I am starting to compile a list of who to expect at 2025 US Nationals, here is how its looking so far
WOMEN
Last year's top 5- Amber Glenn, Josephine Lee, Isabeau Levito, Sarah Everhardt, Clare Seo
GP assignments- Lindsay Thorngren, Alysa Liu, Bradie Tennell
2 spots for each sectional = 6 spots, plus 4 more spots among highest scorers and/or those who get competition byes
Pacific - Elyce Lin-Gracey (likely to get GP spots off alternate list), Starr Andrews, Katie Shen, Mia Kalin, Sherry Zhang, Keira Hilbelink (or jr?)
Mid- Logan Higase-Chen, Michelle Lee, Sonja Hilmer, Brooke Gewalt, Wren Warne-Jacobsen
Eastern- Ava Ziegler, Alex Evans, Jill Heiner, Ting Cui, Lindsay Wang
MEN
Last year's top 5- Ilia Malinin, Jason Brown, Camden Pulkinen, Maxim Naumov, Andrew Torgashev
GP assignments- Tomoki Hiwatashi (1 spot, may have to compete at Mids)
2 spots for each sectional = 6 spots, plus 6 more spots among highest scorers and/or those who get competition byes
Pacific - Lucas Broussard (may get SA and other assignments), Joonsoo Kim, Yaroslav Paniot, Michael Xie, Goku Endo, Liam Kapeikis, Kai Kovar, Daniil Murzin
Mid- Daniel Martynov, Taira Shinohara, Beck Strommer, Joseph Klein
Eastern- Jimmy Ma, Lucius Kazanecki, Will Annis, Daniel Samohin
Skaters/teams do not get Byes to Nats unless they are assigned and compete in three Int'l events (JGP, Challenger, & GP) or qualify for the GPF/JGPF.
I don't see how Ava Ziegler can get to Nats unless she is granted a special bye as medical/injury byes no longer exist and she won't have three int'l assignments due to her WD from her GPs because of her surgery.
Currently, the only skaters who are in line for a Bye to Nats based on having 3 Int'l assignments are Chan/Howe in pairs and Neset/Markelov in ice dance. No singles skaters would qualify - I'm operating under the assumption that only the skaters who were under consideration for the SkAm TBD spots at Cranberry Cup are going to get official credit for that as one of the Challenger competitions that count toward a Nats bye. For the Women that would be - Lin-Gracey & Andrews (Everhardt & Seo already have Top 5 Byes); and for the Men that would be Hiwatashi, Kapeikis, Broussard, Ma & Xie (Naumov & Torgashev already have Top 5 Byes).
The same is probably true for Pairs - only the teams that are in the mix for the SkAm TBD spot who are competing at John Nicks IPC are going to get official credit as an assigned Challenger that counts toward the int'l assignments bye - Martins/Bedard & Williams/Lewer (Efimova/Mitrofanov,Kam/O'Shea & McBeath/Parkman have Top 5 Byes already & Chan/Howe should easily earn an Int'l Bye as they already have 2 GPs).
Here is what we have so far:
Men -
2023 Top 5 – Malinin, Brown, Pulkinen, Naumov, Torgashev
3 Internationals –
Travel Bye –
JGPF qualifier –
2 Int’ls – Hiwatashi, Ma
1 Int’l – Broussard, Kapeikis, Shinohara, Xie
Of the Men competing internationally - Jimmy has already been assigned to Lombardia and I think it's a reasonable bet he will get a 3rd Challenger provided he has another decent result or improves on his Cranberry score. Lucas staked a claim on that SkAm TBD spot and I won't be surprised if he's on the Nebelhorn list when it comes out this week. That would put him at 3 internationals. Tomoki's Cranberry result was a lot more troubling but given he has 2 int'ls already, I think he'll wind up with a 2nd Challenger (maybe Denis Ten Memorial since he's training in Japan and the travel to Astana would be easiest/cheapest). Liam is really struggling this season so far and I think the only way he gets a Bye to Nats is if he is assigned to one of those November Challengers. We'll see. Michael has the 2nd highest Pac Coast NQS score among the senior men so far, just 3 points behind Yaro, so even if he doesn't get 3 int'ls (which I don't think he will), I think he'll still manage to qualify for Nats. Taira has one JGP so far and I can't see him getting an int'l bye unless he qualifies for the JGPF.
