Who can beat Zagitova at worlds 2019?

Who can beat Zagitova at worlds 2019?

  • Kihira

    Votes: 148 71.2%
  • Medvedeva

    Votes: 24 11.5%
  • Miyahara

    Votes: 10 4.8%
  • Tuktamysheva

    Votes: 10 4.8%
  • Samodurova

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Konstantinova

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Sakamoto

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • Tennell

    Votes: 2 1.0%
  • A Canadian lady

    Votes: 3 1.4%
  • Nobody. Zagitova is the only one who can beat her.

    Votes: 9 4.3%

  • Total voters
    208
  • This poll will close: .

Amantide

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Zagitova looks pretty strong. Not flawless but enough to earn the judges' respect. If she skates clean, she seems unbeatable.

Is there a lady who can beat her at worlds this season?
As of now, I can see Satoko and Kihira, only, as well as herself if she doesn't skate well.
 

DreamSkates

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As of now, I can see Satoko and Kihira, only, as well as herself if she doesn't skate well.
And Zagitova made some mistakes at Rosetlecom - but still maintained a high LP score. But is beatable. At least that is the plan of others such as Kihira (with 2 triple axles in her LP). Several are nipping at Zagitova's heels and she likely feels the pressure of being OGM'ist and constantly living up to that.
 

kwanatic

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And Zagitova made some mistakes at Rosetlecom - but still maintained a high LP score. But is beatable. At least that is the plan of others such as Kihira (with 2 triple axles in her LP). Several are nipping at Zagitova's heels and she likely feels the pressure of being OGM'ist and constantly living up to that.
This. She's still out in front and it will be tough to beat her...IF she's clean. Her LP score was very beatable by the top ladies. Her skating is still strong but her weaknesses are creeping up and she doesn't look nearly as semi-invincible as she did last season.

Kihira probably has the highest ceiling right now. She scored 224+ with an under-rotated 3A and fall in the SP. Taking that score and adding a clean 3A (with the same GOE as her 2nd 3A in the FS), her score goes from 69.59 to 78.68. That score puts her on par with the 79-80+ Alina would get for a clean program. That's with fairly modest PCS compared to the huge numbers Alina gets. 154+ in the FS (again, with modest PCS) means that if she skates cleanly Kihira can earn about 232+...if her PCS go up she could be in the 235+ range or higher.

Of course this is assuming Kihira skates cleanly. She wasn't really known for putting out clean performances in the past but, having watched her the past few seasons on the JGP, I will say this is the most consistently she's skated in a very long time. If that trend continues for her she has a great shot at upsetting everyone this season.

At her best Satoko can score very high and could possibly challenge Alina if she has issues. Technically Liza T could put a lot of pressure on Alina especially if she swaps her 3T-3T in the SP for the 3Lz-3T and keeps the 3Lz-3T in the FS and possibly changes the 2A-3T to a 3A-2T or 3A-3T (if she's capable). Where Liza T has a hard time competing is in spins (which are much weaker compared to not only Alina but Miyahara, Kihira and a number of others) as well as her PCS, particularly SS and TR which are visibly weaker next to the other top women. If it's a tight situation where every point counts this is where Liza T could end up losing.

Lots of different scenarios that's for sure. I'm just happy there's actually some strong competition in the field this year.
 

coppertop1

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I think Kihira is the most likely candidate. She has the technical skills and with the ISU changing the rules so skaters can't backload their programs and Tanos aren't giving bonus GOEs, it's a more even playing field. Kihira also has better packaging.
 

kwanatic

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I think Kihira is the most likely candidate. She has the technical skills and with the ISU changing the rules so skaters can't backload their programs and Tanos aren't giving bonus GOEs, it's a more even playing field. Kihira also has better packaging.
I know they didn't add that to the rules but I feel like the judges are still honoring the arm up/both arms up as a GOE bullet, even though they aren't supposed to.
 

antmanb

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I'm not sure Tuktamysheva is even in the hunt here. What she gains from having the 3A in her programmes she loses by just doing the 3T/3T in the SP and not having a flip in the LP. She's still only able to do 7 triples.

I love how Medvedeva goes from unbeatable to chopped liver in not even a year :rofl:
 

rfisher

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I love how Medvedeva goes from unbeatable to chopped liver in not even a year :rofl:
Exactly. The anointed one is quickly forgotten when they grow up. Don't place your bets on the next OGM winner until after they skate in 2022. :lol: There is a 12 year old just waiting to be the next winner in four years.
 

Amantide

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I'm not sure Tuktamysheva is even in the hunt here. What she gains from having the 3A in her programmes she loses by just doing the 3T/3T in the SP and not having a flip in the LP. She's still only able to do 7 triples.

I love how Medvedeva goes from unbeatable to chopped liver in not even a year :rofl:
I was thinking to put Medvedeva as well. I do not rule her out tbh, but it will take her a bit of time with all the new adjustment etc.

@kwanatic Yep. Liza will have to rely on the mistakes of those girls, even if she skates clean. She doesn't have the PCS of Alina and Satoko, or the tech of Kihira. Obviously, if all the girls skates clean, that is.
 
