USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[AYS]

Sorry but there are a couple inaccuracies here. Belbin/Agosto did not have an abbreviated career. They won silver in 2006 and were fourth in 2010 (and IMO, should have been third). And won 4 World medals.

And on the US senior podium for about a decade (5-time champions). The opposite of abbreviated.

 

[missing]

I didn't realize Hawayek/Baker had the same international and national success as Jason Brown. Like the number of times they were national champions, were higher than being US#3, the number of GP medals they've earned in International fields, the number of 4C's medals they've earned in a non-Olympic year, their highest finishes at Worlds, the differential between their international PB's the next-in-lines, the number of times their results have been counted to earn three spots at the next Worlds/Olympics, and the number of GPF appearances.

Yeah, the same thing.

I didn't realize Hawayek/Baker were skating in men's or is Jason Brown skating in dance?

The point I had made, for those who need to have points made explained to them, is that there is potentially a vacant third slot in both dance and men's on the US Olympic figure skating team. Neither the third dance team nor the third man is likely to skate in the team event and neither the third dance team nor the third man is likely to medal in what are very strong fields internationally.

Does internationally have too many syllables? Or is three too high for you to count?

 

[missing]

And on the US senior podium for about a decade (5-time champions). The opposite of abbreviated.

I was wrong when I said Belbin/Agosto had an abbreviated career at the Olympics (because of Tanith's citizenship issues). I had forgotten about their second Olympics where they did not medal.

But I never said they had an abbreviated Nationals career. My post was specifically about American skaters competing at the Olympics, focusing on whether there was a benefit to competing at a second Olympics.

I made a mistake about the number of Olympics which Belbin and Agosto competed at. I will blame it on faulty memory and on trying to cram too much in between today's competitive events (pairs and women's, I think). I appreciate that Karen-W corrected it and I thanked her for doing so.

You'll have to come up with your own excuse (take two, they're small) on reading a post about Olympic competitions and assuming it was referring to Nationals.

 

[yeslek]

Jason has the international scores, if he does not do well one time, USFSF will have all the other scores and results to justify sending him to the Olympics. Plenty of reason. Even if another skater reaches group 3, Jason will still be the highest in that particular group based on consistency and several good scores and results starting with Worlds 2021.
This is not 2017-2018, it's 2021-2022, Jason's consistency will not all of a sudden evaporate and he can manage decent scores with more than one mistake.
It's okay to take into account Jason failing at Nationals, but when you take into account the possibility of Nathan having a skate like that at Skate America and probably mathematically being over scored (very unlikely), all of a sudden it's all giggles.

Yeah I mean I think all three US tickets are all but purchased.

 

[Trillian]

And the Women are especially complicated by the presence of Levito potentially taking a spot in the Top 3 or 5 at Nats.

I don’t think the women will end up being that complicated because I expect them to take the top three age-eligible skaters from nationals, one of whom will almost definitely be Alysa Liu. (And I also suspect whoever gets the third spot might be saying a quiet prayer of thanks that Isabeau Levito is only 14.) Unless a skater sneaks in who’s completely off the radar, so far it’s a group of skaters with decent but pretty spotty international results. There’s only so much math it makes sense to do with the numbers they’ve posted so far.

Pairs and dance are also likely to follow nationals results as long as we don’t have any surprise medalists, since we have a few teams who are all packed pretty tightly together in terms of international results. The most suspenseful scenario I can imagine is if K/F are 3rd.

 

[Karen-W]

I don’t think the women will end up being that complicated because I expect them to take the top three age-eligible skaters from nationals, one of whom will almost definitely be Alysa Liu. (And I also suspect whoever gets the third spot might be saying a quiet prayer of thanks that Isabeau Levito is only 14.) Unless a skater sneaks in who’s completely off the radar, so far it’s a group of skaters with decent but pretty spotty international results. There’s only so much math it makes sense to do with the numbers they’ve posted so far.

Pairs and dance are also likely to follow nationals results as long as we don’t have any surprise medalists, since we have a few teams who are all packed pretty tightly together in terms of international results. The most suspenseful scenario I can imagine is if K/F are 3rd.

