Not really, since the BOW advantage from last season isn't really that large - at least not in the Selection Pool calculation. She actually has more BOW points from last season (120) than Levito (75). The BOW points from last season only include Nationals & ISU Championships (so, Amber's GPF win gets her nothing). Here are the BOW points for last season's results:
Liu - 255
Glenn - 135
Tennell, Everhardt & Lin-Gracey (3-way tie) - 120
Levito - 75
The real disadvantage comes in the fact that she scored 20+ points lower than Levito did at her Challenger. It isn't an and/or situation as far as the GP is concerned - it is a clear "AND" - she has to score much better AND Glenn or Levito have to bomb at least once.
According to my reading of the rules, the BOW is based on the previous 12 months at the time of the team selection and the only events from last season that are relevant are Nationals, Worlds, and Four Continents. Also, although the point total from the relevant BOW is important to get into the selection pool, my understanding of the rules is that the examination of the body of work for picking the actual team members is very different and isn't about the point total.
I don't think Amber or Isabeau bombing once is going to do it for Bradie even if she has one great competition where she scores significantly better. The selection rules specifically say: "It has been the experience of U.S. Figure Skating that the athletes who have had the most success at the international level are those who have demonstrated consistent performances as opposed to the
athletes who only have a single great performance. Therefore, by using discretionary selection criteria,
U.S. Figure Skating can nominate the athletes who have the best chance to win the maximum number of
medals at the Games."
Alysa, Isabeau, and Amber all scored better at this year's Worlds than Bradie did at Four Continents, which probably was her best event in years. Bradie's performance and score did not show that she had a chance to medal at the Olympics, and I don't think her fourth place performance at Nationals (behind both Amber and Alysa) showed that either. Alysa's world championship win clearly shows that she has the potential to medal at the Olympics. Putting aside Isabeau's previous silver medal at Worlds, IMO, her fourth place at Worlds this year after being off the ice for three months also shows that she has the potential to medal. So, even though Isabeau missed Nationals because of her injury, coming into this season, I think that Alysa, Amber, and Isabeau all have an advantage over Bradie based on BOW thus far.
Scoring significantly better than Amber or Isabeau in one competition is not going to change that. According to the criteria, they are supposed to look at the protocols in the BOW and not simply at placements, but consistency and competitiveness. One competition isn't going to change that - unless maybe it's Nationals and she somehow manages to win because Amber, Isabeau, and Alysa all are injured or implode? And Amber's triple axel makes her more competitive and more likely to medal. Even though Amber is inconsistent with her jumping, she was scoring high and won all but one competition last season. For her not to qualify for the team, I think she would have to score significantly worse this season and not just in one competition.
That doesn't mean that Bradie doesn't have a chance. The selection committee also is supposed to look at trending scores. If Alysa, Amber, or Isabeau has a bad season overall leading up to the Olympics, then it might be different.
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