2025-26 U.S. Ice Dance News, Updates & Discussion - Backstreet Boys & Spice Girls

[SidelineSkater]

I doubt C/B are going to want to compete 4 times in 6 days. Dance was split in 2022, so there is precedent, and not doing the FD didn't hurt H/D's medal chances. Assuming Z/K go to the Olys, given that they qualified for the GPF, they can be a solid contributor to the team.

I agree they might not want to, but is it up to them? Would USFS rather spread the wealth with men and women's instead? Allowing Alysa/Amber the chance to compete for Team Gold?

 

[BittyBug]

I don't think USFS gives a rusty hoot about sharing the wealth, but rather are focused on placing as high as possible in as many events as possible. Ice Dance and Men are first up in the individual events, and since they have individual contenders in both categories, if they think those athletes would do better with a rest, they'll split dance and mens.

 

[Karen-W]

The USFS also has had the strategy, in the past, of ranking the disciplines from strongest to weakest. Going off both the Worlds 2025 results and the GPF qualifiers, women & dance are stronger than the men, and if the men were competing their individual event in the 2nd week of the Olympics, I could see them having Ilia do both segments of the TE, but the USFS and USOPC also prioritize individual medals and with dance & men being the USA's strongest gold medal possibilities, plus being in the first week, I can't see them not making the choice to split those two disciplines instead of the women, even knowing that the 2nd man, who will be doing the TE FS, is a very weak link at this point in time.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I think the strength of discipline is not necessarily by depth, but by which has the highest medal contender.

What are they going to do: leave Nathan Chen or Ilia Malinin off the team if they don't/didn't want to skate both segments of the TE, when it is/was theirs to lose? They can try to cajole Chock/Bates, who main competition is Fournier Beaudry/Cizeron, while every one of the US women's competition is three Japanese women.

 

[5Ali3]

This is the relevant language for 2026:

"The selection of the participants in both the short program/rhythm dance and free skate/free dance will be made with the best strategy for podium placement in the Team Event. The selection decisions for the Team Event will be made by the Senior Director of Athlete High Performance and the respective discipline group. The determination of which two (2) athletes/teams to substitute will be based on which disciplines have the best opportunity to medal and/or provide the strongest field in the individual events. The disciplines with the best opportunity to medal will have the first option of substitution in the Team Event if the U.S. qualifies for the free skate."

 

[tony]

This is the relevant language for 2026:

"The selection of the participants in both the short program/rhythm dance and free skate/free dance will be made with the best strategy for podium placement in the Team Event. The selection decisions for the Team Event will be made by the Senior Director of Athlete High Performance and the respective discipline group. The determination of which two (2) athletes/teams to substitute will be based on which disciplines have the best opportunity to medal and/or provide the strongest field in the individual events. The disciplines with the best opportunity to medal will have the first option of substitution in the Team Event if the U.S. qualifies for the free skate."

So men and dance.

 

[Allskate]

I think the strength of discipline is not necessarily by depth, but by which has the highest medal contender.

Not if you are talking solely about team event strategy. If you go by what would make the most sense for the team event absent any individual event consideration, it definitely would be the women splitting because of their depth.

Alysa came in first at worlds, with Isabeau fourth and Amber fifth (beaten only by Japanese skaters). There are two American women (Amber and Alysa) going to the GPF, and Isabeau is the first alternate and probably would have qualified if she had been assigned to any GP other than China (where she was beaten by three Japanese women). The only women with season's best scores above Amber, Alysa, and Isabeau are Japanese; any of these three Americans would have a very good chance of finishing no lower than second in the TE women's SP or FP. The women are the strongest case for splitting. No other discipline has as much likelihood of doing this well with splitting.

But, given the rules and the requirement of letting the skaters with the best chance of individually medaling choose to split, it's not that simple. Ilia has been dominant, and it would be shocking if he did not medal. He gets to choose.

