2021 US Nationals Ladies FS: Friday Night and the Lights Are Liu--Who Will Be Björn Again?

[just tuned in]

I wish that there would be a way for USFS and Skate Canada to get together and resurrect a North American Championships in a super-secure bubble spot...maybe even Vegas? Do something with the two governments to make it work. Charter a plane from a secure spot in Canada & fly the Canadian team to Vegas, for example. Get Toyota to sponsor!

Results of this North Americans could help decide the two countries’ respective Worlds team. There you have it!

Erm, I would never put all the skaters on a single chartered plane. It is the 50th anniversary of 1961.

 

[PRlady]

How old is Amber? I mean "for the experience" makes sense for a 17-year-old but my sense is she's been around a while and has never medaled at Nats or an international comp until last night, which was an outlier comp like everything this year. She doesn't seem to have a UR problem, I give her that, whereas both Mariah and Karen have their jumps looked at under a microscope, but in my mind her PCS potential is much more limited than the other two. (Throwing your arms around and making angsty faces to angsty music doesn't do it for me, I admit.)

Anyway I root for a monitoring/qualifying comp for the top four (excluding still ineligible Alysa, what a shame about that damn birthday) a few weeks before Worlds whenever it is.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

So just out of curiosity when was Karen’s last clean skate. That’s your problem Karen had a good year a few years ago but she has not delivered the last few years . She’s not left a legacy ofshe delivers every time. I don’t know what they do. But I don’t think Karen has it locked up because several years ago she was good

I didn't say I would feel better about Karen because she was good several years ago. I said I would feel better about Karen because she has has good long programs lately (or ever). Amber almost always has at least one bad program. I also didn't say she has a legacy of "she delivers every time". I just think she's less likely to completely implode.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Not a single - mark for Glenn's FS. One zero.

That is an Ice Dance protocol.

 

[Yazmeen]

How old is Amber? I mean "for the experience" makes sense for a 17-year-old but my sense is she's been around a while and has never medaled at Nats or an international comp until last night, which was an outlier comp like everything this year. She doesn't seem to have a UR problem, I give her that, whereas both Mariah and Karen have their jumps looked at under a microscope, but in my mind her PCS potential is much more limited than the other two. (Throwing your arms around and making angsty faces to angsty music doesn't do it for me, I admit.)

Anyway I root for a monitoring/qualifying comp for the top four (excluding still ineligible Alysa, what a shame about that damn birthday) a few weeks before Worlds whenever it is.

THIS.

I now some of you would probably like to throw a skate at my head, but Amber's skate just didn't do it for me. Yes, she was finally technically on aside from the one missed combo, but to me, she didn't really come alive until she had finished the jumps. I thought her facial expression was mostly stone-faced until she hit that point. My issue with sending her to Worlds? If she has a more usual free skate or a really bad one, we definitely won't get 3 spots, and we could end up with one. Sorry, I just don't see a lot of what you are seeing - I agree with PRlady here.

I think we'd be better off with Mariah (ONLY with last year's "Hallelujah" program) or Karen along with Bradie. Triple axel or not, I think there's too much risk here with a skater with no World's experience who has only had one really good freeskate in her senior body of work.

ETA: I came in late last night to the live broadcast, didn't see her skate live. I watched it today expecting to be absolutely wowed based on the comments here, and I wasn't.

 

[jlai]

ok, remind me, so long as Bradie finishes top 10, the other lady can be in any placement? Or am I getting it wrong?

 

[tony]

ok, remind me, so long as Bradie finishes top 10, the other lady can be in any placement? Or am I getting it wrong?

Basically yes. Or Bradie finishes in the top 12 and the other lady makes the free skate. Or their total (13 and 15 for example) equals 28 or less.

If the other skater finishes too low and/or doesn't qualify, there's now a second chance for any skater besides the one who earned the first spot to earn it officially at Nebelhorn.

