Who's aging out, who's moving up, who's splitting up - speculation for the 2018/2019 Junior Season

[oleada]

Now that Junior Worlds is over I am sure I am not the only one who's thinking about next season, for the juniors. Any thoughts on who will move up or split up or stay junior? By my calculations, for the 2018/2019 season:

Born before July 1, 2005 - Eligible for junior level events
Born before July 1, 2003 - Eligible for senior level events
Born before July 1, 1999 - Too old for junior level events (except male pairs/dance)
Born before July 1, 1997 - Male pairs/dance - Too old for junior level events
(correct me if I'm wrong on this)

Just looking at ladies and pairs, because I care about them most, bolding the ladies who are senior age eligible for next year:

1. Alexandra Trusova RUS
2. Alena Kostornaia RUS
3. Mako Yamashita JPN
4. Stanislava Konstantinova RUS (already senior age eligible)
5. Eunsoo Lim KOR
6. Yuhana Yokoi JPN (already senior age eligible)
7. Ting Cui USA
8. Rika Kihira JPN
9. Young You KOR
10. Lea Johanna Dastich GER (already senior age eligible)

Obviously, baring injury/disaster, Trusova, Kostornaia and You will be back on the JGP. I'm more curious about the Japanese girls. I had thought Kihira would medal and move up, but she had a bad competition here and I'm not so sure. It's the reverse for Yamashita. Yokoi is pretty low on the pecking order for Japanese ladies, I imagine. The Japanese junior ladies field is quite packed, so I wonder what the likelihood of them getting GP events is. Konstantinova has a fairly high SB (16) and world ranking (22) and I imagine she will move up, finally. Lim would be very competitive with Choi and Kim for senior level ISU events for Korea, so I would imagine she would move up, too. I would think Dastich would both the JGP and senior level events like she did this year. Cui will be interesting to watch. I'd think she'd get two of the US JGP spots and skate at the senior level at nationals. With potentially Mirai, Ashley and Gracie all retiring, and the inconsistencies of the other US ladies, she could be competitive for senior worlds spots.

For Pairs:

1. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 3 more seasons of JGP eligibility
2. Kostiukovich/Ialin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
3. Mishina/Galyamov RUS - already senior eligible, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
4. Gao/Xie CHN - already senior eligible, 2 more season of JGP eligibility
5. Lu/Mitrofanov USA - he ages out
6. Walsh/Michaud CAN - he ages out
7. Thomalla/Kunkel GER - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
8. Feng/Nyman USA - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
9. Matte/Ferland CAN - she ages out
10. Miura/Ichihashi JPN - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
(someone check these for me; math is not my forte)

I would think Pavliuchenko/Khodykin will go senior. A lot of retiring pairs ahead of them in the WS/SB list, and with Stolbova/Klimov so prone to injury, a spot in the Russian senior team for Euros/Worlds isn't out of reach. I think that both Kostiukovich/Ialin and Mishina/Gallyamov will do the JGP, and maybe some senior Bs, senior nationals and see from there. K/I are still very inconsistent and she's quite young/small. Mishina/Gallyamov are both fairly consistent but didn't do any JGPs due to being a new team. Again, the Russian senior team isn't out of reach. Gao/Xie have a lot of issues with the SBS jumps, but it's not like Peng/Jin are consistent, either.

As far as Lu/Mitrofanov, I wonder if they will stay together. They are senior age eligible and have the content....but a lot of the senior US pairs are better. She could maybe use another season or two in the JGP with another partner. I also wonder about both Canadian teams. Both Duhamel/Radford and Iliuchechkina/Moskovitch are retiring, so the senior Pairs field in Canada is very thin, but neither team here has the content to be competitive at the senior level internationally right now.

I'd also love to think about which skaters will be selected the JGP - for Russian ladies, it will be a tough competition. I would think that Kostornaia, Trusova, Tarakanova and Scherbakova are all logical choices for JGP events, but what about Gubanova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, Panenkova, Kanysheva? Only 7 ladies can get two events.

