USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

[toddlj]

I disagree I think Vincent is stronger in the short program than Nathan has been. And I said give the free program to Nathan

Understood... Both men have struggled at the SP in the past, most famously Vincent at the last worlds and Nathan at the last Olympics. It's a bit of a crapshoot in that way. But I think Nathan's ceiling and floor are both higher, so I think they'll want him to do it.

 

[sheetz]

I disagree I think Vincent is stronger in the short program than Nathan has been. And I said give the free program to Nathan

Have you forgotten that Vincent didn't qualify for the FS at Worlds?

In any case, you have to remember that Nathan has 3 different jump layouts for the SP depending on which quads he chooses to employ. His least successful layout is his riskiest one which has both 4Lz and 4F. When he does 4T he's hardly ever been beaten.

 

[Rukia]

For the team event, I have to say Vincent shouldn't do the SP when we have Nathan who can win the SP outright. The LP is where he can build up his TES advantage over other skaters and worst he can do is place 5th in the LP phase.

I agree with this. Vincent can really excel in the LP. Plus it's a really good program so I'd like to see it twice at the Olympics haha.

 

[VGThuy]

I disagree I think Vincent is stronger in the short program than Nathan has been. And I said give the free program to Nathan

When there are double the amount of competitors in the SP, you want your less risky skater doing the SP. Nathan can mess up but not as bad as Vincent can mess up. Jason would be a safe option BUT he runs of the risk of being passed up by a good number of skaters since his BV ceiling is lower than the others. For the LP, there's less of a risk since there are only 5 competitors total, and despite GP Italy showing the opposite, Vincent's high risk/high reward LP BV helps him make up a lot of ground on the others with TES (if his jumps are rotated just enough).

 

[tony]

If the USFS 1. goes the same route they did in 2018, 2. Brown is on the team, 3. and men still stay first in the schedule, then it might be likely than Chen does the SP and Brown the LP. Remember Rippon revealed in 2018 that the USFS went by overall highest world ranking across the four disciplines as first choices, and then if that skater(s) declined wanting to do both programs, it went to the next-highest in the standings. Brown is way too far ahead of Zhou and that won't change by the Olympics.

However, the US might be a little more strategic on getting every last point this time around since the goal really should be challenging for gold.

 

[allezfred]

If it's any comfort, should Hanyu make the Japanese Olympic team with a less than brilliant skate (or with no skate at all), I'd expect the Japanese Olympic selection committee to explain to him and his coaches that the Olympics is not a vanity event, but I'd give Hanyu a Pooh bear or two to make the lesson more palpable.

I have read some outlandish things in this thread, but this really takes the biscuit.

Spoiler: If Hanyu can stand upright, he is going to Beijing. Without the Pooh Bear.

 

[Karen-W]

If the USFS 1. goes the same route they did in 2018, 2. Brown is on the team, 3. and men still stay first in the schedule, then it might be likely than Chen does the SP and Brown the LP. Remember Rippon revealed in 2018 that the USFS went by overall highest world ranking across the four disciplines as first choices, and then if that skater(s) declined wanting to do both programs, it went to the next-highest in the standings. Brown is way too far ahead of Zhou and that won't change by the Olympics.

However, the US might be a little more strategic on getting every last point this time around since the goal really should be challenging for gold.

I don't think the selection criteria document states how they will prioritize either the disciplines or the skaters within each discipline. World ranking would have made sense in 2018 but, like you said, the USFS should be a little more strategic this time around since they have a legitimate shot at gold and the Men's event is one in which they have a significant advantage over Russia in using a 1-2 punch of Chen-Zhou rather than Brown in any capacity.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

There's no way Nathan is competing in the TE FS given that the Men's event starts 2 days later.

Well then who is? Matt Savoie?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Have you forgotten that Vincent didn't qualify for the FS at Worlds?

In any case, you have to remember that Nathan has 3 different jump layouts for the SP depending on which quads he chooses to employ. His least successful layout is his riskiest one which has both 4Lz and 4F. When he does 4T he's hardly ever been beaten.

