Who can beat Zagitova at worlds 2019?

Who can beat Zagitova at worlds 2019?

  • Kihira

    Votes: 148 71.2%
  • Medvedeva

    Votes: 24 11.5%
  • Miyahara

    Votes: 10 4.8%
  • Tuktamysheva

    Votes: 10 4.8%
  • Samodurova

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Konstantinova

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Sakamoto

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • Tennell

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • A Canadian lady

    Votes: 3 1.4%
  • Nobody. Zagitova is the only one who can beat her.

    Votes: 9 4.3%

  • Total voters
    208
  • This poll will close: .

BlueRidge

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On a different tack, people are that sure that one GP shows Kihira is the strongest skater out there?

She may be but it also may take a little longer for her to totally get her feet under her.

I wouldn't count out Medvedeva or Miyahara, nor even Tuktamysheva or Sakamoto.
 

muffinplus

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On a different tack, people are that sure that one GP shows Kihira is the strongest skater out there?

She may be but it also may take a little longer for her to totally get her feet under her.

I wouldn't count out Medvedeva or Miyahara, nor even Tuktamysheva or Sakamoto.
No but Kihira is the only one whose planned technical content can potentially score higher than Zagitova which makes more of a threat than the others
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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On a different tack, people are that sure that one GP shows Kihira is the strongest skater out there?

She may be but it also may take a little longer for her to totally get her feet under her.

I wouldn't count out Medvedeva or Miyahara, nor even Tuktamysheva or Sakamoto.
I think it's because NHK showed Kihira has incredible TES potential and her skating isn't really deficient for her not to be in the running. Like I said before, even if she follows up that NHK skate with some less-than-stellar skates leading up to Worlds, we all know what she's capable of doing. It's kind of like Nathan Chen a few seasons ago. We didn't know when he'd put it together but we did know that he can and when he did, he'd be a big contender. Right now, she's about 6-8 points behind Zagitova in PCS (in the LP) and her TES so far is like 13 points higher than Zagitova's highest TES this season. Those are a lot of points and people are foreseeing that the PCS gap may shrink a little given the quality of Kihira's skating and her actual SS and program construction. Plus, anybody who can do a triple axel/triple toe loop combination will just simply amaze people.
 

BlueRidge

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I've just seen too much to have confidence that any skater will consistently deliver. Zagitova has been the most consistent so she's the most likely. But Kihira might or might not, no matter what content she delivered at one event.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I've just seen too much to have confidence that any skater will consistently deliver. Zagitova has been the most consistent so she's the most likely. But Kihira might or might not, no matter what content she delivered at one event.
But the original question is who can beat her even if she's clean. So people are answering that they think a clean Kihira can be the one to do it based on objective TES base values and the positive GOE she can garner.
 

Wyliefan

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I've just seen too much to have confidence that any skater will consistently deliver. Zagitova has been the most consistent so she's the most likely. But Kihira might or might not, no matter what content she delivered at one event.
Satoko has been more consistent than Alina this season. No major mistakes, IIRC, and far fewer URs than before.
 

BlueRidge

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But the original question is who can beat her even if she's clean. So people are answering that they think a clean Kihira can be the one to do it based on objective TES base values and the positive GOE she can garner.
Okay, so its not that people think Kihira will do it but that she has the content to do it if both are clean. Okay that's not a very interesting question though, just tote up the numbers and you got it. ;)
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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Okay, so its not that people think Kihira will do it but that she has the content to do it if both are clean. Okay that's not a very interesting question though, just tote up the numbers and you got it. ;)
Yep. That's how I knew Zagitova was going to win the Olympics during the Fall of 2017...heck I predicted it on Goldenskate after Worlds 2017. You live and win by the numbers and you can die by the numbers.
 