 

[jlai]

Basically yes. Or Bradie finishes in the top 12 and the other lady makes the free skate. Or their total (13 and 15 for example) equals 28 or less.

If the other skater finishes too low and/or doesn't qualify, there's now a second chance for any skater besides the one who earned the first spot to earn it officially at Nebelhorn.

In that case, they might as well go with national finish. Look, remember 2012 worlds where Czisny had that disastrous free? US kept 2 ladies even with that skate.

 

[tony]

In that case, they might as well go with national finish. Look, remember 2012 worlds where Czisny had that disastrous free? US kept 2 ladies even with that skate.

Yeah, upthread I shared similar sentiments.

And the chance of finishing with 13 or less placements to get three spots is already going to be quite a stretch with 3 Russians, 3 Japanese, potentially 2 Koreans also in the mix. I wouldn't say throwing Bell on the team would make that chance any better, as she has had three shots at Worlds and done well, but not that level of well.

 

[VGThuy]

Believe me, my Worlds pick isn’t based on my personal faves or aesthetics. Amber is far from my fave there. However, I recognize international judges don’t give a damn about the things I do, and will reward big clean skaters with international quality like speed and power. If you add a 3A then you’re Gucci. Mariah is capped at 9th-8th at best if others skate well. Maybe 7th if two skaters make major errors. Higher if it’s a horrible competition. Bradie is in a similar boat but has higher potential. There’s a reason she’s also working on a 3A. She doesn’t want to be a Mariah-type of skater who is capped off at lower top ten.

 

[rfisher]

All of you are forgetting the fabulous Eva-Lotta in that top 10 mix.

 

[tony]

All of you are forgetting the fabulous Eva-Lotta in that top 10 mix.

Loena Hendrickx probably moreso, if anyone. But breaking into that 3 Russian/2 Japanese (maybe 3) grouping is going to be tough for anyone.

 

[Carolla5501]

I think Bell has no chance of going to worlds. If she came in third or fourth even they probably would have skipped down but not with her placement. Now we’re down to Chen and Glenn. I’m sorry I don’t see the case for Karen Chen over Amber. In the two competitions prior to this last year‘s nationals and skate America Karen did beat Amber, but it’s not like she was outstandingly better and won the gold medal at either one of those they were both fourth and fifth. The difference between them just recently isn’t there. And last night Glenn one so. I’m glad I don’t have to make the decision but I just don’t know that Karen has an outstanding case to be named over the person who came in second.

People are going back to 2018 and going well back then Karen was really good, but I really think that you have to look at what’s going on the last season or 2. I don’t think you can use three years ago to make decisions today because as we’ve seen in ladies figure skating a lot can happen in three years

 

[Karen-W]

Yeah, upthread I shared similar sentiments.

And the chance of finishing with 13 or less placements to get three spots is already going to be quite a stretch with 3 Russians, 3 Japanese, potentially 2 Koreans also in the mix. I wouldn't say throwing Bell on the team would make that chance any better, as she has had three shots at Worlds and done well, but not that level of well.

Believe me, my Worlds pick isn’t based on my personal faves or aesthetics. Amber is far from my fave there. However, I recognize international judges don’t give a damn about the things I do, and will reward big clean skaters with international quality like speed and power. If you add a 3A then you’re Gucci. Mariah is capped at 9th-8th at best if others skate well. Maybe 7th if two skaters make major errors. Higher if it’s a horrible competition. Bradie is in a similar boat but has higher potential. There’s a reason she’s also working on a 3A. She doesn’t want to be a Mariah-type of skater who is capped off at lower top ten.

Have we been watching the same, minimal number of competitions this season? There is no reason to think that Bradie can't/won't beat the #3 Russian and Japanese ladies, and there's certainly no cause to include the Koreans in the mix given the lack of ice time they're dealing with over there. Beyond Shcherbakova what do we have? A bunch of skaters who, on their best day, absolutely would beat Bradie, but, let's break this down...

