ISU to evaluate feasibility of 2020-21 skating season

[MacMadame]

The discussion was whether the Summer Olympics will happen — nations will make sure their Olympic teams are ready to go.

Some of us are talking about Worlds though. That's a whole different ballgame than the Summer Olympics.

 

[Sylvia]

Just noticed today that I missed listing this competition that was originally scheduled in December:

POSTPONED Latvian Trophy 2020 Dec 11 - Dec 13, 2020 Marupe /LAT

ISU CALENDAR OF EVENTS (competitions still listed as of Nov. 14, 2020): https://www.isu.org/figure-skating/events/figure-skating-calendar
...
POSTPONED 53rd Golden Spin of Zagreb, Dec 02 - Dec 05, 2020 Zagreb /CRO
British Inclusive Skating Virtual International Championships, Dec 05 - Dec 19, 2020
POSTPONED ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final, Dec 10 - Dec 13, 2020 Beijing /CHN [change of location being considered but event could also be cancelled]
Winter Star 2020, Dec 11 - Dec 13, 2020 Minsk /BLR
POSTPONED Sarajevo Open 2020, Dec 18 - Dec 20, 2020 Sarajevo /BIH

Mentor Torun Cup, Jan 05 - Jan 10, 2021 Torún /POL
14th Europa Cup Skate Helena, Jan 12 - Jan 16, 2021 Belgrade /SRB
Edusport Trophy, Jan 13 - Jan 17, 2021 Bucharest /ROU
ISU European Figure Skating Championships, Jan 25 - Jan 31, 2021 Zagreb /CRO
Reykjavik International Games, Jan 29 - Jan 31, 2021 Reykjavik /ISL

Egna Dance Trophy, Feb 02 - Feb 07, 2021 Egna /IT
Sofia Trophy, Feb 02 - Feb 07, 2021 Sofia /BUL
Nordics & Nordic Open 2021, Feb 03 - Feb 07, 2021 Copenhagen /DEN
Dragon Trophy & Tivoli Cup, Feb 04 - Feb 07, 2021 Ljubljana /SLO
LuMi Dance Trophy (memory of L. Mikhailovskaya), Feb 10 - Feb 13, 2021 Odessa /UKR
Jegvirag Cup, Feb 12 - Feb 14, 2021 Miskolc /HUN
Open Ice Mall Cup, Feb 17 - Feb 20, 2021 Eilat /ISR
Tallink Hotels Cup, Feb 18 - Feb 21, 2021 Tallinn /EST
Bellu Memorial, Feb 25 - Feb 28, 2021 Bucharest /ROU
Challenge Cup, Feb 25 - Feb 28, 2021 Den Haag /NED

ISU World Junior Figure Skating Championships, Mar 01 - Mar 07, 2021 Harbin /CHN
13th Tirnavia Ice Cup, (new dates) Mar 11 - Mar 14, 2021 Trnava /SVK
Coupe de Printemps, Mar 12 - Mar 14, 2021 Kockelscheuer /LUX
Skate Celje, (new dates) Mar 18 - Mar 21, 2021 Celje /SLO
ISU World Figure Skating Championships, Mar 22 - Mar 28, 2021 Stockholm /SWE
Abu Dhabi Classic Trophy, Mar 26 - Mar 27, 2021 Abu Dhabi /UAE
Egna Spring Trophy, Mar 26 - Mar 28, 2021 Egna /ITA

Spring Talents Cup Ukraine, Apr 01 - Apr 03, 2021 Brovary /UKR
Black Sea Ice Cup, Apr 07 - Apr 11, 2021 Kranevo /BUL
Triglav Trophy & Narcisa Cup, Apr 07 - Apr 11, 2021 Jesenice /SLO
Ice Cup, Apr 09 - Apr 11, 2021 Minsk /BLR
World Team Trophy, Apr 15 - Apr 18, 2021 Osaka /JPN
Kurbada Cup, Apr 17 - Apr 18, 2021 Riga /LAT

ISU International Adult Competition, May 09 - May 15, 2021 Oberstdorf /GER
Uzbekistan Open Figure Skating Competition, May 14 - May 16, 2021 Tashkent /UZB

 

[Colonel Green]

IMO they will face a lot of backlash if the Olympic athletes get the vaccine before the front-line workers and health-care providers do. Or before other workers in high-contact jobs, like teachers.

