Whose stock is up? Whose stock is down?

Bellanca

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Off-season news, expected/unexpected retirements, splits, coaching changes, etc. leave me wondering how this might affect the skaters and ice dancers as we gear up for the upcoming Senior B’s and the new post-Olympic season. So here’s the question:

Whose stock is up? Whose stock is down? In all four disciplines - or your favorite discipline, and why?
 
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Bellanca

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Stock up

Men: Jason Brown – Despite the brouhaha over his move to Brian Orser and my reservations about it, I think it will give him a new lease on (skating) life! He should be super motivated.

Ladies: Wakaba Higuchi – Winning a world silver medal should be an excellent motivator for her this season.

Pairs: Alexa and Chris - Why? Coach Aljona! This is not to say they will own pairs any time soon but working and being coached by The Empress is an excellent reason to spring out of bed every morning bright-eyed and bushy-tailed!

Ice Dance: Hawayek and Baker – New coach, new location, new quad. Fingers crossed.


Stock down

Men: Maxim Kovtun – If he continues he will have to dig himself out of yet another hole. Sadly, the poor guy cannot catch a break. Many suggest it's self-inflicted wounds.

Ladies: Karen Chen - Karen could use a real productive season especially after bootgate.

Pairs: Tarasova and Morozov - They need some quality programs after the much-maligned Candyman.

Ice Dance: Chock and Bates - It's great news they will now be training with a very high-profile coach/team. However, I kind of feel like the judges may or may not take another look. We’ll see.
 
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Bellanca

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Haven Denney and Brandon Frazier Announce Coaching Change:This would be a stock up development for D&F. I really thought they might throw in the towel after being on the cusp of becoming pairs team #1 a few seasons ago, until injuries, setback, etc. derailed everything...

Good for them! A new lease on life and a chance to realize their dreams the way they've always envisioned them.

I’m for anything (just about) that will get U.S.A. pairs relevant again. It’s been so long… Headbangers??!!
 

aftershocks

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^^ I posted already in two threads about the 'Headbangers' development for pairs competitive programs, with some boffo examples from exhibitions. :encore: That's a welcome rules change for pairs, and I hope it unleashes new creativity. With this announcement, will any of the completed choreo for some pairs teams need a review for some modifications? :watch:

So I say stock is up, way up for pairs excitement! It's a no-brainer that 20 pairs will be allowed to advance to fp at Worlds. It should have been the case the past two Worlds. :duh: And here's again this article about how the ice dance discipline is revolutionizing advances in how pairs programs are being constructed (featuring James/Cipres and Savchenko/Massot):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-era-with-disturbed-dance-moves-idUSKCN1FY0BH

As far as making decisions up or down about individual skaters and teams, I understand the excitement re some coaching switches, but I think it's too early to rate what's going to happen regarding 'stock' for athletes in the coming season. So many things can change on a dime. Plus, there are always complicated factors involved such as political rep, luck of the draw, lack of consistent competitive opportunities, antiquated competitive structure, travel emergencies, injuries, illness, training issues, personal issues, program issues that evolve over the course of the season, etc.
 

Bellanca

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As far as making decisions up or down about individual skaters and teams, I understand the excitement re some coaching switches, but I think it's too early to rate what's going to happen regarding 'stock' for athletes in the coming season.
Bah Humbug! :cold: (I'm’ kidding… :))

It's never too early to take 'stock’ or play the odds re the upcoming season. ;) I'll tell you why, because who we think is leading the pack at this moment, might not even be on the map or in the conversation by the time we hit the GP final, and vice versa. Too many surprises in this sport which is what makes it the best. Plus, it's the off-season... :yawn: Nothing has to be too serious or etched in stone. We've had plenty of that. :lynch: And what are forums for if we can't speculate now and again?

Anyway, I know we have plenty of Jason Brown fans on this forum, for example, who believe his stock (or chances, momentum - whatever word is comfortable) is way up! And probably more than a few who think (but may not necessarily say it) that World Champion Nathan Chen's stock might be down a little due to the fact he will be attempting to burn the candle at both ends, and that may spell (mini) disaster.