As far as the US goes - Cui, Kaitlyn Nguyen, Pooja Kalyan, Hanna Harrell? Not sure about the rest.

Any thoughts?

 

[shady82]

I was really disappointed by Rika Kihira's showing at Junior Worlds. Despite all the talk of Sakamoto being the most talented senior lady from Japan, I think Rika is the only one who can challenge for World medals or even 1st consistently in the following quad because she can do the triple axel. She along with Alexandra Trusova are probably the only ones who can surpass Zagitova's technical scores at the current time. Sadly her consistency is still iffy. But given that she has gone to the JGPF twice and did very well at Japanese Nationals, I imagine she would get at least one spot on the GP series next season. Mako Yamashita will also get at least one spot, but that makes me wonder whose spots will be shafted (Hongo? Honda?)

Konstantinova is definitely on the GP circuit next season. I also think we'll see Eunsoo Lim. I really hope Gubanova gets on the GP series but after getting robbed of a chance to go to Junior Worlds, I'm not sure how she will fair in terms of ISU standings.

 

[jlai]

Now that Junior Worlds is over I am sure I am not the only one who's thinking about next season, for the juniors. Any thoughts on who will move up or split up or stay junior? By my calculations, for the 2018/2019 season:

Born before July 1, 2005 - Eligible for junior level events
Born before July 1, 2003 - Eligible for senior level events
Born before July 1, 1999 - Too old for junior level events (except male pairs/dance)
Born before July 1, 1997 - Male pairs/dance - Too old for junior level events
(correct me if I'm wrong on this)

Just looking at ladies and pairs, because I care about them most, bolding the ladies who are senior age eligible for next year:

1. Alexandra Trusova RUS
2. Alena Kostornaia RUS
3. Mako Yamashita JPN
4. Stanislava Konstantinova RUS (already senior age eligible)
5. Eunsoo Lim KOR
6. Yuhana Yokoi JPN (already senior age eligible)
7. Ting Cui USA
8. Rika Kihira JPN
9. Young You KOR
10. Lea Johanna Dastich GER (already senior age eligible)

Obviously, baring injury/disaster, Trusova, Kostornaia and You will be back on the JGP. I'm more curious about the Japanese girls. I had thought Kihira would medal and move up, but she had a bad competition here and I'm not so sure. It's the reverse for Yamashita. Yokoi is pretty low on the pecking order for Japanese ladies, I imagine. The Japanese junior ladies field is quite packed, so I wonder what the likelihood of them getting GP events is. Konstantinova has a fairly high SB (16) and world ranking (22) and I imagine she will move up, finally. Lim would be very competitive with Choi and Kim for senior level ISU events for Korea, so I would imagine she would move up, too. I would think Dastich would both the JGP and senior level events like she did this year. Cui will be interesting to watch. I'd think she'd get two of the US JGP spots and skate at the senior level at nationals. With potentially Mirai, Ashley and Gracie all retiring, and the inconsistencies of the other US ladies, she could be competitive for senior worlds spots.

For Pairs:

1. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 3 more seasons of JGP eligibility
2. Kostiukovich/Ialin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
3. Mishina/Galyamov RUS - already senior eligible, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
4. Gao/Xie CHN - already senior eligible, 2 more season of JGP eligibility
5. Lu/Mitrofanov USA - he ages out
6. Walsh/Michaud CAN - he ages out
7. Thomalla/Kunkel GER - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
8. Feng/Nyman USA - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
9. Matte/Ferland CAN - she ages out
10. Miura/Ichihashi JPN - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
(someone check these for me; math is not my forte)

I would think Pavliuchenko/Khodykin will go senior. A lot of retiring pairs ahead of them in the WS/SB list, and with Stolbova/Klimov so prone to injury, a spot in the Russian senior team for Euros/Worlds isn't out of reach. I think that both Kostiukovich/Ialin and Mishina/Gallyamov will do the JGP, and maybe some senior Bs, senior nationals and see from there. K/I are still very inconsistent and she's quite young/small. Mishina/Gallyamov are both fairly consistent but didn't do any JGPs due to being a new team. Again, the Russian senior team isn't out of reach. Gao/Xie have a lot of issues with the SBS jumps, but it's not like Peng/Jin are consistent, either.

