Whose stock is up? Whose stock is down?

[aftershocks]

the ISU has now chosen to downgrade backloading jumps and to limit quads so that competitors who are incapable of doing these jumps or do not possess the stamina to attempt them in the latter half of their programs can keep up.

That assessment sounds rather strange. I don't like some of these untested and random rules changes, but I don't see the changes as any kind of attempt by the ISU to help certain skaters 'keep up.' Why are you interpreting it that way? I wouldn't label skaters who reach the top of the sport as"incapable" of accomplishing high level technical feats. They have to be able to reach a certain high quality standard to even get that far in the standings. Right now, quads are extra difficult to master for many skaters. So I don't see only those who can land quads being the only ones allowed to compete. That would be counterproductive for the growth of the sport. I realize that right now the more prolific quadsters, if fairly clean, usually are the ones most likely to reach the podium. But that's not always the case, though it is becoming more the norm. Still, the sport is not going to be dismissive of skaters who have not mastered quads -- that would deplete the ranks of competitors. The new rules re quads may not be well thought out or felt necessary by some, but the rules are an attempt to balance progress with fairness. We'll see how it all fares because as Mishin said recently: "The way to Hell is paved with good intentions."

Skaters are confronted with different situations, different gifts, varying strengths and weaknesses, as well as different career trajectories. Any athlete who does not possess stamina will not make it to the highest level in the first place. The recent rules changes have nothing to do with trying to help 'stamina-less' athletes. The specific rule change regarding backloading was instituted simply in the hope that skaters and coaches will go for the option of making more of an effort to create balanced programs.

 

[Bellanca]

That assessment sounds rather strange. I don't like some of these untested and random rules changes, but I don't see the changes as any kind of attempt by the ISU to help certain skaters 'keep up.' Why are you interpreting it that way? I wouldn't label skaters who reach the top of the sport as"incapable" of accomplishing high level technical feats. They have to be able to reach a certain high quality standard to even get that far in the standings. Right now, quads are extra difficult to master for many skaters. So I don't see only those who can land quads being the only ones allowed to compete. That would be counterproductive for the growth of the sport. I realize that right now the more prolific quadsters, if fairly clean, usually are the ones most likely to reach the podium. But that's not always the case, though it is becoming more the norm. Still, the sport is not going to be dismissive of skaters who have not mastered quads -- that would deplete the ranks of competitors. The new rules re quads may not be well thought out or felt necessary by some, but the rules are an attempt to balance progress with fairness. We'll see how it all fares because as Mishin said recently: "The way to Hell is paved with good intentions."

Skaters are confronted with different situations, different gifts, varying strengths and weaknesses, as well as different career trajectories. Any athlete who does not possess stamina will not make it to the highest level in the first place. The recent rules changes have nothing to do with trying to help 'stamina-less' athletes. The specific rule change regarding backloading was instituted simply in the hope that skaters and coaches will go for the option of making more of an effort to create balanced programs.

There is nothing strange about my assessment at all unless one is in denial.

The realities are that you have skaters who cannot perform the jumps for a wide variety of reasons – that’s a fact.

These ‘new’ rules were absolutely put into place to help assist and in deference to the skaters who cannot perform the jumps or do not have the jumping skills and abilities so that they can, point-blank, have a fighting chance. Otherwise, they would continue to be left behind.

Whenever a sport regresses technically by eliminating or downgrading elements, that is considered and defined as leveling the playing field. The ISU had been strong-armed and browbeaten all (last) season, actually throughout the entire quad to do precisely that, level the playing field, de-emphasize the value and importance of jumps on behalf of the skaters who could not perform the jumps or found themselves losing to those who could.

Figure skating is a sport that should strive to evolve and move forward continuously… Mainly if you have athletes that are physically capable of performing a triple axel or quad jump, but now find this skill’s value lessened through devaluation and a new definition of what these jumps are really worth, and then applied to their final score. Why? Merely to appease and for the consideration of their competitors (who do have unique skills of their own) but cannot physically or otherwise keep up in competition via these now controversial jumps.

Look at it from another point of view, that is stagnation, where requirements are pushed back to a day where everyone had/has the advantage… That’s called leveling the playing field for those who cannot keep up due to age (no secret that jumps become more challenging the older a skater gets) or simply a physical inability to do the jumps at all, or very sporadically, regardless of age.

The ISU Congress did not take away the jumps entirely, but their value and importance have been dramatically reduced therefore allowing the rest of the field the opportunity to keep up.