Women could become complicated if Levito finishes Top 3...

Let's say the results are something like this:

1) Liu
2) Levito
3) Andrews
4) Thorngren
5) Bell
6) Chen

Group 2 - Liu (Int'l Scores & Top 3 @Nats)
Group 3 - Let's say that
Chen (Int'l Scores)
Bell (Int'l Scores)
Thorngren (Int'l Scores)
Andrews (Top 3 @Nats)

So, take Levito out of the mix and you have Thorngren on the team by virtue of her Int'l Scores as well as Top 3 of the Age-Eligible women. But who gets the 3rd spot? Bell's SB is 33 points higher than Andrews, who didn't even make it into Group 4 for Int'l Scores. This would be, 100% a do-over/repeat of the Miner 2018 situation. In that scenario, I'd bet that Bell makes the team but would the Selection Committee really do that?

 

[Trillian]

So, take Levito out of the mix and you have Thorngren on the team by virtue of her Int'l Scores as well as Top 3 of the Age-Eligible women. But who gets the 3rd spot? Bell's SB is 33 points higher than Andrews, who didn't even make it into Group 4 for Int'l Scores. This would be, 100% a do-over/repeat of the Miner 2018 situation. In that scenario, I'd bet that Bell makes the team but would the Selection Committee really do that?

In that scenario, I think Andrews gets the nod because there’s no way she’s 3rd at nationals unless she very convincingly outskates Bell, Chen, Glenn, Thorngren, and (fingers crossed that she’s competing) Tennell. In which case, she has one thing Miner didn’t in 2018, which is a little bit of built in name-recognition and goodwill with the general public. They’d put her on the team. Why not?

I also think the odds of that happening are so close to zero that it’s just a thought experiment. I could see Levito being top two, but between all the other top contenders, I’d be shocked if two of them don’t skate well enough to medal along with Liu. I just wouldn’t even begin to predict which two.

 

[Karen-W]

In that scenario, I think Andrews gets the nod because there’s no way she’s 3rd at nationals unless she very convincingly outskates Bell, Chen, Glenn, Thorngren, and (fingers crossed that she’s competing) Tennell. In which case, she has one thing Miner didn’t in 2018, which is a little bit of built in name-recognition and goodwill with the general public. They’d put her on the team. Why not?

I also think the odds of that happening are so close to zero that it’s just a thought experiment. I could see Levito being top two, but between all the other top contenders, I’d be shocked if two of them don’t skate well enough to medal along with Liu. I just wouldn’t even begin to predict which two.

So, you send Andrews on the Women's side but... Say we apply this thought experiment to the Men's side and the results are:

1) Chen
2) Zhou
3) Malinin
4) Pulkinen
5) Brown

The argument is still send Brown because his international scores are 20+ points higher than Malinin? Even though Malinin at least managed to qualify into Group 4 based on his int'l scores, unlike Andrews on the Women's side. Okay, then. I mean, bearing this full thought experiment out, it stands to reason that if Malinin and Pulkinen beat Brown at Nats, they'd have to have very convincingly outskated Brown, just like Andrews would have to have very convincingly Bell, Chen, Glenn, Thorngren, etc.

 

[Trillian]

So, you send Andrews on the Women's side but... Say we apply this thought experiment to the Men's side and the results are:

1) Chen
2) Zhou
3) Malinin
4) Pulkinen
5) Brown

The argument is still send Brown because his international scores are 20+ points higher than Malinin?

Absolutely not, Malinin would and should go in that scenario. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

ETA: I also wouldn’t consider that a great comparison because Brown ≠ Bell and Malinin ≠ Andrews. But sure, if Pulkinen manages to beat Brown at nationals, Ilia Malinin can go to the Olympics.

 

[Trillian]

But sure, if Pulkinen manages to beat Brown at nationals, Ilia Malinin can go to the Olympics.

Calling myself out here because I hate the way I phrased this and I think I was rude, which wasn’t my intention. I’ve watched all these skaters to grow up and am genuinely rooting for everyone to have great performances at nationals. No one has really booked their tickets yet besides Chen and the top two dance teams.

