U.S. Men 2021-22 season news & updates

[Tavi]

99% Nathan is going to be doing the SP since the men's individual event begins the day after the Team FS. The FS will be between the other two US men. I don't know why anyone thinks otherwise.

Because there’s only 4 days between the individual and team event SPs and then the individual FS is 2 days later, plus Olympic excitement plus a 15 hour time difference? I’m not saying it’s impossible, and if anyone can do it, it’s Nathan. But I think whoever skates in the team event - whether SP or FS - will need to pace themselves super carefully.

 

[sheetz]

Because there’s only 4 days between the individual and team event SPs and then the individual FS is 2 days later, plus Olympic excitement plus a 15 hour time difference? I’m not saying it’s impossible, and if anyone can do it, it’s Nathan. But I think whoever skates in the team event - whether SP or FS - will need to pace themselves super carefully.

Obviously, but doing the Team SP would still be far easier than doing the Team FS, which some people have suggested. Fortunately Nathan is a strong enough jumper than he can still be competitive in the SP with anyone in the World even with a watered down content with 4F and 4T.

 

[Tavi]

Obviously, but doing the Team SP would still be far easier than doing the Team FS, which some people have suggested. Fortunately Nathan is a strong enough jumper than he can still be competitive in the SP with anyone in the World even with a watered down content with 4F and 4T.

Oh no question timing of the team event SP is better than timing of the FS, and yes Nathan is capable of scoring very highly even with less than his toughest content. It’s more that based on my own experience competing in another (non athletic) field, when you have to compete several times in a short period, managing adrenaline and energy is key. Anyway, I’m sure that whatever Nathan does, he’ll have a very well thought out strategy.

 

[Karen-W]

Because there’s only 4 days between the individual and team event SPs and then the individual FS is 2 days later, plus Olympic excitement plus a 15 hour time difference? I’m not saying it’s impossible, and if anyone can do it, it’s Nathan. But I think whoever skates in the team event - whether SP or FS - will need to pace themselves super carefully.

Well, I assume that any of the Olympic athletes will be in Beijing athlete at least 7-10 days ahead of their first competitions and already adjusted to the time difference. All of the skaters from countries in the Team Event will be there well ahead of the start of it - and the justification for getting the entire team there as early as possible exists in the Team Event document - the substitutions aren't announced until after the SPs are completed, so every single country with multiple entries in any FS discipline will be able to get all of their skaters into Beijing well ahead of their individual events. I'm not sure if that will ultimately be beneficial to the Pairs and Ladies unless the Beijing OC has organized private practice ice for those skaters - normally that's done by each fed/NOC but this is an entirely different situation with crud restrictions.

 

[Tavi]

Well, I assume that any of the Olympic athletes will be in Beijing athlete at least 7-10 days ahead of their first competitions and already adjusted to the time difference. All of the skaters from countries in the Team Event will be there well ahead of the start of it - and the justification for getting the entire team there as early as possible exists in the Team Event document - the substitutions aren't announced until after the SPs are completed, so every single country with multiple entries in any FS discipline will be able to get all of their skaters into Beijing well ahead of their individual events. I'm not sure if that will ultimately be beneficial to the Pairs and Ladies unless the Beijing OC has organized private practice ice for those skaters - normally that's done by each fed/NOC but this is an entirely different situation with crud restrictions.

Yeah I’m sure you’re right that they’ll get there early, and it will be interesting to see how things are handled logistically given what’s going on. If I recall, after the team event in Sochi, some US skaters left to train in Germany? But I don’t expect that kind of thing will be practical this year.

 

[Karen-W]

Yeah I’m sure you’re right that they’ll get there early, and it will be interesting to see how things are handled logistically given what’s going on. If I recall, after the team event in Sochi, some US skaters left to train in Germany? But I don’t expect that kind of thing will be practical this year.

Right, and I'm pretty sure the Ladies and Dance teams went to Seoul for private training between the team event and their own events. Of course, the USFS sort of made it clear which skaters were in the mix for the team event ahead of time also and, strategically, I think that's just stupid. Why tip your hand like that to the other nations?

