Weren't US skaters required to do the team event in the past, and it was just a matter of if they wanted to do both segments or only one? The disciplines are ranked based on last year's World Championships - so Men, Dance, Ladies, Pairs - and so presumably Nathan will be given first choice, and then whoever finishes 2nd at US Nationals will either get the short or the free skate, or possibly, but unlikely neither, depending on what Nathan decides.
Do you mean on paper, or what's likely to happen?
According to the USFS's Olympic qualifying document:
Athletes/teams participating in the Championship division at the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships, with their primary coach’s approval, will submit a Team Event Preference Form (see Attachment B) to indicate their interest in participating in the Team Event at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games. Completed forms should be emailed to the International Chair
[email protected] and the Senior Director, Athlete High Performance
[email protected] at least 28 days (four weeks) prior to the first day of official practice of the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships in order to be considered for the Team Event at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games. The athletes/teams will indicate whether they want to be considered for both segments, short/rhythm dance only, free skate/free dance only or would like to opt out of participating in the Team Event. The Team Event Preference Form will provide the IC Discipline Subcommittees valuable information on the athlete’s/team’s strategy to perform at their peak at the Games in the Team Event as well as their individual event. If the athlete has potential of podium placement in their individual event, their individual strategy will be the priority if it is determined that the Team Event strategy interferes with their individual strategy. However, in order to fill the field of the Team Event, and because there will be limitations on participation (only those athletes nominated to the 2022 U.S. Olympic Team in their discipline will be eligible) and substitution (only up to two disciplines can be substituted), U.S. Figure Skating reserves the authority to enter an athlete to compete in the Team Event despite the information provided in the Team Event Preference Form. Reasons why an athlete could be entered to compete in a segment that was not indicated by the athlete on their Team Event Preference Form would be due to:
- Ranking of the disciplines (explained below) -- not having the ability to replace an athlete due to the maximum replacement allocation of two athletes/teams already having been reached.
- The first-ranked athlete in the discipline chose the segment the next-ranked athlete preferred.
• The athlete’s/team’s strategy would not contribute to the best interest of the team to maximize podium potential.
It will be the responsibility of the athlete/team to accept or decline participation in the Team Event
So everyone who competes at Sr. Nationals has to submit the form (signed by their primary coach), in which they state their preference for the TE: Short, Free, both, or neither. Right out in the open, in advance, they have to declare whether or not they are a team player.
Then, regardless of their preferences, USFS will nominate them to whatever USFS can (based on the number of substitutions left) and/or wants, while taking their preferences into consideration, blah, blah, blah.
Then, once nominated, they can turn it down. If Women #1 and #2 and/or Pair #1 turn(s) it down, there's going to be a lot of arm-twisting for Woman #3 and Pair #2 to say yes, rather than US be down a discipline.
Unless they are Nathan Chen, all will probably put in that they want to be considered for at least one segment, and he might, too. The top two Dance teams have the same coaches, who will likely decide whether they should split the programs and how, or that one should do both, in which case the other will decline due to individual podium chance strategy blah, blah, blah. (I think the former will happen.) The Women might decide to ask for a strategic favorite program, on the off chance one Man does both and Women can be substituted, but likely, the strongest Woman will be asked to do both, unless it's really close, and the Woman #2 has indicated both -- can see some coach brinkmanship here -- and the single Pair nominated will, in all likelihood, do what they are told IMO.
If I were a competing Woman, I would ask for both segments, and then, if there could be a substitution, graciously concede to Woman #2. Like Nigel Havers did in Chariots of Fire.