As far as Lu/Mitrofanov, I wonder if they will stay together. They are senior age eligible and have the content....but a lot of the senior US pairs are better. She could maybe use another season or two in the JGP with another partner. I also wonder about both Canadian teams. Both Duhamel/Radford and Iliuchechkina/Moskovitch are retiring, so the senior Pairs field in Canada is very thin, but neither team here has the content to be competitive at the senior level internationally right now.

I'd also love to think about which skaters will be selected the JGP - for Russian ladies, it will be a tough competition. I would think that Kostornaia, Trusova, Tarakanova and Scherbakova are all logical choices for JGP events, but what about Gubanova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, Panenkova, Kanysheva? Only 7 ladies can get two event

As far as the US goes - Cui, Kaitlyn Nguyen, Pooja Kalyan, Hanna Harrell? Not sure about the rest.

Any thoughts?

For us there is Beverly Zhu, Maybe Ashley Lin and Tessa Hong.

 

[Sylvia]

Alexey Erokhov turned 18 this past September so he has one more year of ISU Junior age eligibility next season... though I assume he wants to make his Grand Prix debut this fall.

As @Dobre pointed out in the U.S. Men's thread in GSD, Alex Krasnozhon, who turns 18 next month, has won everything on the JGP so it's very likely he will compete senior internationally this fall and could still return to Junior Worlds if he wants (as the JGP Final champion, he is eligible to be selected for a Grand Prix).

Matteo Rizzo is 19 and probably is thrilled he doesn't have to compete as both a full-time Junior and Senior next season. Ukraine's Ivan Pavlov has finally aged out as well.

I'd like to see Canada's Joseph Phan, who will turn 17 in August, compete more consistently on the JGP and fulfill his medal-winning potential (he won silver at JGP Zagreb and was 1st alternate for the JGP Final). It'll be interesting to see how prodigy Stephen Gogolev fares in his first JGP season for Canada.

Should Camden Pulkinen return to the JGP? He turns 18 later this month. I hope he can do at least one ISU Challenger this fall.

Roman Savosin turned 18 this past December so he has 1 more season of ISU Junior eligibility.

Tomoki Hiwatashi turned 18 in January and already has competed 3 seasons on the JGP. With U.S. men not having 14 JGP slots this coming season , he probably should go the ISU Challenger route (he already competed at CS Warsaw Cup 2 years ago).

 

[Tavi]

Now that Junior Worlds is over I am sure I am not the only one who's thinking about next season, for the juniors. Any thoughts on who will move up or split up or stay junior? By my calculations, for the 2018/2019 season:

Born before July 1, 2005 - Eligible for junior level events
Born before July 1, 2003 - Eligible for senior level events
Born before July 1, 1999 - Too old for junior level events (except male pairs/dance)
Born before July 1, 1997 - Male pairs/dance - Too old for junior level events
(correct me if I'm wrong on this)

Just looking at ladies and pairs, because I care about them most, bolding the ladies who are senior age eligible for next year:

1. Alexandra Trusova RUS
2. Alena Kostornaia RUS
3. Mako Yamashita JPN
4. Stanislava Konstantinova RUS (already senior age eligible)
5. Eunsoo Lim KOR
6. Yuhana Yokoi JPN (already senior age eligible)
7. Ting Cui USA
8. Rika Kihira JPN
9. Young You KOR
10. Lea Johanna Dastich GER (already senior age eligible)