C&B are not just multi-time World Champions, but won both their GPs this season. Even if this is not their best season and even if they are not gold medal favorites, they still have a very high chance of medaling. Yes, Alysa won Worlds, but not multiple Worlds, and the Japanese women are fierce, with several of them having higher season's best than her. Amber won the GP Final, but has never medaled at Worlds, and the Japanese women are fierce. Isabeau medaled at Worlds a couple of years ago, but she finished fourth the other two times she competed at words, and again the Japanese women are fierce. I do think that there is a decent chance of an American woman medaling at the Olympics, but not as high as C&B's chances.

It is a bummer that the American women as a whole have been doing so well but only one will get to be in the TE, while skaters who have not done as well will be in the TE. But, I get the logic.

 

[Jammers]

If Alysa makes the team and gets hosed again for the TE i will be .

 

[kwanfan1818]

Not if you are talking solely about team event strategy. If you go by what would make the most sense for the team event absent any individual event consideration, it definitely would be the women splitting because of their depth.

TE is secondary to chances for individual medals, in the selection rules. The disciplines where the skaters/teams have the greater chance of individual medals are the ones that are the strongest, and those skaters/teams get to control their fate.

If for some reason they decided that Dance and Women were, essentially, tied for the strongest discipline based on individual medal chances, it would make sense for them to choose Dance over Women, because of the Olympic schedule, with four programs in six days. Davis/Smolkin might do twice daily full run-throughs, but they are not 33 and 36 (turning 37 in February 2026).

 

[Allskate]

TE is secondary to chances for individual medals, in the selection rules.

Which is pretty much what I said. My central point was that, if you're looking at the team event alone, team depth amongst the various disciplines would call for splitting the women to increase the chances of doing the best in the TE, but the rules and the logic of looking at individual medal chances dictate otherwise. Bummer for the women, but it's logical that the rules are that way.

 

[hoptoad]

I'm not sure team depth in individual disciplines is important in the team event (unless different entrants are stronger for the short and the long).

For best results in the team event, don't you want your strongest competitor in each slot? It's weighing the impact on individual medals that works against this strategy.

 

[AYS]

There's little doubt that Ilia and C/B will the ones that get to choose.

Who knows what each will want to do and what "side" discussions might influence their decisions. I think the US would be almost equally as strong in each phase if they end up splitting the women, and obviously would be the strongest team overall by a fair margin if Ilia and C/B choose to do both.

Ilia would not need to attempt a nutso every-quad lp but still, I just don't see him wanting to skate a lp 2 days before starting his singles event. He seems susceptible to fatigue to me. I think doing the RD 2 days after the team FD is a lesser issue, and might even give C/B a higher level of performance comfort to have both dances under their belts on competitive ice.

If I were a betting person (which I'm not), it would be men and women that split.

 

[Spiralgraph]

Ilia doesn't like to back down from a challenge, so I don't think it's automatic that men will be split for the team event. Ilia is barely 21 and if circumstances arise that it's better for the US team that he skates both portions, he may accept that challenge. (I would hope he does not skate both the SP and LP)
And as for who might skate the FD well aren't we forgetting Christina/Anthony or Caroline/Michael? Let's see how Nationals plays out, to assume everything this early is very iffy. The Olympics are also where lots of athletes get sick, so the US had better have various potential line ups and substitutions in mind.

 

[Debbie S]

Ilia has had some injury issues this season and prior seasons. There was a foot injury that almost kept him out of 2024 Worlds. At GPdF this year, he said he was considering withdrawing due to an injury (he didn't specify) that hampered his preparation for the event. He and his parents are smart, they aren't going to sacrifice his readiness for the individual event to the TE, and they shouldn't.

C/B are 33 and 36. They and their team are also smart about pacing. I don't see them risking fatigue or potential overuse injury by doing a FD 2 days before the RD. If dance was the 2nd week, maybe.

With FB/C apparently skipping the TE, based on L/B comments, there's no strategic benefit for C/B to do both programs.

 

[Karen-W]

With FB/C apparently skipping the TE, based on L/B comments, there's no strategic benefit for C/B to do both programs.