ITA w/ you re pairs.
 

aftershocks

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^^ Yeah, it's all in fun, I know. It's great to have conversations in the off-season, both lighthearted and serious. It's actually hard to keep up with everything that's going on.

Obviously, we aren't going to all agree on the 'stock' issue. I still think there are too many variables. In general, your picks seem to make sense. Although, I hadn't realized that Kovtun was actually still on anyone's radar. :COP:

What is interesting is that Kovtun, Jason and Joshua Farris were the top three juniors at Jr. Worlds and JGPF not too long ago. It's instructive to see how promising careers can go in so many crazy directions. I would include Han Yan in that group too. Such a shame for Han that his fed has essentially dropped him in favor of Boyang=quads. Han has a special talent that has failed to be nurtured and given enough chances to flourish. Kovtun encountered fed politics that were out of his control. He also needed to work on refining his rough edges along with perfecting his technique much sooner. At least we have some great memories and moments from Joshua that are unforgettable. To a degree, Josh is another quad casualty.

Jason has been laboring away enthusiastically and giving his fans bright moments even with his recent ups-and-downs. He has been skillful at dodging the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in the era of quad-mania. So indeed, his stock should rise with his recent coaching change. But for me, Jason's sublime skating has always been a blue ribbon winning stock and a super investment for long-term growth. :D :cheer2:
 

Dobre

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In my experience, often the athletes who tour get a slow start to the post Olympic season. And the athletes you aren't thinking or hearing much about, who are home training & working throughout the full off season often show up really ready for the fall and break through.

So I'd say "stock up" for the people who 1. have known all year that they plan to continue, 2. are working really hard right now, and 3. don't have distractions.
 

aftershocks

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... I'd say "stock up" for the people who 1. have known all year that they plan to continue, 2. are working really hard right now, and 3. don't have distractions

^^ Yep, and I think that would include Alexa & Chris, as well as some others who we haven't heard from and who haven't had high profile coaching changes. There's a balance between keeping one's head down and staying off the radar, and keeping in touch with fans to provide discreet updates every now and then as some skaters are comfortable doing.

In the instance of keeping one's head down working hard, when you are coming back from setbacks like a number of skaters, that's generally what you do: radio silence while working hard. However, things are different for everyone. Jason has gone through a difficult time, but he's had a fairly high profile because he's on social media, and he has a lot of fans who are interested in the direction he's taking; he also had a contract to tour and you can't ignore making money when the opportunity is there; plus all the rumors about a coaching switch. I think Jason has handled the off-season pretty well so far. He seems very eager to begin training again.
 

Japanfan

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Anyway, I know we have plenty of Jason Brown fans on this forum, for example, who believe his stock (or chances, momentum - whatever word is comfortable) is way up!

Jason has been laboring away enthusiastically and giving his fans bright moments even with his recent ups-and-downs. He has been skillful at dodging the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in the era of quad-mania. So indeed, his stock should rise with his recent coaching change. But for me, Jason's sublime skating has always been a blue ribbon winning stock and a super investment for long-term growth. :D :cheer2:

I'm probably in a minority, but I'm not expecting to see major improvements to Jason's skating with the coaching change. Because Jason is a mature individual and already has a distinctive, signature style. Team Orser is not a magic pill. Though I'm certainly willing to change my mind about this. But if changes/improvements do occur, they could take more than one season.
 

aftershocks

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I'm probably in a minority, but I'm not expecting to see major improvements to Jason's skating with the coaching change. Because Jason is a mature individual and already has a distinctive, signature style. Team Orser is not a magic pill. Though I'm certainly willing to change my mind about this. But if changes/improvements do occur, they could take more than one season.

I'm not sure what you mean. I don't think anyone has said they expect Jason's exquisite style to change. However, there's always room for improvement in any field of endeavor. It's about trying something different rather than staying with the same fantastic yet well known comfortable moves and convenient layouts. Surely Jason's skating can evolve along with improving his jump technique. He's said as much himself. There's a difference between changing one's style and simply growing and evolving one's overall talent in every aspect. It might be some very infinitesimal improvements in terms of music genre and trying new spins and transitions, or simply the challenge of working with a choreographer whom Jason hasn't worked with before and who may challenge him in a different way.
 

