2021 US Nationals Ladies FS: Friday Night and the Lights Are Liu--Who Will Be Björn Again?

[Frau Muller]

Yup. If all goes well, and if tehre is a chance for Amber to get a mini comp before that, let her compete.
But, if I were USFSA I would have a team based on contingency, because at any point the skater could have ********* and withdraw. Or a skating rink is closed or whatever weird scenario. So have like at least 2 backups, please.

I wish that there would be a way for USFS and Skate Canada to get together and resurrect a North American Championships in a super-secure bubble spot...maybe even Vegas? Do something with the two governments to make it work. Charter a plane from a secure spot in Canada & fly the Canadian team to Vegas, for example. Get Toyota to sponsor!

Results of this North Americans could help decide the two countries’ respective Worlds team. There you have it!

 

[rfisher]

Since there's only been 2 competitions this season, and 2 different skaters won, send them.

 

[VGThuy]

I would bring all the alternates to worlds and if one is down with the crud then they go to the next, then the next. I do worry about ice dance with so many sharing the same coaches. Yikes

Maybe herd immunity happened at Montreal.

 

[Rukia]

I would bring all the alternates to worlds and if one is down with the crud then they go to the next, then the next. I do worry about ice dance with so many sharing the same coaches. Yikes

Yeah in this case they might actually need traveling alternates in case they get a surprise positive there (although I'm sure they'll be asking for negative tests beforehand)

 

[jlai]

They really need to find a way to keep an accidental positive from affecting multiple world team members and keeping them from competing. Well i am glad i am not in charge of that logistics.

Btw Amber is unlikely to share a coach with another world team member right? That is a big plus!

 

[Karen-W]

They really need to find a way to keep an accidental positive from affecting multiple world team members and keeping them from competing. Well i am glad i am not in charge of that logistics.

Btw Amber is unlikely to share a coach with another world team member right? That is a big plus!

She trains with the Cains, right? Not that it looks like C-G/L are going to make the World team this year.

 

[Rukia]

She trains with the Cains, right? Not that it looks like C-G/L are going to make the World team this year.

Yes she's with the Cains

 

[Lemonade20]

So happy for the ladies! Amber was a surprise to me, I honestly thought she would be 4th. Congratulations!!

 

[thvu]

I think all the options for the 2nd Worlds spot come with serious downsides results-wise.

Bell’s LP would top out at low 140s internationally. It’s also a coin toss if she lands her 3/3 in the SP at this point, but the international judges know her and rewarded her last season.

Glenn doesn’t have a huge international reputation, and at this point, her success at nationals is Minor-esque considering her reputation for inconsistency. The upside is all her positives. Power, big skating, a potential 3axel.

Chen is still building back up. Her SP 3/3 will most likely only escape scrutiny with a generous panel like at 2017 Worlds. She’s also known to be more inconsistent than not. The upside is her skating skills, spins, and higher PCS potential.

In terms of optics, Glenn is the easy choice, but she was so close to Karen, who has a higher international rep. Bell has had even more recent success, but finished two places down, and her LP was more than just a Rippon like random brain lapse. Her jumps were nervy from start to finish. So...

 

[tony]

Three Russian ladies, at least two Japanese ladies probably fighting for the top 5. I think it’s possible Bradie can get into 6th, which would mean the other entry either needs to finish 7th or it really doesn’t matter who goes in terms of the Olympics, honestly. They could finish 31st and still two spots are earned. But even the third Japanese lady and/or Young You would be fighting it out for 6th, too (if she can go), so it’s not an easy trek for the US anyways.

So because of so many things having to fall exactly into place for the US to get 3 Olympic spots, I think it’s best to just give Glenn the nod. She’s a really solid SP skater and I think she should go for the 3A internationally, too. If she’s going to build herself up, she needs to take advantage of this chance.

 

[meggonzo]

I need a ladies skater to use this music and mimic Napoleon

NAPOLEON DYNAMITE Dance Scene Jon Heder

Directed by:Jared HessJerusha HessProduced by:Jeremy CoonChris WyattSean C. CovelJory WeitzWritten by: Jared HessJerusha HessStarring:Jon HederJon GriesEfren...

www.youtube.com

One of the Chinese skaters is using this song!

 

[floridaice]

IF there is a Worlds and IF Mariah is chosen -- needs to be conditional on going back to last years free program.

 

[Lemonade20]

IF there is a Worlds and IF Mariah is chosen -- needs to be conditional on going back to last years free program.

It will be a very tough field to break through, no matter who US decides to send! I’m dying to see them all together competing again, hopefully at Worlds. Not sure who I would go with, I love Karen though!

