USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[Karen-W]

USFS defined "consistently" by using the median of all scores at eligible competitions. So for Vincent, his median would be ~286 (Worlds 2021 doesn't count for him) and that is above the 272 threshold for top 5 at Worlds 2021. Also, Group 2 only needs one score equal to top 3, and he got that at Skate America, so he is solidly in Group 2 by fulfilling both criteria, when he only needed ro fulfill one.

Even if you do count his Worlds 2021 score, his median is still 284.23 and that is above the 272.04 threshold for Worlds Top 5.

Agree with you, any way you slice it, Vincent is firmly qualified in Group 2.

 

[Rukia]

I think we can be pretty confident that unless Vincent's foot falls off or he just really falls apart at US Nats, he's likely going to the Olympics.

 

[Karen-W]

I think we can be pretty confident that unless Vincent's foot falls off or he just really falls apart at US Nats, he's likely going to the Olympics.

Yup! Vincent's lowest score this season is still 10 points higher than every other US man's international SB except Nathan and Jason.

 

[Coco]

Digging into this document more, I found these sections interesting. I have added some bold font and italics.

To field the most competitive team, U.S. Figure Skating’s IC Discipline Subcommittees will take into consideration the performances (including objective performance data, which include segment and overall scores) from the events outlined in 1.2.1. to determine athletes/teams who will have the most performance impact at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games.

The IC Discipline Subcommittees’ primary focus to determine the 2022 U.S. Olympic Team for figure skating will be based on three qualities: competitiveness, consistency and trending scores. A brief description of these three qualities follows:

Competitiveness will be based on comparing an athlete’s/team’s scores from the events listed in 1.2.1. to benchmarks from the scores that earned placements in the Top 3, Top 5 or Top 10 at the 2021 ISU World Figure Skating Championships. Scores from the preceding ISU World Figure Skating Championships have proven to be indicators of medal potential for the upcoming Olympic Games and is therefore a key factor in determining the 2022 U.S Olympic Team.

In addition, the athlete’s/team’s best score at the international events listed in 1.2.1. will be used to separate athletes with similar scores during the identified events.

Domestic placement and scores at the 2021 and 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships will also be taken into consideration but will not be directly compared to international scores.

Consistency will be based on taking the median score whenever the athletes/teams compete at the identified international events in 1.2.1. The median score will then be compared to the benchmark scores needed to place in the Top 3, Top 5 or Top 10 at the 2021 ISU World Figure Skating Championships.

Trending scores will be based on scores achieved at the identified international events in 1.2.1. and how they escalate or deescalate through those events. The 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships will be the final score evaluated for trending scores.

...

Further discussion of each athlete’s/team’s performance at the identified events based on the criteria for competitiveness, consistency, and trending/improvement to further differentiate the athletes/teams in each of the four priority groups will be conducted.

Comparing the consistency (frequency of achieving the scores) and competitiveness (ability to score in the top 3, top 5 or top 10 at the World Championships) by analyzing scores at the identified events. o Forecasting peak performance based on season’s best score internationally at the identified international events listed in 1.2.1. for those who do not separate themselves in consistency and competitiveness.

Scores at the 2021 ISU World Figure Skating Championships, 2021 Grand Prix Final and the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships (within the top four priority groups) to further identify competitiveness at the three most important events and at the most important time of the year, immediately preceding the 2022 Olympic Winter Games.

Trending scores will be based off scores achieved at the identified events above and how they escalate or deescalate through those events.

Comparing the placements of the athletes/teams at the previous two U.S. Championships (2021 and 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships). Placements at the 2022 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating 12 Championships will have priority over placement at the 2021 Toyota U.S. Figure Skating Championships.

So at least on the 'competitiveness' quality, we can rank skaters/teams who are currently in the same group based on their highest International Score. Rankings for the consistency and trending qualities may be different. But since we love to obsess, lol.

Women

Group 3
1) Mariah Bell
2) Karen Chen

Group 4
1) Amber Glenn (ETA: thanks for catching this @Karen-W )
2) Bradie Tennell (and here is a good example of where the rankings for consistency and trending would differ)
3) Lindsay Thorngren

Pairs

Group 3

1) Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc (185.31 Worlds 2021; 170.64 CS ACI; 193.00 CS Finlandia; 189.90 SCI; 202.79 NHK)
2) Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson (195.28 Cranberry; 196.69 John Nicks; 191.89 CS Finlandia; 197.42 SkAm; 196.85 CS Warsaw; 180.49 CS Golden Spin)
3) Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov (158.81 Cranberry; 195.20 John Nicks; 190.03 NHK; 186.16 Rostelecom; 195.32 CS Golden Spin)

Pairs Group 3 is another example of where comparing teams based on consistency and trending may yield different rankings.