Athletes have already been getting vastly superior access to COVID testing in many areas (particularly in the US). You may or may not approve, but it’s a fact that sports are a priority for both governments and the public.

Beyond which, based on current projections people like healthcare workers will be covered well before the Summer Olympics.

 

[skatfan]

Beyond which, based on current projections people like healthcare workers will be covered well before the Summer Olympics.

It’s not just healthcare workers, it’s populations like the Navajo and other brown and black communities that have been disproportionately affected by COVID, and the elderly in congregate settings. Putting top athletes ahead of them will be a mistake.

I expect to be near the bottom of the heap on getting a vaccine and I’m ok with that.

 

[overedge]

Athletes have already been getting vastly superior access to ********* testing in many areas (particularly in the US). You may or may not approve, but it’s a fact that sports are a priority for both governments and the public.

It's not a fact. Testing and access to the vaccine are not the same thing, and I haven't heard athletes mentioned once in discussions of priorities for a vaccine, if or when it becomes available.

 

[Vagabond]

I would expect that most countries would put elite athletes right down at the bottom of the list for vaccinations. As a group, they tend to be young, fit, and healthy. Figure skaters are usually slim as well and therefore would probably be even less of a priority than athletes with a higher Body Mass Index.

 

[Lemonade20]

We don't know how they will distribute the vaccine, and to whom yet. So it's a little bit too early to be discussing that. What we should be discussing is HOW we can have qualifying competitions when we already missed Worlds 2020 and several competitions this year. Virtual may be one way to go, but it's just not the same. Will they have to change how skaters qualify again? And who should be skating? There are so many questions right now that we haven't found the answers to yet. I'm glad there are smaller, regional competitions. But will this be our reality going into 2021?

 

[AxelAnnie]

We don't know how they will distribute the vaccine, and to whom yet. So it's a little bit too early to be discussing that. What we should be discussing is HOW we can have qualifying competitions when we already missed Worlds 2020 and several competitions this year. Virtual may be one way to go, but it's just not the same. Will they have to change how skaters qualify again? And who should be skating? There are so many questions right now that we haven't found the answers to yet. I'm glad there are smaller, regional competitions. But will this be our reality going into 2021?

I don't think you can have the qualifiers unless you just use nats.

 

[Scott512]

Brilliant analysis.

I will be right there not taking that vaccine with you.
Given that "facts" change al. Almost daily... I will be waiting to see what happens before I get in line for the shots.

Supposedly there over 90% success rate with the trial. but what happens to those five to 10% of the people it's not working for?

I'm surprised how many football players in America have contracted or tested positive for covid-19 and then shake it off in a few days by 3 had a cold.

 

[MsZem]

Suppodle there over 90% success rate with the trial. but what happens to those five to 10% of the people it's not working for?

That's why the goal with a vaccine is herd immunity, to cover those who might not get the same benefits but will now be less likely to get it.

I'm surprised how many football players in America have contracted or tested positive for *********-19 and then shake it off in a few days by 3 had a cold.

Freddie Freeman had a pretty unpleasant case of CoV19 in early July, and ended up winning the NL MVP award by some margin. But different people react to it in different ways.

 

[gkelly]

I don't think you can have the qualifiers unless you just use nats.

Nationals are how most federations choose which of their own specific SKATERS to send to the ISU championships. Many of them also use other considerations in addition -- and many of those other considerations don't exist for this season. So if there is a world championship of some sort, most federations may end up using their nationals alone to choose their team.