BlueRidge

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Yep. That's how I knew Zagitova was going to win the Olympics during the Fall of 2017...heck I predicted it on Goldenskate after Worlds 2017. You live and win by the numbers and you can die by the numbers.
You have to have the numbers but that doesn't mean you will complete all your elements in any given competition.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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You have to have the numbers but that doesn't mean you will complete all your elements in any given competition.
Yeah, but we're playing a game of what would happen if things go as well as they can. Plus, in the game of probabilities, Zagitova was way too consistent to be denied that season and there was no way Med would have been able to match it as Zagitova's PCS was climbing and climbing to the point where Med's PCS advantage made no difference. Plus, Med was showing some hesitation that season.

Anyway, this is all conjecture. I mean nobody knows if a skater is going to perform well at Worlds. I mean look at how consistent Zagitova performed at 2018 Worlds. All this talk about Kihira not proving herself to be consistent, nobody is mentioning that every skater can have an off competition. So what difference does it make if someone predicts a skater of Kihira's TES capability can win Worlds? Nobody has a crystal ball.
 

jenny12

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Do people here on this thread feel Zagitova deserves to get higher PCS then Kihira?

I don’t have a strong opinion either way yet, having only seen Kihira once ever and have only seen Zagitova once this season, but my initial gut reaction is that Kihira is underscored on GOE’s and PCS.
Whereas, Zagitova is overscored on PCS.
I agree that Zagitova is overscored on PCS (but then again I feel Medvedeva is as well). I think Kihira, as well as Miyahara, Lim, and many other non Russian skaters, easily deserve higher PCS than both but the point is the judges won’t give it to them (at least not this season), so if Zagitova skates cleanly or even makes one or two errors, I still think the judges will give her enough PCS to put her ahead. However, if Kihira puts out clean (or close to clean) programs the rest of the season, the gap might slowly close.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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Question, in the LP, would a ladies skater have to score in the 140 range to win a medal at Worlds? Of course it depends on how the whole field skaters, but generally speaking.
 

CaliSteve

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I think it's because NHK showed Kihira has incredible TES potential and her skating isn't really deficient for her not to be in the running. Like I said before, even if she follows up that NHK skate with some less-than-stellar skates leading up to Worlds, we all know what she's capable of doing. It's kind of like Nathan Chen a few seasons ago. We didn't know when he'd put it together but we did know that he can and when he did, he'd be a big contender. Right now, she's about 6-8 points behind Zagitova in PCS (in the LP) and her TES so far is like 13 points higher than Zagitova's highest TES this season. Those are a lot of points and people are foreseeing that the PCS gap may shrink a little given the quality of Kihira's skating and her actual SS and program construction. Plus, anybody who can do a triple axel/triple toe loop combination will just simply amaze people.
I think Alina's TES score from the Japan Open was higher then Rika's.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I think Alina's TES score from the Japan Open was higher then Rika's.
It wasn't.

https://www.jsfresults.com/InterNational/2018-2019/japanopen/data0205.htm

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1819/gpjpn2018/data0205.htm

But...if Alina manages to recreate her 2018 Japan Open score (with those huge GOEs that nobody including her has been receiving in the GP series), then I don't think any other skater has a chance unless Satoko and Rika or someone else manages to bridge the PCS/GOE gap from now to Worlds and there's like a SP advantage or something.
 

briancoogaert

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Kihira's jumps quality is so much higher than Zagitova's, even without 3Axel. And Kihira skates faster, with so much more amplitude.
But I admit Zagitoa's deserves slightly better PCS.
Kihira's content is so amazing, I'm afraid she won't skate cleanly all season long !
Too bad Miyahara doesn't have Kihira's jumps !
 