 

[Karen-W]

Digging into this document more, I found these sections interesting. I have added some bold font and italics.



So at least on the 'competitiveness' quality, we can rank skaters/teams who are currently in the same group based on their highest International Score. Rankings for the consistency and trending qualities may be different. But since we love to obsess, lol.

Women

Group 3
1) Mariah Bell
2) Karen Chen

Group 4
1) Amber Glenn SB 201.02 SkAM
2) Bradie Tennell (and here is a good example of where the rankings for consistency and trending would differ)
2) Lindsay Thorngren

Pairs

Group 3

1) Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc (185.31 Worlds 2021; 170.64 CS ACI; 193.00 CS Finlandia; 189.90 SCI; 202.79 NHK)
2) Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson (195.28 Cranberry; 196.69 John Nicks; 191.89 CS Finlandia; 197.42 SkAm; 196.85 CS Warsaw; 180.49 CS Golden Spin)
3) Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov (158.81 Cranberry; 195.20 John Nicks; 190.03 NHK; 186.16 Rostelecom; 195.32 CS Golden Spin)

Pairs Group 3 is another example of where comparing teams based on consistency and trending may yield different rankings.

OOOOOOO! Excellent find, @Coco!

One minor correction to your ranking for the Women - Amber's SB has her highest of the Group 4 Women. It's a bit harder, IMO, to accurately place Lindsay's JGP Ljubljana score, but I'd say she's probably correctly placed behind Bradie.

Also, for the Men, with the caveat that JGP scores are harder to accurately place:
Group 4
1) Jimmy Ma
2) Ilia Malinin

In addition, the athlete’s/team’s best score at the international events listed in 1.2.1. will be used to separate athletes with similar scores during the identified events.

This really answers the questions most of us have had regarding how the Pairs teams would be evaluated. There isn't really any scoring trend upward or downward for any of the 3 teams in Group 3 and the best international score is the only way to rank them.

I also think that this is going to be a factor in determining which Pairs team is used in the TE. If C-G/L win Nats, I think they'll get the nod for the TE because their SB is just .18 lower than K/F's (if we're looking at just GP and CS events). For all intents and purposes, that minute of a difference might as well be a tie.

 

[MacMadame]

The Selection Criteria states that "consistently scored" is based on the MEDIAN score the skater has achieved at the eligible competitions.

That is the weirdest definition of "consistently scored" ever.

 

[Karen-W]

That is the weirdest definition of "consistently scored" ever.

LOL - take it up with the USFS. The debate over this in the first few pages of this thread was something else.

 

[MacMadame]

LOL - take it up with the USFS. The debate over this in the first few pages of this thread was something else.

I guess I missed it. I was wondering why you were calculating medians all the time.

 

[Vagabond]

I think we can be pretty confident that unless Vincent's foot falls off or he just really falls apart at US Nats, he's likely going to the Olympics.

Skategods, you did not read this.

 

[Carolla5501]

So as long as K/F place top 5 at nationals they are going and the other three are tied so likely whoever places best out of the three.

No it’s whoever they like. Skating is way down the list

I think we can be pretty confident that unless Vincent's foot falls off or he just really falls apart at US Nats, he's likely going to the Olympics.

Sadly falling apart is a risk. Let’s hope not.

 

[Rukia]

Sadly falling apart is a risk. Let’s hope not.

That's why I left so many modifiers in my sentence hahaha. But I have faith in Vincent. I think he'll do enough to go.

 

[Karen-W]

No it’s whoever they like. Skating is way down the list

I must say, as someone who usually quite cynical about this stuff and especially the USFS' scoring of C-G/L in the last few seasons, you're cynicism is on a whole other level. But, I'll take your cynicism and up it by pointing out that the USFS' social media was very quick to celebrate Amber's silver on Saturday morning but took several hours to post/share anything about LuMit's gold. If we want to talk about favored and unfavored, LuMit get even less love than C-G/L.