Oh I’m not basing this what happened back in 19 clickety-clack, I’m basing it that he destroyed Nathan in the short program at skate America and then in the free program is where Nathan seems to be more relaxed and is able to get those quads without mistakes. Also in the free program gives a judges more of a change to ding Vincent on any underrotations which does not plague Nathan

Also the last time I saw Nathan do a short program in Olympics he almost didn’t qualify for the free program either. So don’t need to revisit that road

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Understood... Both men have struggled at the SP in the past, most famously Vincent at the last worlds and Nathan at the last Olympics. It's a bit of a crapshoot in that way. But I think Nathan's ceiling and floor are both higher, so I think they'll want him to do it.

Have Vincent do the short program and get it out of the way. If Vincent does the long program it gives the judges that many more opportunities to search for under rotations that Nathan does not have. And like I just said a moment ago I have zero confidence in Nathan at short programs at Olympics.

 

[Rukia]

Well then who is? Matt Savoie?

Please we'd be lucky to have Matt Savoie back.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

When there are double the amount of competitors in the SP, y

This is definitely a very valid point

How does it work again? After the short program five teams are cut?

 

[sheetz]

Oh I’m not basing this what happened back in 19 clickety-clack, I’m basing it that he destroyed Nathan in the short program at skate America and then in the free program is where Nathan seems to be more relaxed and is able to get those quads without mistakes. Also in the free program gives a judges more of a change to ding Vincent on any underrotations which does not plague Nathan

Also the last time I saw Nathan do a short program in Olympics he almost didn’t qualify for the free program either. So don’t need to revisit that road

So you can judge Nathan based on what happened back in 2018 and not Vincent for this past Worlds? As I said, Nathan went for a unnecessarily risky layout at Skate America. At Skate Canada he went for a safer layout and scored the highest of anyone this season.

 

[Rukia]

So you can judge Nathan based on what happened back in 2018 and not Vincent for this past Worlds? As I said, Nathan went for a unnecessarily risky layout at Skate America. At Skate Canada he went for a safer layout and scored the highest of anyone this season.

Also it was his first competition of the season which is always kind of a write off for Nathan haha. I think he'll be fine (but also I don't know if I will breath easy while he skates lol).

 

[BittyBug]

Spoiler: If Hanyu can stand upright, he is going to Beijing. Without the Pooh Bear.

Why can't Pooh go to Beijing?

 

[Carolla5501]

Honestly, I’m almost afraid to put Vincent on the team event. He can be great and then he can be a total failure.

Ideally Nathan would do both because I think overall he’s better but I can understand why he might not want to do it

 

[yeslek]

I disagree I think Vincent is stronger in the short program than Nathan has been. And I said give the free program to Nathan

But he also didn’t make the free at worlds

 

[Karen-W]

Some of the arguments in support of Jason doing the FS or Vincent doing the SP for the TE are about as ridiculous as some of the issues I was dealing with at work today...

Jason's high in the SP in the past year is lower than 2/3 of Chen, 4/5 Zhou, 3/4 Kagiyama, and 1/3 Uno. There is a remote chance that a PB from Brown would beat whichever skater Japan uses in the SP, but I'd take my chances on Chen or Zhou, in a heartbeat, to square off against that man instead. And there is no way Brown should be used for the FS when his highest score in that segment during the last year is 5 & 7 points lower than the lowest scores Kagiyama & Uno, respectively, have put up in that segment during the same time frame.

The Chen/Zhou discussion is a bit more interesting because it really is a mixed bag with those two. Conventional wisdom says that Nathan is the better bet in the SP and my expectation is that he will prefer to do the SP rather than the FS, but if I was Team USA, I might want him in the FS instead because Vincent's really only come close to 200 once whereas Nathan's broke that barrier twice. On the other hand, Vincent's SB in the FS is higher than Kagiyama or Uno. It will be interesting to see how this plays out at the GPF (assuming it still happens).