 

[Tavi]

There is nothing strange about my assessment at all unless one is in denial.

The realities are that you have skaters who cannot perform the jumps for a wide variety of reasons – that’s a fact.

These ‘new’ rules were absolutely put into place to help assist and in deference to the skaters who cannot perform the jumps or do not have the jumping skills and abilities so that they can, point-blank, have a fighting chance. Otherwise, they would continue to be left behind.

Whenever a sport regresses technically by eliminating or downgrading elements, that is considered and defined as leveling the playing field. The ISU had been strong-armed and browbeaten all (last) season, actually throughout the entire quad to do precisely that, level the playing field, de-emphasize the value and importance of jumps on behalf of the skaters who could not perform the jumps or found themselves losing to those who could.

Figure skating is a sport that should strive to evolve and move forward continuously… Mainly if you have athletes that are physically capable of performing a triple axel or quad jump, but now find this skill’s value lessened through devaluation and a new definition of what these jumps are really worth, and then applied to their final score. Why? Merely to appease and for the consideration of their competitors (who do have unique skills of their own) but cannot physically or otherwise keep up in competition via these now controversial jumps.

Look at it from another point of view, that is stagnation, where requirements are pushed back to a day where everyone had/has the advantage… That’s called leveling the playing field for those who cannot keep up due to age (no secret that jumps become more challenging the older a skater gets) or simply a physical inability to do the jumps at all, or very sporadically, regardless of age.

The ISU Congress did not take away the jumps entirely, but their value and importance have been dramatically reduced therefore allowing the rest of the field the opportunity to keep up.

1. I think that unless you have a statement from the ISU that the rules were “absolutely” put in place so that skaters who cannot perform jumps can compete, that is just your opinion, not a fact.

2. Under the old scale, BV of a 3A was 8.50. With +3 GOE it was worth 11.50. Under the new scale, BV is 8.0, but with +5 GOE it’s worth 12.0 - more than it was before. Similarly, under the old rules, the maximum points you could earn for a 4Z was 16.6. Now it’s 17.25 - more than it was before. How is that regressive? It’s simply saying that poor to average quality jumps - any of them - aren’t an end in themselves any more.

 

[Bellanca]

^ I guess you forgot to scroll past post #32...

Getting back on track: Rika Kihira fans, stock is up! Lots of buzz about this young lady and her intention to move up to senior ranks. Can't wait to see how it all pans out for her.

 

[kwanatic]

^ I guess you forgot to scroll past post #32...

Getting back on track: Rika Kihira fans, stock is up! Lots of buzz about this young lady and her intention to move up to senior ranks. Can't wait to see how it all pans out for her.

I'm a big fan of Rika (have been for the past two years) so I'm excited to see her make the jump too. I just hope she's working on her competitive focus. She often makes mistakes that knock her out of the running which is awful b/c she has the ability to compete at the top.

I'm crossing my fingers for her.

 

[Tavi]

^ I guess you forgot to scroll past post #32...

Getting back on track: Rika Kihira fans, stock is up! Lots of buzz about this young lady and her intention to move up to senior ranks. Can't wait to see how it all pans out for her.

Thank you very much for such a cogent, substantive, and well-argued response.

 

[Bellanca]

I'm a big fan of Rika (have been for the past two years) so I'm excited to see her make the jump too. I just hope she's working on her competitive focus. She often makes mistakes that knock her out of the running which is awful b/c she has the ability to compete at the top.

I'm crossing my fingers for her.

Agreed. Consistency will be the issue for Rika, but then that seems to be across the board. The depth in Japan is seriously impressive! Who knows what might unfold at Nationals, etc. A real cliff-hanger.

https://twitter.com/rika_kihira/status/1010063592765263872

Thank you very much for such a cogent, substantive, and well-argued response.

You're welcome!

 

[Bellanca]

This is too easy, I know, but the stock is up considerably for Vanessa James & Morgan Cipres since announcing that Cizeron (SP) and White (FS) are doing the team’s choreography this season. I look for them to shake things up, and now is the time to make bold moves. My gut tells me they’re on the cusp of a significant breakthrough.

 

[RoseRed]

This is too easy, I know, but the stock is up considerably for Vanessa James & Morgan Cipres since announcing that Cizeron (SP) and White (FS) are doing the team’s choreography this season. I look for them to shake things up, and now is the time to make bold moves. My gut tells me they’re on the cusp of a significant breakthrough.