Trusova - no 3A as of yet so she could be tied or even behind Bradie after the SP, and she's not really proven she can lay it down consistently during either of her two seasons on the senior level yet. She probably beats Bradie in the FS simply due to the base value of her quads even if she doesn't land them. RusNats was a much better free than earlier in the season at CoR.

Kostornaia/Tuktamysheva - Alena's 3A is MIA this season, Liza's 3A is more consistent but her programs aren't up to the same level as Bradie's. It isn't a given that the 3rd Russian lady will beat Bradie like it would have been a year ago, IMO. And, should the 3rd Russian lady wind up being someone else, again, none of those girls are likely to beat Bradie.

Kihira - her 3A is hit or miss, generally more hit than miss but still, without it, does she beat a clean Bradie? On the whole, I'd probably say she will, like Sasha, finish ahead of Bradie, but let's not forget 2019 Worlds when everyone expected her to medal or even win the whole thing and she finished way off the podium.

Sakamoto - She is probably the strongest/most consistent of the Japanese ladies but, again, she's had some opportunities to grab some major hardware and come up short. I love Kaori to death and her Matrix program is one of my faves but I can't say that I think she's for sure going to place ahead of Bradie.

Miyahara - please. If the theory that the USFS will put all its lobby power behind Bradie, then the JSF and RSFS are also going to be putting their lobby power on their higher-ranked skaters. Bradie is a stronger skater than Satoko and I'm hard-pressed to see Bradie finishing behind Satoko, especially if what we saw a few weeks ago at Japanese Nationals is anything by which we can measure her current status.

The Koreans - You was a mess at NHK and ice time is so limited in South Korea right now they can't even hold their internal ranking competitions. I don't think they're a factor, at least not when it comes to beating Bradie.

In reality, I think Bradie is a solid 5th, possibly even as high as 3rd should others really falter and screw up (and none of them are rock solid). Where do I think Amber fits into that mix? Who the heck knows? She's as much of a nervous/headcase skater as you can get. She's usually solid for the SP and could, if she were sent and landed that 3A, finish very high, but I'd be scared she'd fall apart entirely if she was in sniffing distance of the podium. That happens at least once a season with her. Then, there's Karen, who seems to have put her boot issues behind her and her skating is improving. She has the potential to finish as high as 8th, maybe even 7th or 6th with a bit of luck - she is on par with Satoko, IMO, and could maybe squeak out a higher placement than Liza. I firmly believe she can beat whomever the Koreans send. And then there's Mariah - that was one bad, bad skate last night. I stand by my comment last night - if she went back to her Hallelujah free from last season, I'd probably give her the nod just because she earned it last season and she did win SkAm this season. Overall, Karen and Mariah are pretty interchangeable, and could both probably manage to finish 8th, which would be all we need if Bradie can finish 5th.

 

[Wyliefan]

Just for the record, Satoko has beaten Bradie at Worlds twice. I don't see her doing it again this year, with the state of their respective jumps, but there's no need to act like it's laughable when it's already happened.

 

[VGThuy]

Have we been watching the same, minimal number of competitions this season? There is no reason to think that Bradie can't/won't beat the #3 Russian and Japanese ladies, and there's certainly no cause to include the Koreans in the mix given the lack of ice time they're dealing with over there. Beyond Shcherbakova what do we have? A bunch of skaters who, on their best day, absolutely would beat Bradie, but, let's break this down...

Trusova - no 3A as of yet so she could be tied or even behind Bradie after the SP, and she's not really proven she can lay it down consistently during either of her two seasons on the senior level yet. She probably beats Bradie in the FS simply due to the base value of her quads even if she doesn't land them. RusNats was a much better free than earlier in the season at CoR.