This year is going to be such a cluster. Really have to admire these athletes for going after their Olympic dreams and dealing with all of the restrictions/protocols that the Beijing OC plans on imposing after they were unhappy with the C19 protocols from the Tokyo OC.

 

[Tavi]

Right, and I'm pretty sure the Ladies and Dance teams went to Seoul for private training between the team event and their own events. Of course, the USFS sort of made it clear which skaters were in the mix for the team event ahead of time also and, strategically, I think that's just stupid. Why tip your hand like that to the other nations?

This year is going to be such a cluster. Really have to admire these athletes for going after their Olympic dreams and dealing with all of the restrictions/protocols that the Beijing OC plans on imposing after they were unhappy with the C19 protocols from the Tokyo OC.

I get what you’re saying about tipping your hand, but once the National teams are selected there are only so many possibilities, and in some cases there probably won’t be that great a difference in scoring / placement between the possibilities. That will be clearer later in the season, obviously, but in ice dance, for example, it might not matter if Hubbell and Donahue skate both programs or if Chock and Bates skate one of them.

 

[skylark]

Here are a couple of articles by Nick McCarvel about Vincent's awesome skating and healthy win .... and his mindset and challenges going into the Nebelhorn competition. Nick said Vincent 'turned in a sublime performance.' I could not agree more!

Scroll down the page for the second article, "Zhou Steals the Show with Sublime Skating," which features quotes from some of the other men who earned spots for their countries.

Zhou said, "I feel honoured to be sent for this competition, and I am very proud that I did the job. My performance wasn't perfect, but I fulfilled the task that I was given."

Vincent Zhou leads group of seven confirming Olympic spots for Beijing 2022

The ISU Challenger event is the final chance for countries to earn quota spots for Beijing 2022.

olympics.com

In his instagram, a photo Vincent in the rink at Oberstdorff last week, with a throwback photo to the last time he was there in 2017. It reminds me how much he's grown. It was between 2 of the Nationals in there somewhere that I noticed his huge growth spurt. He often seems so mature, with his emotional skating, that I forget he's only 20.

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[Marco]

I don't see USFS letting either Nathan or Vincent off the team event if a medal / the gold is on the line. And it's pretty much a guaranteed medal so why wouldn't they want to take part (esp Vincent who didn't get to compete at the team event and medal in 2018)? Skating a short program 4 days before another short program segment is nothing really. Skating a full long 1 day before the short program is obviously another matter but even so, for Vincent, having a 95% chance at a team medal is probably still better than having a ~30-40% (at best) chance at an individual medal.

 

[Vagabond]

I don't see USFS letting either Nathan or Vincent off the team event if a medal / the gold is on the line. And it's pretty much a guaranteed medal so why wouldn't they want to take part (esp Vincent who didn't get to compete at the team event and medal in 2018)? Skating a short program 4 days before another short program segment is nothing really.

The medal is pretty much assured in the Team Event but the gold medal is not. I would expect USFS to prefer this:

Team: Silver
Chen: Gold
Zhou: Less than Gold

to this:

Team: Gold
Chen: Less than Gold
Zhou: Less than Silver

 

[olympic]

I think the US has a strong hold on silver at worst and a really good chance at gold. With Korea missing the team event, the US doesn't have to worry about their ladies finishing ahead of them in either the SP or FS, and Alysa is coming on strong enough that while, at this moment, I project her to finish 3rd in both segments to JPN and RUS, it isn't out of the realm of possibility for her to finish higher, especially in the SP. In Pairs, even if China sends out S/H for the SP, there's no guarantee that the RUS pair will beat them and the rest of the field is wide open - K/F are competitive with the pairs teams that CAN, ITA, JPN & GER will use (GEO, CZE & UKR Pairs teams are going to have to make vast improvements to compete with that middle 5). China won't make the FS, so agaim, it will be a matter of where K/F place in a field made up of teams they are more than capable of beating after RUS wins. Dance is also impacted by France not qualifying for the team event. We'll see how the RDs and FDs stack up this season but the general consensus after ACI, US Classic and Russian Test Skates last weekend was that H/D and P/G have superior RDs and FDs to SinKats. We'll see what people think after SinKats show their revised FD at their upcoming Russia Cup event and the Denis Ten Memorial Challenger but, right now, the US could have a 3-4 point lead in the team dance segments alone. My belief is that this year's team gold really could come down to the Men and if the USFS/USOC are really interested in contending for the gold rather than just sitting back and taking a silver, they'll want Nathan in the SP and Vincent in the FS.