Didn't they kind of already have one? They did medal at Worlds this year. And they're programs were already good (or at least popular). I mean, I'm excited about their choreo choices, but John Kerr and Silvia Fontana were doing great work.

 

[mag]

Speaking of Kaetlyn Osmond, I was just thinking that while she is taking a hiatus or possibly contemplating retirement, Gabby Daleman's stock automatically goes up, for the moment. I wouldn’t assign anyone as being Canada’s #1 lady (yet) because of how things can (so quickly) change on a dime.

There is a massive void between Gabby and the rest of the Canadian Ladies. Yes, you are correct that things can change on a dime, but Gabby being Canada’s number one is about as sure a thing as you can get in skating these days.

 

[Willin]

Didn't they kind of already have one? They did medal at Worlds this year. And they're programs were already good (or at least popular). I mean, I'm excited about their choreo choices, but John Kerr and Silvia Fontana were doing great work.

I agree with what you're saying other than the World Medal. I think that reflects the great increase in prospects this season (now that D/R and S/M have retired) rather than any increase in stock last season.

 

[kwanatic]

There is a massive void between Gabby and the rest of the Canadian Ladies. Yes, you are correct that things can change on a dime, but Gabby being Canada’s number one is about as sure a thing as you can get in skating these days.

It's actually the best thing that could have happened for Gabby. When Kaetlyn is on there's a sizable gap between her and Gabby; but when Kaetlyn is off, Gabby can (and does) beat her. With Kaetlyn out this season, Gabby is #1 for Canada by a light year. She can use that to her advantage. Last season was a struggle for her but I'm hoping to see her rebound this year.

I really want to see Gabby up her technical content. Her 3T-3T is a thing of beauty but if she wants to compete for the podium she has to come with something harder than that. I hope that training with Evgenia will motivate her to step it up.

 

[aftershocks]

The realities are that you have skaters who cannot perform the jumps for a wide variety of reasons – that’s a fact. These ‘new’ rules were absolutely put into place to help assist and in deference to the skaters who cannot perform the jumps or do not have the jumping skills and abilities so that they can, point-blank, have a fighting chance. Otherwise, they would continue to be left behind.

Skaters have to know how to perform jumps to get to the level of competition they are at. Perhaps what you are trying to say is that some skaters like Jason Brown have more difficulty mastering the extra quad revolution. That does not mean Jason doesn't know how to perform all of the basic jumps. The extra quad revolution is not technically a jump, it's an extra revolution added to a basic jump, i.e., toe loop, salchow, flip, loop, lutz, axel.

There are skaters at lower levels who do have trouble technically with certain basic jumps, and thus end up not being able to master triple revolutions for certain jumps, which means they usually don't advance to higher levels of the sport. Usually most skaters who make it to seniors can master most basic jumps at triple revolution, although 3-axels can be difficult for some of the best skaters, e.g., Patrick Chan and Stephane Lambiel. It took Jason Brown awhile to master the 3-axel revolution, but he did. Jason is also able to land quad revolutions. He has just had difficulty mastering quad revolutions consistently enough to be comfortable with them in competitions. But that's why he's made the coaching change. Having difficulty mastering the quad revolution does not mean someone of Jason's caliber can't 'perform the jumps.' Jason is technically a superior jumper. Quad revolutions are difficult for every skater, even for those who have been able to land them in competition with a degree of consistency.

Yuzu Hanyu and Javi Fernandez wowed us with suspended quads, gorgeous when they are in the zone. Then Boyang Jin and Nathan Chen came along and showed it was possible to speed up the quad revolution (in more ways than one).

IMO, your stance is incorrect. As other posters have pointed out, the ISU is not trying to assist anyone who can't perform quad revols. They are, hamhandedly perhaps, attempting to make changes that might help balance programs, by rewarding clean jumps over rewarding poorly executed jumps and jumps with falls. It's still going to be important for men skaters to land quad revols in order to reach major competition podiums. That necessity is not going to change.

We'll have to see how the new rules pan out before making definitive judgments and OTT assessments. IMO, your over-generalized view that slams high level skaters as incapable of performing jumps is off-base. Yes, it's harder for many skaters to consistently perform quad revols, or everyone would be landing them all the time. Keep in mind that it's also hard for some skaters to perform triple revols. But since triple revols have been the standard, such skaters don't make it to seniors without at least the ability to land most triples. It's also hard for some skaters to master skating skills, or perfect spins, or interpret music well, or perform difficult transitions. Few skaters can skate with the superb attention to detail and charisma that Jason Brown possesses.

