2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[farahfan]

Maybe Malinin could be persuaded to do both phases of the Team Event with watered-down content and just six or seven quads across two programs.

I assume he could do a "light" SP and then ramp up the FS if necessary.

 

[Karen-W]

I assume he could do a "light" SP and then ramp up the FS if necessary.

I don't think so, but I'm also operating under the assumption that Yuma will be doing the SP for Team Japan. Going light in the SP would almost certainly give Yuma the SP win & Japan an extra point.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Obviously, Japan will split ladies and men.

Can a team bring in a skater that did not qualify in individual? Yes, correct? so say like could bring in Pezzeta to split the women if they wanted to? To give LaNaGu a break? Obviously, Italy will not split pairs or dance, but if they wanted they could bring in a skater who did not qualify to help in the team correct?

 

[tony]

Obviously, Japan will split ladies and men.

Can a team bring in a skater that did not qualify in individual? Yes, correct? so say like could bring in Pezzeta to split the women if they wanted to? To give LaNaGu a break? Obviously, Italy will not split pairs or dance, but if they wanted they could bring in a skater who did not qualify to help in the team correct?

No.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

No.

I thought they could

Did Poland actually qualify a man in singles or an ice dance team?

 

[Lanie]

They only can if they need to fill a team roster if they don’t have the individual spots

 

[Karen-W]

I thought they could

Did Poland actually qualify a man in singles or an ice dance team?

Poland qualified a man, woman & pairs team at Worlds last year.

Assuming France gets UZB's pairs spot for the individual event, that will open up 2 additional athlete quotas for the TE and since Korea doesn't have a pairs team, it would default to Poland & they would send a dance team for the TE only.

Obviously, Japan will split ladies and men.

Why are you making that assumption? Men, yes, I think it's split seeing as Yuma & Shun are both strong medal contenders; but Pairs goes before Women the 2nd weekend and we know MiuKih are dealing with injuries. Japan may decide to split pairs & men instead of men & women.

 

[ChillSkate]

The problem with Ilia doing a "light" version of his FS is that that is just not who Ilia is. He won't want to get out there and do something less than he is capable of. And maybe even risk getting beaten by someone for doing so.

My understanding is that the USFS does not want the Team Event to diminish someone's chances for an individual medal. It's a shame that Men's is first - but since it is and since Ilia is obviously in contention for an individual medal, I'm not sure they would ask him to do both Team events since it could jeopardize his individual medal chances.

 

[Karen-W]

The problem with Ilia doing a "light" version of his FS is that that is just not who Ilia is. He won't want to get out there and do something less than he is capable of. And maybe even risk getting beaten by someone for doing so.

My understanding is that the USFS does not want the Team Event to diminish someone's chances for an individual medal. It's a shame that Men's is first - but since it is and since Ilia is obviously in contention for an individual medal, I'm not sure they would ask him to do both Team events since it could jeopardize his individual medal chances.

Men are, technically, the 2nd individual event, but they have their SP on the day between the RD & FD and then short-track uses the arena the day after the FD, so there's a 2-day rest between the Men's SP & FS.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Why are you making that assumption?

They have no other options but the one team in ice dance and the one team in pairs so that they can split that.

 

[Karen-W]

They have no other options but the one team in ice dance and the one team in pairs so that they can split that.

They have two pairs teams - MiuKih and NagaMori.

 

[Karen-W]

Quick refresher on which countries have multiple entries in the individual events and therefore have an option of splitting the Team Event assignments should they make the FS/FD phase:

USA - 3 men, 3 women, 2 pairs, 3 dance teams
JPN - 3 men, 3 women, 2 pairs, 1 dance team (TE only)
ITA - 2 men, 1 woman, 2 pairs, 1 dance team
GEO - 1 man, 1 woman, 1 pair, 1 dance team
CAN - 1 man, 1 woman, 2 pairs, 3 dance teams
FRA - 2 men, 1 woman, 1 pair (TE only at this time), 2 dance teams
GBR - 1 man (TE only), 1 woman, 1 pair, 2 dance teams
CHN - 1 man, 1 woman, 1 pair, 1 dance team
KOR - 2 men, 2 women, 0 pairs, 1 dance team
POL - 1 man, 1 woman, 1 pair, 0 dance teams (at this time, likely will have a TE entry once FRA gets the pairs individual spot relinquished by UZB)

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

They have two pairs teams - MiuKih and NagaMori.

Of course, but there’s no way I would use the junior to senior team, they’re good, but not going to score ahead of Italy, Can or Georgia… too many placements will be lost if they are used.

 

[Bulletsdad]

The problem with Ilia doing a "light" version of his FS is that that is just not who Ilia is. He won't want to get out there and do something less than he is capable of. And maybe even risk getting beaten by someone for doing so.

My understanding is that the USFS does not want the Team Event to diminish someone's chances for an individual medal. It's a shame that Men's is first - but since it is and since Ilia is obviously in contention for an individual medal, I'm not sure they would ask him to do both Team events since it could jeopardize his individual medal chances.