Fiero425

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Love Zags, but I'm still "over" all the jumps thrown at us with the arms above the head! It's old, tired, and actually quite "ugly" to watch over and over again as the less skilled skaters take the lead of Medvedeva & Zags! I remember when at the Olympics, even one arm above the head wasn't allowed so Boitano had to drop it from his accustomed triple Lutz (Tano Lutz) well over 20 years ago! :rolleyes::COP::judge::kickass::sasha1::plush:
 

babayaga

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I think Kihira is clearly ahead of everyone at the moment. I am a fan of Alina, but I think a correct questions to ask is "Who can beat Kihira at Worlds 2019?" Alina is obviously in a growing/maturing stage and is working very very hard to stay at high level. Rika has nothing to loose and is on the rise. I think she is the clear favorite for the world's title this year and it is Alina who has to catch up.
 

Kasey

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Genuinely curious here, @Vash01 ; why post a poll here asking who do people think can beat Zagitova at Worlds, there is a clear consensus of who people think, it is a skater that you voice that you haven't seen, and you AREN'T willing to put forth 5-6 minutes of your life to actually see what all the excitement is about? That seems really contradictory; if you are asking a question of "who" and a large majority points out who, why not watch "who"? Or are you just being really really stubborn?
 

kadavygrace

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It is pretty funny people are even considering Satoka. Satoka would never get the scores needed to beat Zagitova unless she really bombs ala worlds last year. Zagitova has higher base value, much higher GOE, and rightly or wrongly gets higher PCS too. Medvedeva even with her awful start to this season and problems now has a much better shot than Satoka of beating Zagitova, unless since if she skates cleanly or close to cleanly she is a much bigger threat to Zagitova than Miyahara ever could be.
 

Wyliefan

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It is pretty funny people are even considering Satoka. Satoka would never get the scores needed to beat Zagitova unless she really bombs ala worlds last year. Zagitova has higher base value, much higher GOE, and rightly or wrongly gets higher PCS too. Medvedeva even with her awful start to this season and problems now has a much better shot than Satoka of beating Zagitova, unless since if she skates cleanly or close to cleanly she is a much bigger threat to Zagitova than Miyahara ever could be.
Satoko, not Satoka.
 

aftershocks

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If Eteri, Zag, and ISU judges have anything to do with it, Zag's got the gold already on a silver platter. :COP: This, even despite Zag's less than stellar-looking performances this season, which have been over-scored. But then, Zag has always been over-scored on PCS, and the judges have also been ignoring her lack of good ice coverage and her ugly pumping cross-overs. It's not a surprise. The ISU loves to reward skaters they've rewarded previously to uphold their status quo mistakes.

Having grown a few inches and lost some technical precision due to adjusting to growth issues and poorly learned technique which was previously camouflaged, more of Zag's weaknesses are exposed. But ISU don't seem to care, as long as she manages to crank out the rotations. The judges turn a blind eye and load Zag up with huge GOE and unaccountable PCS.

Frankly, Eunsoo Lim should be in this poll in lieu of 'a Canadian lady.' :duh: The judges have been managing Eunsoo's scores in a sort of 'Wait your turn' approach. The way the judges were showering Zag and Med last season, Eunsoo should be receiving a deluge of gifts this season. But they seem to me to be holding down Eunsoo a bit to reserve room for favorites among the Russian and Japanese ladies. Eunsoo was rattled at NHK in the fp after the warm-up collision with Mai Mihara. Otherwise, Eunsoo should have made the podium at NHK. It may work in Eunsoo's favor in any case. Perhaps slow and steady wins the race, ultimately.

Samodurova is a talented young lady, but she skates a bit slow and cautious. She has middling potential, and she's pleasant to watch, plus it doesn't hurt politically to be Russian with Mishin as your coach. The judges at SA did Samodurova some favors in the sp with a relatively high score for a newbie to seniors, and then the judges caved in the fp to Samodurova because she didn't make obvious mistakes. Samodurova was then lucky to skate at Rostelecom, where she mustered the confidence to maintain her consistency again. Thus, she now has the opportunity to compete at GPF in her first senior season. Eunsoo Lim has more talent than Samodurova and should be one of the ladies competitors heading to GPF. In any case, I like Samodurova's look on the ice better than Zag, Sotskova, and Constantinova. However, Samodurova still needs to mature and gain more experience. I think she's been very over-rewarded. Constantinova is pretty and a pleasant skater, but also still a bit immature. She seems to me like a brunette version of Maria Sotskova.