Short Program Scores
Chen
Worlds 2021 - 98.85
Skate America - 82.89
Skate Canada - 106.72

Brown
Worlds 2021 - 91.25
Finlandia - 92.39
Skate Canada - 94.00
IdF - 89.39

Zhou
Worlds 2021 - 70.51
Cranberry - 102.51
Nebelhorn - 97.35
Skate America - 97.43
NHK - 99.51

Kagiyama
Worlds 2021 - 100.96
Asian Open - 97.80
GP Italia - 80.53
IdF - 100.64

Uno
Worlds 2021 - 92.62
Skate America - 89.07
NHK - 102.58

Free Skate Scores
Chen
Worlds 2021 - 222.03
Skate America - 186.48
Skate Canada - 200.46

Brown
Worlds 2021 - 170.92
Finlandia - 170.13
Skate Canada - 165.55
IdF - 174.81

Zhou
Cranberry - 185.73
Nebelhorn - 186.88
Skate America - 198.13
NHK - 161.18

Kagiyama
Worlds 2021 - 190.81
Asian Open - 179.98
GP Italia - 197.49
IdF - 185.77

Uno
Worlds 2021 - 184.82
Skate America - 181.61
NHK - 187.57

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Why can't Pooh go to Beijing?

Restrictions on international spectators?

 

[VGThuy]

In case people haven’t heard,

Why China censors banned Winnie the Pooh

The Bear of Very Little Brain joins a long line of funny internet references to China's top leaders.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sylvia]

I also replied to BittyBug in the Olympics thread that's in the Politically Incorrect forum: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...protests-politics-thread.108757/#post-6125682

 

[Coco]

O.M.G.

Was musing today about what might happen if someone used the Duchesnay's 1990 music.

 

[Karen-W]

In case people haven’t heard,

Why China censors banned Winnie the Pooh

The Bear of Very Little Brain joins a long line of funny internet references to China's top leaders.

www.bbc.com

Well, that settles it. Hanyu should boycott the Olympics in support of Pooh!

 

[Karen-W]

One final update to the US Olympic Selection Criteria with 4 weeks to go before Nationals! Next time the groups are updated will be based on Nationals results! Are we getting excited?!

	Group 1 Highest Priority	Group 2	Group 3	Group 4 Lowest Priority
CRITERIA FOR 2022 US CHAMPIONSHIPS	Placed in the top 3 AND	Placed in the top 5 AND	Placed in the top 3 OR	Placed in the top 5 OR
CRITERIA FOR 2021 INTERNATIONAL SCORES *	Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds M – 289.18 W – 217.20 P – 217.63 D – 214.35	Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds M – 272.04 W – 208.44 P – 201.18 D – 208.77 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 3 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds M – 245.99 W – 193.44 P – 184.41 D – 188.45 AND/OR scored once equal to Top 5 at 2021 Worlds	Consistently scored equal to Top 15 at 2021 Worlds M – 225.55 W – 178.10 P – 157.29 D – 178.18 OR Scored once equal to Top 10 at 2021 Worlds

Men
Group 1 - Nathan Chen (320.88 Worlds 2021; 269.37 SkAm; 307.18 SCI; GPF)

Group 2 - Vincent Zhou (70.51 Worlds 2021; 288.26 Cranberry; 284.23 CS Nebelhorn; 295.56 SkAm; 260.69 NHK; GPF)

Group 3 - Jason Brown (262.17 Worlds 2021; 262.52 CS Finlandia; 259.55 SCI; 264.20 IdF; GPF)

Group 4 -

• Jimmy Ma (230.59 Cranberry; 233.58 US Classic; 228.12 SkAm; 195.09 CS Warsaw; 250.97 CS Golden Spin)
• Ilia Malinin (214.64 JGP Courchevel 1; 245.35 JGP Austria; 222.55 CS Austria; JGPF)

Others with International Assignments
Tomoki Hiwatashi (205.17 Cranberry; 213.11 CS Lombardia; 221.77 SCI; 217.08 NHK)
Max Naumov (223.15 Cranberry; 207.39 US Classic) withdrawn from Nationals per this post by @Sylvia in the US Nats KnC sub-forum
Yaroslav Paniot (210.84 Cranberry)
Camden Pulkinen (179.50 Cranberry; 208.99 US Classic; 204.24 CS Finlandia; 193.18 NHK; 237.97 Rostelecom)
Eric Sjoberg (221.12 US Classic; 189.38 CS Warsaw; 212.77 CS Golden Spin)
Dinh Tran (176.72 US Classic)