The point I really wanted to make when I came out of my decade-long skating forum hibernation is that I think some of the conversation here has involved devaluing what certain skaters have accomplished this season. Zhou has established himself as a medal contender, and Brown has posted top 10-caliber scores without exception. It might be interesting to think about what Malinin or anyone else would need to do at this point to prove that they deserve to be in the conversation. But if the scenario involves pretending that one of the top skaters in the world is somehow magically not one of the top skaters in the world anymore…what conversation are we really having?

 

[misskarne]

In US men's, 4 out of the 5 most recent US Olympic medalists have done so in their second Olympics. Only Tim Goebel medaled at his first. A not unreasonable hope is that either Nathan or Vincent (both at their second Olympics) will medal.

...and it will also be Jason's second Olympics. You seem quite fixated on how needed it is for everyone else to get a second shot at the Olympics, except for Jason.

And, I firmly believe had Max not completely bombed at Nats, he would have been Alternate #2 instead of Miner. As it was, Max's Nats results was really, really bad, so the Selection Committee put Miner in the Alternate #2 position.

Are we assuming that "not bombing" was also not "skated really well"? Max had already beaten Zhou twice head to head that year. Had he skated well, it's not without possibility he would have beaten Zhou and perhaps taken his spot on the team, rather than discussion about alternate spots.

 

[Karen-W]

...and it will also be Jason's second Olympics. You seem quite fixated on how needed it is for everyone else to get a second shot at the Olympics, except for Jason.

Are we assuming that "not bombing" was also not "skated really well"? Max had already beaten Zhou twice head to head that year. Had he skated well, it's not without possibility he would have beaten Zhou and perhaps taken his spot on the team, rather than discussion about alternate spots.

Sure, had Max skated really well, he could have beaten Zhou, but then, the discussion still would have been Miner vs #4 (in this scenario, Zhou rather than Rippon) for the 3rd spot because Rippon, Brown, Aaron & Zhou had all been scoring in the same 10 point window during the fall. But, specifically, had he skated well enough to finish 7th and right behind Jason instead of 9th and nearly 30 points behind Jason, I think the #2 & #3 alternate spots would have been flipped between him and Miner.

 

[MacMadame]

Just gonna throw this out there again. Look at 2018 through this year's criteria and explain to me how Ross should have been sent over Adam

You're missing my point. I was responding to someone who was saying that USFS wouldn't dare to not send certain people because of how it would look. They obviously don't care about that as not sending Miner shows.

 

[Karen-W]

You're missing my point. I was responding to someone who was saying that USFS wouldn't dare to not send certain people because of how it would look. They obviously don't care about that as not sending Miner shows.

Gotcha, sorry! I did misinterpret what you were saying. I agree, the USFS doesn't really care about "how it looks" - they're going to send who they want to send. We'll know in another 6 weeks!

 

[Tavi]

I've been thinking about the selection for the men's team and my current feeling is if at Nationals Nathan and Vincent in some order or another take gold and silver, a younger skater takes bronze and Jason takes pewter (or less), then the younger guy should be named to the team. If this takes some renegotiation on the part of the selection committee, casually overlooking rules they claimed to have set up, they should do it.

I was a big fan of Jeffrey Buttle and I saw much of what I loved about his skating in Jason, the artistry, the musicality, the ability (no small thing) to bring out the best in his choreographers. I certainly didn't love either for his quad mastery. But one thing Jeffrey had that I don't think Jason does is the ability to think while he's skating. When Jeffrey made a mistake, he corrected it later in the program to regain the lost points. Jason seems to be sliding into the opposite direction, turning triples into doubles and doubles into singles. This could be why Jeffrey ended up with 2 world medals (including gold) and an Olympic medal, while Jason has never reached that level of international success.

Should Jason win bronze thanks to a high PCS score and noticeably lower TES scores than the pewter winner, were I the Olympic selection committee, I'd have a long visit with Jason, Tracy and Brian and I'd explain to them that the Olympics is not a vanity event and that Jason is expected to skate without mental errors.