Exactly. I haven't really run any projections for the TE since before the start of the GP series, but I've always felt it made more sense for ChoBat to split the TE with whomever is our #2 team. I do worry about where the #2 US man will place in the TE FS at this point, but Japan may be scrambling from behind the US in both Men & Women if Yuma & Kaori skip the TE this time around, so it might not matter much if we lose a point or two in the TE FD.

 

[PRlady]

I’m sorry men and dance are right after the TE, especially for C/B. I would hope Dance would split both to save C/B performance energy and because except for Jason’s SP which scores well despite lack of quads, I don’t trust any of the U.S. men to score well enough in the FS except Ilia. I have more faith in Z/K or C/P skating a good FD.

The problem with splitting the women is the same Eteri had in 2022: three medal candidates for two programs!

 

[Karen-W]

I’m sorry men and dance are right after the TE, especially for C/B. I would hope Dance would split both to save C/B performance energy and because except for Jason’s SP which scores well despite lack of quads, I don’t trust any of the U.S. men to score well enough in the FS except Ilia. I have more faith in Z/K or C/P skating a good FD.

The problem with splitting the women is the same Eteri had in 2022: three medal candidates for two programs!

Neither do I, but right now, even Jason's SP isn't scoring all that well. Strategically, it makes more sense to take the hit with an inconsistent man coming in dead last in the TE FS than it does to put Jason in the TE SP.

With ZingKol or CarPon, we have a pretty good idea of the number of points they'll score at best or worst in the TE FD. It will depend, of course, on which countries make the TE FS/FD phase & who is swapped out (CAN & FRA are the only other countries with the ability to swap ID teams between the two phases), but we're looking at 2nd at best & 3rd at worst.

I'm really interested to see who the USFS puts in for the women. Best guess - whomever wins Nationals is getting the TE assignment.

 

[AYS]

The problem with splitting the women is the same Eteri had in 2022: three medal candidates for two programs!

Although I believe the US women's field is set barring something really insane at nationals, but if they split the women, I could see finish order at nationals being important for the TE decisions. That being said, I could also see reputation for consistently delivering under pressure being the determining factor, especially if Amber doesn't win nationals. If she does (given she's also the only GPF qualifier), she's in IMO (or should be).

 

[Debbie S]

I'm really interested to see who the USFS puts in for the women. Best guess - whomever wins Nationals is getting the TE assignment.

I think it's a done deal for Alysa unless Amber beats her soundly at both GPF and Nats. In past years, USFS has prioritized results from the most recent Worlds over Nats results in rankings for TE...Karen over Mariah, H/D over C/B, Shibs over H/D.

 

[PRlady]

Additionally we all know that Alysa is nerveless. She said it herself and not in a calculated way.

 

[Karen-W]

Although I believe the US women's field is set barring something really insane at nationals, but if they split the women, I could see finish order at nationals being important for the TE decisions. That being said, I could also see reputation for consistently delivering under pressure being the determining factor, especially if Amber doesn't win nationals. If she does (given she's also the only GPF qualifier), she's in IMO (or should be).

Uhm, yeah, so, Alysa also qualified for the GPF this season...

I think it's a done deal for Alysa unless Amber beats her soundly at both GPF and Nats. In past years, USFS has prioritized results from the most recent Worlds over Nats results in rankings for TE...Karen over Mariah, H/D over C/B, Shibs over H/D.

I think you may be right. Another reason to use Alysa in the TE is if she does come through with the Gaga FS for the 2nd half of the season, she needs to get more mileage on it in front of the international judges and the TE FS would be a good opportunity to do that.

 

[kwanfan1818]

The strategic benefit in the TE is that Chock/Bates would be expected to win both segments, especially if Lopareva/Brissaud are doing the FD, should FRA make the final. (They will have a Pairs deficit to make up.).

Whether they’d need/“need” to would depend on the points after the shorts.

After last season, I would have said that Carriera/Ponomarkenko were so solidly US 2, and Zngas/Kolesnik were barely in the conversation with four other teams, and could be expected to beat L/B and Davis/Smolkin, and/or possibly Lajoie/Lagha on neutral ice. (Were the Olympics not in Milan, a shot at Guignard/Fabbri.). This year, with their performances and material, no.