Bellanca

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I'm probably in a minority, but I'm not expecting to see major improvements to Jason's skating with the coaching change. Because Jason is a mature individual and already has a distinctive, signature style. Team Orser is not a magic pill. Though I'm certainly willing to change my mind about this. But if changes/improvements do occur, they could take more than one season.
I wouldn't think so. Jason has a ton of fans motivated by this move, and since we’ve been focused on U.S. men and primarily Jason, I would suggest this coaching switch to Orser is more of a personal motivator than a competitive one. Jason will obviously benefit from this switch (initially), and that is why I've said the stock is up for him.

However, as I have already posted in another thread, as far as his movement up the ranks and particularly at home, I am not so sure he gets past Nathan (without some help) or Vincent… And speaking of, I feel Vincent should have good momentum going into this new season due to a productive last season and a positive experience at the Olympics, etc., (no guarantees, of course), and there’s not a ton of pressure on him quite yet -- but certainly more expectation. The stock is up for Vincent!

Shifting gears to the ladies for a moment, Pogo is on the move, apparently, and preparing for the new season with two new programs (according to comments over in the #TTW thread.) Excellent news for her fans, but as far as momentum going in, poor Pogo is at the bottom of the totem pole, and I would say her stock is way down right now. Things can always change, and I don’t think we should write off anyone, permanently, i.e., Rad, Pogo… I’ve seen too many resurrections of what was believed to be a dead competitive career…
 

bardtoob

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------------
Stock Up:
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Vincent Zhou - I really do not like his skating, but this is about the time, in terms of age, when you see male skaters have better body awareness and strength. That coupled with Vincent always being a very serious worker will make him even a threat to Nathan, Hanyu, etc.

Jin Boyang - He already has 4Lz ability, and he is going to Orser. I have been critical of his skating skills in the past, and I speculate that all my past criticism will be addressed with Orser.

Starr Andrews - She is hungry and able. I don't think she needs a coaching change either because it has not held her back so far.

Mikhail Kolyada - He is good now, willing to go for the big content rather than play it safe, and will probably remain so for at least 3 years.

Medvedeva - I think Orser will give her jump technique staying power, which is all she needs. Although, I think she needs to start repeating the 3Lz.

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Stock Down:
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Nathan Chen - In life his stock is up, but in skating his stock is down because his is going to try to balance college and figure skating. Balancing the two is a hard thing to do since it is not 1948, so both skating and college are harder.

Adam Rippon - In life his stock is up, DWTS trophy and all, but in skating he has gone from "just making the team" to "there might be a no name that is better".

Mirai Nagasu - In life her stock is up, but I don't know that she can summon the intensity that drover her to the perfect 8 Triple LP at the Olympics. There is nobody to "prove wrong" now.
https://www.olympicchannel.com/en/p...erican-woman-to-land-triple-axel-in-olympics/

Zagitova - There is uncertainty. She is certainly a worthy Olympic Champion, but here career could go in the direction of Lipnitskaya and Sotnikova combined. Her body and/or her coach could betray her. Her biggest liability is staying with Eteri. I know it did not work with Lipnitskaya, but would like to see Zagitova go to Urmanov because he takes fully developed students and has technique as solid as Orser's.

Shoma - He seems fragile.
 
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Bellanca

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Vincent Zhou - I really do not like his skating, but this is about the time, in terms of age, when you see male skaters have better body awareness and strength. That coupled with Vincent always being a very serious worker will make him even a threat to Nathan, Hanyu, etc.
I have enjoyed Vincent’s skating considering that he’s been transitioning from junior-level to senior-level competition and adjusting his skills and technique accordingly. However, like any other skater currently competing, there is always room for continued improvement and growth. I hope he has a great season and I agree with you that his stock is up. I hope it stays that way!

Mirai Nagasu - In life her stock is up, but I don't know that she can summon the intensity that drover her to the perfect 8 Triple LP at the Olympics. There is nobody to "prove wrong" now. https://www.olympicchannel.com/en/p...erican-woman-to-land-triple-axel-in-olympics/
Mirai – Okay, here it goes – I’ve been a supporter of Mirai since day one, literally, but I draw no illusions as to her chances moving forward. I think it is going to be difficult (if she continues to compete) with the judges, mainly. She’ll have to do what she has always had to do, except for the very early stages of her senior career, and that is to force the issue and convince the judges to award her the marks. Nothing has really changed, 3A, or not, imo. Mirai will always be overly scrutinized.