We'll have to see how things go at Nats but C/J have really dug themselves into a hole and I'm not sure they'll be able to dig themselves out of it by Nationals. Over the course of 3 Challengers & 1 GP, they've missed the 3S (either doubled, fall or UR) in 6 out of 8 programs. The 3t-2t combo in their FS has been flubbed in some way 4 out of 4 times. They're usually fine on the throws (2 minor errors out of 12 attempts across 8 programs). They were looking really strong at Cranberry and John Nicks, but whatever started going wrong at Finlandia, they've not been able to shake it since.

 

[Karen-W]

Just bumping this up now that Nationals is almost upon us!

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds M – 289.18 W – 217.20 P – 217.63 D – 214.35	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds M – 272.04 W – 208.44 P – 201.18 D – 208.77 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds M – 245.99 W – 193.44 P – 184.41 D – 188.45 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds M – 225.55 W – 178.10 P – 157.29 D – 178.18 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Men
Group 1 - Nathan Chen (320.88 Worlds 2021; 269.37 SkAm; 307.18 SCI; GPF)
Group 2 - Vincent Zhou (70.51 Worlds 2021; 288.26 Cranberry; 284.23 CS Nebelhorn; 295.56 SkAm; 260.69 NHK; GPF)
Group 3 - Jason Brown (262.17 Worlds 2021; 262.52 CS Finlandia; 259.55 SCI; 264.20 IdF; GPF)
Group 4 -
Jimmy Ma (230.59 Cranberry; 233.58 US Classic; 228.12 SkAm; 195.09 CS Warsaw; 250.97 CS Golden Spin)
Ilia Malinin (214.64 JGP Courchevel 1; 245.35 JGP Austria; 222.55 CS Austria; JGPF)

Others with International Assignments
Tomoki Hiwatashi (205.17 Cranberry; 213.11 CS Lombardia; 221.77 SCI; 217.08 NHK)
Max Naumov (223.15 Cranberry; 207.39 US Classic) withdrawn from Nationals 12/9
Yaroslav Paniot (210.84 Cranberry)
Camden Pulkinen (179.50 Cranberry; 208.99 US Classic; 204.24 CS Finlandia; 193.18 NHK; 237.97 Rostelecom)
Eric Sjoberg (221.12 US Classic; 189.38 CS Warsaw; 212.77 CS Golden Spin)
Dinh Tran (176.72 US Classic)

Women
Group 2 - Alysa Liu (205.74 Cranberry; 219.24 CS Lombardia; 207.40 CS Nebelhorn; 206.53 SCI; 202.90 NHK)
Group 3 -
Mariah Bell (179.42 Cranberry; 190.79 IdF; 210.35 Rostelecom)
Karen Chen (208.63 Worlds 2021; 173.00 CS ACI; 202.49 CS Finlandia; 183.41 SCI; 194.00 IdF)
Group 4 -
Amber Glenn (183.46 CS Finlandia; 201.02 SkAm; 175.83 NHK; 183.36 CS Golden Spin)
Bradie Tennell (197.81 Worlds 2021) withdrawn from Nationals 12/31
Lindsay Thorngren (181.45 JGP Courchevel 1; 193.77 JGP Ljubljana; 184.40 CS Warsaw; JGPF)

Others with International Assignments
Starr Andrews (155.25 CS ACI; 177.63 SkAm; 157.35 CS Austria)
Hanna Harrell (158.89 CS Golden Spin)
Gabriella Izzo (182.76 US Classic; 155.78 CS Warsaw; 167.96 CS Golden Spin)
Audrey Shin (174.73 Cranberry; 172.46 CS Lombardia; 160.78 SkAm; 169.99 CS Austria)
Sierra Venetta (159.72 Cranberry; 177.40 US Classic)

Pairs
Group 2 - Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier (192.10 Worlds 2021; 205.87 Cranberry; 212.55 John Nicks; 202.97 SkAm; 201.69 IdF; 186.69 CS Golden Spin)
Group 3 -
Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc (185.31 Worlds 2021; 170.64 CS ACI; 193.00 CS Finlandia; 189.90 SCI; 202.79 NHK)
Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson (195.28 Cranberry; 196.69 John Nicks; 191.89 CS Finlandia; 197.42 SkAm; 196.85 CS Warsaw; 180.49 CS Golden Spin)
Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov (158.81 Cranberry; 195.20 John Nicks; 190.03 NHK; 186.16 Rostelecom; 195.32 CS Golden Spin)
Group 4 -
Emily Chan/Spencer Howe (182.44 Cranberry; 170.08 John Nicks; 163.39 CS Warsaw)
Chelsea Liu/Danny O'Shea (165.20 Cranberry; 177.45 John Nicks; 175.40 SkAm) withdrawn from Nationals 12/27
Katie McBeath/Nathan Bartholomay (157.74 Cranberry; 161.69 John Nicks; 168.61 CS ACI)
Anastasiia Smirnova/Danylo Siianytsia (145.09 Cranberry; 153.63 JGP Poland; 156.40 JGP Austria)