Thanks. I think K/F can probably beat ITA and GER. I know JPN's pair looks strong based on the last competition, but we will have to see. I also think CAN still enjoys an advantage over the US in Pairs and will wedge between the US and RUS. If S/H compete, that will be a headache for RUS, yet there is no guarantee. CHN may not want to sacrifice S/H in a team competition

 

[Taso]

Thanks. I think K/F can probably beat ITA and GER. I know JPN's pair looks strong based on the last competition, but we will have to see. I also think CAN still enjoys an advantage over the US in Pairs and will wedge between the US and RUS. If S/H compete, that will be a headache for RUS, yet there is no guarantee. CHN may not want to sacrifice S/H in a team competition

I know it depends on S&H's condition, but isn't the pairs event last this time instead of first? That would give them plenty of time to get their energy back I'd imagine.

 

[clairecloutier]

Don't think energy is the issue with Sui/Han. They've had a LOT of injuries and missed a lot of competitions in the past 5 years. If they don't compete in the team event, it will be to avoid injury and save their bodies, basically, for the main pairs event in Beijing. Which I suspect will be their final competition.

 

[Tavi]

Would it be possible to continue discussion about pairs in pairs thread or Olympic team thread? Thx

 

[miffy]

If Nathan isn’t keen on the team event I think they should let him off, especially if the others on the team are Vincent and Jason. I would think Vincent would want to do the SP if at all possible to guarantee a medal. I know Jason probably won’t have quads but he always gets great PCS.
The 3 of them are so good I think any combination would be fine You’re lucky to have such a great group of men in the US!

 

[sk9tingfan]

If Nathan isn’t keen on the team event I think they should let him off, especially if the others on the team are Vincent and Jason. I would think Vincent would want to do the SP if at all possible to guarantee a medal. I know Jason probably won’t have quads but he always gets great PCS.
The 3 of them are so good I think any combination would be fine You’re lucky to have such a great group of men in the US!

Just out of curiosity, where is this coming from on terms of Nathan's attitude about participating in the the team event? Is it just speculation or projection?

 

[skatingguy]

Just out of curiosity, where is this coming from on terms of Nathan's attitude about participating in the the team event? Is it just speculation or projection?

It's based on the schedule - there's only 4 days between Men's Team Event Short Program, and the Men's Short Program.

 

[sk9tingfan]

It's based on the schedule - there's only 4 days between Men's Team Event Short Program, and the Men's Short Program.

I get that but others such as Vincent could view themselves as a viable medalist ,and conceivably might have the same issue.

 

[Panja]

I know we shouldn't discuss pairs, but I am thinking of 2018 when D/R had 4 excellent skates (they did both parts of the Team event) at the OG when pairs was scheduled straight after the Team Event. Couldn't a man manage this likewise when men are scheduled straight after the Team event as is going to happen in China? It's up to the skaters themselves (and the Federation of course) whether they would want to do this (or realise they just can't do four good skates in a row), but why wouldn't Nathan try for two golds? Not that I don't 'get' why any of the men would prefer something else, but I do think it is possible.

 

[miffy]

Just out of curiosity, where is this coming from on terms of Nathan's attitude about participating in the the team event? Is it just speculation or projection?

I only meant my post as an ‘if this happens’ situation, I think Nathan would likely want to do the short and get 2 medals, unless he is put off after doing a good short in the team event and a bad one in the individual last time.

