If Eteri, Zag, and ISU judges have anything to do with it, Zag's got the gold already on a silver platter.
This, even despite Zag's less than stellar-looking performances this season, which have been over-scored. But then, Zag has always been over-scored on PCS, and the judges have also been ignoring her lack of good ice coverage and her ugly pumping cross-overs. It's not a surprise. The ISU loves to reward skaters they've rewarded previously to uphold their status quo mistakes.
Having grown a few inches and lost some technical precision due to adjusting to growth issues and poorly learned technique which was previously camouflaged, more of Zag's weaknesses are exposed. But ISU don't seem to care, as long as she manages to crank out the rotations. The judges turn a blind eye and load Zag up with huge GOE and unaccountable PCS.
Frankly, Eunsoo Lim should be in this poll in lieu of 'a Canadian lady.'
The judges have been managing Eunsoo's scores in a sort of 'Wait your turn' approach. The way the judges were showering Zag and Med last season, Eunsoo should be receiving a deluge of gifts this season. But they seem to me to be holding down Eunsoo a bit to reserve room for favorites among the Russian and Japanese ladies. Eunsoo was rattled at NHK in the fp after the warm-up collision with Mai Mihara. Otherwise, Eunsoo should have made the podium at NHK. It may work in Eunsoo's favor in any case. Perhaps slow and steady wins the race, ultimately.
Samodurova is a talented young lady, but she skates a bit slow and cautious. She has middling potential, and she's pleasant to watch, plus it doesn't hurt politically to be Russian with Mishin as your coach. The judges at SA did Samodurova some favors in the sp with a relatively high score for a newbie to seniors, and then the judges caved in the fp to Samodurova because she didn't make obvious mistakes. Samodurova was then lucky to skate at Rostelecom, where she mustered the confidence to maintain her consistency again. Thus, she now has the opportunity to compete at GPF in her first senior season. Eunsoo Lim has more talent than Samodurova and should be one of the ladies competitors heading to GPF. In any case, I like Samodurova's look on the ice better than Zag, Sotskova, and Constantinova. However, Samodurova still needs to mature and gain more experience. I think she's been very over-rewarded. Constantinova is pretty and a pleasant skater, but also still a bit immature. She seems to me like a brunette version of Maria Sotskova.
As far as the poll question, we know anything can happen at any competition. Ice is slippery, and all things are not equal, nor written in stone, as much as the ISU judges might expect results to be. Any number of ladies are more well-rounded skaters than Zag, but Zag has the reputation with the judges advantage. And so again, part of the question will be what the judges want to happen, if everyone performs their best. In such a scenario, Zag will win. If it's Freaky Friday, any number of result scenarios are possible. In terms of talent, Liza Tuk, Rika Kihara, Kaori Sakamoto, Marin Honda, Satoko Miyahara, and even Wakaba Higuchi (if she was consistent) are more exquisitely talented than Zagitova. Medvedeva this season still seems like a work-in-progress, and a skater fighting herself as she tries to adjust to changes. Once she gets the transition behind her, I think Med can be better overall than Zagitova too. Winning Olympic gold medal was too OTT premature, and so now Zagitova needs to earn it in reverse, but as long as she keeps cranking out the rotations, apparently she'll be gifted with the scores. I'm not sure how long she's going to be able to hold up though, without improving her weaknesses, and with the young gun Russian ladies on the way up to seniors.
Even Mariah Bell is a smoother and more technically well-trained skater than Zagitova, but Bell has to consistently prove herself to be fully rewarded by the judges. It seems as if Bradie Tennell's cofidence was dealt a UR hammer-blow at Skate America (with similar tagging at Worlds prior to that), and she's still dealing with the fallout damage psychologically. Also, I think Bradie needs to go back to her original sp costume from Autumn Classic.