If it's any comfort, should Hanyu make the Japanese Olympic team with a less than brilliant skate (or with no skate at all), I'd expect the Japanese Olympic selection committee to explain to him and his coaches that the Olympics is not a vanity event, but I'd give Hanyu a Pooh bear or two to make the lesson more palpable.

You’re absolutely entitled to your opinion, but I do find some of your logic head scratching, to say the least.

Among other things, changing published rules after the fact to benefit one skater only would be unfair to all US skaters in all disciplines, not just Jason.

Regarding Jeff Buttle’s competitiveness versus Jason’s, I think you’re overlooking two huge factors: first, Jeff was competing under different rules (ie, under 6.0 / early IJS); and second, when he was competing, most men were attempting no more than one quad in the SP and one in the FS, and many weren’t doing them at all. So of course it was easier for Jeff to be competitive at the top.

Regarding Jason’s alleged mental errors as demonstrated by popped jumps: both Shoma and Nathan popped multiple jumps at Skate America, as did Vincent at NHK, with the result that none of them won those competitions, and of course, at 2021 Worlds, poor Vincent made errors on all 3 jumping passes, fell twice, and failed to qualify for the FS. Should these three guys also be told sternly that the Olympics is not a vanity event and that they’re expected to skate without errors?

By the way, Jeff Buttle may often have been able to correct errors after making mistakes, but he won bronze at the 2006 Olympics despite falling on his 4T, popping several jumps, and missing levels on a couple of his spins.

 

[Karen-W]

You’re absolutely entitled to your opinion, but I do find some of your logic head scratching, to say the least.

Among other things, changing published rules after the fact to benefit one skater only would be unfair to all US skaters in all disciplines, not just Jason.

The criteria as currently written puts a skater who finishes Top 3 at Nationals in the same Group (3) as Jason has qualified into because of his International Scores. The Selection Criteria does not state that, if more than one skater is qualified into any Group then whomever has the highest median Int'l Score will then be selected. The Committee can pick whomever they want, once all of the Group placements are final after Nationals Results are known.

 

[Tavi]

The criteria as currently written puts a skater who finishes Top 3 at Nationals in the same Group (3) as Jason has qualified into because of his International Scores. The Selection Criteria does not state that, if more than one skater is qualified into any Group then whomever has the highest median Int'l Score will then be selected. The Committee can pick whomever they want, once all of the Group placements are final after Nationals Results are known.

I realize that. I was referring specifically to Missing’s statement that “If this takes some renegotiation on the part of the selection committee, casually overlooking rules they claimed to have set up, they should do it.”

 

[Marco]

Thanks @Karen-W for compiling. It appears the situation is clearer.

For the men, Nathan and Vincent are basic locks and are most likely the 2 to skate at the Team Event, and the 3rd spot is Jason's to lose [rough average total score: 260], with possible challengers being Jimmy and Ilia. Jimmy has proven from various events this season that he doesn't have the consistency and sufficient technical edge to outscore Jason but he has one more event (Golden Spin) as his last shot. Same for Ilia - who has the fire power but not the consistency yet to challenge Jason. He also has one more event (JGPF) as his last shot. If neither Jimmy nor Ilia scored significant scores at their next event (at least break 260), then I expect Jason can place 5th at Nationals and still make it to the Olympics.

For the ladies, despite coaching change, I say Alysa is a basic lock. Karen is next [rough average score: 192] and has broken 200 twice and to me is quite secure. The only other factor that makes me feel she isn't a basic lock is that her scores greatly fluctuate (range of 35). Politically though, she was favoured over Amber last year to go to Worlds and she got the job done as the top placing US woman to secure the potential 3rd spot when Bradie wasn't consistent. The last spot is between Amber, Bradie, Mariah and Lindsay.

Amber [rough average score: 186] is the only other skater to have broken 200 which she barely did at SkAm, but like Karen her scores are quite up and down (range of 25). Mariah's rough average score is 185 but she still has events coming up. Lindsay's rough average score of 185 is also right up there with Mariah and Amber but her last event is JGPF which carries a lower BV with one less element but she should still be able to showcase consistency there and prove that she deserves the Polina Edmunds treatment. These three have such a similar average score that USFS will probably want them to fight it out at Nationals, unless Mariah and Lindsay pull out big numbers at their next events.