Obviously, baring injury/disaster, Trusova, Kostornaia and You will be back on the JGP. I'm more curious about the Japanese girls. I had thought Kihira would medal and move up, but she had a bad competition here and I'm not so sure. It's the reverse for Yamashita. Yokoi is pretty low on the pecking order for Japanese ladies, I imagine. The Japanese junior ladies field is quite packed, so I wonder what the likelihood of them getting GP events is. Konstantinova has a fairly high SB (16) and world ranking (22) and I imagine she will move up, finally. Lim would be very competitive with Choi and Kim for senior level ISU events for Korea, so I would imagine she would move up, too. I would think Dastich would both the JGP and senior level events like she did this year. Cui will be interesting to watch. I'd think she'd get two of the US JGP spots and skate at the senior level at nationals. With potentially Mirai, Ashley and Gracie all retiring, and the inconsistencies of the other US ladies, she could be competitive for senior worlds spots.

For Pairs:

1. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 3 more seasons of JGP eligibility
2. Kostiukovich/Ialin RUS - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
3. Mishina/Galyamov RUS - already senior eligible, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
4. Gao/Xie CHN - already senior eligible, 2 more season of JGP eligibility
5. Lu/Mitrofanov USA - he ages out
6. Walsh/Michaud CAN - he ages out
7. Thomalla/Kunkel GER - senior eligible in 2018/2019, 2 more seasons of JGP eligibility
8. Feng/Nyman USA - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
9. Matte/Ferland CAN - she ages out
10. Miura/Ichihashi JPN - already senior age eligible, 1 more season of JGP eligibility
(someone check these for me; math is not my forte)

I would think Pavliuchenko/Khodykin will go senior. A lot of retiring pairs ahead of them in the WS/SB list, and with Stolbova/Klimov so prone to injury, a spot in the Russian senior team for Euros/Worlds isn't out of reach. I think that both Kostiukovich/Ialin and Mishina/Gallyamov will do the JGP, and maybe some senior Bs, senior nationals and see from there. K/I are still very inconsistent and she's quite young/small. Mishina/Gallyamov are both fairly consistent but didn't do any JGPs due to being a new team. Again, the Russian senior team isn't out of reach. Gao/Xie have a lot of issues with the SBS jumps, but it's not like Peng/Jin are consistent, either.

As far as Lu/Mitrofanov, I wonder if they will stay together. They are senior age eligible and have the content....but a lot of the senior US pairs are better. She could maybe use another season or two in the JGP with another partner. I also wonder about both Canadian teams. Both Duhamel/Radford and Iliuchechkina/Moskovitch are retiring, so the senior Pairs field in Canada is very thin, but neither team here has the content to be competitive at the senior level internationally right now.

I'd also love to think about which skaters will be selected the JGP - for Russian ladies, it will be a tough competition. I would think that Kostornaia, Trusova, Tarakanova and Scherbakova are all logical choices for JGP events, but what about Gubanova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, Panenkova, Kanysheva? Only 7 ladies can get two events.

As far as the US goes - Cui, Kaitlyn Nguyen, Pooja Kalyan, Hanna Harrell? Not sure about the rest.

Any thoughts?

I don’t think either Kostornaia or Trusova are age eligible for seniors next season. Kostornaia was born August 24, 2003, so she misses your cut off by about 2 months. Trusova was born in 2004.

 

[oleada]

I don’t think either Kostornaia or Trusova are age eligible for seniors next season. Kostornaia was born August 24, 2003, so she misses your cut off by about 2 months. Trusova was born in 2004.

I never said they were. I said they’d likely be back on the JGP, along with Young You

 

[Debbie S]

As far as the US goes - Cui, Kaitlyn Nguyen, Pooja Kalyan, Hanna Harrell? Not sure about the rest.

