ETA - On to Jason, it would be nice to see him land a quad. I think he would stay ahead of Ilia with a decent quad. Alas, it's been so elusive.
I don't think Jason needs a quad to beat Ilia -- although it might be close -- but he'll need to be perfect otherwise. AKA he needs to hit all three 3As. He's clearly capable of that, but he won't have much room for error without a quad. And as much as I'm hoping otherwise, I don't expect him to land a quad.
How quickly y'all forget Worlds!
I think it was called under, but he did land a quad, and top skaters generally get friendlier calls at Nationals.
I don't think Brown landing a "clean" quad at Nationals (where he'll be training to peak) is out of the question. And honestly I think he'll get a boost in reputation PCS (not that there's much room above what he'll likely get anyways) if he stands up on one, even if it's messy.