 

[lurkz2]

I only meant my post as an ‘if this happens’ situation, I think Nathan would likely want to do the short and get 2 medals, unless he is put off after doing a good short in the team event and a bad one in the individual last time.

He had a bad one (Team Event) and an even worse one (individual) last time. I also think he will do the SP again this time.

 

[miffy]

He had a bad one (Team Event) and an even worse one (individual) last time. I also think he will do the SP again this time.

Did he?! I watched it in hospital having had surgery that day so I was a little out of it but I had thought I remembered the men’s SP pretty well; obviously not though! Maybe I should rewatch it, there might be a few more surprises for me

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Did he?! I watched it in hospital having had surgery that day so I was a little out of it but I had thought I remembered the men’s SP pretty well; obviously not though! Maybe I should rewatch it, there might be a few more surprises for me

Yeah, he was not good in the team event SP.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Weren't US skaters required to do the team event in the past, and it was just a matter of if they wanted to do both segments or only one? The disciplines are ranked based on last year's World Championships - so Men, Dance, Ladies, Pairs - and so presumably Nathan will be given first choice, and then whoever finishes 2nd at US Nationals will either get the short or the free skate, or possibly, but unlikely neither, depending on what Nathan decides.

Do you mean on paper, or what's likely to happen?

According to the USFS's Olympic qualifying document:

Athletes/teams participating in the Championship division at the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships, with their primary coach’s approval, will submit a Team Event Preference Form (see Attachment B) to indicate their interest in participating in the Team Event at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games. Completed forms should be emailed to the International Chair [email protected] and the Senior Director, Athlete High Performance [email protected] at least 28 days (four weeks) prior to the first day of official practice of the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships in order to be considered for the Team Event at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games. The athletes/teams will indicate whether they want to be considered for both segments, short/rhythm dance only, free skate/free dance only or would like to opt out of participating in the Team Event. The Team Event Preference Form will provide the IC Discipline Subcommittees valuable information on the athlete’s/team’s strategy to perform at their peak at the Games in the Team Event as well as their individual event. If the athlete has potential of podium placement in their individual event, their individual strategy will be the priority if it is determined that the Team Event strategy interferes with their individual strategy. However, in order to fill the field of the Team Event, and because there will be limitations on participation (only those athletes nominated to the 2022 U.S. Olympic Team in their discipline will be eligible) and substitution (only up to two disciplines can be substituted), U.S. Figure Skating reserves the authority to enter an athlete to compete in the Team Event despite the information provided in the Team Event Preference Form. Reasons why an athlete could be entered to compete in a segment that was not indicated by the athlete on their Team Event Preference Form would be due to:

• Ranking of the disciplines (explained below) -- not having the ability to replace an athlete due to the maximum replacement allocation of two athletes/teams already having been reached.
• The first-ranked athlete in the discipline chose the segment the next-ranked athlete preferred.
  • The athlete’s/team’s strategy would not contribute to the best interest of the team to maximize podium potential.
  
  It will be the responsibility of the athlete/team to accept or decline participation in the Team Event

So everyone who competes at Sr. Nationals has to submit the form (signed by their primary coach), in which they state their preference for the TE: Short, Free, both, or neither. Right out in the open, in advance, they have to declare whether or not they are a team player.

Then, regardless of their preferences, USFS will nominate them to whatever USFS can (based on the number of substitutions left) and/or wants, while taking their preferences into consideration, blah, blah, blah.

Then, once nominated, they can turn it down. If Women #1 and #2 and/or Pair #1 turn(s) it down, there's going to be a lot of arm-twisting for Woman #3 and Pair #2 to say yes, rather than US be down a discipline.

Unless they are Nathan Chen, all will probably put in that they want to be considered for at least one segment, and he might, too. The top two Dance teams have the same coaches, who will likely decide whether they should split the programs and how, or that one should do both, in which case the other will decline due to individual podium chance strategy blah, blah, blah. (I think the former will happen.) The Women might decide to ask for a strategic favorite program, on the off chance one Man does both and Women can be substituted, but likely, the strongest Woman will be asked to do both, unless it's really close, and the Woman #2 has indicated both -- can see some coach brinkmanship here -- and the single Pair nominated will, in all likelihood, do what they are told IMO.