Shoma - He seems fragile.
I see your point about Shoma. However, I suspect that he is capable of defeating his rivals at any given moment -- or else he might very well falter a lot this season.

Also, I was a little surprised to read that Shoma, by his own account, was affected as much as he apparently was by his competitors' nervousness and struggles at the Olympic Games... Although, he recovered enough to win an Olympic silver medal. So I wouldn't count him out.

For those who’ve moved over to Orser’s camp, only time will tell if he can stave off the ravishes of time and prolong their careers. There are so many additional hurdles and always new talent waiting in the wings.
 
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Japanfan

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Nothing has really changed, 3A, or not, imo. Mirai will always be overly scrutinized.

A woman should be rewarded no less for a 3A than a man is for a quad. Before quads were common, those who landed them always had an edge. For example, Elvis Stojko usually had to land quads to win.

But ladies aren't rewarded equally for landing the 3A, and I think that is highly unfortunate because it will deter the field from progressing.
 

Rock2

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I think stock is up for athletes who can generate GoE and won't have to worry about upgrading tech.

I look at Osmond and Tarasova/Morozov as examples.

Russian pairs (Chinese probably too) will benefit greatly because they will never need to upgrade 3STh / 3LTh mix because they can do them high and long with held landing edge. Will be pulling +4/+5 consistently and will outscore anyone doing any other jumps including quads. I'll be watching to see how the lifts are scored on GoE. Russians/Eastern Euros look pretty in the air but cover zero ice in approach and in the air. Should NEVER get +4 or +5 but probably will...and I will rage.

Medvedeva's stock will definitely fall. She's only now coming to Toronto and almost fully recovered. Not much time to train and get programs ready for the fall. I wouldn't expect to see any changes to her skating this year except her packaging. Given she skates with average power and relied in the past on hand over head for GoE she'll need a few years of training to develop different tools.

I see Kolyada progressing under the new system. His relative lack of quads and ability to drive GoE will move him closer to the top of the pack.

The other team I see potentially on the rise is Chock and Bates. The Montreal school just seriously kicks some hiney. More than any other athlete or team that has changed coaches, I see this coaching change having the most noticeable impact.

Stock is down for the dance event in general. Most top teams can get level 4s and are given 9s like candy. No innovation seen in scoring to help separate the better teams.
 

clairecloutier

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I agree with your take on a lot of things @Rock2, but I think there is a good chance that Hawayek/Baker may benefit as much or more from the switch to Montreal as Chock/Bates. H/B arguably have stronger basic skating skills to build on, and I think and hope that Dubreuil/Lauzon may be able to have a big impact on their maturity level, projection, consistency, and presentation. Chock/Bates start from a higher point, but may have less total room for improvement than H/B.

In pairs, I am wondering a little bit how the revised SOV will affect James/Cipres. The last 2 years, they have moved ahead due to increased consistency, the throw quad Salchow, and excellent programs. This year, they're trying a new choreographer (Charlie White)--will the programs be what they need? And will they continue going for quad Salchow or switch back to an easier throw? It will be interesting to see how they fare, I think the changes overall are perhaps less helpful for them than for other teams. Whereas a team like Della Monica/Guarise probably benefits from the changes, as their strength is in GOE and PCS, not base value.
 

Bellanca

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A woman should be rewarded no less for a 3A than a man is for a quad. Before quads were common, those who landed them always had an edge. For example, Elvis Stojko usually had to land quads to win.

But ladies aren't rewarded equally for landing the 3A, and I think that is highly unfortunate because it will deter the field from progressing.
I agree, it is regrettable.

I also think these new rules to limit quads and backloading will deter the field and affect the entire sport from progressing which was the whole point to this latest and very transparent ISU Congress and their obvious agenda.

