2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

farahfan said:
I assume he could do a "light" SP and then ramp up the FS if necessary. :)
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I don't think so, but I'm also operating under the assumption that Yuma will be doing the SP for Team Japan. Going light in the SP would almost certainly give Yuma the SP win & Japan an extra point.
 
Obviously, Japan will split ladies and men.

Can a team bring in a skater that did not qualify in individual? Yes, correct? so say like 🇮🇹 could bring in Pezzeta to split the women if they wanted to? To give LaNaGu a break? Obviously, Italy will not split pairs or dance, but if they wanted they could bring in a skater who did not qualify to help in the team correct?
 
AngieNikodinovLove (ANL) said:
Obviously, Japan will split ladies and men.

Can a team bring in a skater that did not qualify in individual? Yes, correct? so say like 🇮🇹 could bring in Pezzeta to split the women if they wanted to? To give LaNaGu a break? Obviously, Italy will not split pairs or dance, but if they wanted they could bring in a skater who did not qualify to help in the team correct?
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No.
 
AngieNikodinovLove (ANL) said:
I thought they could

Did Poland actually qualify a man in singles or an ice dance team?
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Poland qualified a man, woman & pairs team at Worlds last year.

Assuming France gets UZB's pairs spot for the individual event, that will open up 2 additional athlete quotas for the TE and since Korea doesn't have a pairs team, it would default to Poland & they would send a dance team for the TE only.
AngieNikodinovLove (ANL) said:
Obviously, Japan will split ladies and men.
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Why are you making that assumption? Men, yes, I think it's split seeing as Yuma & Shun are both strong medal contenders; but Pairs goes before Women the 2nd weekend and we know MiuKih are dealing with injuries. Japan may decide to split pairs & men instead of men & women.
 
The problem with Ilia doing a "light" version of his FS is that that is just not who Ilia is. He won't want to get out there and do something less than he is capable of. And maybe even risk getting beaten by someone for doing so.

My understanding is that the USFS does not want the Team Event to diminish someone's chances for an individual medal. It's a shame that Men's is first - but since it is and since Ilia is obviously in contention for an individual medal, I'm not sure they would ask him to do both Team events since it could jeopardize his individual medal chances.
 
ChillSkate said:
The problem with Ilia doing a "light" version of his FS is that that is just not who Ilia is. He won't want to get out there and do something less than he is capable of. And maybe even risk getting beaten by someone for doing so.

My understanding is that the USFS does not want the Team Event to diminish someone's chances for an individual medal. It's a shame that Men's is first - but since it is and since Ilia is obviously in contention for an individual medal, I'm not sure they would ask him to do both Team events since it could jeopardize his individual medal chances.
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Men are, technically, the 2nd individual event, but they have their SP on the day between the RD & FD and then short-track uses the arena the day after the FD, so there's a 2-day rest between the Men's SP & FS.
 
Quick refresher on which countries have multiple entries in the individual events and therefore have an option of splitting the Team Event assignments should they make the FS/FD phase:

USA - 3 men, 3 women, 2 pairs, 3 dance teams
JPN - 3 men, 3 women, 2 pairs, 1 dance team (TE only)
ITA - 2 men, 1 woman, 2 pairs, 1 dance team
GEO - 1 man, 1 woman, 1 pair, 1 dance team
CAN - 1 man, 1 woman, 2 pairs, 3 dance teams
FRA - 2 men, 1 woman, 1 pair (TE only at this time), 2 dance teams
GBR - 1 man (TE only), 1 woman, 1 pair, 2 dance teams
CHN - 1 man, 1 woman, 1 pair, 1 dance team
KOR - 2 men, 2 women, 0 pairs, 1 dance team
POL - 1 man, 1 woman, 1 pair, 0 dance teams (at this time, likely will have a TE entry once FRA gets the pairs individual spot relinquished by UZB)
 
ChillSkate said:
The problem with Ilia doing a "light" version of his FS is that that is just not who Ilia is. He won't want to get out there and do something less than he is capable of. And maybe even risk getting beaten by someone for doing so.