The question mark is of course Bradie who hasn't skated all season so statistically her rough average score is 197 which is what she received from Worlds, but obviously this has nothing to do with how she is skating at all this season. Judging from all sorts of voices and political considerations, she can probably make a good case for the team if she managed 3rd at Nationals with 185+. If she skips even Nationals, then all bets are off and we will see how the petition goes and how Mariah / Amber / Lindsay managed to score at Nationals. My guess is if any of these 3 scored over 200 at Nationals, Bradie probably won't have a successful petition.

Remember though, ice is slippery, and politiks is even more slippery

Oh my. This is getting exciting.

On the men's side, Jason making GPF further solidifies his position. Jason, Ilia and Jimmy all have one event left before Nationals. If going by current trends, Jason gets into 260 (as he has done all season) and the other two don't (as they haven't been able to all season, each having scored an avg in the 220s only), I would think that deep down, the chances for the latter two would have become minimal regardless of Nationals - the only potential logical outcome at Nationals that could weaken Jason's position is if Ilia and/or Jimmy scores above 260 at Nationals and Jason gets below 240 - but even so it is too easy to brush it off as a one time fluke delivery for the former (Miner style) and a one time fluke tank for the latter (Adam style). And we know how USFS felt about choosing in that situation. If Jason barely loses out on 3rd by a few points, I doubt USFS would even care, just like they didn't with Amber vs Karen last year (and Karen wasn't even as far ahead as Amber then).

Obviously, if Ilia and Jimmy manage to touch 260 at their event next week, then all bets are off - and Nationals (and official practices) will matter a lot more.

For the women, I am glad Mariah picked the safe / smart route to hit a high score when her 3/3 isn't ready. Her rough average is now on par with Karen's, but for me 193 (Karen, Mariah) is not that far ahead of 186 (Amber, Lindsay) so JGPF and Nationals will still matter, and Bradie's petition will matter. A little less than 2 months til Nationals, is Bradie even on the ice yet? If she misses Nationals and if enough of the women scored above 193 which was what Bradie scored at Worlds in 2021, I think her petition may not be successful. If however she competes at Nationals I think all girls except for Alysa will control their own fate.

What's going to be even more exciting is if Lindsay and Mariah further improve on their avg or even their SB in their remaining event. Mariah repeating her performances in Russia at Golden Spin is going to attract another huge score.

 

[Karen-W]

Oh my. This is getting exciting.

On the men's side, Jason making GPF further solidifies his position. Jason, Ilia and Jimmy all have one event left before Nationals. If going by current trends, Jason gets into 260 (as he has done all season) and the other two don't (as they haven't been able to all season, each having scored an avg in the 220s only), I would think that deep down, the chances for the latter two would have become minimal regardless of Nationals - the only potential logical outcome at Nationals that could weaken Jason's position is if Ilia and/or Jimmy scores above 260 at Nationals and Jason gets below 240 - but even so it is too easy to brush it off as a one time fluke delivery for the former (Miner style) and a one time fluke tank for the latter (Adam style). And we know how USFS felt about choosing in that situation. If Jason barely loses out on 3rd by a few points, I doubt USFS would even care, just like they didn't with Amber vs Karen last year (and Karen wasn't even as far ahead as Amber then).

Obviously, if Ilia and Jimmy manage to touch 260 at their event next week, then all bets are off - and Nationals (and official practices) will matter a lot more.

Just a reminder, two of Ilia's scores are from Junior events, as is his final event - the JGPF. We don't know how the USFS is going compare those scores to Senior scores. We also know that he scored 274.11 at the Leesburg VA NQS competition at the end of October with 4 clean quads in the FS, one of which was a 4z-eu-3s, and in his SP at that event he had a hand down on his 4z and a clean 4t-3t. I don't think that there is any way it can be assumed that 1) he won't score 260 or higher at Nats or 2) that the Selection Committee will brush off such a score should he beat Jason as a fluke (for either of them).