However, there the other question is how to determine how many spots each FEDERATION is allowed at 2021 Worlds (that might be easy -- just use the slots available from the cancelled 2020 Worlds) and, more complexly, to determine how many spots would be available for each federation at 2022 Worlds, and Olympics if it happens.

Individual federations' nationals would have nothing to do with determining the number of slots at the ISU events/Olympics. Though they likely will figure heavily into how the federations determine which specific skaters will use those spots.

 

[skategal]

Summer Olympic Athletes will most likely get the vaccine around the same time (perhaps a bit before) the general population will get it and after targeted groups get it (the targeted groups list may be different for each country.)

But I do expect that athletes will have it in time for the Olympics to occur.

I expect the big vaccination push for the general population will be over the summer months.

 

[Orm Irian]

I expect the big vaccination push for the general population will be over the summer months.

...summer is twelve days away.

 

[missing]

...summer is twelve days away.

Lucky you. We still have to wait more than a month for winter.

 

[skategal]

...summer is twelve days away.

Lol...Tokyo summer.

Wish we were heading to summer again.

Enjoy!

 

[concorde]

I have heard alot about the efficacy of the vaccine but nothing about its longevity. Has anyone heard that mentioned?

The news reports that certain very unlucky people are getting it a second time. How is that related (or not) to the longivity of the vaccine?

 

[MsZem]

I have heard alot about the efficacy of the vaccine but nothing about its longevity. Has anyone heard that mentioned?

The news reports that certain very unlucky people are getting it a second time. How is that related (or not) to the longivity of the vaccine?

Well, how is anyone supposed to know that, given that both the vlrus and the vaccine are new?

This research suggests that immunity should last, but note that it has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal:

Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint (Published 2020)

Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response, researchers reported.

nyti.ms

 

[AxelAnnie]

I have heard alot about the efficacy of the vaccine but nothing about its longevity. Has anyone heard that mentioned?

The news reports that certain very unlucky people are getting it a second time. How is that related (or not) to the longivity of the vaccine?

Listening to news reports it will be a two shot process

 

[Spikefan]

They said on the nightly news last night the vaccine would go to people in four phases in the US. First group would be first responders and immunosuppressed. Second age 65+ and vulnerable populations. Third age 18-30. Fourth everyone else. Most elite athletes would fall into phase three but it was not clear who exactly determined these phases and I’m sure wealthy people will find a way to get it as soon as they want.

 

[MacMadame]

Second age 65+ and vulnerable populations. Third age 18-30. Fourth everyone else.

Did they give any indication what "vulnerable populations" meant? Also, why 18-30 before 0-17 & 31-64? That seems weird. I would want kids to get it so they can go to school no matter how many cases are in their community. And I think the 40-64 age group is a lot more vulnerable than the 18-39 age group.

 

[Spikefan]

Did they give any indication what "vulnerable populations" meant? Also, why 18-30 before 0-17 & 31-64? That seems weird. I would want kids to get it so they can go to school no matter how many cases are in their community. And I think the 40-64 age group is a lot more vulnerable than the 18-39 age group.

No minors will get it as it has not been tested on children (by the time it is ready they may have tested on children so that could change). There was no clarification on “vulnerable” and I was surprised by 18-30 before 31-64, maybe because that is college age and the largest bar group, biggest spreaders (?).

 

[seabm7]

No minors will get it as it has not been tested on children (by the time it is ready they may have tested on children so that could change). There was no clarification on “vulnerable” and I was surprised by 18-30 before 31-64, maybe because that is college age and the largest bar group, biggest spreaders (?).

Recently I read an article on how to supress superspreaders by giving them the vaccine first, so the age group 18-30 makes sense.

