2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[tony]

Well, that's presuming that Miura/Kihara beat Conti/Macii in Italy when an Olympic medal for Italy is on the line. Also, we know that Miura/Kihara are dealing with recurring injuries. But, say that Miura/Kihara do compete in both segments, that means that Sakamoto doesn't and, instead, Alysa probably beats Chiba in the FS, so the points gained from Miura/Kihara in pairs are offset by the points gained with Sakamoto in women. It turns into a wash, at least for gold.

Except Canada getting in and Gilles/Poirier being in the FD (note- I know that's 4 times in one week and they aren't a medal threat in the team competition so I could actually see them throwing this to Lajoie/Lagha-- who could also shake things up) can potentially make the US lose an additional point. I also suspect if Italy is really in there for a close bronze then Grassl may be doing double duty. Which would be another potential loss for the US (in that Italy probably is +2 there at the least but possibly +3 and US stays the same because Canada...)

 

[Karen-W]

Except Canada getting in and Gilles/Poirier being in the FD can also shake things up and potentially make the US lose an additional point. I also suspect if Italy is really in there for a close bronze then Grassl may be doing double duty. Which would be another potential loss for the US (in that Italy probably is +2 there at the least but possibly +3 and US stays the same because Canada...)

Well, the scenario I've been exploring today is France getting in over Canada. Like I said a couple of posts ago, Canada in the FS/FD over France makes it a lot harder for the USA. Though I'm also not sure I think that GilPoir will do the FD if Canada makes it into the FS/FD.

In your scenario where Miura/Kihara & Conti/Macii both do the SP & FS for Japan & Italy, there's not much need for Grassl to do double duty as Italy would pretty easily beat Georgia for the bronze.

Country	RD	Men's SP	Pairs SP	Women's SP	Sub-Total	FD	Men's FS	Pairs FS	Women's FS	Grand Total
USA	10	10	5	9	34	9	7	7	10	67
JPN	2	9	10	10	31	6	10	9	9	65
ITA	6	8	9	7	30	10	6	10	7	63
GEO	5	5	8	8	26	7	9	8	8	58
FRA	9	7	4	4	24	8	8	6	6	52

 

[hoptoad]

My guess is the U.S. doesn’t want to split women, they have three legitimate medal contenders and whoever is left out will be really penalized going into the individual event. They can split pairs because none of our pairs will beat Japan, China, Georgia and Italy so what does it matter. I know ilia is superhuman but don’t think he should skate four times in a week.

Glad I don’t have to decide.

What is the penalty for the women?

 

[kwanfan1818]

If FB/C end up doing the RD, then it's a potential 1 more point lost for the USA directly compared to JPN.

I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it, but there's also a chance that Chock/Bates edges out Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron in the RD, with France playing spoiler, whether or not they get the last spot in the Final.

 

[Karen-W]

What is the penalty for the women?

Apparently, it's too hard to compete twice in a two-week span.

 

[tony]

In your scenario where Miura/Kihara & Conti/Macii both do the SP & FS for Japan & Italy, there's not much need for Grassl to do double duty as Italy would pretty easily beat Georgia for the bronze.

Country	RD	Men's SP	Pairs SP	Women's SP	Sub-Total	FD	Men's FS	Pairs FS	Women's FS	Grand Total
USA	10	10	5	9	34	9	7	7	10	67
JPN	2	9	10	10	31	6	10	9	9	65
ITA	6	8	9	7	30	10	6	10	7	63
GEO	5	5	8	8	26	7	9	8	8	58
FRA	9	7	4	4	24	8	8	6	6	52

I wouldn't say 'pretty easily' when the pairs SP top 5 could really go any which way, and you have C/M winning the free skate where any of the three could realistically do it. If C/M finish just one spot behind the Georgians in both segments then it's only a one point margin for the Italians, for example.

The free skates for both the pairs and the men don't happen until the last day. Italy will obviously want a medal so I think both Grassl and Conti & Macii will do double-duty rather than watch it potentially slip through the cracks. Georgia obviously has no other option.

 

[kwanfan1818]

If you have three women, and only two of them get a team medal, 1. It says USFS favors the two over the one left out, dumping her to US 3 and 2. It pisses off the women who was left out of a close-to-guaranteed medal, possibly gold. Not everyone turns that into "I'll show them" like Sotnikova did, although I could see Levito handling it that way.

Trusova's complaint about choosing Valieva for both segments of the TE was that Valieva was the favorite going into Beijing; especially for the FS, it wouldn't matter. It could have been the Russian Fed not wanting to choose among the other two. If the Russian Fed had chosen Trusova and Scherbakova for the Team Event, her argument was that each would have won a segment, and all three could have Olympic Gold medals. If Valieva couldn't handle the pressure in the individual event, then she wasn't a good enough competitor.

Had they done that, Valieva's drug test would not have invalidated the TE gold for whatever they were calling Russia in Beijing, Valieva would have been pulled from the Individual Event, and I believe the Russian Fed could have called in a sub for the individual event. In any case, Valieva's drug test results would not have been made public, at least at the time, there might not have been an on-site CAS emergency small panel determination of her status, and she would have sustained an "injury" to explain her absence and return to Russia.

 

[Karen-W]

I wouldn't say 'pretty easily' when the pairs SP top 5 could really go any which way, and you have C/M winning the free skate where any of the three could realistically do it. If C/M finish just one spot behind the Georgians in both segments then it's only a one point margin for the Italians, for example.

The free skates for both the pairs and the men don't happen until the last day. Italy will obviously want a medal so I think both Grassl and Conti & Macii will do double-duty rather than watch it potentially slip through the cracks. Georgia obviously has no other option.

It may also depend on how Rizzo is looking/skating by then with respect to the men. Grassl has made himself into a serious dark horse contender for an individual medal and they may not want to wear him out, especially if Rizzo is healthier (I'm sort of thinking Memola won't be on the team due to his injury).

I don't have much faith in Metelkina/Berulava delivering a clean FS (at least one lift comes down, calling it now, lol) when the pressure is on - that's not been something they've really been able to do at any point over the last few seasons, so I don't see much reason to bet on that happening in Milano-Cortina.

 

[danafan]

They can split pairs because none of our pairs will beat Japan, China, Georgia and Italy so what does it matter.

I think it would be so hilarious if both US pair teams became Olympic champions.

 

[Karen-W]

There’s a week between the TE Final and individual pairs competition. I’m betting Con/Mac and G/F do both segments for Italy, it’s their only shot at beating Georgia. I don’t think Z/K are hot enough, or Car/Pon doing well enough, to beat either LaLa or Lob/Bri in the FD and the men are totally unpredictable. Jason could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th: Egadze, Rizzo, Aymoz/Adam/Gogolov all have higher BVs.

You do recall that ZingKol already beat LopBri in the FD at Cup of China, right? I don't think LopBri can beat ZingKol in the FD at the Olympics. I do think they could beat CarPon, unless their revamped "Perfume" FD is amazeballs, but even that may be a stretch.

 

[Bulletsdad]

Apparently, it's too hard to compete twice in a two-week span.

Yeah, I don't think Alysa would have a problem doing both segments. It may not even be up to her, as I think Ilia and C/B have first dibs on splitting. If she is given the option, she might elect to split to give Amber a chance at a Team medal.