As far as the poll question, we know anything can happen at any competition. Ice is slippery, and all things are not equal, nor written in stone, as much as the ISU judges might expect results to be. Any number of ladies are more well-rounded skaters than Zag, but Zag has the reputation with the judges advantage. And so again, part of the question will be what the judges want to happen, if everyone performs their best. In such a scenario, Zag will win. If it's Freaky Friday, any number of result scenarios are possible. In terms of talent, Liza Tuk, Rika Kihara, Kaori Sakamoto, Marin Honda, Satoko Miyahara, and even Wakaba Higuchi (if she was consistent) are more exquisitely talented than Zagitova. Medvedeva this season still seems like a work-in-progress, and a skater fighting herself as she tries to adjust to changes. Once she gets the transition behind her, I think Med can be better overall than Zagitova too. Winning Olympic gold medal was too OTT premature, and so now Zagitova needs to earn it in reverse, but as long as she keeps cranking out the rotations, apparently she'll be gifted with the scores. I'm not sure how long she's going to be able to hold up though, without improving her weaknesses, and with the young gun Russian ladies on the way up to seniors.

Even Mariah Bell is a smoother and more technically well-trained skater than Zagitova, but Bell has to consistently prove herself to be fully rewarded by the judges. It seems as if Bradie Tennell's cofidence was dealt a UR hammer-blow at Skate America (with similar tagging at Worlds prior to that), and she's still dealing with the fallout damage psychologically. Also, I think Bradie needs to go back to her original sp costume from Autumn Classic.
 
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Vash01

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I think Kihira is clearly ahead of everyone at the moment. I am a fan of Alina, but I think a correct questions to ask is "Who can beat Kihira at Worlds 2019?" Alina is obviously in a growing/maturing stage and is working very very hard to stay at high level. Rika has nothing to loose and is on the rise. I think she is the clear favorite for the world's title this year and it is Alina who has to catch up.
This thread was started before Kihira's NHK performance. We knew that sge had the triple axel but didn't know much more at that time.

Right now Kihira has nothing to lose, and I am interested in seeing hiw she reacts ti the pressure of being the front runner. My gut says she will learn it if does not have it already. She is going to restart the 3A revolution in ladies and that will be exciting.
 

Vash01

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I guess the other possibility is that Med's work with Orser could suddenly gel and she could come roaring back at Worlds. He has discouraged people from expecting that so soon, but Med is a two-time World champion with something to prove. I wouldn't put it past her to dig really, really deep to beat Alina.
Now she has to worry about beating Kihira and that will be much harder unless she masters a quad. I don't see her doing a triple axel.
 

Simone411

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I sure wish there was more than one choice. I chose Evgenia because a lot of times the least expected happens at Worlds and even the Olympics. If I had two more choices, I would choose Alina and Bradie. I really enjoyed watching Bradie's short and long programs this season. I've seen improvements in both her artistical and technical abilities. I've also seen enough Worlds and Olympic competitions throughout my whole life where the least suspected of skaters got on the podium. I, therefore, wouldn't be surprised at all with the results of who ends up on that podium in 2019.

Kihira may have those jumps, etc., but I've seen too many times that the least expected of things happen like falling when it comes to Worlds and Olys. No one I know on this message board or any message board back in the day thought Sarah Hughes would end up winning Gold. No one thought that Tim Goebel would end up with bronze at 2002 Olys., and Paul Wylie won Silver at the 1992 Olys.

When it comes to surprises from nowhere, it can and does happen at Worlds and at Olympics. I wish all the skaters the best of luck and whomever ends up on the podium at Worlds, Congratulations in advance! (y) :lol:
 

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