oleada
Well-Known Member
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Now that Junior Worlds is over I am sure I am not the only one who's thinking about next season, for the juniors. Any thoughts on who will move up or split up or stay junior? By my calculations, for the 2018/2019 season:
Born before July 1, 2005 - Eligible for junior level events
Born before July 1, 2003 - Eligible for senior level events
Born before July 1, 1999 - Too old for junior level events (except male pairs/dance)
Born before July 1, 1997 - Male pairs/dance - Too old for junior level events
(correct me if I'm wrong on this)
Just looking at ladies and pairs, because I care about them most, bolding the ladies who are senior age eligible for next year:
1. Alexandra Trusova RUS
2. Alena Kostornaia RUS
3. Mako Yamashita JPN
4. Stanislava Konstantinova RUS (already senior age eligible)
5. Eunsoo Lim KOR
6. Yuhana Yokoi JPN (already senior age eligible)
7. Ting Cui USA
8. Rika Kihira JPN
9. Young You KOR
10. Lea Johanna Dastich GER (already senior age eligible)
Obviously, baring injury/disaster, Trusova, Kostornaia and You will be back on the JGP. I'm more curious about the Japanese girls. I had thought Kihira would medal and move up, but she had a bad competition here and I'm not so sure. It's the reverse for Yamashita. Yokoi is pretty low on the pecking order for Japanese ladies, I imagine. The Japanese junior ladies field is quite packed, so I wonder what the likelihood of them getting GP events is. Konstantinova has a fairly high SB (16) and world ranking (22) and I imagine she will move up, finally. Lim would be very competitive with Choi and Kim for senior level ISU events for Korea, so I would imagine she would move up, too. I would think Dastich would both the JGP and senior level events like she did this year. Cui will be interesting to watch. I'd think she'd get two of the US JGP spots and skate at the senior level at nationals. With potentially Mirai, Ashley and Gracie all retiring, and the inconsistencies of the other US ladies, she could be competitive for senior worlds spots.
For Pairs:
1. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 3 more seasons of JGP eligibility
2. Kostiukovich/Ialin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
3. Mishina/Galyamov RUS - already senior eligible, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
4. Gao/Xie CHN - already senior eligible, 2 more season of JGP eligibility
5. Lu/Mitrofanov USA - he ages out
6. Walsh/Michaud CAN - he ages out
7. Thomalla/Kunkel GER - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
8. Feng/Nyman USA - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
9. Matte/Ferland CAN - she ages out
10. Miura/Ichihashi JPN - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
(someone check these for me; math is not my forte)
I would think Pavliuchenko/Khodykin will go senior. A lot of retiring pairs ahead of them in the WS/SB list, and with Stolbova/Klimov so prone to injury, a spot in the Russian senior team for Euros/Worlds isn't out of reach. I think that both Kostiukovich/Ialin and Mishina/Gallyamov will do the JGP, and maybe some senior Bs, senior nationals and see from there. K/I are still very inconsistent and she's quite young/small. Mishina/Gallyamov are both fairly consistent but didn't do any JGPs due to being a new team. Again, the Russian senior team isn't out of reach. Gao/Xie have a lot of issues with the SBS jumps, but it's not like Peng/Jin are consistent, either.
As far as Lu/Mitrofanov, I wonder if they will stay together. They are senior age eligible and have the content....but a lot of the senior US pairs are better. She could maybe use another season or two in the JGP with another partner. I also wonder about both Canadian teams. Both Duhamel/Radford and Iliuchechkina/Moskovitch are retiring, so the senior Pairs field in Canada is very thin, but neither team here has the content to be competitive at the senior level internationally right now.
I'd also love to think about which skaters will be selected the JGP - for Russian ladies, it will be a tough competition. I would think that Kostornaia, Trusova, Tarakanova and Scherbakova are all logical choices for JGP events, but what about Gubanova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, Panenkova, Kanysheva? Only 7 ladies can get two events.
