USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[Sylvia]

U.S. FIGURE SKATING
ATHLETE SELECTION PROCEDURES
2022 OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES (amended July 20, 2021) - 35 page document:

https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/2022%20Winter%20Olympic%20Games%20Selection%20Procedures%20FINAL.pdf

 

[Tahuu]

Key selection criteria:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds OR consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds

* Note: 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES must be from:

2021 Stockholm Worlds (done)
2021 GPs
2021 GPF
2021 Challengers
2021 JGP
2021 JGPF
2021 Other identified ISU events (not clear)

2021 Worlds results: http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2021/wc2021/

 

[Karen-W]

[email protected] everyone who thinks that Jason's spot is assured. This is going to be really interesting. Vincent scored 288.26 at Cranberry Cup, which is less than a point under what Yuzu scored at Worlds to finish 3rd, and well ahead of the 272 that Kolyada scored to finish 5th in Stockholm. He's had consistency issues but all he needs is a solid, focused fall season where he's scoring in the 290 range and he's on the team with Nathan.

There are US men who are capable of slotting into that Group 2 category ahead of Jason and the way this is set up doesn't necessarily favor a quad-less Jason unless he finishes 3rd.

It's going to be even messier on the women's side. Alysa's Cranberry Cup score is about 11.5 points lower than Trusova's bronze-winning score from Worlds and 3 points lower than the 208.xx that Chen and Hendrickx scored to finish 4th & 5th.
.
Pairs - K/F scored higher at Cranberry than Peng/Jin did to finish 5th at Worlds. We'll see what C-G/L are capable of. C/J's Cranberry Cup score was about equal to M-T/M's 6th place score so they have their work cut out for them.

Dance - H/D and C/B are as much of locks for the team as Nathan is on the Men's side.

 

[Tahuu]

[email protected] everyone who thinks that Jason's spot is assured. This is going to be really interesting. Vincent scored 288.26 at Cranberry Cup, which is less than a point under what Yuzu scored at Worlds to finish 3rd, and well ahead of the 272 that Kolyada scored to finish 5th in Stockholm. He's had consistency issues but all he needs is a solid, focused fall season where he's scoring in the 290 range and he's on the team with Nathan.

There are US men who are capable of slotting into that Group 2 category ahead of Jason and the way this is set up doesn't necessarily favor a quad-less Jason unless he finishes 3rd.

It's going to be even messier on the women's side. Alysa's Cranberry Cup score is about 11.5 points lower than Trusova's bronze-winning score from Worlds and 3 points lower than the 208.xx that Chen and Hendrickx scored to finish 4th & 5th.
.
Pairs - K/F scored higher at Cranberry than Peng/Jin did to finish 5th at Worlds. We'll see what C-G/L are capable of. C/J's Cranberry Cup score was about equal to M-T/M's 6th place score so they have their work cut out for them.

Dance - H/D and C/B are as much of locks for the team as Nathan is on the Men's side.

Not sure if scores from Cranberry would count. Is it not an ISU comp?

 

[Karen-W]

Not sure if scores from Cranberry would count. Is it not an ISU comp?

Well, it was ISU sanctioned and the scores count toward TES minimums so I would hazard a guess that it, as well as the US Classic, LPIDI, and the John Nicks Pairs Challenge, will count under the "2021 Other Identified ISU events" because they meet the ISU's international events criteria.

 

[misskarne]

[email protected] everyone who thinks that Jason's spot is assured. This is going to be really interesting. Vincent scored 288.26 at Cranberry Cup, which is less than a point under what Yuzu scored at Worlds to finish 3rd, and well ahead of the 272 that Kolyada scored to finish 5th in Stockholm. He's had consistency issues but all he needs is a solid, focused fall season where he's scoring in the 290 range and he's on the team with Nathan.

Anyone with two brain cells to rub together should think that Jason's spot is more assured than that of the person who is the sole, 100% reason the US doesn't have 3 spots yet. I would like to think that some in the selection room will remember that.

 

[Karen-W]

Anyone with two brain cells to rub together should think that Jason's spot is more assured than that of the person who is the sole, 100% reason the US doesn't have 3 spots yet. I would like to think that some in the selection room will remember that.

Well, just reading the criteria, Jason is in currently in Group 4 and Vincent is in Group 3. Vincent scored less than a point off of Yuzu's 3rd place Worlds score at Cranberry. I think it is far more likely that Vincent will join Nathan in Group 1 by Nationals than Jason. I'm not even convinced Jason can score high enough to climb into Group 2. I guess we'll see but I would hope the selection committee follows their stated criteria instead of throwing a bone to Jason for his outstanding 7th place finish that, apparently, was far more instrumental to the US men having a chance at 3 spots than Nathan's 3rd consecutive World title.