If I were a competing Woman, I would ask for both segments, and then, if there could be a substitution, graciously concede to Woman #2. Like Nigel Havers did in Chariots of Fire.

 

[skylark]

-- and the single Pair nominated will, in all likelihood, do what they are told IMO.

But we will have two pairs at the Olympics, so there will be at least the possibility for them to split between SP/FS.

 

[Karen-W]

But we will have two pairs at the Olympics, so there will be at least the possibility for them to split between SP/FS.

Pairs isn't getting split. The Pairs individual event starts 2 weeks after the Pairs team event and it is the least discipline the US is least likely to medal in. Not only are Men and Dance our strongest/most likely to medal disciplines they are first after the Team event. And, as far as the Women are concerned, Alysa is a cut above the others in terms of consistency and scoring potential and the US would be crazy to use anyone but her in both segments unless the rest of the contenders get their acts together on the GP this fall.

 

[tony]

Pairs isn't getting split. The Pairs individual event starts 2 weeks after the Pairs team event and it is the least discipline the US is least likely to medal in. Not only are Men and Dance our strongest/most likely to medal disciplines they are first after the Team event. And, as far as the Women are concerned, Alysa is a cut above the others in terms of consistency and scoring potential and the US would be crazy to use anyone but her in both segments unless the rest of the contenders get their acts together on the GP this fall.

I don't necessarily agree on 'consistency' yet. She had one (highly scored PCS..) competition a few weeks ago but her Nebelhorn free skate wasn't exactly something that boosts her far and away above the rest of the US women, and it certainly doesn't likely make her competitive with the Russian or Japanese representatives in the team event. If Tennell comes back healthy and is to show her 2019-2020 level (or even her 2021 Nationals level), she's likely going to be right in there to lead the way IMO.

ETA- to keep the thread somewhat on topic, USFS is probably praying for Zhou to continue hitting in his programs, probably especially his LP so that Nathan won't have to do both programs and that they actually have a shot in the LP portion. Unfortunately for the dancers, it might be another 2018 situation where only one team gets to do both programs (by their own chooosing?)

 

[kwanfan1818]

But we will have two pairs at the Olympics, so there will be at least the possibility for them to split between SP/FS.

We had two Pairs in Sochi, too, and only Castelli/Shnapir competed in the TE.

Substitutions are assigned by the strength of the discipline, and, stupidly, the ISU only allows two substitutions. The Men and Dance will have first dibs on substitutions, then Women, then Pairs. There is very little chance that there will be substitution slots left by the time Pairs are nominated, with an Olympic medal on the line, as opposed to a warm-up opportunity for the short.

 

[skylark]

We had two Pairs in Sochi, too, and only Castelli/Shnapir competed in the TE.

Substitutions are assigned by the strength of the discipline, and, stupidly, the ISU only allows two substitutions. The Men and Dance will have first dibs on substitutions, then Women, then Pairs. There is very little chance that there will be substitution slots left by the time Pairs are nominated, with an Olympic medal on the line, as opposed to a warm-up opportunity for the short.

Oh, right, sorry. I misunderstood your earlier statement at first.

 

[Spiralgraph]

.... The top two Dance teams have the same coaches, who will likely decide whether they should split the programs and how, or that one should do both, in which case the other will decline due to individual podium chance strategy blah, blah, blah. (I think the former will happen.) .....

I mostly agree with you, Kwanfan1818 except for this part. Seeing as how both H/D and C/B are experienced older adult athletes, I think they, not their coaches, will make their decisions on which segments of the team event the want to do. Yeah they're on friendlty terms with each other but they're also competitive. I bet each team would do both segments if given a chance.

To get back on topic, Nathan will be given first dibs, andI think his choice will be like last time, to do the SP only. As to who might skate the LP, right now I'm not sure, it's still too early for me.