My understanding is that the USFS does not want the Team Event to diminish someone's chances for an individual medal. It's a shame that Men's is first - but since it is and since Ilia is obviously in contention for an individual medal, I'm not sure they would ask him to do both Team events since it could jeopardize his individual medal chances.
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No way is Ilia doing the FS in team event. He was left off team in 2022, and I can't see him sacrificing his stamina to ensure a TE gold. Thereto, if Amber wins Nationals, it will be a tough choice between Alysa and Amber for both segments of the TE. Alysa is reigning World/Grand Prix Champion who missed out on a well deserved TE Gold in 2022. Glenn would be a three time National Champion who is higher in WR. However, I think based on body of work and consistency, Alysa should get the nod.
 
Bulletsdad said:
No way is Ilia doing the FS in team event. He was left off team in 2022, and I can't see him sacrificing his stamina to ensure a TE gold. Thereto, if Amber wins Nationals, it will be a tough choice between Alysa and Amber for both segments of the TE. Alysa is reigning World/Grand Prix Champion who missed out on a well deserved TE Gold in 2022. Glenn would be a three time National Champion who is higher in WR. However, I think based on body of work and consistency, Alysa should get the nod.
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USFSA's procedure in the past has been to ask the highest ranked person in the highest ranked discipline if they would to do the team event and if they'd like to split or just do one segment. Then proceed onto the next highest ranked discipline and ask the the highest ranked skater and so on until they were out of splits.

If they continue with this strategy, it wouldn't be a matter of them asking Ilia anything. He would be asked whether he wanted to do 1 or 2 and that's what they would follow.

It's not 100% sure what they use to rank individual teams/skaters in each discipline. It seemed like it might be previous worlds placement based on the selection of Karen Chen last time, but there were also rumors that Alyssa might have been unable to do it. I'm very sure that our 3 reigning world champions will be considered the highest ranked in their disciplines. The question is then who comes second in dance and ladies, which could be different depending on the criteria.

Ilia is a fierce competitor and he doesn't like to put limits on himself. it's probably wisest for him to do only the SP, but he doesn't always do what is wise. There's a chance that he will decide skating four times is no big deal and he wants two gold medals in one Olympics.
 
Theatregirl1122 said:
USFSA's procedure in the past has been to ask the highest ranked person in the highest ranked discipline if they would to do the team event and if they'd like to split or just do one segment. Then proceed onto the next highest ranked discipline and ask the the highest ranked skater and so on until they were out of splits.
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I think the question this year is would be how the disciplines are ranked. There's no way that one could argue the men's discipline is the highest ranked of the three based on Worlds 2025 results or the fall season where we had 2 women and 2 dance teams qualify for the GPF.

The problem then becomes, if men's isn't one of the two strongest disciplines, do you potentially sacrifice your strongest gold medal contender in Malinin by making him skate 4 times in one week?
Theatregirl1122 said:
If they continue with this strategy, it wouldn't be a matter of them asking Ilia anything. He would be asked whether he wanted to do 1 or 2 and that's what they would follow.
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The USFS has a form the athletes complete prior to Nats, so they know what his preference is - whether he wants to do 1 or both and if only 1 whether he prefers the SP or the FS.
Theatregirl1122 said:
It's not 100% sure what they use to rank individual teams/skaters in each discipline. It seemed like it might be previous worlds placement based on the selection of Karen Chen last time, but there were also rumors that Alyssa might have been unable to do it. I'm very sure that our 3 reigning world champions will be considered the highest ranked in their disciplines. The question is then who comes second in dance and ladies, which could be different depending on the criteria.
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Right, but any way you cut it - 2025 Worlds results, current season World Rankings, full World Standings - the men are the 3rd best discipline for the US right now.

I think what we've heard is that the USFS has used WS to determine who gets the TE assignments. I'm not sure they'll stick with that this season because that would leave Alysa out and I can't see them leaving a reigning WC out of the TE.
Theatregirl1122 said:
Ilia is a fierce competitor and he doesn't like to put limits on himself. it's probably wisest for him to do only the SP, but he doesn't always do what is wise. There's a chance that he will decide skating four times is no big deal and he wants two gold medals in one Olympics.
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Truth.
 