Women
Group 2 - Alysa Liu (205.74 Cranberry; 219.24 CS Lombardia; 207.40 CS Nebelhorn; 206.53 SCI; 202.90 NHK)

Group 3 -

• Mariah Bell (179.42 Cranberry; 190.79 IdF; 210.35 Rostelecom)
• Karen Chen (208.63 Worlds 2021; 173.00 CS ACI; 202.49 CS Finlandia; 183.41 SCI; 194.00 IdF)

Group 4 -

• Amber Glenn (183.46 CS Finlandia; 201.02 SkAm; 175.83 NHK; 183.36 CS Golden Spin)
• Bradie Tennell* (197.81 Worlds 2021)
• Lindsay Thorngren (181.45 JGP Courchevel 1; 193.77 JGP Ljubljana; 184.40 CS Warsaw; JGPF)

Others with International Assignments
Starr Andrews (155.25 CS ACI; 177.63 SkAm; 157.35 CS Austria)
Hanna Harrell (158.89 CS Golden Spin)
Gabriella Izzo (182.76 US Classic; 155.78 CS Warsaw; 167.96 CS Golden Spin)
Audrey Shin (174.73 Cranberry; 172.46 CS Lombardia; 160.78 SkAm; 169.99 CS Austria)
Sierra Venetta (159.72 Cranberry; 177.40 US Classic)

Pairs
Group 2 - Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier (192.10 Worlds 2021; 205.87 Cranberry; 212.55 John Nicks; 202.97 SkAm; 201.69 IdF; 186.69 CS Golden Spin)

Group 3 -

• Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc (185.31 Worlds 2021; 170.64 CS ACI; 193.00 CS Finlandia; 189.90 SCI; 202.79 NHK)
• Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson (195.28 Cranberry; 196.69 John Nicks; 191.89 CS Finlandia; 197.42 SkAm; 196.85 CS Warsaw; 180.49 CS Golden Spin)
• Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov (158.81 Cranberry; 195.20 John Nicks; 190.03 NHK; 186.16 Rostelecom; 195.32 CS Golden Spin)

Group 4 -

• Emily Chan/Spencer Howe (182.44 Cranberry; 170.08 John Nicks; 163.39 CS Warsaw)
• Chelsea Liu/Danny O'Shea (165.20 Cranberry; 177.45 John Nicks; 175.40 SkAm)
• Katie McBeath/Nathan Bartholomay (157.74 Cranberry; 161.69 John Nicks; 168.61 CS ACI)
• Anastasiia Smirnova/Danylo Siianytsia (145.09 Cranberry; 153.63 JGP Poland; 156.40 JGP Austria)

Others with International Assignments
Kate Finster/Matej Silecky (130.47 John Nicks)

Dance
Group 2 -

• Madison Chock/Evan Bates (212.69 Worlds 2021; 208.31 CS Finlandia; 208.23 SkAm; 210.78 NHK; GPF)
• Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue (214.71 Worlds 2021; 207.30 US Classic; 209.54 SkAm; 207.90 GP Italia; GPF)

Group 3 - Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker (188.51 Worlds 2021; 187.62 Rostelecom; 191.32 CS Golden Spin)

Group 4 - Caroline Green/Michael Parsons (174.98 LPIDI; 188.43 CS ACI; 186.51 SCI; 178.26 GP Italia; 187.84 CS Warsaw)

Others with International Assignments
Emily Bratti/Ian Somerville (166.83 CS Austria; 172.24 CS Golden Spin)
Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko (172.78 CS Lombardia; 178.27 CS Finlandia; 168.76 SCI; 175.91 IdF)
Molly Cesanek/Yehor Yehorov (166.12 LPIDI; 151.76 CS Lombardia; 156.97 SkAm; 166.71 CS Golden Spin)
Eva Pate/Logan Bye (159.87 LPIDI; 171.70 US Classic; 171.00 CS Warsaw)
Lorraine McNamara/Anton Spiridonov (155.12 LPIDI; 161.82 US Classic; 159.03 CS Austria)
Katarina Wolfkostin/Jeffrey Chen (165.01 JGP Courchevel 1; 163.25 JGP Ljubljana; 164.33 CS Austria, JGPF)