I hadn't thought about Nguyen, since she had such a poor showing at Nats, but if she monitors well this summer, she could be eligible for an assignment. Ting, Pooja, Hanna will all be considered for assignments, plus Emmy if she chooses to continue skating (and I have no info that she won't but I know some speculated she might go to college full-time next year). Starr Andrews would definitely be in the mix if she chooses to stay on the JGP, and I think it would be wise if she did, but who knows. Is Tessa Hong still skating? I think the only way Zhu and other Novice medalists will get an assignment is if the U.S. picks up some extra spots, and I hope we do.

Should Camden Pulkinen return to the JGP? He turns 18 later this month. I hope he can do at least one ISU Challenger this fall.

I think it would be good for him to do one more year on the JGP, given his showing at JW. He is a great skater with a lot of potential, but he needs to learn how to compete more consistently. I would expect him to skate Senior at Nats, though, like Alex K did this year. Although, with only 7 spots, USFS might want him to compete Senior....but could he even get a GP?

Other U.S. men likely for JGP - Dinh Tran, Max Naumov, Ryan Dunk, Tomoki H, Andrew T. I hope the U.S. can pick up at least 3 extra spots.

 

[oleada]

I'd forgotten about Beverly Zhu and Starr Andrews. IIRC, the solo jump for juniors next yer is the 3F. I know that both Starr and Beverly struggle with the 3Lz, so the 3F as a solo jump benefits both. I know that it's still a long way away, and summer monitoring will be crucial, but right now, I'd give one each to Cui, Andrews, Zhu, Nguyen, Harrell and Kalyan. I hope the US can pick up a few extra spots. I feel Andrews will try to go senior, though, since she didn't do Junior Worlds despite being selected.

I agree with @Sylvia that both Erokhov and Krasnozhon will both likely move on to the senior Grand Prix. I think Camden should go back. His 3A is lovely, but he doesn't have a quad yet and I think he still has a bit of room to grow. I think there are a lot of young Canadian men with potential (Gogolev, Phan, Orzel) who are quite inconsistent, so it will be interesting to see how they develop.

 

[haribobo]

delete

 

[haribobo]

delete

 

[Sylvia]

@haribobo, maybe you could start a separate thread for your GP projections/predictions so we can keep the discussion here, for the most part, on the potential JGP competitors next season?

 

[haribobo]

OOPS, delete

 

[Wyliefan]

Thanks for starting this thread, @oleada! I'd been wondering who was going to move up!

 

[oleada]

@haribobo, maybe you could start a separate thread for your GP projections/predictions so we can keep the discussion here, for the most part, on the potential JGP competitors next season?

Yes, please. I meant this thread to be related to junior level discussion for next season.

 

[skatingguy]

I'd forgotten about Beverly Zhu and Starr Andrews. IIRC, the solo jump for juniors next yer is the 3F. I know that both Starr and Beverly struggle with the 3Lz, so the 3F as a solo jump benefits both. I know that it's still a long way away, and summer monitoring will be crucial, but right now, I'd give one each to Cui, Andrews, Zhu, Nguyen, Harrell and Kalyan. I hope the US can pick up a few extra spots. I feel Andrews will try to go senior, though, since she didn't do Junior Worlds despite being selected.

I thought Starr Andrews had already decided to focus on senior events, and that was why she passed on Junior Worlds this season.

 

[Tavi]

I never said they were. I said they’d likely be back on the JGP, along with Young You

I guess I misunderstood what you wrote.

 

[Ka3sha]

I'd also love to think about which skaters will be selected the JGP - for Russian ladies, it will be a tough competition. I would think that Kostornaia, Trusova, Tarakanova and Scherbakova are all logical choices for JGP events, but what about Gubanova, Samodurova, Gulyakova, Panenkova, Kanysheva? Only 7 ladies can get two events.
Any thoughts?

Gubanova’s SB isn’t high enough to get two or even one senior event, so I guess that she will stay in juniors and do some Challenger events. Or she can move to seniors and get that CoR home spot, if she is indeed moving to Buyanova, as it was rumored on Russian boards.