Theatregirl1122 said:
USFSA's procedure in the past has been to ask the highest ranked person in the highest ranked discipline if they would to do the team event and if they'd like to split or just do one segment. Then proceed onto the next highest ranked discipline and ask the the highest ranked skater and so on until they were out of splits.
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Which is why they need @Karen-W to do the picking. :lol:
 
Is there a definition of how USFS is defining the "strongest" disciplines? Because if you go by which has the best chance for an individual gold medalist, that would be Men. US Women have Sakamoto and Chock/Bates have Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron as competition. That isn't to say they won't win, but odds, looking at it now, are that another man might not lose to Malinin by 20 points than actually beat him.

If you're going by which discipline has the best chance at more than one medal, that would be Women. Again, nothing is guaranteed, but US Man 2, no matter who he is, is not in medal contention, and neither would Z/K or C/P be. But in Dance's favor, at least for the second strongest, is that C/B have won three Worlds in a row, beat FB/S at GPF, and Dance #2 is more likely than Man #2 to place higher.

This would put Men in the third spot, but I can't see USFS giving Malinin no choice because they ran out of spots after Dance and Women split. Try to pressure him into it, perhaps, but leave him no choice? I don't think even they are that stupid, although they might be.
 
The US has great depth in dance and women, and little in men and pairs. It clearly makes the most sense to split dance and women. The way the schedule is set up suggests dance and men should be split, but if Ilia is willing to do both segments, that's clearly the best shot at gold. I guess C/B would ideally do both segments as well but given their age and the closeness of the dance competition that's not realistic.
 
Karen-W said:
I think the question this year is would be how the disciplines are ranked. There's no way that one could argue the men's discipline is the highest ranked of the three based on Worlds 2025 results or the fall season where we had 2 women and 2 dance teams qualify for the GPF.

The problem then becomes, if men's isn't one of the two strongest disciplines, do you potentially sacrifice your strongest gold medal contender in Malinin by making him skate 4 times in one week?

The USFS has a form the athletes complete prior to Nats, so they know what his preference is - whether he wants to do 1 or both and if only 1 whether he prefers the SP or the FS.

Right, but any way you cut it - 2025 Worlds results, current season World Rankings, full World Standings - the men are the 3rd best discipline for the US right now.

I think what we've heard is that the USFS has used WS to determine who gets the TE assignments. I'm not sure they'll stick with that this season because that would leave Alysa out and I can't see them leaving a reigning WC out of the TE.
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It's hard to imagine. It'll be tough if they aren't splitting the women though. Alysa is the reigning WC and GPF winner. Amber is the 3x National champion, who just won both segments at Nationals. Hubbell/Donohue did win Nats in 2018 and weren't chosen for the team event, but they were 2nd in both segments and hadn't won Nats before, so Amber's position here does feel stronger imo.
It's probably still Alysa given the international results, but they could justify Amber as well.
 
I think everyone agrees that dance and women are the strongest disciplines in terms of depth. The pairs have not and the men not named Ilia have not showed great strength, consistency, and depth. But, this is about winning the most medals for Team U.S.A., not about fairness.

Unfortunately, I just think the timing of the team event is too close to the ice dance and men's events. I completely understand if Iiia doesn't want to do the FS in the team event and C/B don't want to do the FD. Ilia clearly loves the attention, and I think he would happily do both segments if there was more of a break, but he said he was tired when he finished the GP Final. C/B have the experience to know how exhausting competing at the Olympics can be.

It's really a shame because Amber, Alysa, and Isabeau have all done so well over the past year.

Here's a link to the skating schedule:

PRlady said:
Kwanfan said it: it’s signaling that the left-out lady is #3. If Levito comes in third at Nats behind the other two and then is left out of the TE, it’s not a good look.
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Isn't she already seen as #3 by a lot of people? I think the fact that Alysa is World Champion already has done that along with the fact that Isabeau wasn't at the GP Final, while Alysa and Amber were. (Yes, I know that Isabeau probably would have made the GP Final if she had competed at a different GP than GPdF, but I don't think that most people look beyond who qualified.) Isabeau did edge out Alysa in the long program this week, but only narrowly, and people will just see that Isabeau came in third at Nationals even though she gave two great and very polished and secure performances. I do hope the story will be that the American women as a whole rocked it, including Isabeau, but I think she still will be seen as #3. (Personally, she gave my favorite performance of the night, but I'm being realistic.)
 
