How likely is it that the US can compete for Gold against Russia in the Team event? I haven’t played out the scenarios, but I assume competing for Gold is a hard ask. I can see Brown doing the Team FS if it doesn’t matter whether he’s 1st or 5th in team because the US sits in silver position with Gold and Bronze having too large of point differentials.
The US can beat Russia in both the Men and Dance segments; Russia will win the Women and Pairs segments. With Korea out of the team event, that puts the US in a solid "no worse than 3rd" for the Women, potentially even 2nd if they use Alysa in both. In Pairs, I could see China opting to save S/H for the individual event alone and use P/J only - if China doesn't qualify for the FS (it will be close between China and Italy) that leaves the US in a position to potentially finish 2nd in the Pairs FS segment. Then, there's Dance - with France out of the picture, that leaves it as a battle between the US, Russia and Canada - if the US can finish ahead of RUS in both the RD and FD then it will be a tie, or potentially the US at least a point ahead of RUS if the US beats RUS by two spots in one of the Dance segments. That leaves Men, which is the most volatile of disciplines - assume the US & Japan go 1-2; Canada, Italy, Czech Republic, China and Georgia all have men capable of beating whichever guy Russia puts in the Team Event, and we all saw what happened in Pyeongchang when Aliev bombed both segments. Russia won't be substituting for the Men - they'll substitute for the Women and Pairs since any 2 entries they put in those segments are almost a lock for 1st in both segments. My projections show Russia is most vulnerable in Men and the US, if they really want a legitimate shot at gold, will make sure that Nathan and Vincent are sent up in the SP and FS respectively. Jason doesn't have the technical firepower to beat Russia and put the distance necessary to win that Nathan and Vincent can provide.
We're not talking about team silver here, we're talking about team gold. Russia is not the foregone winner that some of you seem to believe. There's no reason for the US to concede the team gold this fall/early winter by giving Nathan and Vincent passes on participating in the team event. Beyond that, we don't know if the schedule is going to remain what it currently is with Pairs wrapping up the Olympics. It very well could be that the Chinese organizers, the IOC and the ISU agree to put it back to the traditional schedule of Pairs, Men, Dance, Women since China has zero shot at a team medal and they could throw P/J into the team SP with the assumption that they don't make the team FS. The whole point of switching the schedule up was because China thought it had a chance at a team medal and now it's clear they don't.
That's the way I see it, yes, but the US isn't as far out of it as some people would have you believe. There are a lot of variables but with certain countries out of the mix (France and Korea) completely and China potentially missing the FS, it makes it a lot closer than imagined.
Exactly. I'd much rather have Nathan in the SP and Vincent in the FS, if the USFS and USOC decide they want to really try for the team event gold.
Well if it’s possible the schedule could change, obviously that changes things. But regardless of whether the US is targeting team gold or silver, if both Nathan and Vincent are strong candidates for individual medals, I’d be really surprised if that wasn’t taken into account when figuring out Team USA’s overall medal strategy.
Oh, but that is exactly why the traditional schedule was changed in the first place - China wanted to maximize its chances at winning a team medal and pairs gold. Now that a team medal is out of the question, what does it matter if Pairs starts the day after the Team Event ends rather than the Men? Why not switch it back to the traditional order. The days the events are held won't change, just the order in which the disciplines go.
That is the best explanation for this whole schedule change of figure skating events I've heard! Now it all makes sense to me.
Because the events order is set, and broadcast schedules are set, and the planning for the venue is set. Changing the traditional schedule to suit the host country when the schedule is created is one thing, but changing the schedule after it's been announced & just 5 months before the games begin is different thing.
You're right, nothing's set in stone, was just saying I don't think Vincent would refuse to do the FS segment of the free skate even if it is close to the individual SP since it's his best chance of winning an Olympic medal.
I’d have Brown do the short. He has historically scored very high in the short.
I'd still prefer Nathan if he's willing
Historically scoring high isn't the same as winning the segment. Yes, he typically scores high but he is very beatable by men with quads when they hit in the SP - his Worlds 2021 score had him behind JPN, RUS, & CAN, whereas Nathan's 2021 score had him behind only JPN. If you take Jason's 2019 SP score from Worlds and dropped it into the 2021 Worlds SP scores, he would have risen above RUS & CAN, but, heck looking at the 2019 standings alone, he would have been in 1st overall... But why take a gamble that Jason can duplicate his 2019 score and beat the entrants from every other country when he could just as easily lose two very valuable points for the US to RUS, especially when you have Nathan who is guaranteed to not lose any points to RUS?
I would too. I trust that he and Raf have looked carefully at the Beijing schedule and know what they need to do to taper Nathan's training to enable his to do the team SP.
Agreed. Nathan was the strongest medal contender in either of the singles disciplines in 2018 and he did the team SP. That is what he would do again and, strategically, it makes more sense to have him do the SP, especially if Vincent can continue to score high enough this season in the FS to beat the rest of the likely field in the team FS.
I think the US has a strong hold on silver at worst and a really good chance at gold. With Korea missing the team event, the US doesn't have to worry about their ladies finishing ahead of them in either the SP or FS, and Alysa is coming on strong enough that while, at this moment, I project her to finish 3rd in both segments to JPN and RUS, it isn't out of the realm of possibility for her to finish higher, especially in the SP. In Pairs, even if China sends out S/H for the SP, there's no guarantee that the RUS pair will beat them and the rest of the field is wide open - K/F are competitive with the pairs teams that CAN, ITA, JPN & GER will use (GEO, CZE & UKR Pairs teams are going to have to make vast improvements to compete with that middle 5). China won't make the FS, so agaim, it will be a matter of where K/F place in a field made up of teams they are more than capable of beating after RUS wins. Dance is also impacted by France not qualifying for the team event. We'll see how the RDs and FDs stack up this season but the general consensus after ACI, US Classic and Russian Test Skates last weekend was that H/D and P/G have superior RDs and FDs to SinKats. We'll see what people think after SinKats show their revised FD at their upcoming Russia Cup event and the Denis Ten Memorial Challenger but, right now, the US could have a 3-4 point lead in the team dance segments alone. My belief is that this year's team gold really could come down to the Men and if the USFS/USOC are really interested in contending for the gold rather than just sitting back and taking a silver, they'll want Nathan in the SP and Vincent in the FS.
I have to wonder if Nathan’s choice to do Skate America and then Skate Canada back to back was in fact a way to practice skating two competitions one after the other.
Possibly. I also think that it eliminates traveling outside North America, enables a nonstop, 2.5 hour flight due north and gets him back to full time training by November1st. He will be receiving valuable feedback on his programs early in the season, giving him the chance to tweak/change programs if necessary.