 

[jlai]

I am fine with the criteria but I hope Cransberry cup doesn’t count. Oh well

 

[Frau Muller]

Anyone with two brain cells to rub together should think that Jason's spot is more assured than that of the person who is the sole, 100% reason the US doesn't have 3 spots yet. I would like to think that some in the selection room will remember

Agreed...BUT Vincent will soon have the chance to be the lone 100% reason why the US will have three spots. What a turn-around that will be! So all fans, including we Jason fans, will be praying for Vincent to succeed, will we not? And the selectors will remember.

 

[misskarne]

Agreed...BUT Vincent will soon have the chance to be the lone 100% reason why the US will have three spots.

Zhou can never be the lone reason why the US men have three spots. Jason and Nathan did their jobs at 2021 Worlds ably. Under the old rules, Zhou would have been embarrassed about Worlds and no more, his bacon saved by Nathan and a veteran again, as it was once before. But this is not the old rules.

Theoretically, Zhou shouldn't have any problem making sure that Nathan and Jason's work at 2021 Worlds didn't go to waste. But he also shouldn't have had any problem making the free skate at Worlds, either.

 

[AYS]

This is too much for my old brain. As a fan, I will simply root for Jason to skate well this season and at nationals and make the team.

(That said, I think there is plenty of wiggle room in this document to allow the committee to make their own calls in close situations).

This little paragraph, for example. The bolded part is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

To field the most competitive team, U.S. Figure Skating’s IC Discipline Subcommittees will take into consideration the performances (including objective performance data, which include segment and overall scores) from the events outlined in 1.2.1. to determine athletes/teams who will have the most performance impact at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games.

 

[Tavi]

I don’t think there’s enough information out there to rank any of the US men except Nathan into groups yet, because none of them have performed “consistently” at the listed 2021 competitions.

At this point, we don’t even know if all the 2021 competitions will take place. If they don’t, it looks like they will at least consider including 2020 results. But assuming that’s not necessary, if you look at results from the 1-2 competitions Jason and the up and comers have participated in so far (Nats/Worlds 2021 for Jason, JGP 1 for Malinin, and 2021 Nats/Cranberry Cup for Paniot, Hiwatashi, Naumov, Ma), Jason’s scores of 276, 262 -while somewhat lower than his international PB/2020 scores - are higher by far than scores for the others. Malinin won his JGP with a score of 214. Ma, Hiwatashi, and Naumov all scored between 205-244 at Cranberry Cup and Nats. While Paniot did score 266 at Nats, he only scored 210 at Cranberry Cup. So while Jason is absolutely not assured a spot, he’s currently in a stronger position than the up and comers. And yes, this could change.

By the way, I haven’t heard anyone say that Jason was more responsible than Nathan for retaining 3 Worlds spots and giving the US a chance to qualify a third Olympic spot. But Nathan’s score alone wouldn’t be sufficient if Jason had not placed where he did. If Vincent does succeed in qualifying the third spot, it will have been a team effort: he wouldn’t have had the opportunity to skate at Nebelhorn but for the combined efforts of Nathan and Jason.

 

[Dai's Blues for Klook]

As a fan, I will simply root for Jason to skate well this season and at nationals and make the team.

Yes let the best man (Jason) win!

 

[wickedwitch]

I think Women might be the most interesting, because it's likely that no US woman will be consistently getting 217+, thus making group 1 an impossibility. It's even possible that nobody will qualify in group 2 either. Similarly with pairs, I will be surprised if anyone is in group 1.

IMO, this criteria looks reasonable. I would have had group 1.5 (top 5 at US Nats, and consistently scoring at top 3 in Worlds level), but it's unlikely to have applied to anyone.

 

[Tahuu]

I can see Vincent be in Group 2 and potentially jump into Group 1, and Jason easily in Group 3 but have some difficulty get in Group 2. Will anyone else be able to get into Group 2 and 3 after all said and done? There’s no wiggle room if you are in different groups.

 

[Coco]

@Tahuu thanks for all your posts and your L4 formatting

Should the first row be 2022 nationals criteria?

 

[sundayspirals]

I can see Vincent be in Group 2 and potentially jump into Group 1, and Jason easily in Group 3 but have some difficulty get in Group 2. Will anyone else be able to get into Group 2 and 3 after all said and done? There’s no wiggle room if you are in different groups.

Agree. There are probably only 2 (potentially 3) of the current top men in the world that would jump into group 1. Nathan is obviously one of them. It just goes to show how incredible Nathan's consistency has been.. but also how risky those multi quad programs are. The rewards can be great but the risk of leaving a lot of points on the table is equally high.

ETA: I guess that's why I find a consistent quad-less Jason appealing. It just somehow feels less risky... or maybe I'm just too concerned lol.

 

[her grace]

I don’t think Cranberry will count because the time frame for selected international competitions begins in September.

 

[Tahuu]

@Tahuu thanks for all your posts and your L4 formatting

Should the first row be 2022 nationals criteria?

You are right. It’s 2022 Nationals in January.