Sectionals -
Eastern - William Annis, Lucius Kazanecki, Jimmy Ma (likely Int'l Bye) and maybe Jacob Sanchez (he hasn't competed in any NQS events yet so I'm not sure what his domestic plans are) are the only men without Byes of any consequence. Danny Samohin may make it but his NQS score isn't that promising, but Easterns is thin on Senior Men. Honestly, if I was Jacob, I'd actually move up to senior domestically because this is a light group that he can beat even on a bad day.
Midwestern - Tomoki Hiwatashi (likely Int'l Bye), Joseph Klein, Daniel Martynov, Antonio Monaco, Taira Shinohara, Beck Strommer & Maxim Zharkov are all competing senior - that's a pretty inconsistent group. Right now, Taira has the top NQS score from the Midwestern Men, with Beck & Joseph not far behind him; and we haven't seen Daniel compete yet. Tough field with a lot of inconsistent guys. I think we could see three of these men qualify for Nats.
Pacific Coast - Lucas Broussard (likely Int'l Bye), Goku Endo, Liam Kapeikis, Joonsoo Kim, Kai Kovar, Samuel Mindra, Daniil Murzin, Yaroslav Paniot & Michael Xie - this is the TOUGHEST section to make it out of. Yaro, Michael, Goku, Daniil, and Joonsoo all have NQS scores higher than anything posted by any other man in the other sections. As things stand, Liam, Kai and Samuel have their work cut out for them to even make it out of Sectionals to Nats - or they need to make a move to a club in the Eastern section, lol.
Projected to make Nats based on current NQS standings & likely Byes:
Malinin, Brown, Pulkinen, Naumov, Torgashev, Ma, Broussard, Hiwatashi, Kazanecki, Sanchez/Annis, Shinohara, Strommer, Martynov, Endo, Kim, Murzin, Paniot, Xie
Women -
2024 Top 5 – Glenn, J Lee, Levito, Everhardt, Seo
2022 Olympic Team – Liu
3 Internationals –
Travel Bye –
JGPF qualifier –
2 Int’ls – Thorngren, Tennell
1 Int’l – Lin-Gracey, Andrews, Higase-Chen
Of the women competing internationally so far, I think it's reasonable to expect Lindsay, Bradie, Elyce & Starr to wind up with 3 internationals. Lindsay & Bradie have 2 GPs and will be assigned a Challenger like Nebelhorn or Budapest as a warm-up. Elyce is all but guaranteed to get 2 GPs, it's just a matter of waiting for the withdrawals to happen. Starr is a bit further down the GP Alternates list and may pick up one but probably not two. Having said that, I do expect that she'll wind up with 2 more int'l assignments - maybe Nebelhorn or she could be sent somewhere like Denis Ten Memorial or Budapest Trophy and Warsaw Cup in November (which is, conveniently, the week after Sectionals).
We need to check the USFS By-Laws language on Byes because right now, we're looking at 10 women who will qualify for Byes to Nats through 1) Top 5 2024 Nats, 2) 2022 Olympic Team member, 3) 3 or more Int'l assignments and that's not even taking into consideration the possibility that Logan could qualify for the JGPF. If that happens then it's very possible she'd get the 10th bye and Starr would then have to qualify through Sectionals.
Lindsay Wang is Easterns now?
Yes - she's listed as SCoB for Skate San Francisco this weekend - and that's a very smart, strategic move that could get her to Nats again.
Sectionals -
Eastern - Ting Cui, Alex Evans, Jill Heiner, Lindsay Thorngren (likely Int'l Bye), Lindsay Wang & Ava Ziegler (status unknown) - Alex & Jill have the two highest NQS scores so far but Ting isn't far behind and could easily finish top 2 at Sectionals but their scores range from 159-162 and that may make it tough to get to Nats on one of the 2 next highest score spots if some of the women from other sections who are coming back from injury can step it up - heck, depending on the surgery Ava had and her recovery time, she could potentially show up at Sectionals and skate a watered down program and easily qualify for Nats.