The thing about quad revols is that it's still a journey in progress. The sport is not going to suddenly require that everyone land 3 to 4 jumps in a fp with quad revols, or that every basic jump has to be mastered at the quad level in order to reach the podium. We may be fast reaching that point, but we haven't yet. The ISU now realizes the efficacy of advancing to that point with judicious caution, in terms of how much value is given to specific jump revolutions, and in terms of GOE on jump landings.

 

[Vagabond]

I really want to see Gabby up her technical content.

Daleman was reportedly working on the quadruple toe loop last season. IIRC, someone in broadcasting, maybe Tara Lipinski, said that Daleman was even considering attempting the jump at Nationals. In the end, she didn't attempt the jump, but it worked out for her in that she did regain her National Championship.

 

[kwanatic]

Daleman was reportedly working on the quadruple toe loop last season. IIRC, someone in broadcasting, maybe Tara Lipinski, said that Daleman was even considering attempting the jump at Nationals. In the end, she didn't attempt the jump, but it worked out for her in that she did regain her National Championship.

Everyone is working on something. Quads and 3As are all good in theory, but unless a skater is consistently putting them out there (e.g. Trusova and her quads, Mirai and Rika Kihara with the 3A) it really is just all talk. It was Tara who mentioned Gabby had been training a 4T prior to nationals. Of course I never expected Gabby to go for a quad that close to such important events and like you said, she won nationals without it. But I wonder...Tara put that bug in everyone's ear but has there been any training footage of Gabby going for a 4T? Even on a harness?

I think it would be cool if she went for it but I'd just settle for a solid 3F-3T or 3Lz-3T with a 2A-3T as a second combination and the rest of her jumps clean.

 

[Bellanca]

Didn't they kind of already have one? They did medal at Worlds this year. And they're programs were already good (or at least popular). I mean, I'm excited about their choreo choices, but John Kerr and Silvia Fontana were doing great work.

Yeah, they did, but I’m also thinking about recent retirements and pairs taking a break from competition, etc. and how this will benefit Vanessa and Morgan. I feel like they are the one pairs team that will have an advantage (this season) and enjoy a “stock up” boost from it all.

There is a massive void between Gabby and the rest of the Canadian Ladies. Yes, you are correct that things can change on a dime, but Gabby being Canada’s number one is about as sure a thing as you can get in skating these days.

I was taking into consideration the slim chance that Kaetlyn might return. Otherwise, I agree with you regarding Gabby.

Skaters have to know how to perform jumps to get to the level of competition they are at. Perhaps what you are trying to say is that some skaters like Jason Brown have more difficulty mastering the extra quad revolution. That does not mean Jason doesn't know how to perform all of the basic jumps. The extra quad revolution is not technically a jump, it's an extra revolution added to a basic jump, i.e., toe loop, salchow, flip, loop, lutz, axel.

There are skaters at lower levels who do have trouble technically with certain basic jumps, and thus end up not being able to master triple revolutions for certain jumps, which means they usually don't advance to higher levels of the sport. Usually most skaters who make it to seniors can master most basic jumps at triple revolution, although 3-axels can be difficult for some of the best skaters, e.g., Patrick Chan and Stephane Lambiel. It took Jason Brown awhile to master the 3-axel revolution, but he did. Jason is also able to land quad revolutions. He has just had difficulty mastering quad revolutions consistently enough to be comfortable with them in competitions. But that's why he's made the coaching change. Having difficulty mastering the quad revolution does not mean someone of Jason's caliber can't 'perform the jumps.' Jason is technically a superior jumper. Quad revolutions are difficult for every skater, even for those who have been able to land them in competition with a degree of consistency.

Yuzu Hanyu and Javi Fernandez wowed us with suspended quads, gorgeous when they are in the zone. Then Boyang Jin and Nathan Chen came along and showed it was possible to speed up the quad revolution (in more ways than one).

IMO, your stance is incorrect. As other posters have pointed out, the ISU is not trying to assist anyone who can't perform quad revols. They are, hamhandedly perhaps, attempting to make changes that might help balance programs, by rewarding clean jumps over rewarding poorly executed jumps and jumps with falls. It's still going to be important for men skaters to land quad revols in order to reach major competition podiums. That necessity is not going to change.

