USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[Andrea82]

The 2021 Other identified ISU events is actually crystal clear in the USFS document. They link to ISU Comm 1629 (World Standings and Season's World Ranking) and if you scroll down to Section C it defines what are "other identified ISU events" in points 1.4 and 1.5:

It seems pretty clear to me that both Cranberry Cup and LPIDI fall under the "other identified ISU events" category and US Classic will as well, same with the John Nicks Pairs Challenge.

I think the issue is with the "assigned by the International Committee (IC Discipline Subcommittees)" part coming after "ISU International Events" in the document.

Cranberry Cup, LPIDI and John Nicks qualify as ISU International Events and they also meet the requirements of Communication 1629.
However, I don't know if the participation of US skaters to them goes through the USFSA International Committee process.
I wonder about this because none of them appear on USFSA International Assignments page while US Classic appears.

 

[Debbie S]

USFS ranks the skaters for the team event based on BOW, like everything else - ultimately, it's their discretion. In 2018, Adam was ranked #2 even though he finished behind Vincent at Nats and the Shibs were ranked #1 despite finishing 2nd to H/D. If USFS wants, for example, Jason in the team event over Vincent, they'll rank Jason 2nd. It's not going to be a case of skater #3 being selected over skater #2 (unless someone is injured or other unforeseen circumstance) b/c the preferred skater will already be ranked where USFS wants them.

I read the disclaimer about overriding the preference forms as either assigning a skater/team a different segment than they requested or overriding their choice to split/not split. But with the men, I doubt they would force Nathan to skate both programs.

 

[Tavi]

There's never a point to argue about assigning a skater to one segment or another. That's as clear as the blue sky. From the beginning, it was about the possibility of assigning Jason to the team event over Vincent, if Nathan, Vincent, Jason were ranked as such. If we misunderstood the point of contention, then let's end it there.

Actually, I just made a general statement and to clarify, referenced specific language in the document, without mentioning names. As a reminder, the season hasn’t really started yet and neither Vincent nor Jason have been named to the team.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

LOL@ everyone who thinks that Jason's spot is assured. This is going to be really interesting. Vincent scored 288.26 at Cranberry Cup, which is less than a point under what Yuzu scored at Worlds to finish 3rd, and well ahead of the 272 that Kolyada scored to finish 5th in Stockholm. He's had consistency issues but all he needs is a solid, focused fall season where he's scoring in the 290 range and he's on the team with Nathan.

Nationals is going to be heartbreaking for quite a handful of contenders in men, ladies, pairs, and dance.

 

[LeafOnTheWind]

That makes it easier for me to enjoy the whole competition because I come in prepared to be both disappointed and happy. The placements happen where they happen.

 

[yeslek]

Currently it's Team, Men, Dance, Women, Pairs.

I would love it if the USFS took the Team Event seriously this year since there is an outside shot at gold for the USA.

If Vincent has a solid fall and is showing that he can consistently score as well as Yuma, Yuzu, and Shoma in the FS, he will get the FS nod over Nathan in order to give Nathan a breather between the two events. The US needs every point it can get in both Men and Dance to offset the lead that Russia will have in Women and Pairs for the Team event. And, with Men and Dance being the first two events after the Team Event, if we have a 1-2 punch of Nathan & Vincent and H/D & C/B that prove they are going to finish 1st, no worse than 2nd, in whichever segment you put them in, then we will see the Women and Pairs as the ones who aren't substituted out, especially if Alysa is scoring consistently as high as any of the Japanese women. Pairs, the US is, realistically, going to finish no higher than 3rd in either segment unless China fails to make the FS portion.

Yes as of now I would have Alyssa and K/F do both. Alyssa would have a long time between events if they are in the same order as last time. It would kind of suck for K/F since the turnaround is tight but since they have a lower chance of individual medal (at this Olympics - I hope they continue!!) I think the benefits outweigh the cons.

 

[yeslek]

Nationals is going to be heartbreaking for quite a handful of contenders in men, ladies, pairs, and dance.

In dance? The team is pretty much all but set barring disaster.

 

[Tahuu]

USFS ranks the skaters for the team event based on BOW, like everything else - ultimately, it's their discretion. In 2018, Adam was ranked #2 even though he finished behind Vincent at Nats and the Shibs were ranked #1 despite finishing 2nd to H/D. If USFS wants, for example, Jason in the team event over Vincent, they'll rank Jason 2nd. It's not going to be a case of skater #3 being selected over skater #2 (unless someone is injured or other unforeseen circumstance) b/c the preferred skater will already be ranked where USFS wants them.