As far as the US goes - Cui, Kaitlyn Nguyen, Pooja Kalyan, Hanna Harrell? Not sure about the rest.
Any thoughts?
Born before July 1, 2005 - Eligible for junior level events
Born before July 1, 2003 - Eligible for senior level events
Born before July 1, 1999 - Too old for junior level events (except male pairs/dance)
Born before July 1, 1997 - Male pairs/dance - Too old for junior level events
(correct me if I'm wrong on this)
Just looking at ladies and pairs, because I care about them most, bolding the ladies who are senior age eligible for next year:
1. Alexandra Trusova RUS
2. Alena Kostornaia RUS
3. Mako Yamashita JPN
4. Stanislava Konstantinova RUS (already senior age eligible)
5. Eunsoo Lim KOR
6. Yuhana Yokoi JPN (already senior age eligible)
7. Ting Cui USA
8. Rika Kihira JPN
9. Young You KOR
10. Lea Johanna Dastich GER (already senior age eligible)
Obviously, baring injury/disaster, Trusova, Kostornaia and You will be back on the JGP. I'm more curious about the Japanese girls. I had thought Kihira would medal and move up, but she had a bad competition here and I'm not so sure. It's the reverse for Yamashita. Yokoi is pretty low on the pecking order for Japanese ladies, I imagine. The Japanese junior ladies field is quite packed, so I wonder what the likelihood of them getting GP events is. Konstantinova has a fairly high SB (16) and world ranking (22) and I imagine she will move up, finally. Lim would be very competitive with Choi and Kim for senior level ISU events for Korea, so I would imagine she would move up, too. I would think Dastich would both the JGP and senior level events like she did this year. Cui will be interesting to watch. I'd think she'd get two of the US JGP spots and skate at the senior level at nationals. With potentially Mirai, Ashley and Gracie all retiring, and the inconsistencies of the other US ladies, she could be competitive for senior worlds spots.
For Pairs:
1. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 3 more seasons of JGP eligibility
2. Kostiukovich/Ialin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
3. Mishina/Galyamov RUS - already senior eligible, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
4. Gao/Xie CHN - already senior eligible, 2 more season of JGP eligibility
5. Lu/Mitrofanov USA - he ages out
6. Walsh/Michaud CAN - he ages out
7. Thomalla/Kunkel GER - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
8. Feng/Nyman USA - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
9. Matte/Ferland CAN - she ages out
10. Miura/Ichihashi JPN - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
(someone check these for me; math is not my forte)
I would think Pavliuchenko/Khodykin will go senior. A lot of retiring pairs ahead of them in the WS/SB list, and with Stolbova/Klimov so prone to injury, a spot in the Russian senior team for Euros/Worlds isn't out of reach. I think that both Kostiukovich/Ialin and Mishina/Gallyamov will do the JGP, and maybe some senior Bs, senior nationals and see from there. K/I are still very inconsistent and she's quite young/small. Mishina/Gallyamov are both fairly consistent but didn't do any JGPs due to being a new team. Again, the Russian senior team isn't out of reach. Gao/Xie have a lot of issues with the SBS jumps, but it's not like Peng/Jin are consistent, either.
As far as Lu/Mitrofanov, I wonder if they will stay together. They are senior age eligible and have the content....but a lot of the senior US pairs are better. She could maybe use another season or two in the JGP with another partner. I also wonder about both Canadian teams. Both Duhamel/Radford and Iliuchechkina/Moskovitch are retiring, so the senior Pairs field in Canada is very thin, but neither team here has the content to be competitive at the senior level internationally right now.
I'd also love to think about which skaters will be selected the JGP - for Russian ladies, it will be a tough competition. I would think that Kostornaia, Trusova, Tarakanova and Scherbakova are all logical choices for JGP events, but what about Gubanova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, Panenkova, Kanysheva? Only 7 ladies can get two events.
As far as the US goes - Cui, Kaitlyn Nguyen, Pooja Kalyan, Hanna Harrell? Not sure about the rest.
Any thoughts?