No way is Ilia doing the FS in team event. He was left off team in 2022, and I can't see him sacrificing his stamina to ensure a TE gold. Thereto, if Amber wins Nationals, it will be a tough choice between Alysa and Amber for both segments of the TE. Alysa is reigning World/Grand Prix Champion who missed out on a well deserved TE Gold in 2022. Glenn would be a three time National Champion who is higher in WR. However, I think based on body of work and consistency, Alysa should get the nod.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

No way is Ilia doing the FS in team event. He was left off team in 2022, and I can't see him sacrificing his stamina to ensure a TE gold. Thereto, if Amber wins Nationals, it will be a tough choice between Alysa and Amber for both segments of the TE. Alysa is reigning World/Grand Prix Champion who missed out on a well deserved TE Gold in 2022. Glenn would be a three time National Champion who is higher in WR. However, I think based on body of work and consistency, Alysa should get the nod.

USFSA's procedure in the past has been to ask the highest ranked person in the highest ranked discipline if they would to do the team event and if they'd like to split or just do one segment. Then proceed onto the next highest ranked discipline and ask the the highest ranked skater and so on until they were out of splits.

If they continue with this strategy, it wouldn't be a matter of them asking Ilia anything. He would be asked whether he wanted to do 1 or 2 and that's what they would follow.

It's not 100% sure what they use to rank individual teams/skaters in each discipline. It seemed like it might be previous worlds placement based on the selection of Karen Chen last time, but there were also rumors that Alyssa might have been unable to do it. I'm very sure that our 3 reigning world champions will be considered the highest ranked in their disciplines. The question is then who comes second in dance and ladies, which could be different depending on the criteria.

Ilia is a fierce competitor and he doesn't like to put limits on himself. it's probably wisest for him to do only the SP, but he doesn't always do what is wise. There's a chance that he will decide skating four times is no big deal and he wants two gold medals in one Olympics.

 

[Karen-W]

USFSA's procedure in the past has been to ask the highest ranked person in the highest ranked discipline if they would to do the team event and if they'd like to split or just do one segment. Then proceed onto the next highest ranked discipline and ask the the highest ranked skater and so on until they were out of splits.

I think the question this year is would be how the disciplines are ranked. There's no way that one could argue the men's discipline is the highest ranked of the three based on Worlds 2025 results or the fall season where we had 2 women and 2 dance teams qualify for the GPF.

The problem then becomes, if men's isn't one of the two strongest disciplines, do you potentially sacrifice your strongest gold medal contender in Malinin by making him skate 4 times in one week?

If they continue with this strategy, it wouldn't be a matter of them asking Ilia anything. He would be asked whether he wanted to do 1 or 2 and that's what they would follow.

The USFS has a form the athletes complete prior to Nats, so they know what his preference is - whether he wants to do 1 or both and if only 1 whether he prefers the SP or the FS.

It's not 100% sure what they use to rank individual teams/skaters in each discipline. It seemed like it might be previous worlds placement based on the selection of Karen Chen last time, but there were also rumors that Alyssa might have been unable to do it. I'm very sure that our 3 reigning world champions will be considered the highest ranked in their disciplines. The question is then who comes second in dance and ladies, which could be different depending on the criteria.

Right, but any way you cut it - 2025 Worlds results, current season World Rankings, full World Standings - the men are the 3rd best discipline for the US right now.

I think what we've heard is that the USFS has used WS to determine who gets the TE assignments. I'm not sure they'll stick with that this season because that would leave Alysa out and I can't see them leaving a reigning WC out of the TE.

Ilia is a fierce competitor and he doesn't like to put limits on himself. it's probably wisest for him to do only the SP, but he doesn't always do what is wise. There's a chance that he will decide skating four times is no big deal and he wants two gold medals in one Olympics.

Truth.

 

[MacMadame]

USFSA's procedure in the past has been to ask the highest ranked person in the highest ranked discipline if they would to do the team event and if they'd like to split or just do one segment. Then proceed onto the next highest ranked discipline and ask the the highest ranked skater and so on until they were out of splits.

Which is why they need @Karen-W to do the picking.

 

[angi]

The US pairs event was so underwhelming that I wonder if the US will ask Ilia and C/B to do both segments or just accept they are at a big risk to lose the team gold and prioritize the individual golds.

 

[BittyBug]

The US pairs event was so underwhelming that I wonder if the US will ask Ilia and C/B to do both elements or just accept they are at a big risk to lose the team gold and prioritize the individual golds.

LOL I thought you were going to say that you wonder whether the US will ask Ilia or C/B to do pairs.

 

[tangerine dream]

LOL I thought you were going to say that you wonder whether the US will ask Ilia or C/B to do pairs.

How exactly would an Amber/Ilia pair team score if they did sbs 3A and 3Lz/3T, throw 3A and 3Lz (Ilia could just gently touch her hips while she does most of the mechanics herself), side by side spins, and no pair elements?
/s

 

[kwanfan1818]

Is there a definition of how USFS is defining the "strongest" disciplines? Because if you go by which has the best chance for an individual gold medalist, that would be Men. US Women have Sakamoto and Chock/Bates have Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron as competition. That isn't to say they won't win, but odds, looking at it now, are that another man might not lose to Malinin by 20 points than actually beat him.

If you're going by which discipline has the best chance at more than one medal, that would be Women. Again, nothing is guaranteed, but US Man 2, no matter who he is, is not in medal contention, and neither would Z/K or C/P be. But in Dance's favor, at least for the second strongest, is that C/B have won three Worlds in a row, beat FB/S at GPF, and Dance #2 is more likely than Man #2 to place higher.

This would put Men in the third spot, but I can't see USFS giving Malinin no choice because they ran out of spots after Dance and Women split. Try to pressure him into it, perhaps, but leave him no choice? I don't think even they are that stupid, although they might be.