I read the disclaimer about overriding the preference forms as either assigning a skater/team a different segment than they requested or overriding their choice to split/not split. But with the men, I doubt they would force Nathan to skate both programs.

No, USFS doesn’t act as a dictator. It has to follow the selection criteria.

In 2017, Adam was ranked over Vincent because Adam’s international score was 258.16, over Vincent’s 242.96. Plus Adam qualified to the GPF and Vincent didn’t.

Ultimately the athletes control their own fate.

 

[yeslek]

Great post overall and I agree with the strategy. I just don’t agree that it applied to ice dance in 2018. The Shibs consistently beat the other American ice dance teams in the SD going into Pyeongchang and only lost the SD to them at 2017 Worlds in a somewhat surprise result but the rest of the time, the Shibs came on top. Maybe one could make an argument for the FD since the Shibs uncharacteristically made major mistakes in the GPF and then Nationals there, but a solid skate from them throughout the season had them beating every team H/D would have beaten and what happened in the team event and individual, the Shibs placed behind V/M and then V/M and P/C and comfortably ahead of the rest overall as they had since 2016 4CC.

Honestly though C/B we’re consistently beating H/D in the free dance (not in the Olympics due to the fall but before then) It was an odd situation where H/D got 2nd in both but won.

 

[yeslek]

No, USFS doesn’t act as a dictator. It has to follow the selection criteria.

In 2017, Adam was ranked over Vincent because Adam’s international score was 258.16, over Vincent’s 242.96. Plus Adam qualified to the GPF and Vincent didn’t.

I agree. I honestly think Adam was already on the team based on body of work and the decision was more between Vincent and Ross.

 

[Sylvia]

I agree. I honestly think Adam was already on the team based on body of work and the decision was more between Vincent and Ross.

More likely between Vincent & Jason since the latter was named first alternate.

 

[yeslek]

More likely between Vincent & Jason since the latter was named first alternate.

Yes I forgot! I agree with this too! Jason did also go to the final that year! I remember people’s outrage at Jason being the first alternate and disagreeing with them.

 

[Karen-W]

Yes as of now I would have Alyssa and K/F do both. Alyssa would have a long time between events if they are in the same order as last time. It would kind of suck for K/F since the turnaround is tight but since they have a lower chance of individual medal (at this Olympics - I hope they continue!!) I think the benefits outweigh the cons.

Pairs is the last event in Beijing. Order is Team, Men, Dance, Women, Pairs because China wants to put its premier discipline as the final event. So, having the Women and Pairs skate both segmentsof the TE is the least impactful to their individual events which will start 9-12 days after the TE ends.

 

[yeslek]

Pairs is the last event in Beijing. Order is Team, Men, Dance, Women, Pairs because China wants to put its premier discipline as the final event. So, having the Women and Pairs skate both segmentsof the TE is the least impactful to their individual events which will start 9-12 days after the TE ends.

Oh perfect then! I think that makes sense since pairs is so physically demanding and how many countries will be using the same pair team for individual and team since there are less teams around the world than individual skaters.

 

[Debbie S]

No, USFS doesn’t act as a dictator. It has to follow the selection criteria.

I didn't say USFS was a dictator, I said ranking was based on BOW. (But that's not always clear-cut, given previous decisions and our debates on here.) Whoever they believe are the strongest skaters based on their record will be in the position to be selected for the team event. I'm not even sure the #3 is listed as an alternate, based on the ISU rules.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

In dance? The team is pretty much all but set barring disaster.

Yes. It must be so difficult being the 4th, 5th and 6th place teams in dance, knowing that your destiny next year will be a trip to Four Continents.

 

[Karen-W]

Yes. It must be so difficult being the 4th, 5th and 6th place teams in dance, knowing that your destiny next year will be a trip to Four Continents.

Perhaps it is disappointing to not make the Olympic team but getting the 4CCs assignment in an Olympics year gives those skaters/teams valuable WS points and, even if they don't find themselves at Worlds in March as alternates called up, it helps set them up for next season. There are worse destinies in the world of figure skating. Imagine being the 4th, 5th or 6th place finishers at Russian Nats, knowing you're not likely to get any ISU Championship points to help you going into next season.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Perhaps it is disappointing to not make the Olympic team but getting the 4CCs assignment in an Olympics year gives those skaters/teams valuable WS points and, even if they don't find themselves at Worlds in March as alternates called up, it helps set them up for next season. There are worse destinies in the world of figure skating. Imagine being the 4th, 5th or 6th place finishers at Russian Nats, knowing you're not likely to get any ISU Championship points to help you going into next season.

