2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

Karen-W said:
Well, that's presuming that Miura/Kihara beat Conti/Macii in Italy when an Olympic medal for Italy is on the line. Also, we know that Miura/Kihara are dealing with recurring injuries. But, say that Miura/Kihara do compete in both segments, that means that Sakamoto doesn't and, instead, Alysa probably beats Chiba in the FS, so the points gained from Miura/Kihara in pairs are offset by the points gained with Sakamoto in women. It turns into a wash, at least for gold.
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Except Canada getting in and Gilles/Poirier being in the FD (note- I know that's 4 times in one week and they aren't a medal threat in the team competition so I could actually see them throwing this to Lajoie/Lagha-- who could also shake things up) can potentially make the US lose an additional point. I also suspect if Italy is really in there for a close bronze then Grassl may be doing double duty. Which would be another potential loss for the US (in that Italy probably is +2 there at the least but possibly +3 and US stays the same because Canada...)
 
tony said:
Except Canada getting in and Gilles/Poirier being in the FD can also shake things up and potentially make the US lose an additional point. I also suspect if Italy is really in there for a close bronze then Grassl may be doing double duty. Which would be another potential loss for the US (in that Italy probably is +2 there at the least but possibly +3 and US stays the same because Canada...)
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Well, the scenario I've been exploring today is France getting in over Canada. Like I said a couple of posts ago, Canada in the FS/FD over France makes it a lot harder for the USA. Though I'm also not sure I think that GilPoir will do the FD if Canada makes it into the FS/FD.

In your scenario where Miura/Kihara & Conti/Macii both do the SP & FS for Japan & Italy, there's not much need for Grassl to do double duty as Italy would pretty easily beat Georgia for the bronze.


CountryRDMen's SPPairs SPWomen's SPSub-TotalFDMen's FSPairs FSWomen's FSGrand Total
USA101059349771067
JPN291010316109965
ITA68973010610763
GEO558826798858
FRA974424886652
 
PRlady said:
My guess is the U.S. doesn’t want to split women, they have three legitimate medal contenders and whoever is left out will be really penalized going into the individual event. They can split pairs because none of our pairs will beat Japan, China, Georgia and Italy so what does it matter. I know ilia is superhuman but don’t think he should skate four times in a week.

Glad I don’t have to decide.
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What is the penalty for the women?
 
tony said:
If FB/C end up doing the RD, then it's a potential 1 more point lost for the USA directly compared to JPN.
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I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it, but there's also a chance that Chock/Bates edges out Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron in the RD, with France playing spoiler, whether or not they get the last spot in the Final.
 
Karen-W said:
In your scenario where Miura/Kihara & Conti/Macii both do the SP & FS for Japan & Italy, there's not much need for Grassl to do double duty as Italy would pretty easily beat Georgia for the bronze.


CountryRDMen's SPPairs SPWomen's SPSub-TotalFDMen's FSPairs FSWomen's FSGrand Total
USA101059349771067
JPN291010316109965
ITA68973010610763
GEO558826798858
FRA974424886652
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I wouldn't say 'pretty easily' when the pairs SP top 5 could really go any which way, and you have C/M winning the free skate where any of the three could realistically do it. If C/M finish just one spot behind the Georgians in both segments then it's only a one point margin for the Italians, for example.

The free skates for both the pairs and the men don't happen until the last day. Italy will obviously want a medal so I think both Grassl and Conti & Macii will do double-duty rather than watch it potentially slip through the cracks. Georgia obviously has no other option.
 
If you have three women, and only two of them get a team medal, 1. It says USFS favors the two over the one left out, dumping her to US 3 and 2. It pisses off the women who was left out of a close-to-guaranteed medal, possibly gold. Not everyone turns that into "I'll show them" like Sotnikova did, although I could see Levito handling it that way.

Trusova's complaint about choosing Valieva for both segments of the TE was that Valieva was the favorite going into Beijing; especially for the FS, it wouldn't matter. It could have been the Russian Fed not wanting to choose among the other two. If the Russian Fed had chosen Trusova and Scherbakova for the Team Event, her argument was that each would have won a segment, and all three could have Olympic Gold medals. If Valieva couldn't handle the pressure in the individual event, then she wasn't a good enough competitor.

Had they done that, Valieva's drug test would not have invalidated the TE gold for whatever they were calling Russia in Beijing, Valieva would have been pulled from the Individual Event, and I believe the Russian Fed could have called in a sub for the individual event. In any case, Valieva's drug test results would not have been made public, at least at the time, there might not have been an on-site CAS emergency small panel determination of her status, and she would have sustained an "injury" to explain her absence and return to Russia.
 
tony said:
I wouldn't say 'pretty easily' when the pairs SP top 5 could really go any which way, and you have C/M winning the free skate where any of the three could realistically do it. If C/M finish just one spot behind the Georgians in both segments then it's only a one point margin for the Italians, for example.

The free skates for both the pairs and the men don't happen until the last day. Italy will obviously want a medal so I think both Grassl and Conti & Macii will do double-duty rather than watch it potentially slip through the cracks. Georgia obviously has no other option.
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It may also depend on how Rizzo is looking/skating by then with respect to the men. Grassl has made himself into a serious dark horse contender for an individual medal and they may not want to wear him out, especially if Rizzo is healthier (I'm sort of thinking Memola won't be on the team due to his injury).

I don't have much faith in Metelkina/Berulava delivering a clean FS (at least one lift comes down, calling it now, lol) when the pressure is on - that's not been something they've really been able to do at any point over the last few seasons, so I don't see much reason to bet on that happening in Milano-Cortina.
 