We'll have to see how the new rules pan out before making definitive judgments and OTT assessments. IMO, your over-generalized view that slams high level skaters as incapable of performing jumps is off-base. Yes, it's harder for many skaters to consistently perform quad revols, or everyone would be landing them all the time. Keep in mind that it's also hard for some skaters to perform triple revols. But since triple revols have been the standard, such skaters don't make it to seniors without at least the ability to land most triples. It's also hard for some skaters to master skating skills, or perfect spins, or interpret music well, or perform difficult transitions. Few skaters can skate with the superb attention to detail and charisma that Jason Brown possesses.

The thing about quad revols is that it's still a journey in progress. The sport is not going to suddenly require that everyone land 3 to 4 jumps in a fp with quad revols, or that every basic jump has to be mastered at the quad level in order to reach the podium. We may be fast reaching that point, but we haven't yet. The ISU now realizes the efficacy of advancing to that point with judicious caution, in terms of how much value is given to specific jump revolutions, and in terms of GOE on jump landings.

I absolutely stand by post #32. You don’t have to agree. As a matter of fact, feel free to disagree vehemently... However, just for a moment, take into consideration that my thoughts and opinions are echoed throughout the sport, as are yours which makes neither one of us entirely right - or wrong.

 

[Bellanca]

Finland's stock is up and for the skaters assigned to that GP event, it's a nice change of pace.

 

[savchenkoboss]

I think Chock & Bates's stock is down. I don't think Dubreuil & Lauzon suit them at all, I understand why they felt they had to make a change, but I don't think this one will work out well. I also think they have been gradually losing favor both in the U.S and abroad since their surprise loss to the Shibutanis at the 2016 Nationals. Remember it wasn't too long ago many fans complained about their being overscored, and now lately there are even many times we are saying they are being underscored. Who would have ever imagined that for Chock & Bates 2 or 3 years ago when they seemed to be almost the perennial judges held up darlings. The USFSA is now much higher on the Shibutanis (who are probably retired, but they will easily replace them with someone else given the U.S dance depth) and Hubbell & Donohue (who are definitely going for 2022 atleast). I could see them getting on the Hawayek & Baker bandwagon. I actually think Dubreuil & Lauzon are a way better fit for the style of Hawayek & Baker than they are Chock & Bates, and have a much better shot at fixing their weaknesses, especialy as they have more glaring weaknesses that exist to fix than C&B who are pretty solid all around and don't have any one area they can really make huge improvements on. I could even see H&B coming close to and maybe even surpassing C&B for U.S #2 next year. I don't see C&B on another world podium again.

I think Alina Zagitova's stock is down. I think she will have a very hard time motivating herself having already won the biggest prize there is. I admire her courage for even trying as none of Lipinski, Hughes, Sotnikova, Baiul, ever really did. I don't think it will go very far though. She also is winning with maxed out backloaded programs and entirely on base value. She really doesn't have room to go for improvement that I see, especialy as she will never be the best stylist. I guess she could improve her basic skating a bit. Eteri is also known for breaking her skaters eventually, and she doesn't even seem to like Alina much, but that might change now with her pet Evgenia leaving her. I wish her the best, and I could even see her maybe sneak out a World title before retiring, but I don't see her lasting to 2022 or continuing to dominate, and I could also see her really struggle and maybe have a showing at worlds similar to this past year.

Contrary to most, I think Evgenia Medvedeva's stock is up. I think if she stayed with Eteri it would be bigtime down, but she made the bold move to break away. I think the coaching change is exactly what she needed. The big Olympic loss to Zagitova was a huge wake up call, that while she was once considered outstanding technically, the smaller technical weaknesses that exist in her skating are now catching up to her with even greater jumpers like Zagitova and the various juniors emerging. Orser is a master of jump technique and will fix her flutz, and help her master the triple- triple loop combo she would have easily won the Olympic Gold with if she had in her arsenal last season.

I think Nathan Chen's stock is down. Balancing school and skating is just too hard. The good news for him is he so far ahead of the field technically right now, he might be able to hold on and stay on top for another year or two, but unless he cuts back on school leading into 2022 I don't see him winning the next Olympic Gold.

I think Tarasova & Morozov's stock is up. Savchenko & Massot taking the year off and possibly retired, Sui & Han constantly dealing with injuries, and they cant possibly come up with a worse long program than last year. I think they could be the team to beat, and atleast wont be lower than 2nd (possibly losing to Sui & Han) at any competition for quite awhile.