A very good point. Thank you for posting.

It must be so frustrating for skaters being in competitive countries like Russia, Japan, USA, South Korea, and Canada, where there is so much depth.

Great for fans who attend events, but the pressure of having to skate your absolute best with even a chance of making a World or Olympic team would be so intense.

 

[Karen-W]

I would just like to point out that Alysa Liu has officially made it to Group 2 status with her Lombardia Trophy score today.

 

[sheetz]

I see no reason why Alysa should not do both the SP and FS for the Team Event.

 

[Coco]

I sincerely hope they can use a sub in Dance, because I would love to see both C/B and H/D get Olympic medals.

 

[Karen-W]

I sincerely hope they can use a sub in Dance, because I would love to see both C/B and H/D get Olympic medals.

Well, they can. It's a matter of whether or not they will. And some of that, I'm sure, is going to be determined by how each team is doing relative to the rest of the dance field this season. If we have a clear situation where one team is beating the field in the RD and the other is beating the other teams in the FD then I expect that USFS will consult with both teams and ask them to state that as their preference. Or, just tell them that's what's happening, lol. Either way, I would very much like to see both teams get Olympic medals.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I would just like to point out that Alysa Liu has officially made it to Group 2 status with her Lombardia Trophy score today.

Group two only? Whatever group one is I have her in that with the Russians

 

[Karen-W]

Group two only? Whatever group one is I have her in that with the Russians

Group 1 is consistently scoring equal to Top 3 at Worlds. She's only managed one score equal to Top 3 from 2021 Worlds. She might very well be in Group 1 by the end of the season but not quite yet.

 

[Panja]

Alysa had a great skate at Lombardia. Personally, I don't really care about the 3A (which she underrotated but landed) and I'm not really a follower of women's skating. But the joy she showed was so wonderful. That's what it's all about.

 

[once_upon]

Since USFS is very unlikely to pay heed to my opinion, I'll just enjoy the upcoming season.

I would like to see a Nathan, Vincent and Jason team. I suspect the USFS might say that Jason did have the Olympic experience if an up and coming man places above him at Nationals. Or place an up and coming man if Vincent totally bombs and places below 5th at Nationals.

But I've never been a good guesser. And USFS doesn't have my phone number on speed dial.

 

[sheetz]

I would just like to point out that Alysa Liu has officially made it to Group 2 status with her Lombardia Trophy score today.

That kind of surprised me until I remembered that World's ladies was a splatfest this year. Alysa's score would have only ranked 6th in 2019.

 

[Tahuu]

Looking at Russian women’s scoring potential, I don’t think Alysa could break in top 5 in the world this season. But that doesn’t matter as the 2021 Worlds are benchmark for selecting US women to the Olympics.

 

[Frau Muller]

Looking at Russian women’s scoring potential, I don’t think Alysa could break in top 5 in the world this season. But that doesn’t matter as the 2021 Worlds are benchmark for selecting US women to the Olympics.

Absolutely realistic. I’m hoping that Alysa makes the final flight at the Olympics, then finishes in top 6. Podium would be pie-in-the-sky. A realistic 6th or even 5th-Place in Beijing would be an improvement over US ladies’ finish in 2018.

I’d love to see this final flight at Olympics:

Kaori
Rika
Alysa
Three Russians (whoever they may be)

 

[Marco]

Key selection criteria:

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds OR consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds

* Note: 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES must be from:

2021 Stockholm Worlds (done)
2021 GPs
2021 GPF
2021 Challengers
2021 JGP
2021 JGPF
2021 Other identified ISU events (not clear)

2021 Worlds results: http://www.isuresults.com/results/season2021/wc2021/

Alysa scored 219.24 at Lompardia and 207.4 at Nebelhorn. In comparison, 2021 Worlds 3rd place Sasha scored 217.2 and 5th place Loena scored 208.44. I'd say Alysa has safely met the 2nd criterion for Group 2.

Vincent scored 288.28 at Cranberry and 284.23 at Nebelhorn. In comparison, 2021 Worlds 3rd place Yuzuru scored 289.18 and 5th place Mikhail scored 272.04. I'd say Vincent has safely met the 2nd criterion for Group 1.