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bardtoob

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Kihira has a Kwan 1995 Worlds look to her program construction. She has bronze medal, at best, all over her.

I think only a clean Medvedeva with two Lz! and two F has shot at beating a clean Zagitova, which could add a lot of intrigue to the sport. I think Tuktamysheva, with her status as a former World Champion and comeback story with 3A could take a less than clean Zagitova and less than clean Medvedeva.

My huntch is that a less than clean Medvedeva is most likely to be left off the World podium than Kihara on content, Tuktamysheva on content, and Zagitova on program construction.

* We really should be asking ourselves who will make the Russian Ladies World Team. Samodurova is making a reasonable case for herself in the event any of recent Olympic/World Champions show weakness through Euros.
 

giselle23

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Evgenia could definitely beat her if she skates like she did the last three years. She only lost the OGM by a point or so, didn't she? Evgenia is a better performer and has better programs. But she will have to be clean. Kihara could beat both in theory but she is untested. One competition does not a World Champion make. I think the Russian team will be Zag, Med and Tuk.
 

Vash01

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Kihira has a Kwan 1995 Worlds look to her program construction. She has bronze medal, at best, all over her.

I think only a clean Medvedeva with two Lz! and two F has shot at beating a clean Zagitova, which could add a lot of intrigue to the sport. I think Tuktamysheva, with her status as a former World Champion and comeback story with 3A could take a less than clean Zagitova and less than clean Medvedeva.

My huntch is that a less than clean Medvedeva is most likely to be left off the World podium than Kihara on content, Tuktamysheva on content, and Zagitova on program construction.

* We really should be asking ourselves who will make the Russian Ladies World Team. Samodurova is making a reasonable case for herself in the event any of recent Olympic/World Champions show weakness through Euros.

About Russian ladies on the world team only Zagitova is a lock. Liza and Zhenya are in the running, and it will depend on how they do, leading up to and including the Europeans. Sotskova is definitely out. If Samodurova maintains her consistency, I like her chances. So only two out of those three will accompany Zagitova to Worlds. Suddenly their pool is not as deep as it was the last few years.
 

lauravvv

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I don't know that much about Kihira, except that she Landed two 3As and had one great competition. About the Pcs I cannot compare the two, for lack of information on one of them.
There is only one solution for this situation - to watch Kihira's programs (preferably, her NHK Trophy skates) on YouTube 😁. Joking, of course (but maybe not πŸ˜‰) πŸ˜€.
 

lauravvv

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Vash01 - Okay, I understand 😊. I imagined that might be the case. Still, Kihira's performances are definitely worth watching whenever you'll have the time πŸ™‚.
 

essence_of_soy

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At the NHK Trophy, Kihira was so good, she could have just about taken bronze in the men's event.

That reminded me of how Kurt Browning expressed relief that Midori Ito couldn't compete in the men's event. She would have won a few of those titles for sure.
 

essence_of_soy

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Hey, maybe 1995 Kwan could have won under IJS
I think that result may have played a big part in Kwan's dramatic transformation. The feedback was that she looked too much like a little girl, compared to Chen, Bonaly, Markova, and Bobek.

Having said this, I really like both of Alysa Liu's programs. They showcase her musical range and seem age appropriate, too.
 

VIETgrlTerifa

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I am too busy right now to spend time on this.
You should try to find time to watch her NHK LP performance only to see who are the upcoming World title contenders. She may prove to be inconsistent in later competitions, but that performance showed that she has the potential to deliver something like that and if she's not consistent then she's still a ticking time bomb for her competitors and if she repeats that sort of performance, it will be a great competition.
 

Kasey

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I don't like that we only have one choice. I voted for Kihira; but on any given day, it could be Med, Tuk, or Miyahara (even Sakamoto if Zagitova is as off as last year). While I think that Zagitova is a darling person and obviously a great technical skater, her PCS scores are somewhat "Oly Gold" inflated for what her actual performance level and technique look like at times. So the other girls have to be serious overachievers to stand a chance to get on even ground.
 

Vash01

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I don't like that we only have one choice. I voted for Kihira; but on any given day, it could be Med, Tuk, or Miyahara (even Sakamoto if Zagitova is as off as last year). While I think that Zagitova is a darling person and obviously a great technical skater, her PCS scores are somewhat "Oly Gold" inflated for what her actual performance level and technique look like at times. So the other girls have to be serious overachievers to stand a chance to get on even ground.
I tried to edit the poll after posting it, to allow more choices, but I could not. Had I been able to do that, the results wouldnt have been so lopsided in favor of just one skater.

I agree about her inflated pcs but they did that even before she won the Olympics. Even the two time world champion could not catch up with her. However, she is not the only one to get the inflation. Nathan Chen got very high PCS in his LP which gave him an LP win over Hanyu, which was ridiculous IMO. The PCS are used by the judges as -1) reward for consistent jumps, 2) higher level of tech difficulty, 3) skater working on adding more difficulty, and 4) politics- if the skater is number one, two, or three within the fed.
 

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