Others with International Assignments
Kate Finster/Matej Silecky (130.47 John Nicks)

Dance
Group 2 -
Madison Chock/Evan Bates (212.69 Worlds 2021; 208.31 CS Finlandia; 208.23 SkAm; 210.78 NHK; GPF)
Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue (214.71 Worlds 2021; 207.30 US Classic; 209.54 SkAm; 207.90 GP Italia; GPF)
Group 3 - Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker (188.51 Worlds 2021; 187.62 Rostelecom; 191.32 CS Golden Spin)
Group 4 - Caroline Green/Michael Parsons (174.98 LPIDI; 188.43 CS ACI; 186.51 SCI; 178.26 GP Italia; 187.84 CS Warsaw)

Others with International Assignments
Emily Bratti/Ian Somerville (166.83 CS Austria; 172.24 CS Golden Spin)
Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko (172.78 CS Lombardia; 178.27 CS Finlandia; 168.76 SCI; 175.91 IdF)
Molly Cesanek/Yehor Yehorov (166.12 LPIDI; 151.76 CS Lombardia; 156.97 SkAm; 166.71 CS Golden Spin)
Eva Pate/Logan Bye (159.87 LPIDI; 171.70 US Classic; 171.00 CS Warsaw)
Lorraine McNamara/Anton Spiridonov (155.12 LPIDI; 161.82 US Classic; 159.03 CS Austria)
Katarina Wolfkostin/Jeffrey Chen (165.01 JGP Courchevel 1; 163.25 JGP Ljubljana; 164.33 CS Austria, JGPF)

Bolded = Score that Qualified Skater into Group
Italics = Junior International score
Green = Cancelled International Assignment
Red = Does not have US passport
Removed skaters who 1) Lack the TES minimums, 2) Did not qualify for Nationals, or 3) are not Age-Eligible for Senior Internationals

 

[Marco]

What I want to happen:

O Men: Nathan, Vincent, Jason
W Men: Nathan, Vincent, Ilia

O Women: Alysa, Karen, Mariah
W Women: Alysa, Lindsay, Karen or Mariah but not both

 

[Coco]

I like how you think for the most part, but I'd send Amber to Worlds together with Lindsay and Alysa.

 

[misskarne]

O Men: Nathan, Vincent, Jason
W Men: Nathan, Vincent, Ilia

Does Ilia have Senior Worlds minimums? I thought he missed one at his botched CS event?

I see no reason to leave Jason off the Worlds team if he wants to go.

 

[Karen-W]

Does Ilia have Senior Worlds minimums? I thought he missed one at his botched CS event?

I see no reason to leave Jason off the Worlds team if he wants to go.

He has the Olympic/4CCs TES mins and the Worlds FS mins. If Ilia finishes high enough to be considered for a Worlds assignment then he'll surely be sent to 4CCs and, I would guess, manage to get the Worlds SP in (which he missed by less than .25 points IIRC).

And, of course you wouldn't see any reason to leave Jason off the Worlds team if he wants to go. But, I'm sure, should Ilia beat Jason at Nationals and be left off the Olympic team in favor of Jason, you'd respect the selection committee's decision to give Ilia the Worlds assignment, right?

 

[misskarne]

And, of course you wouldn't see any reason to leave Jason off the Worlds team if he wants to go. But, I'm sure, should Ilia beat Jason at Nationals and be left off the Olympic team in favor of Jason, you'd respect the selection committee's decision to give Ilia the Worlds assignment, right?

In the unlikely event that the untried, untested Junior beats Jason at Nationals, then sure, Ilia could be sent to Worlds.

And in that case, then perhaps it should be Vincent who's left off the team, given his post-Olympic-Worlds track record is less than stellar and the US men still need three spots for next year. His pre-Olympic-Worlds track record isn't great either, come to think of it. And then you could have a Worlds team of Nathan, Jason and Ilia.

I know you so desperately want Jason to go away already, but he's not going away.

 

[Karen-W]

In the unlikely event that the untried, untested Junior beats Jason at Nationals, then sure, Ilia could be sent to Worlds.

