 3Z takeoff, but I'd love to see the spread eagle and falling leaf exit that @Coco mentioned. Both were major highlights for her in 2013 and I don't know why they went MIA esp considering the constant comments of her lacking TR.
 
antmanb said:
What benefit do either of those two layouts give her in the LP? The second scenario would leave her worse off than now because the 3Loop-2Axel sequence would be hit with the 0.8 sequence multiplier.
Click to expand...

That she can rotate the jumps. The loop-sal has not been clean in a looong time.
 
JJS5056 said:
My "fantasy" is for her to skate lights out at SA with the lutz back to 2015 standards and spins all at level 4. The protocols will say a LOT if that happened. An 'e,' and two '<' will mean "game over." But, a "!" and 0-1 "<" with PCS that at least compete with an Osmond, and things get interesting. It just shouldn't be this much of a crapshoot, though. I am fine with her layout as is with a corrected 3Z takeoff, but I'd love to see the spread eagle and falling leaf exit that @Coco mentioned. Both were major highlights for her in 2013 and I don't know why they went MIA esp considering the constant comments of her lacking TR.
Click to expand...

The thing that's driving me crazy about the tech panels is their inconsistency in "e" calls. Ashley's 3z at this year's Skate Canada was very clearly on a flat edge - at worst - and of the same caliber as her lutzes in the '15-'16 season. Heck, BESP (who normally questions her edge on that jump) reviewed the replay and even endorsed the fact that it was at worst on a flat edge and shouldn't get an "e" call. On the other hand, Osmond, Medvedeva, etc. are getting away with "e" calls for the most part. Its ridiculous and makes these panels lose utter credibility.
 
Wandering around the internet - Here is a 'Hindi Sad Diamonds' cut from Moulin Rouge on youtube

https://youtu.be/oLukJBT79M4

It's too bad AW doesn't use the first 1:45 minutes of the song: Same basic beat but a little more instrumentation and power. That could get the stadium rocking. Her music is from the back half of this cut.
 
Marco said:
That she can rotate the jumps. The loop-sal has not been clean in a looong time.
Click to expand...

The layout isn't the issue when it comes to rotation. And your first scenario envisaged a 3F-half loop-3S which is even less likely to be rotated.
 
She has had much better history of making rotations on those 3loop-2axel / 3flip-2axel sequences than the 3loop-3sal.

I suggested flip-sal because her loop doesn't seem to be as secure anymore whereas her flip is still being landed with a lot of flow.
 
artsciboy said:
The thing that's driving me crazy about the tech panels is their inconsistency in "e" calls. Ashley's 3z at this year's Skate Canada was very clearly on a flat edge - at worst - and of the same caliber as her lutzes in the '15-'16 season. Heck, BESP (who normally questions her edge on that jump) reviewed the replay and even endorsed the fact that it was at worst on a flat edge and shouldn't get an "e" call. On the other hand, Osmond, Medvedeva, etc. are getting away with "e" calls for the most part. Its ridiculous and makes these panels lose utter credibility.
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THIS. I had not listened to the British commentary of her SC LP and am horrible at detecting edges. Almost every Wagner lutz has been followed with a "that'll be looked at" or comment alluding to a flutz in the 5 years of coverage I have watched from across the pond. When they said *slight outside edge* I was floored. Of course, they meant it as a criticism in that it needs to be deeper, but for a realistic uber, I'll take anything that isn't a clear inside edge. It sounds as though that jump deserved, at worst, a -1 reduction in GOE for the entry, but instead dropped all the way to a mandatory -2 reduction AND reduced value, blowing right past a flat edge interpretation AND a possible switch interpretation to a definite switch. It absolutely isn't fair and I honestly think the 'e' and reduction of BV should be eliminated, with the judges given the chance to evaluate the edge and its impact on the total quality of the jump when assessing GOE. I am sure all would reduce by -1 for "!" calls, but I do think clear changes of edge should be notated and deducted so I am okay with that. In a discipline that is maxing out technically unless these RUS quads really do pan out, skaters will still have incentive to correct the edge without the BV penalty.

Another idea is to allow for "e" calls and BV reduction in the SP only. Perhaps even getting rid of the "<," too, in the LP and calling only egregious edge violations and URs, while allowing the minor offenses be handled by the judges' GOE.

Anyway, I would not be surprised to see AW win Skate America, or deserve a win and be held back by questionable calls and PCS. Her LP at SC was technically one her best season debuts, and with SA around the time of the GPF where she has been excellent, I have a good feeling. If she does skate really well and is held down, I will be even more upset over the artistic approach to this season. I wonder if there is any chance of a new SP? I loved HHCC part 1, but she struggled with it all the way to Worlds so it 1. has me on edge, and 2. would be a less intensive challenge to overhaul than the LP. OTOH, I have hated every other SP she has ever had...

...which leads me to, why have they NOT considered replacing at least 1 of the musical selections in MR? I think the 2nd half is iconic and needs to stay, but the first half is basically just checking off her jumps and arm choreography... new music and new arm movements would come across so much fresher to me. I think she should also totally reinvent her CH sequence/ending. I don't know where I would put the final spin, but if she ended with 3Z-2A > split falling leaf into a fwd spiral and ending with a 'back spiral with hand on the ice and spin' [please know what I mean here, because I feel moronic typing that], it would again be a play on perception because of course the ending is the last impression and showing something new AND improved could only help. Alternatively, she could swap the solo spin and tack that onto a new CH sequence which would not be as big of a change perception-wise, but may help with her achieving all L4.
 