I think, both Samodurova and Gulyakova will stay in juniors and do Challenger events.

Panenkova is 22th on the SB list (8th among all age-eligible Russian), so I think that she will move to seniors

Kanysheva is only 12 now (will be 13 in June)

 

[Jeschke]

I think, both Samodurova and Gulyakova will stay in juniors and do Challenger events.

So why did Samodurova not even do junior nationals this season if she is going to stay?

 

[oleada]

So why did Samodurova not even do junior nationals this season if she is going to stay?

Broken arm, reportedly.

 

[Jeschke]

Broken arm, reportedly.

Ah, must have missed that.
Thanks!

 

[her grace]

For dance

1. Skoptcova/Aleshin: aging out
2. Carriera/Ponomarenko: age-eligible for 1 more junior season
3. Ushakova/Nekrasovz: age-eligible for 3 more junior seasons
4. Lajoie/Lagha: age-eligible for 2 more junior seasons
5. Shevchenko/Eremenko: age-eligible for 1 more junior season
6. Green/Green: too young to move up
7: Lewis/Bye: age-eligible for 1 more junior season
8: Lagouge/Rahier: age-eligible for 1 more junior season
9. Kazakova/Reviya: age-eligible for 2 more junior seasons
10. Schwendinger/Wunderlich: aging out

Other notable names who weren't at jr. worlds Shpilevaya/Smirnov (2017 J4) age out. Polishchuk/Vakhnov (2017-2018 JGPF3) are age-eligible for 2 more seasons.

Of those who can stay, I expect all to do so, with maybe two exceptions. Lajoie/Lagha could move up because they're the 4th or 5th best team in Canada--they'd probably get 2 GP spots. Having not medaled at junior worlds is actually an advantage there (sure, we'll invite your not-threatening young team). But they would be moving up with a thin resume and not a lot of momentum, and if they stayed, they could battle for medals. Carriera/Ponomarenko are the other team who could move up--but unless there's a rash of retirements, I don't see a place for them on the Senior GP. They're only 8th of the Americans on the SB list.

 

[Seerek]

Among those also aged out from Juniors (from my understanding) are:

Luc Economides (FRA)
Jiri Belohradsky (CZE)
Kai Xiang Chew (MAS)
Larry Loupolover (AZE)
Morgan Flood (AZE)
Chloe Ing (SGP)

 

[her grace]

Should Camden Pulkinen return to the JGP? He turns 18 later this month. I hope he can do at least one ISU Challenger this fall. . .

Tomoki Hiwatashi turned 18 in January and already has competed 3 seasons on the JGP. With U.S. men not having 14 JGP slots this coming season , he probably should go the ISU Challenger route (he already competed at CS Warsaw Cup 2 years ago).

Pulkinen should stay junior to work on consistency and maybe add a quad? I think Hiwatashi should get to stay junior if he wants to. Other possible U.S. men contenders for JGP spots: Torgashev, Naumov, Dunk, Endo, and Lake.

 

[RoseRed]

Among the Canadians entries, only the two pairs teams are aging out. For Walsh/Michaud, they should get a host slot at SC since they finished 3rd at Nationals of the teams who haven't retired. And probably 4CC. Matte/Ferland can probably get a senior B assignment or two.

For the men, I think that Conrad should and likely will stay in juniors, though I hope he gets at least one CS event. Joseph might want to move up to seniors. He came 6th at Nationals and 3 guys ahead of him are retiring, so he should be on the National team next year and would have a good shot at a SC spot and a 4CC assignment at least. There are plenty of JGP spots if he wants to stay, of course, and if he does he should still get a CS event or two.

For Aurora, she should stay in juniors, but since we only have five spots, I'd be fine with them giving her one and a CS.