It is flawed logic to compare Ilia this season to Amber Glenn last season. He's been competing junior internationally all season and had pretty good results on that front. Last season there were very few competitions and Amber's previous track record over the previous 4-5 senior seasons was inconsistent at best.

I do think, unless Jimmy can put up a 246+ score at Golden Spin and then better that mark at Nationals, your thought process and logic on who the Selection Committee would send is accurate. Jimmy has been competing on the senior level for several seasons now and hasn't made much of an impact internationally. The comparison to Amber last season is reasonable, IMO.

For the women, I am glad Mariah picked the safe / smart route to hit a high score when her 3/3 isn't ready. Her rough average is now on par with Karen's, but for me 193 (Karen, Mariah) is not that far ahead of 186 (Amber, Lindsay) so JGPF and Nationals will still matter, and Bradie's petition will matter. A little less than 2 months til Nationals, is Bradie even on the ice yet? If she misses Nationals and if enough of the women scored above 193 which was what Bradie scored at Worlds in 2021, I think her petition may not be successful. If however she competes at Nationals I think all girls except for Alysa will control their own fate.

What's going to be even more exciting is if Lindsay and Mariah further improve on their avg or even their SB in their remaining event. Mariah repeating her performances in Russia at Golden Spin is going to attract another huge score.

Just as a reminder, like Ilia, two of Lindsay's scores are from Junior events, as is her final event - the JGPF. Like Ilia, we don't know how the Selection Committee is going to compare those scores to Senior scores. Like Ilia, Lindsay competed in the Leesburg VA NQS as a dry run to her senior international debut and scored 202.60. She had a clean 3z-3t in her SP, and clean 3f-3t and 3z-eu-3s in her FS while her 3a was downgraded and her 3z-3lo wasn't clean.

Also - it's not their average but their MEDIAN score that matters. Right now, if Mariah duplicates or increases her Rostelecom score, she will have a median score that places her in Group 2 along with Alysa. Lindsay can firmly move herself into Group 3 with another 194+ score at the JGPF.

At this point, I'm just happy that we have 3 women who are in Groups 2 or 3 with the potential for one more moving into Group 3. I really hope that Ilia and/or Jimmy can also move themselves into Group 3 before Nationals because it makes it more exciting and makes the Olympic team selections (or, well, at least one in each discipline) much less of a foregone conclusion!

 

[Marco]

I am happy to give a slight buffer to junior scores to reflect the potential scores of a ChSq, but not much since this is usually offset when PCS typically get reduced when someone junior turned senior within the same season. His junior PCS at JGP Austria was 75 but his senior PCS at CS Austria was 70. Lindsay's stayed quite stable (good for her) but comparatively she placed 4th in the free after winning TES but placing only 7th in PCS. I am ignoring that 274 for Ilia and 202 for Lindsay since you did as well in your grouping analysis for the same reason - it doesn't form part of the criteria.

You are right that median scores should be considered for grouping, but I am using average scores to compare skaters within the same group to assess their consistency. It's not official or anything - just common logic for myself.

I think we will see an exciting Nationals regardless of GPF / JGPF / Golden Spin and regardless of whether teams are close to being finalized (in our opinions anyways). Can't wait! (and again thanks for all your compiling @Karen-W even if we don't always agree on things)

 

[Karen-W]

I am happy to give a slight buffer to junior scores to reflect the potential scores of a ChSq, but not much since this is usually offset when PCS typically get reduced when someone junior turned senior within the same season. His junior PCS at JGP Austria was 75 but his senior PCS at CS Austria was 70. Lindsay's stayed quite stable (good for her) but comparatively she placed 4th in the free after winning TES but placing only 7th in PCS. I am ignoring that 274 for Ilia and 202 for Lindsay since you did as well in your grouping analysis for the same reason - it doesn't form part of the criteria.

You are right that median scores should be considered for grouping, but I am using average scores to compare skaters within the same group to assess their consistency. It's not official or anything - just common logic for myself.