The sport has lost a considerable number of fans in the U.S.A. alone because of the fickleness of the sport and now the resistance to move forward, to grow and advance. Skating loves to stay stagnant … and pretty. Nothing wrong with that, but people have found other activities to pay attention to because there is no longer a notable and significant amount of challenge to a skating competition anymore especially when the athletes (via fluid rules) are being boxed into certain elements… In other words, capped.

Tbth, this is a surprise coming from me, being that I really love a beautiful, artistic program and my entire being is geared toward an appreciation of a balletic trend in skating. However, I absolutely do not agree with the latest developments. I think it’s a shame that the ISU has now chosen to downgrade backloading jumps and to limit quads so that competitors who are incapable of doing these jumps or do not possess the stamina to attempt them in the latter half of their programs can keep up.

These rules, imho, take away the very essence and true spirit of what competition and sport are all about. Sport is about excelling and being the best, not watering down the rules or appeasing the athletes that struggle to keep up. A balanced program is one thing, leveling the playing field is quite another.

What’s also laughable, is that it was the ISU’s own rules that allowed for backloading and quads in the first place, elevating specific skaters to the top step of world and Olympic podiums…

Now, however, the ISU, being the ever-fickle organization they’ve become, have found themselves convinced their own rules and brainstorming were in error, thus leading to egregious outcomes and unacceptable results. Talk about the Keystone Cops… o_O

Stock way down (n) for the ISU / 2018 ISU Congress.
 

Rock2

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I agree with your take on a lot of things @Rock2, but I think there is a good chance that Hawayek/Baker may benefit as much or more from the switch to Montreal as Chock/Bates. H/B arguably have stronger basic skating skills to build on, and I think and hope that Dubreuil/Lauzon may be able to have a big impact on their maturity level, projection, consistency, and presentation. Chock/Bates start from a higher point, but may have less total room for improvement than H/B.

In pairs, I am wondering a little bit how the revised SOV will affect James/Cipres. The last 2 years, they have moved ahead due to increased consistency, the throw quad Salchow, and excellent programs. This year, they're trying a new choreographer (Charlie White)--will the programs be what they need? And will they continue going for quad Salchow or switch back to an easier throw? It will be interesting to see how they fare, I think the changes overall are perhaps less helpful for them than for other teams. Whereas a team like Della Monica/Guarise probably benefits from the changes, as their strength is in GOE and PCS, not base value.

Yes, could be H/B but my gut tells me they won't improve all that much. I think panels are just more naturally willing to give C/B good placements. I feel there is upside in their basic skating that Montreal will give them while importantly I think there will be some packaging tweaks that will draw us closer to their skating. As I said, a gut feel.

My gut also tells me J/C have peaked. I don't actually see them as super strong GoE skaters while their PCS may under the new system be capped because they rarely skate clean. They skate more clean now but are usually good for one major error. Having said that I will predict they ditch the quad by Euros if not before if they can't do it cleanly.
Curious to see where the new packaging takes them.
 

Bellanca

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I look at Osmond and Tarasova/Morozov as examples.
Speaking of Kaetlyn Osmond, I was just thinking that while she is taking a hiatus or possibly contemplating retirement, Gabby Daleman's stock automatically goes up, for the moment. I wouldn’t assign anyone as being Canada’s #1 lady (yet) because of how things can (so quickly) change on a dime.

I see Kolyada progressing under the new system. His relative lack of quads and ability to drive GoE will move him closer to the top of the pack.
Fair or not, I agree.

Stock is down for the dance event in general. Most top teams can get level 4s and are given 9s like candy. No innovation seen in scoring to help separate the better teams.
(y) Spot-on.

For the U.S.A. ice dance teams, the sport has been pretty favorable and kind to them, but across the board, ice dance is lacking, and I think it is because of what you have suggested. Subpar teams are being scored like they are top tier when they obviously need some fine-tuning. It's almost as if there are no longer any clear guidelines or differences between an extraordinarily accomplished, polished ice dance team, and one that is obviously rough around the edges.