For the dancers, McIsaac/Graham will stay in juniors and should get two JGP assignments. For Lajoie/Lagha, I'm not sure whether they'll move up or not. They would get one GP for sure, possibly two, but with FB/S competing for Canada now, they wouldn't be guaranteed a 4CC or Worlds spot, whereas they would definitely get JW and could get a medal and more ranking points. We'll see what they decide.

 

[RoseRed]

Among the Americans, Lu/Mitrofanov are the only ones aging out. The probably won't get a GP spot since several US senior pairs aren't guaranteed spots / multiple spots. They could get a CS or two. Feng/Nyman should stay in juniors.

For dance, C/P could move up, but the US field is so deep that they'd have a hard time getting a GP spot. They're still pretty young, so it probably makes sense for them to stay one more year in juniors. The Greens are too young to move up, and L/B should stay for their last year of juniors too.

For ladies, Emmy Ma could move up and just do Challengers if she wants. If Ting has a strong summer I guess she could get a SA spot. Otherwise it might makes sense to do a 2nd JGP season.

For the men, it makes sense for Alexei to move up, at least for the fall. He can always go back and do JW again next year. He's 30th on the SB list right now at several guys ahead of him are probably retiring, so even if a few people pass him after worlds he's in a good position to get two GP spots. Camden should stay on the JGP and do a CS or two. I could see Tomoki moving up and doing Challengers, but he could stay too.

 

[IloveFS]

For dance

1. Skoptcova/Aleshin: aging out
2. Carriera/Ponomarenko: age-eligible for 1 more junior season
3. Ushakova/Nekrasovz: age-eligible for 3 more junior seasons
4. Lajoie/Lagha: age-eligible for 2 more junior seasons
5. Shevchenko/Eremenko: age-eligible for 1 more junior season
6. Green/Green: too young to move up
7: Lewis/Bye: age-eligible for 1 more junior season
8: Lagouge/Rahier: age-eligible for 1 more junior season
9. Kazakova/Reviya: age-eligible for 2 more junior seasons
10. Schwendinger/Wunderlich: aging out

Other notable names who weren't at jr. worlds Shpilevaya/Smirnov (2017 J4) age out. Polishchuk/Vakhnov (2017-2018 JGPF3) are age-eligible for 2 more seasons.

Of those who can stay, I expect all to do so, with maybe two exceptions. Lajoie/Lagha could move up because they're the 4th or 5th best team in Canada--they'd probably get 2 GP spots. Having not medaled at junior worlds is actually an advantage there (sure, we'll invite your not-threatening young team). But they would be moving up with a thin resume and not a lot of momentum, and if they stayed, they could battle for medals. Carriera/Ponomarenko are the other team who could move up--but unless there's a rash of retirements, I don't see a place for them on the Senior GP. They're only 8th of the Americans on the SB list.

Have Lajoie/Lagha announced whether they will skate senior next year internationally? I was surprised to learn that they are age eligible for 2 more junior seasons. Canadians in 2022 will be very competitive.

 

[Dobre]

Updating the thread. I'll go ahead & include teams that would have aged up prior to splitting, since it's relevant now for younger team members who may wish to continue competing at the junior level:

Dance Splits:
Stairs & Royer
Fabbri & Pietrantonio
Wagret & Couryas
Galiyanova & Tang
Han & Lochhead
McIsaac & Graham

New Teams:
Galiyanova & Lochhead

Carriera/Ponomarenko are the other team who could move up--but unless there's a rash of retirements, I don't see a place for them on the Senior GP. They're only 8th of the Americans on the SB list.

No idea if Carreira & Ponomarenko plan to move up (I'm not expecting it), but just updating this thread to say that it looks like they will have at least one guaranteed Senior GP spot via World Standings if they decide to do so. (Not certain, but C&P are projected to be top 24 over on a thread on GS, and based on the numbers for all the bubble teams I could think of, my guess is that is correct). Also with Pogrebinsky & Benoit split, C&P would be at least 7th.

Have Lajoie/Lagha announced whether they will skate senior next year internationally?

No. Not as far as I've heard.