I think we will see an exciting Nationals regardless of GPF / JGPF / Golden Spin and regardless of whether teams are close to being finalized (in our opinions anyways). Can't wait! (and again thanks for all your compiling @Karen-W even if we don't always agree on things)

Their NQS scores don't count for the grouping criteria but I do think they give us an idea of what sort of scores we can expect for comparable skates at Nationals, if that makes sense. Others have pointed out that Jason's ceiling is probably similar to Ilia's when taking into account Nationals inflation, so it might not make much of a difference in the long run. I'm not really comparing or looking at PCS between the JGP and CS events for either skater because the skates themselves were not similar.

I see what you're saying with regard to average scores. I do the same thing myself when I'm looking at the skaters within the same groups. Plus, it adds an extra layer of interest in how the USFS will handle the Team Event! Up until this weekend, we'd all been saying it was a foregone conclusion that Alysa would have that role but Mariah has certainly put herself in the conversation!

I agree, it's going to be an exciting Nationals, especially if we have more skaters qualified in some of the higher groups. Pairs is going to be an absolute nail biter. And I'm especially interested to see how the next tier of ice dancers after HawBak, GrePar, and CarPon sort themselves out!

 

[Coco]

Didn't Lindsay skate at Warsaw? Does that count as an international event for purposes of this selection process?

She scored a 184.4. She did have a clean 3z3l in the FS, iirc.

 

[Karen-W]

Didn't Lindsay skate at Warsaw? Does that count as an international event for purposes of this selection process?

She scored a 184.4. She did have a clean 3z3l in the FS, iirc.

Yes. That score is included. And it's currently her median score until the JGPF.

 

[Tahuu]

Jimmy probably doesn’t have a realistic chance but not Ilia. Ilia’s job now is to win JGPF with a personal best and place 3rd at Nationals to get into priority group 3. For skaters in the same priority group, their scoring trends and highest scores (competitiveness) will make the difference.

In comparing junior and senior scores!and competitiveness, the committee should take into account the fact that no quad is allowed in junior men’s short program and choreo sequence in the free.

 

[zebobes]

Jimmy probably doesn’t have a realistic chance but not Ilia. Ilia’s job now is to win JGPF with a personal best and place 3rd at Nationals to get into priority group 3. For skaters in the same priority group, their scoring trends and highest scores (competitiveness) will make the difference.

In comparing junior and senior scores!and competitiveness, the committee should take into account the fact that no quad is allowed in junior men’s short program and choreo sequence in the free.

But for Ilia, I would argue that the no quad rule is actually in his favor. Upgrading the short to Senior content has been a challenge for him, while he has had clean Junior SPs so far on the JGP.

 

[Tahuu]

But for Ilia, I would argue that the no quad rule is actually in his favor. Upgrading the short to Senior content has been a challenge for him, while he has had clean Junior SPs so far on the JGP.

He didn’t have enough international senior SP data, in fact only one, to judge from. He could score well over 90 in the short with quads at Nationals, as he had showed at domestic competitions.

 

[Tahuu]

If GPF is canceled, Nationals will be even more important and interesting.

What if Mariah or Karen beats Alysa or Jason beats Vincent at Nationals? Who would they choose to skate in the team event? Scores from 2021 worlds, 2021 GPF and 2022 Nationals are supposed to be weighted more to assess competitiveness. Karen and Jason had good scores from Worlds.

 

[VGThuy]

For the team event, I have to say Vincent shouldn't do the SP when we have Nathan who can win the SP outright. The LP is where he can build up his TES advantage over other skaters and worst he can do is place 5th in the LP phase.

Regarding Ilia - we know from his scores that he HAS to do quads in the SP because if he does triples like Jason, Jason blows him out of the water.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

For the team event, I have to say Vincent shouldn't do the SP when we have Nathan who can win the SP outright. The LP is where he can build up his TES advantage over other skaters and worst he can do is place 5th in the LP phase.

Regarding Ilia - we know from his scores that he HAS to do quads in the SP because if he does triples like Jason, Jason blows him out of the water.

I disagree I think Vincent is stronger in the short program than Nathan has been. And I said give the free program to Nathan

 

[Karen-W]

I disagree I think Vincent is stronger in the short program than Nathan has been. And I said give the free program to Nathan

There's no way Nathan is competing in the TE FS given that the Men's event starts 2 days later.