If Zingas/Kolesnik are US 2 this year, and were they to compete in the FD, the question would be the pressure, since their championship experience is two 4C’s vs. four 4C’s and two Worlds for C/P. Assuming C/B will skate the RD, and since the starting order of the RD will be reverse results of the RD, Z/K, if they are assigned, would likely be skating last in the first TE free. That won’t be the case at GPF, but skating late in the FD at Nationals would be a new experience, and hopefully it happens, and they get that experience.

A C/B FD would come close to guaranteeing at least two more points.

For the individual event, Z/K will earn 472 points minimum at GPF, which will surpass C/P’s total. Neither could catch any of the teams above them, since Gilles/Poirier should spread their lead at GPF, the rest of the European teams above them will get points at Euros, and C/B would be out of reach even without GPF. With the minimum, they should be 6th in WS before Euros, with Reed/Ambrulevicius passing them with 9th or higher, Smart/Dieck passing them with silver, and Davis/Smolkin or Turkkila/Versluis passing them with gold. So firmly in the penultimate starting group with 9th at worst. C/P will be 101 points more vulnerable, but they still should end up at worst, 10th. Without GPF or 4C’s points, and with unexpected results at Euros, Lajoie/Lagha could be bumped to a group (#3) which is after the ice cut, IIRC, which could give a boost to the US teams, if they are Z/K and C/P.

 

[ice coverage]

... Zingas/Kolesnik ... skating late in the FD at Nationals would be a new experience, and hopefully it happens and they get that experience. ...

Zingas/Kolesnik placed third in the RD at 2023 Nats and at 2025 Nats.
They skated 12th out of 14 in 2023 Nats FD, and 13th out of 15 in 2025 Nats FD.
Depending on where one sets the bar for "late in the FD," I don't think it would be such a new experience for them.

My congratulations to them for a terrific season ... with more to come!

 

[kwanfan1818]

I left out the qualifier "as serious contenders," because before this year, they were not. that's a very different kind of pressure.

 

[TanithandBenFan]

I left out the qualifier "as serious contenders," because before this year, they were not. that's a very different kind of pressure.

There’s a ton of pressure at Nationals, and I think @ice coverage’s example is a good one. Z/K skated extremely well in the FD in 2025 with the Worlds spot on the line. My brain fog has me fuzzy on how they skated in 2023 in a similar position.

 

[AYS]

For some reason I thought Alysa hadn't qualified, that's great! So, Ilia, Z/K, and Alysa will probably all be traveling straight from the GPF to Philly.

 

[BittyBug]

Who are the likely contenders for the TE final? CAN, JPN, USA, GEO, ITA, FRA?

 

[PRlady]

Who are the likely contenders for the TE final? CAN, JPN, USA, GEO, ITA, FRA?

Not the expert on this but I think China, Poland, UK?

 

[kwanfan1818]

China, Poland, and the UK will make the TE, but not the final. I think on paper, we're assuming that JPN and USA will be contending for the gold, ITA and GEO will be contending for the bronze, and that FRA and CAN are contending for the last spot in the Final, mostly based on a deficit for FRA in the Pairs event being greater than points gaps between Canadian Men's and Women's, Schild not being much better than Schizas, if at all, and men menning. If there's a different woman for CAN, Daleman is the only one with similar experience.

 

[Debbie S]

For some reason I thought Alysa hadn't qualified, that's great! So, Ilia, Z/K, and Alysa will probably all be traveling straight from the GPF to Philly.

They're coming from Japan, I could see Alysa and Z/K stopping home for a few days, esp since Z/K will have been on the road for 3 weeks. Ilia will probably go home for a few days, or do some promotional/sponsor appearances. It's a quick trip up I-95 from NoVa to Philly.

I wouldn't expect the show to have any group numbers beyond the opening and finale. They probably just need a day (Friday) for rehearsal.

I'm going and I'm excited to see Z/K (and the others)!