 

[Spun Silver]

I still feel bad thinking about Hanna. That was one of the worst implosions I've ever seen. I hope she's OK and has a good support system. No - make that a great support system.

 

[RoseAugust]

My favorites of the night were Alysa and Karen. I wasn't a fan of Alysa in the past, but this year she has won me over. She is my new U. S. favorite! Bradie really brought it - I wish I enjoyed her skating more. I'm thinking that she may be one of those I need to see skate in person to fully appreciate. Anyway, great podium!

 

[miffy]

I haven’t looked for videos yet, just seen the results. Wow 2-4 look close! So it looks like they all had a small mistake that could have changed it. To those who saw it: do you think it was good judging tonight?

I think they should send Amber. Yes Mariah would potentially do better but I doubt it would get 3 spots. Mariah messed up both programmes so I don’t think it should be overlooked. She wasn’t even close to the podium. Send Amber and see if she can do the 3A!

 

[alchemy void]

That's true of all skaters, though. I remember in the mid 90s (when I was like 8..) I straight-up thought Markova was in her 40s.

IMG_20210116_043415

Explore sycqaome59's photos on Flickr!

flic.kr

 

[Deleted member 221]

Thanks to all who posted videos!

The world team should be Tennell and Glenn, no question about it. There's been effectively no season, and thus no compelling reason to deviate from the results. There's nothing from last season's results that should give an edge to anyone, other than Tennell.

Mariah Bell has finished 12th, 12th, and 9th at Worlds. There's very little from her recent body of work that indicates she'd be likely to place any higher. Her jumps are a mess - underrotated and off-axis, even more than usual. I find myself holding my breath on every takeoff and cringing on the landings, which are squirrelly even when clean. This isn't a case of a bad competition. It's a case of unreliable technique that's likely to happen again at Worlds. Plus, she has a bad, near-universally panned program that hasn't been tested with an international panel. Her win at Skate America was based on the short program, and she was fourth in the free, behind Karen Chen and Audrey Shin in addition to Bradie.

There is simply no case to put Mariah on the world team over Amber Glenn. Same with Karen Chen, although at least she has (albeit awhile ago) placed 4th at Worlds once.

Tennell and Glenn for Worlds!

 

[Frau Muller]

I wish that there would be a way for USFS and Skate Canada to get together and resurrect a North American Championships in a super-secure bubble spot...maybe even Vegas? Do something with the two governments to make it work. Charter a plane from a secure spot in Canada & fly the Canadian team to Vegas, for example. Get Toyota to sponsor!

Results of this North Americans could help decide the two countries’ respective Worlds team. There you have it!

p.s. to the above idea:

If there’s a simple and safe way to add Mexico’s Donovan Carrillo to the mix - especially if he trains in the USA or Canada - then please do so. Technically, Mexico is in North America.

Update: I’ve since found out that Donovan lives & trains in Leon, Mexico...maybe not so easy to include him in a “crud edition” of a special North Am challenge.

 

[insideedgeua]

Just out of curiosity, who’s going to do this monitoring? So we’re going to send people to these rinks and bring in new bodies with potentially ********* so that we can monitor. Yeah that makes sense to me

Well, Bradie and Karen train in the same rink, a ten minute drive away from the US Figure Skating headquarters, so that’s not an issue.

For Mariah and Amber, then you have people like Justin Dillon and Mitch Moyer hop on a plane to monitor them, although it’s not like doing it via web cam would be difficult.

That said, as the numbers go, placements at worlds to get a third Olympic spot would be mathematically extremely difficult. So I’d send Bradie and Amber and let Amber get some solid international experience.

 

[skatingguy]

Three Russian ladies, at least two Japanese ladies probably fighting for the top 5. I think it’s possible Bradie can get into 6th, which would mean the other entry either needs to finish 7th or it really doesn’t matter who goes in terms of the Olympics, honestly. They could finish 31st and still two spots are earned. But even the third Japanese lady and/or Young You would be fighting it out for 6th, too (if she can go), so it’s not an easy trek for the US anyways.

So because of so many things having to fall exactly into place for the US to get 3 Olympic spots, I think it’s best to just give Glenn the nod. She’s a really solid SP skater and I think she should go for the 3A internationally, too. If she’s going to build herself up, she needs to take advantage of this chance.

To earn two spots for the Olympics they need both skaters to make the free skate according to the new rules, assuming they will allocate spots based on Worlds.