I’d question the qualifications of the judges picked for many of the competitions. Do they really know what they are scoring and how to score appropriately and correctly as to what they are seeing and the programs the ice dance teams are doing? It’s not as if they are being plucked off the street, of course, and they do need to be well versed and experienced in judging ice dance, but sometimes you wouldn’t know it. :slinkaway
 

Dobre

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I expect Hawayek & Baker to improve. I expect their competition at U.S. Nationals to improve also. And I'm a long way off from thinking the U.S. team is set for the next four years.
 

MAXSwagg

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I think stock is up for athletes who can generate GoE and won't have to worry about upgrading tech.

I look at Osmond and Tarasova/Morozov as examples.

Russian pairs (Chinese probably too) will benefit greatly because they will never need to upgrade 3STh / 3LTh mix because they can do them high and long with held landing edge. Will be pulling +4/+5 consistently and will outscore anyone doing any other jumps including quads. I'll be watching to see how the lifts are scored on GoE. Russians/Eastern Euros look pretty in the air but cover zero ice in approach and in the air. Should NEVER get +4 or +5 but probably will...and I will rage.

Medvedeva's stock will definitely fall. She's only now coming to Toronto and almost fully recovered. Not much time to train and get programs ready for the fall. I wouldn't expect to see any changes to her skating this year except her packaging. Given she skates with average power and relied in the past on hand over head for GoE she'll need a few years of training to develop different tools.

I see Kolyada progressing under the new system. His relative lack of quads and ability to drive GoE will move him closer to the top of the pack.

The other team I see potentially on the rise is Chock and Bates. The Montreal school just seriously kicks some hiney. More than any other athlete or team that has changed coaches, I see this coaching change having the most noticeable impact.

Stock is down for the dance event in general. Most top teams can get level 4s and are given 9s like candy. No innovation seen in scoring to help separate the better teams.

I disagree. Lifts for me are 75% maybe even 80% about the position.
 

Bellanca

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I’d say the stock of the Japanese women in general is up.
Yes, I agree, their stock is looking up and should benefit skaters like Miyahara - if she can avoid those pesky UR's she has battled for so long.

However, I still find the new rules to be very hypocritical and yielding to those who cannot keep up with their rivals, and especially when you consider the ISU’s recent desire to steer pairs skating in a direction that will bring back and promote big tricks that are sure to leave a pair or two behind… Whereas with the individual disciplines, they’ve decided to reduce or eliminate any adventurous jumping passes and backloading, etc. in an attempt to level the playing field. I’m shaking my head at how they have capitulated to such a lopsided and hypocritical conclusion.

If, for example, Kaetlyn Osmond had won the Olympic title using a backloaded program, we would not be having (or have had) this discussion, or at the very least not as vitriolic a debate… I stand by my comments that this is more about the age of the skaters who have won (or might win) these titles and therefore upset the applecart than it is about their program’s content.

The ISU is fully aware that it is still too early in the game and controversial to raise the age limit reasonably without a lot of pushback. So, they’ve done the next best thing (if you want to call it that) and that is to take away, or water down the effectiveness of what these younger skaters can accomplish in the sport which usually had them passing by and defeating a more mature skater.
 

Willin

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I actually think Medvedeva's stock went up when she switched coaches. If she'd stayed with Eteri I would have said her stock is tanked - since Eteri obviously has new favorites that are not Medvedeva and can't coach skaters over 18 well. So while I agree that she may struggle this season, she has a much brighter future than if she had stayed with Eteri.

As for Dance, I think it's very much a transition year with the Shib Sibs and V/M out. I can't really decide stock other than Hawayek/Baker, who I believe are moving up (they had a strong end to last season and changed coaches to the top coaching team). Papadakis/Cizeron are the only ones who with a clear shot at the world title, and while Hubbell/Donahue, Weaver/Poje, and Chock/Bates are the obvious choices for 2nd/3rd on the podium. With all the retirements I can see spots 2-6/7 being a toss up with some surprises moving up the ranks.
 

Bellanca

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Stock is looking up (y) for Javier. Europeans will be all about him, particularly if he calls it a career.
 
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MAXSwagg

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Well the scoring system says that position is 1 of 8 requirements = 13% of what matters in assessing GoE in lifts.

Feel free to like what you like but it's not what *is* as far as IJS goes.

The same goes for your ice coverage preference. That is “what you like but it's not what *is* as far as IJS goes.”
 

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