* = yet to make 2021-22 season debut
Bolded = Score that Qualified Skater into Group
Italics = Junior International score
Green = Postponed International Assignment
Red = Does not have US passport
Removed skaters who 1) Lack the TES minimums, 2) Did not qualify for Nationals, or 3) are not Age-Eligible for Senior Internationals

 

[yeslek]

So as long as K/F place top 5 at nationals they are going and the other three are tied so likely whoever places best out of the three.

 

[Karen-W]

So as long as K/F place top 5 at nationals they are going and the other three are tied so likely whoever places best out of the three.

Yes, but the same can be said for Zhou, Liu, C/B and H/D; and as long as Nathan finishes top 3 at Nats, he's also on the team.

The only discipline where there's more than 1 Olympic spot that's still, essentially, up in the air, is Women.

Men - 2 out of the 3 are pretty much decided
Women - 1 out of 3 is mostly assured
Pairs - 1 out of 2 is essentially locked in
Dance - 2 out of the 3 are all but guaranteed

I do wonder if the USFS will stick to it's "ranking" criteria for determining which team gets preference for the TE if K/F don't win Nats. The way it reads, they should be #1 for consideration but if they lose by any appreciable margin then I'm not sure the USFS won't go with the National Champ since all four teams are relatively close in their scoring potential.

 

[MacMadame]

I have been looking over the criteria and I'm not sure I agree with where @Karen-W has placed some of the skaters. The criteria say "consistently scored" not "scored at least once". Zhou, for example, has only reached the criteria for Group 2 one time. He just missed it at Cranberry and by slightly less at Nebelhorn, and not even close at NHK. So he's only made it one time. That's isn't "consistently."

There are others but he was first in the list.

 

[RoseRed]

I have been looking over the criteria and I'm not sure I agree with where @Karen-W has placed some of the skaters. The criteria say "consistently scored" not "scored at least once". Zhou, for example, has only reached the criteria for Group 2 one time. He just missed it at Cranberry and by slightly less at Nebelhorn, and not even close at NHK. So he's only made it one time. That's isn't "consistently."

There are others but he was first in the list.

No, group 2 is consistent top 5 scores and/or a top 3 score. Vincent's 295 score meets the top 3 criteria.

Same for group 3 - consistently top 10, or at least one top 5 score.

 

[Karen-W]

I have been looking over the criteria and I'm not sure I agree with where @Karen-W has placed some of the skaters. The criteria say "consistently scored" not "scored at least once". Zhou, for example, has only reached the criteria for Group 2 one time. He just missed it at Cranberry and by slightly less at Nebelhorn, and not even close at NHK. So he's only made it one time. That's isn't "consistently."

There are others but he was first in the list.

The Selection Criteria states that "consistently scored" is based on the MEDIAN score the skater has achieved at the eligible competitions.

Specifically, Vincent DOES qualify into Group 2 because he has at LEAST ONE score equal to Worlds Top 3. His 295.56 at Skate America is well above the Top 3 Men's score from Worlds 2021 of 289.18; the same is true for Alysa Liu being placed into Group 2 due to her Lombardia Trophy score.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

I have been looking over the criteria and I'm not sure I agree with where @Karen-W has placed some of the skaters. The criteria say "consistently scored" not "scored at least once". Zhou, for example, has only reached the criteria for Group 2 one time. He just missed it at Cranberry and by slightly less at Nebelhorn, and not even close at NHK. So he's only made it one time. That's isn't "consistently."

There are others but he was first in the list.

USFS defined "consistently" by using the median of all scores at eligible competitions. So for Vincent, his median would be ~286 (Worlds 2021 doesn't count for him) and that is above the 272 threshold for top 5 at Worlds 2021. Also, Group 2 only needs one score equal to top 3, and he got that at Skate America, so he is solidly in Group 2 by fulfilling both criteria, when he only needed ro fulfill one.