Does anyone think that a Muse SP would be seen differently than the return of HHCC? I am on the fence, but am almost leaning toward suggesting it because it seems like the safest and only realistic chance of getting a program swapped at this stage. Again, perception is key, so even calling it "Muse II" could help and PR around some lame interpretation that stages it as a sequel might give it enough of a 'new' edge. I would need to reevaluate her PCS last year vs. this year, though, because I don't remember how Muse was judged anyway. I am rambling now, but the more I think of it, a new SP should have been the immediate next step after switching to ML. Maybe even LLL could have worked? I might be trying too throw some Shizuka karma onto Ashley, but others have done it, too... Mao being the only one I can think of at the moment with her Masquerade remix during her 2-year dark phase.
 
On the issue of edge changes - I tend to be ok with Wagner's lutz - it has gotten better and cleaner over the years (I honestly didn't think she deserved the call in her last LP and it is so clearly different from her flip. I take issue with the skaters (like a lot of the Japanese ladies) that have the exact same entrance into both the flip and lutz - wobbling from inside to outside on both jumps. To me there is no clear attempt to do a different jump in those examples, whereas Wagner has totally different mechanics going into her flip and her lutz.
 
JJS5056 said:
THIS. I had not listened to the British commentary of her SC LP and am horrible at detecting edges. Almost every Wagner lutz has been followed with a "that'll be looked at" or comment alluding to a flutz in the 5 years of coverage I have watched from across the pond. When they said *slight outside edge* I was floored. Of course, they meant it as a criticism in that it needs to be deeper, but for a realistic uber, I'll take anything that isn't a clear inside edge. It sounds as though that jump deserved, at worst, a -1 reduction in GOE for the entry, but instead dropped all the way to a mandatory -2 reduction AND reduced value, blowing right past a flat edge interpretation AND a possible switch interpretation to a definite switch. It absolutely isn't fair and I honestly think the 'e' and reduction of BV should be eliminated, with the judges given the chance to evaluate the edge and its impact on the total quality of the jump when assessing GOE. I am sure all would reduce by -1 for "!" calls, but I do think clear changes of edge should be notated and deducted so I am okay with that. In a discipline that is maxing out technically unless these RUS quads really do pan out, skaters will still have incentive to correct the edge without the BV penalty.

Another idea is to allow for "e" calls and BV reduction in the SP only. Perhaps even getting rid of the "<," too, in the LP and calling only egregious edge violations and URs, while allowing the minor offenses be handled by the judges' GOE.

Anyway, I would not be surprised to see AW win Skate America, or deserve a win and be held back by questionable calls and PCS. Her LP at SC was technically one her best season debuts, and with SA around the time of the GPF where she has been excellent, I have a good feeling. If she does skate really well and is held down, I will be even more upset over the artistic approach to this season. I wonder if there is any chance of a new SP? I loved HHCC part 1, but she struggled with it all the way to Worlds so it 1. has me on edge, and 2. would be a less intensive challenge to overhaul than the LP. OTOH, I have hated every other SP she has ever had...

...which leads me to, why have they NOT considered replacing at least 1 of the musical selections in MR? I think the 2nd half is iconic and needs to stay, but the first half is basically just checking off her jumps and arm choreography... new music and new arm movements would come across so much fresher to me. I think she should also totally reinvent her CH sequence/ending. I don't know where I would put the final spin, but if she ended with 3Z-2A > split falling leaf into a fwd spiral and ending with a 'back spiral with hand on the ice and spin' [please know what I mean here, because I feel moronic typing that], it would again be a play on perception because of course the ending is the last impression and showing something new AND improved could only help. Alternatively, she could swap the solo spin and tack that onto a new CH sequence which would not be as big of a change perception-wise, but may help with her achieving all L4.
Click to expand...


It made me angry that Ashley received that e call when Medvedeva got this call only once in her senior career while having much worse violation all the time. ! is also infrequent, I remember her lutz in WTT from DEEP INSIDE edge with no call at all and 2.0 + GOE on top of it, distasteful that they willingly ignore that. I guess it depends on your name and politicking. Some skaters just receive that privilege by being their darlings while some other get hammered like if there's no tomorrow. That bias & inconsistency is neverending. I doubt it's going to change unless the incompetent (& corrupted) people are swept aside and stop being involved. But it would not be shocking for me if ISU & the highest officials were corrupted on its own, after all we know about IAAF (athletics) & FIFA scandals.
 
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I'm not posting every Ashley/Olympics-related article in this thread but here is a Q&A with Sports Illustrated that was published on Nov. 3rd: https://www.si.com/olympics/2017/11/03/ashley-wagner-figure-skating-2018-olympics
The time I actually felt the most pressure was when I was going into the 2016 World Championships. I was injured and the championships were on U.S. soil, and the ladies had a medal drought for 10 years. I was sitting in fourth place, but I skated last so I knew the door was open for me to get a medal. So I went out and used that pressure to kind of fuel me to a silver medal. I've actually been working with Bridgestone lately, focusing on my clutch performance for a campaign of theirs, and that was mine.
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Here's her Bridgestone TV commercial: https://www.ispot.tv/ad/wlqH/bridgestone-potenza-tires-quintuple-axel-featuring-ashley-wagner
:lol: at her "The last rotation is always the hardest" line.
 
There is a little bit from Ashley’s teleconference at the end of this Icenetwork article. She says she put in the time and effort to make sure she is more conditioned so the things that got lost at Skate Canada are more apparent. I hope we will see actual updates to the programs as well as better performances this weekend.

http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2017/11/21/262269462
 
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I echo everyone who is concerned about lack of training time versus endorsements and media coverage but this is the time for her to capitalize on her name recognition. She does need to make money after all. Hopefully she stands on the medal podium at Skate America but it's more important she's on top of the Nationals podium more than anything else at this point.
 
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