 

[Coco]

I feel like there is an unwritten rule that when a singles or pairs discipline has 3 spots, the 3rd spot goes to the up and comer with the most potential. This would be someone who is expected to be on multiple future Worlds teams and hopefully the next Olympics.

In light of that, if Zhou gets consistent, Jason is going to have to make a really strong case for himself.

On the Ladies side, assuming Chen and Liu stay on track it will be very tough for someone like Bell or Glenn or anyone else who has had an up and down trajectory as a senior to make a case for themselves vs. Thorngren. I think if Tennell can get back to her 2021 level, she should be ok, but Nationals will be incredibly important.

 

[wickedwitch]

I should note that this pretty servely punishes JGP skaters. They have one less element, men aren't allowed to do quads in the SP, and overall GoEs/PCS are lower even when everything else is the same.

 

[Karen-W]

I should note that this pretty servely punishes JGP skaters. They have one less element, men aren't allowed to do quads in the SP, and overall GoEs/PCS are lower even when everything else is the same.

I agree. On the other hand, the way the criteria reads, the scoring levels are "and/or" except for Group 1. So, all it would necessarily take is one outstanding senior B for some of these super-talented JGPers and they could find themselves in Group 3 or possibly Group 2.

 

[Coco]

Regarding JGP competitors, there is this clause that could be read in their favor:

To field the most competitive team, U.S. Figure Skating’s IC Discipline Subcommittees will take into consideration the performances (including objective performance data, which include segment and overall scores) from the events outlined in 1.2.1. to determine athletes/teams who will have the most performance impact at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games.

So if it's close, a junior who has a high % of elements with + GOE or high base value per jumping element, etc., will be 'held in good stead' to reference a certain Dick Button.

 

[sheetz]

The most likely way a junior would make group 3 is by finishing in the top 3 at Nationals. It's extremely unlikely a junior skater could make group 2; if they were that good they'd probably already be in seniors.

 

[nylynnr]

Why is this discussion centered on Zhou vs Brown for an Olympic spot? Assuming Zhou finishes in top 6 or 7 at Nebelhorn, there will be 3 spots and Chen, Zhou and Brown -- barring injury -- can all go to Beijing.

 

[VGThuy]

Why is this discussion centered on Zhou vs Brown for an Olympic spot? Assuming Zhou finishes in top 6 or 7 at Nebelhorn, there will be 3 spots and Chen, Zhou and Brown -- barring injury -- can all go to Beijing.

I think some are assuming one of the younger guys will become the next Nathan Chen in consistency and difficulty and leap frog over them in not only base value but in GOE and PCS as well. I'm not sure where that's coming from, but it's there. I actually do see an opening as we saw at last year's Nationals, but it will require less-than-stellar skates from both Brown and Zhou.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove]

everyone who thinks that Jason's spot is assured. This is going to be really interesting. Vincent scored 288.26 at Cranberry Cup, which is less than a point under what Yuzu scored at Worlds to finish 3rd, and well ahead of the 272 that Kolyada scored to finish 5th in Stockholm. He's had consistency issues but all he needs is a solid, focused fall season where he's scoring in the 290 range and he's on the team with Nathan.

Oh my gosh I'm so tired how is everyone?

Jasons PCS and artistry is always 100% consistent, we don't have to worry about his PCS taking a hit so that's why I have him on the Olympic team versus any of the newbies. His body of work will be absolutely considered when placing him on the team

It is 100% extremely reliable that's a team of Nathan, Jason and a Vincent we saw at cranberry will all place in the top 10 at the Olympics if you ask me with two of them even possible on the podium

 

[VGThuy]

Oh my gosh I'm so tired how is everyone?

Jasons PCS and artistry is always 100% consistent, we don't have to worry about his PCS taking a hit so that's why I have him on the Olympic team versus any of the newbies. His body of work will be absolutely considered when placing him on the team

It is 100% extremely reliable that's a team of Nathan, Jason and a Vincent we saw at cranberry will all place in the top 10 at the Olympics if you ask me with two of them even possible on the podium

I agree with this take. If all three skate well, it’ll be a real treat to watch.

 

[ChelleC]

I feel like there is an unwritten rule that when a singles or pairs discipline has 3 spots, the 3rd spot goes to the up and comer with the most potential. This would be someone who is expected to be on multiple future Worlds teams and hopefully the next Olympics.

There's the team event to take into consideration. The Men's event is the first event after the team event. Imo, the Team Gold is between the US and Russia. If I were the one planning how to do the team event, I'd have the third US man do the free skate in the team event, especially if the team is Chen, Zhou, and Brown.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

It's kind of amusing to me that everyone is talking about who is a lock for the 2022 Olympic team and who has no chance due to "body of work" when the bulk of the body of work that is counted has yet to happen. The only event that has happened that counts is 2021 worlds. There is still time for someone to make a case or fail to do so.