PRlady said:
There’s a week between the TE Final and individual pairs competition. I’m betting Con/Mac and G/F do both segments for Italy, it’s their only shot at beating Georgia. I don’t think Z/K are hot enough, or Car/Pon doing well enough, to beat either LaLa or Lob/Bri in the FD and the men are totally unpredictable. Jason could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th: Egadze, Rizzo, Aymoz/Adam/Gogolov all have higher BVs.
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You do recall that ZingKol already beat LopBri in the FD at Cup of China, right? I don't think LopBri can beat ZingKol in the FD at the Olympics. I do think they could beat CarPon, unless their revamped "Perfume" FD is amazeballs, but even that may be a stretch.
 
Karen-W said:
Apparently, it's too hard to compete twice in a two-week span. ;)
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Yeah, I don't think Alysa would have a problem doing both segments. It may not even be up to her, as I think Ilia and C/B have first dibs on splitting. If she is given the option, she might elect to split to give Amber a chance at a Team medal.
 
hoptoad said:
What is the penalty for the women?
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Kwanfan said it: it’s signaling that the left-out lady is #3. If Levito comes in third at Nats behind the other two and then is left out of the TE, it’s not a good look. Personally I’d rely more on Isabeau than Amber under pressure, but if Alysa wants to do both that’s good too. Especially because the Gaga FS could use more mileage.


Karen-W said:
You do recall that ZingKol already beat LopBri in the FD at Cup of China, right? I don't think LopBri can beat ZingKol in the FD at the Olympics. I do think they could beat CarPon, unless their revamped "Perfume" FD is amazeballs, but even that may be a stretch.
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You do recall that Lop/Bri and LaLa medaled at Skate America ahead of what was then the U.S. #2 team? I love Z/K and hope they do really well in Milan but all this hype is setting them up for a backlash.

L/B has of course suffered because of the interloper interruption, but they medaled at Euros and made the GPF before that happened. LaLa have been heirs apparent for a long time. Z/K haven’t even been to Worlds. I worry about a Chen-like first Olys for them.
 
PRlady said:
]You do recall that Lop/Bri and LaLa medaled at Skate America ahead of what was then the U.S. #2 team? I love Z/K and hope they do really well in Milan but all this hype is setting them up for a backlash.

L/B has of course suffered because of the interloper interruption, but they medaled at Euros and made the GPF before that happened. LaLa have been heirs apparent for a long time. Z/K haven’t even been to Worlds. I worry about a Chen-like first Olys for them.
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And only one of LopBri or LajLag are going to be in the FD against either ZingKol or CarPon.

Let's say the USFS does go with CarPon over ZingKol for the reasons you mentioned - plus the fact that CarPon have the higher WS and have been the #2 US team at Worlds each of the past 2 seasons - the lowest they're going to finish in the FD segment is 3rd. It makes it closer than anyone probably wants, but it also wouldn't be an issue if Jason was skating a lot better and could be relied upon for a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the FS.
 
I think that neither Chock & Bates nor Malinin will do both phases of the Team Event, so the U.S. will have to have one woman do both. To me, Glenn has a realistic chance of winning the Women's Gold Medal, but I think that she would be less likely than Liu or Levito to have four good skates in Milan. Under the circumstances, I would have one of those two do the Team Event.

I am fully prepared to eat my words. I would even like to be proved wrong.
 
Vagabond said:
I think that neither Chock & Bates nor Malinin will do both phases of the Team Event, so the U.S. will have to have one woman do both. To me, Glenn has a realistic chance of winning the Women's Gold Medal, but I think that she would be less likely than Liu or Levito to have four good skates in Milan. Under the circumstances, I would have one of those two do the Team Event.

I am fully prepared to eat my words. I would even like to be proved wrong.
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I think Alysa has a better shot of winning the individual Women's gold than Amber - track records being what they are, Alysa just knows how to deliver under pressure. What I can see is two US women on the podium, though.

As far as the TE goes... We'll have to see what Jason looks like but right now... I'd almost be inclined to ask Ilia to do both segments with a severely watered down FS - 4A, 4Lz+1Eu+3F, 4S+3A in the second half to maximize the bonus - none of the other men likely to be skating in the TE FS would be able to beat him with even that light content.

No way do ChoBat skate in both segments. I'd probably use CarPon over ZingKol - whichever team we use is finishing either 2nd or 3rd in the TE FD depending on whether France or Canada makes the TE FS/FD phase.
 
Karen-W said:
I think Alysa has a better shot of winning the individual Women's gold than Amber - track records being what they are, Alysa just knows how to deliver under pressure. What I can see is two US women on the podium, though.
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I agree with all of this. But I think Glenn can win the individual gold medal. I had not thought so until today.
 
Vagabond said:
I think that neither Chock & Bates nor Malinin will do both phases of the Team Event,
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I floated that theory a long time ago, and then people, a.k.a., Karen, lol piled on me saying that since dance goes first this time around that they need to split the dance in the team event since they go right up as soon as the team event is over.
 
I want a gold medal for all the US skaters. That said, Jason and C/B don’t need another team medal, if it weren’t for the timing and the closeness with Japan’s score I’d want to give others (ie Z/K or CarPon and Third Man) a shot.

As it is, we are strongest across personnel in women and dance and those two should be split. There’s a huge falloff in men after Ilia and frankly whatever pair we put out there is going to finish 6th at best in the SP.
 
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