 

[Erin]

I haven’t looked for videos yet, just seen the results. Wow 2-4 look close! So it looks like they all had a small mistake that could have changed it. To those who saw it: do you think it was good judging tonight?

Personally, I would have given Amber the win in the free, although I knew Bradie would get it. And I’m fine with Bradie getting the win overall based on both programs.

 

[Cayuse]

To earn two spots for the Olympics they need both skaters to make the free skate according to the new rules, assuming they will allocate spots based on Worlds.

So the question becomes "Can we actually lose a spot?"

 

[tony]

To earn two spots for the Olympics they need both skaters to make the free skate according to the new rules, assuming they will allocate spots based on Worlds.

If that happens, they can get the spot at Nebelhorn anyways, it’s not lost completely.

 

[skatfan]

If that happens, they can get the spot at Nebelhorn anyways, it’s not lost completely. Nebelhorn is for those countries that don’t have any spots.

Isnt Nebelhorn only for countries that don’t have any spots? That’s how I remember it.

 

[tony]

Isnt Nebelhorn only for countries that don’t have any spots? That’s how I remember it.

It’s changed now so that if a country earns more than one spot either by being the only entry at Worlds and/or the other skaters wouldn’t place within the first 24 spots qualified (for singles) they then have to earn the spot at Nebelhorn, as well.

So another example is if Loena Hendrickx finishes top 10, Belgium potentially earns a second spot if a different skater can go to Nebelhorn and finish within the top however many spots are available. They don’t get the second spot by default.

 

[skatfan]

It’s changed now so that if a country earns more than one spot either by being the only entry at Worlds and/or the other skaters wouldn’t place within the first 24 spots qualified (for singles) they then have to earn the spot at Nebelhorn, as well.

So if Loena Hendrickx finishes top 10, Belgium potentially earns a second spot if a different skater can go to Nebelhorn and finish within the top however many spots are available. They don’t get the second spot by default.

Ah, thanks for clarifying. Is it also true that if the 2nd skater at worlds doesnt make the cut for a potential 2nd spot there then a skater from that country can earn it by going to Nebelhorn?

 

[tony]

Ah, thanks for clarifying. Is it also true that if the 2nd skater at worlds doesnt make the cut for a potential 2nd spot there then a skater from that country can earn it by going to Nebelhorn?

Yeah, any skater can go besides the one who earned the spot.

 

[kwanfan1818]

And a lot of pneumonia.

This season. But this system has been used in prior years to qualify for Nationals and as an input to selection for internationals, including championships.

Isnt Nebelhorn only for countries that don’t have any spots? That’s how I remember it.

Not anymore. With the change to the rules that the second and third spots have to have a skater/team who makes the free at previous Worlds comes the opportunity to earn those spots at Nebelhorn.

 

[Karen-W]

So the question becomes "Can we actually lose a spot?"

I don't see any reason why we would lose a spot. Amber is usually good for a really strong SP, one that puts her in contention to medal, and then faltering in the FS. I can't see Worlds being a different scenario. Nats this year is the outlier to her usual performance pattern because she skated very well in the FS.

As far as the US chances at 3 spots... Bradie is a solid 6th, possibly 5th or even 3rd-4th under the right circumstances. I don't see anyone beating Shcherbakova this year at Worlds.

The rest of the Russian girls have each had problems this season. Trusova has had some errors (forced and unforced) with regard to her jump content and while I don't think Bradie would prevail against her under most scenarios, no one expected Tuk to beat Sasha or Kostornaia at Rostelecom a few months ago. Kostornaia's 3A is MIA and Liza has had a rough season, and I think Bradie could beat either of them based on what we've seen of the season so far.

Then there are the Japanese ladies... I'm not sure I can see Bradie getting past Kaori but Kaori has been a bit of a nervy skater in previous seasons, same with Rika, whose 3A has been hit or miss at the big competitions. My assumption is that Bradie beats one but not both, and I don't see Satoko being a factor in this conversation.

The Koreans are harder to assess but they've also been struggling to even get rink time, from what I understand, so I don't expect them to be a factor. You was dismal at NHK. Who else is there? Kurakova? An Italian girl? Paganini? One of the Finns? Honestly, if Bradie can manage to beat one of the Russians and Satoko that places her 5th. In that case, Amber would need to finish 8th... She is pretty much a headcase and I'm very concerned by that but if she can manage to duplicate her Nationals performances she can beat Satoko these days. It's not an easy path for the US to earn 3 spots but, hell, no one expected that out of our 2017 team either, and I think there is an outside chance that Bradie sneaks into 3rd if Worlds are held this spring.