And in that case, then perhaps it should be Vincent who's left off the team, given his post-Olympic-Worlds track record is less than stellar and the US men still need three spots for next year. His pre-Olympic-Worlds track record isn't great either, come to think of it. And then you could have a Worlds team of Nathan, Jason and Ilia.

I know you so desperately want Jason to go away already, but he's not going away.

I'm not even the person who said I wanted Ilia on the Worlds team! I'd rather his winter/spring assignments be Olympics/Jr Worlds not 4CCs/Worlds.

But, really, I don't expect Nathan to be at Worlds this year, so my guess for the Worlds team will be Vincent, Jason and either Jimmy or Ilia (not sure which guy yet). Btw, Vincent's Worlds track record includes a bronze medal. What's Jason's highest placement again?

 

[Frau Muller]

…. Btw, Vincent's Worlds track record includes a bronze medal. What's Jason's highest placement again?

Oooooo, them’s fightin’ words.

 

[kwanfan1818]

4th. And never less than 9th.

 

[Dobre]

I think we'll be fortunate if two of the guys on the Olympic team wish to go to Worlds.

 

[PRlady]

All the top skaters have had to change training peaks this year, as when GPF was canceled. I’m sure we are not done with surprises, skating or crud related.

 

[Impromptu]

4th. And never less than 9th.

Got me curious to see what Jason Brown's worst competition ever was, because I thought it might have been his first Senior Nationals in 2011 where he fell in the footwork, but no, he was ninth then too. You're right... across 63 competitions over 12 years (I didn't count below novice but aside from his first year in Juvenile in 2005 when he didn't get out of qualifying, he finished in the top 3 every year after that), he's never finished lower than 9th.

That doesn't make him the most consistent, though because Nathan Chen has never finished lower than 8th.

 

[Aceon6]

I would expect USFS to strongly encourage the top 6 with minimums in ALL disciplines to train as if they are going to the Os and Worlds, and to take extreme crud precautions.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Got me curious to see what Jason Brown's worst competition ever was, because I thought it might have been his first Senior Nationals in 2011 where he fell in the footwork, but no, he was ninth then too. You're right... across 63 competitions over 12 years (I didn't count below novice but aside from his first year in Juvenile in 2005 when he didn't get out of qualifying, he finished in the top 3 every year after that), he's never finished lower than 9th.

That doesn't make him the most consistent, though because Nathan Chen has never finished lower than 8th.

I was responding to a post that was discussing Worlds placements, but thank you for researching the rest of his history.

Brown has been quite consistent when healthy. Nathan Chen is in a different competitive stratosphere, even when he doesn't compete with prime readiness.

 

[Vagabond]

Just bumping this up now that Nationals is almost upon us!

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds M – 289.18 W – 217.20 P – 217.63 D – 214.35	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds M – 272.04 W – 208.44 P – 201.18 D – 208.77 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds M – 245.99 W – 193.44 P – 184.41 D – 188.45 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds M – 225.55 W – 178.10 P – 157.29 D – 178.18 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

I have put some of the "AND's" and "OR's" in red.

It looks like Liu, Knierim/Frazier, and, if he misses the competition, will all end up in Tier 3 and have good chances of being sent to the Olympics if they are healthy in time.

 

[Karen-W]

I have put some of the "AND's" and "OR's" in red.

It looks like Liu, Knierim/Frazier, and, if he misses the competition, will all end up in Tier 3 and have good chances of being sent to the Olympics if they are healthy in time.

As @stjeaskategym pointed out in another thread discussing K/F's withdrawal earlier this week, the actual wording of the document says Top 3/Top 5 OR successfully petition AND Int'l Scores. So, Liu, like K/F will remain in Group 2 for selection if the USFS accepts the petition.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

As @stjeaskategym pointed out in another thread discussing K/F's withdrawal earlier this week, the actual wording of the document says Top 3/Top 5 OR successfully petition AND Int'l Scores. So, Liu, like K/F will remain in Group 2 for selection if the USFS accepts the petition.

The OR successful petition thing is so dumb. If they have a successful petition, they're on the team so what does it matter WHAT group they're in at that point. I feel like USFSA doesn't think before they word things. Who cares what group anyone is in once the team is named.

"Once we accept your petition, that puts you in group 2 so that validates our decision to select you."

 

[gkelly]

Unless they're considering it a successful petition to be considered along with the rest of the eligible candidates, as opposed to a successful petition to be named to the team.