Midwestern - Alina Bonillo, Brooke Gewalt, Logan Higase-Chen, Sonja Hilmer, Michelle Lee, Katie Shen, Bradie Tennell (likely Int'l Bye), & Wren Warne-Jacobsen are the ones in the mix with Wren being the least likely IMO. This is probably going to be the toughest section to get out of simply because 4 of these women (Logan, Sonja, Michelle & Katie) have already posted 175+ NQS scores.
Pacific Coast - Starr Andrews (likely Int'l Bye), Keira Hilbelink, Mia Kalin, Elyce Lin-Gracey (likely Int'l Bye), Sherry Zhang - I'm wondering if Keira is injured since her Glacier Falls sr score was much lower than her Junior Cup score a few weeks earlier. Sherry just finished at Skate San Francisco and posted a respectable score for someone coming back from an injury. It appears that the best of the junior women in Pac Coasts are staying junior rather than skating senior domestically (Chao, Coats, Park) and the senior women in Easterns & Pac Coasts should be sending them flower bouquets as a thank you, lol.
Projected to make Nats based on current NQS standings & likely Byes:
Glenn, J Lee, Levito, Everhardt, Seo, Liu, Tennell, Thorngren, Lin-Gracey, Andrews, 2 of Ziegler/Evans/Heiner/Cui, Higase-Chen, Hilmer, M Lee, Shen, Kalin, Zhang
Pairs -
2024 Top 5 –Kam/O’Shea, Efimova/Mitrofanov, Plazas/Fernandez,
Liu/Nagy, McBeath/Parkman
3 Internationals – Chan/Howe
Travel Bye –
JGPF qualifier –
2 Int’ls – Williams/Lewer
1 Int’l – Martins/Bedard
So, right now, there are 14 known senior pairs teams in the US. Five have Byes to Nats, 4 more have already competed in at least one NQS, 1 more is entered in John Nicks IPC, 1 more is an alternate for John Nicks IPC, and 2 more have yet to compete anywhere.
I fully expect Williams/Lewer to receive a 2nd Challenger and get a Bye to Nats. I know Martins/Bedard are coming back from injury but I'll be really surprised if they receive 3 int'l assignments. There just aren't enough Challengers with Pairs to count toward the Bye requirement. As it is, I think that as long as they're back in good competitive shape by the Pairs Final in November they will easily qualify for Nats. It may very well be that the 12 teams who have already competed on the NQS or have int'l assignments are the only ones that wind up competing this season, so we'll just have to see. If either the Mokhovs or Shin/Nagy do wind up competing, I don't think it's at all improbable to think one or both could outscore Hanns/Neudecker, but until they show up on a NQS entry list I'm not including them.
Flores/Wang are probable JGPF qualifiers but they're staying junior domestically.
Projected to make Nats based on current NQS standings & likely Byes:
Kam/O'Shea, Efimova/Mitrofanov, Plazas/Fernandez, McBeath/Parkman, Chan/Howe, Williams/Lewer, Digerness/Sadusky, Korytek/Chapman, Martins/Bedard, Hanns/Neudecker, Fitzpatrick/Bearinger, Fredette/Siianytsia
Dance -
2024 Top 5 – Chock/Bates, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Bratti/Somerville, Green/Parsons, Pate/Bye
3 Internationals – Neset/Markelov
JGPF qualifier –
2 Int’ls – Browns, Zingas/Kolesnik
1 Int’l – Morozov/Chen
So, it seems pretty likely that the USFS will make sure that the Browns and ZingKol get a 3rd Int'l assignment. And I'd be hard-pressed to think that Flores/Desyatov won't wind up with 3 Int'ls also. I'll be interested to see if Morozov/Chen get three or if they're sent to Warsaw Cup and receive a Travel Bye as a result.
Projected to make Nats based on current NQS standings & likely Byes:
Chock/Bates, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Bratti/Somerville, Green/Parsons, Pate/Bye, Neset/Markelov, Browns, Zingas/Kolesnik, Flores/Desyatov, Morozov/Chen, Cui/Rogers, Koncius/Shchepetov, Pham/Spiridonov, Yi/Savelev, Melillo/Schapfel