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I’m probably in the minority here but I think Ilia will have written down that he wants to do both segments. I don’t think he’ll be scared of 4 programmes in a week. I think he’ll want 2 golds.

The only way I think he’ll have not done that is if he’s great friends with whoever he thinks the no 2 man would be and wanted to give them a shot. I know Jason has a bronze from 2014 but who knows if Ilia will remember that far back :D
 
miffy said:
I’m probably in the minority here but I think Ilia will have written down that he wants to do both segments. I don’t think he’ll be scared of 4 programmes in a week. I think he’ll want 2 golds.
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Totally. All they need to do is hint to him that they don't think he can cope with doing 4 skates, and he needs to be sensible and pace himself.
 
ChillSkate said:
The problem with Ilia doing a "light" version of his FS is that that is just not who Ilia is. He won't want to get out there and do something less than he is capable of. And maybe even risk getting beaten by someone for doing so.

My understanding is that the USFS does not want the Team Event to diminish someone's chances for an individual medal. It's a shame that Men's is first - but since it is and since Ilia is obviously in contention for an individual medal, I'm not sure they would ask him to do both Team events since it could jeopardize his individual medal chances.
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Wouldn't that be up to Ilia and his coaches and what they think he can do without over-taxing himself? There's no way the US comes home with a Team gold medal without Ilia. No other man can beat the top 2-3 Japanese men.
 
DreamSkates said:
Wouldn't that be up to Ilia and his coaches and what they think he can do without over-taxing himself? There's no way the US comes home with a Team gold medal without Ilia. No other man can beat the top 2-3 Japanese men.
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Of course it's up to Ilia and his coaches (if Men's is considered one of the Top 2 US disciplines and if Ilia gets a choice about whether to do 1 or 2 programs). I wasn't suggesting it's not up to Ilia - it certainly isn't up to me, lol.

The earlier discussion in this thread seemed to suggest that the obvious choice was to have Ilia do both Team programs with a "light" Free. My point was that I don't think it's that simple because I don't think Ilia is the type of person who will want to do a scaled down version of his program. It’s not who he seems to be as a competitor. Plus, doing a "light" Free could cause him to lose to a future competitor days before the individual event which would not help his individual medal chances.
 
I think it’s 100% Ilia in both because if you send Jason and we’re definitely going to lose placements for sure.

Same with dance if you send in ZinKol You’re going to lose placements. And yes, was also Carpon.

I think you have the least greatest chance of losing placements with Amber and Alyssa. They’re both scoring relatively about the same points. They can safely be split.

Jason is not scoring what Ilia can and Has Lost to Georgia, and could also lose placements with Gogo and the French man and for sure the Japanese man. Same with the second and third US dance teams alongside Madison and Evan.

I say women are being split and then you don’t really need to split the others but if they do split and one of them then split I guess dance
 
AngieNikodinovLove (ANL) said:
I think it’s 100% Ilia in both because if you send Jason and we’re definitely going to lose placements for sure.

Same with dance if you send in ZinKol You’re going to lose placements. And yes, was also Carpon.

I think you have the least greatest chance of losing placements with Amber and Alyssa. They’re both scoring relatively about the same points. They can safely be split.

Jason is not scoring what Ilia can and Has Lost to Georgia, and could also lose placements with Gogo and the French man and for sure the Japanese man. Same with the second and third US dance teams alongside Madison and Evan.

I say women are being split and then you don’t really need to split the others but if they do split and one of them then split I guess dance
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US Figure Skating's objective isn't to prioritize winning the team medal, it's to create the opportunity to win the most medals, and with the timing of the dance and men individual events, that tips towards splitting those events and not the later ladies and pairs unless C/B and/or Malinin want to do both segments of the team event.
 
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