 

[Vagabond]

The reporting on the four phases is spotty, but this article, which pertains to North Carolina, is the best I found during a quick search:

North Carolina health officials lay out COVID-19 vaccination plan

The NC Vaccination Planning Team released an outline for a distributing vaccine when it is available. The plan includes four phases.

www.wcnc.com

Children would be vaccinated in Phase 3, along with young adults and essential workers who have no underlying health conditions, but who are at increased risk for exposure due to their jobs.

It still isn't clear that any figure skaters in Phase 3 would be vaccinated early enough to participate in Worlds as it is currently scheduled.

 

[concorde]

Well, how is anyone supposed to know that, given that both the vlrus and the vaccine are new?

This research suggests that immunity should last, but note that it has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal:

Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint (Published 2020)

Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response, researchers reported.

nyti.ms

I would hope the researchers have some clue as to how long the vaccine will last. I am curious as to when this report will complete the peer review process. And remember each vaccine is unique so not all will have the same longevity.

Listening to news reports it will be a two shot process

The Pfizer one (>90% efficacy) has to be stored at ~-70C. Two doses are required, 3 weeks apart.
The Moderna one (94.5% efficacy) has to be stored at ~-20C. Two doses are required but I have not seen anything about the timing.

 

[AxelAnnie]

I would hope the researchers have some clue as to how long the vaccine will last. I am curious as to when this report will complete the peer review process. And remember each vaccine is unique so not all will have the same longevity.

The Pfizer one (>90% efficacy) has to be stored at ~-70C. Two doses are required, 3 weeks apart.
The Moderna one (94.5% efficacy) has to be stored at ~-20C. Two doses are required but I have not seen anything about the timing.

How and against what are they measuring efficacy?

Wikipedia

In medicine, efficacy is the capacity for beneficial change (or therapeutic effect) of a given intervention (for example a drug, medical device, surgical procedure, or a public health intervention).[7] The establishment of the efficacy of an intervention is often done relative to other available interventions, with which it will be compared.[8] Specifically, efficacy refers to "whether a drug demonstrates a health benefit over a placebo or other intervention when tested in an ideal situation, such as a tightly controlled clinical trial."[9] These studies focus on a primary parameter to be shown statistically different between placebo and intervention groups. Comparisons of this type are called 'explanatory' randomized controlled trials, whereas 'pragmatic' trials are used to establish the effectiveness of intervention regarding also non-specific parameters

Effectiveness refers "how the drug works in a real-world situation",[10] and is "often lower than efficacy because of interactions with other medications or health conditions of the patient, sufficient dose or duration of use not prescribed by the physician or followed by the patient, or use for an off-label condition that had not been tested."

 

[BittyBug]

I would hope the researchers have some clue as to how long the vaccine will last.

How would they know given that it's a novel v1rus and the vaccine is just being developed? Scientists don't even understand immunity for people who had C0VID.

 

[overedge]

How and against what are they measuring [lengthy Wikipedia quote snipped]

Ah yes, noted reputable medical expert Wikipedia

There are posters here who work in health care and who do medical research. I don't think you need to scalp content from Wikipedia to explain the difference between "efficacy" and "efficiency" to them.

 

[Scott512]

That's why the goal with a vaccine is herd immunity, to cover those who might not get the same benefits but will now be less likely to get it.


Freddie Freeman had a pretty unpleasant case of CoV19 in early July, and ended up winning the NL MVP award by some margin. But different people react to it in different ways.

Very true.

I didn't even know Freddie Freeman got so sick. These young athletes shake it off and then go on with their careers and lives like nothing happened. By the way since Major League Baseball only play the 60 Game season it should have been no Awards like most valuable player.

 

[RUKen]

By the way since Major League Baseball only play the 60 Game season it should have been no Awards like most valuable player.

I don't see the point of not having awards, and if MLB had threatened to eliminate them, you'd probably have a players' strike. A number of contracts include incentives for winning various awards.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Someone was the most valuable player under this past season's conditions, which were challenging enough. There isn't one set formula for value.