Kostornaia/Tuktamysheva - Alena's 3A is MIA this season, Liza's 3A is more consistent but her programs aren't up to the same level as Bradie's. It isn't a given that the 3rd Russian lady will beat Bradie like it would have been a year ago, IMO. And, should the 3rd Russian lady wind up being someone else, again, none of those girls are likely to beat Bradie.

Kihira - her 3A is hit or miss, generally more hit than miss but still, without it, does she beat a clean Bradie? On the whole, I'd probably say she will, like Sasha, finish ahead of Bradie, but let's not forget 2019 Worlds when everyone expected her to medal or even win the whole thing and she finished way off the podium.

Sakamoto - She is probably the strongest/most consistent of the Japanese ladies but, again, she's had some opportunities to grab some major hardware and come up short. I love Kaori to death and her Matrix program is one of my faves but I can't say that I think she's for sure going to place ahead of Bradie.

Miyahara - please. If the theory that the USFS will put all its lobby power behind Bradie, then the JSF and RSFS are also going to be putting their lobby power on their higher-ranked skaters. Bradie is a stronger skater than Satoko and I'm hard-pressed to see Bradie finishing behind Satoko, especially if what we saw a few weeks ago at Japanese Nationals is anything by which we can measure her current status.

The Koreans - You was a mess at NHK and ice time is so limited in South Korea right now they can't even hold their internal ranking competitions. I don't think they're a factor, at least not when it comes to beating Bradie.

In reality, I think Bradie is a solid 5th, possibly even as high as 3rd should others really falter and screw up (and none of them are rock solid). Where do I think Amber fits into that mix? Who the heck knows? She's as much of a nervous/headcase skater as you can get. She's usually solid for the SP and could, if she were sent and landed that 3A, finish very high, but I'd be scared she'd fall apart entirely if she was in sniffing distance of the podium. That happens at least once a season with her. Then, there's Karen, who seems to have put her boot issues behind her and her skating is improving. She has the potential to finish as high as 8th, maybe even 7th or 6th with a bit of luck - she is on par with Satoko, IMO, and could maybe squeak out a higher placement than Liza. I firmly believe she can beat whomever the Koreans send. And then there's Mariah - that was one bad, bad skate last night. I stand by my comment last night - if she went back to her Hallelujah free from last season, I'd probably give her the nod just because she earned it last season and she did win SkAm this season. Overall, Karen and Mariah are pretty interchangeable, and could both probably manage to finish 8th, which would be all we need if Bradie can finish 5th.

I haven’t been watching anything. Just going by all the hype from fans who say US Ladies suck. That and just the past trend from Worlds and how it usually turns out. Bradie placing 5th would be like her medaling it seems.

 

[Karen-W]

Just for the record, Satoko has beaten Bradie at Worlds twice. I don't see her doing it again this year, with the state of their respective jumps, but there's no need to act like it's laughable when it's already happened.

I'm aware of that, but at the time Satoko was Japan's #1 or #2 lady, not it's #3 and she's clearly their #3 right now.

 

[Wyliefan]

I'm aware of that, but at the time Satoko was Japan's #1 or #2 lady, not it's #3 and she's clearly their #3 right now.

She was their #3 the second time she beat Bradie, who was then our #2.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I think Bell has no chance of going to worlds. If she came in third or fourth even they probably would have skipped down but not with her placement. Now we’re down to Chen and Glenn. I’m sorry I don’t see the case for Karen Chen over Amber. In the two competitions prior to this last year‘s nationals and skate America Karen did beat Amber, but it’s not like she was outstandingly better and won the gold medal at either one of those they were both fourth and fifth. The difference between them just recently isn’t there. And last night Glenn one so. I’m glad I don’t have to make the decision but I just don’t know that Karen has an outstanding case to be named over the person who came in second.

And yet.

 

[Sylvia]

I started a thread for USFS' World team selections now that the ladies have been announced: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...ctions-for-2021-worlds-if-they-happen.107978/

 

[bardtoob]

I am glad Liu's skating did not become unattractive when she lost the level of difficulty.