U.S. Women [#7]: Make Me a Believer!

[kwanfan1818]

Most of the people watching every four years and haven’t watched the lead up competitions to care to recognize jumps and revolutions or evaluate difficulty and planned content, except perhaps Malinin’s viral 4A, and wouldn’t be disappointed by many landed jumps,no matter which one or how many revolutions. Networks aren’t paying huge money to the IOC to please die-hard figure skating fans.

 

[Private Citizen]

I can only go by what's reported here, and I disagree with it.

The 3A in particular is a game-changer for women, given the potential impact in both the short program and free skate. 3A v. 2A is a 4.7 point base value differentiator in a short program where skaters are are fighting for every tenth of base value.

In the free skate, the skater gets a 4.7 difference AND an extra place to put a double axel. An x+2A+2A+SEQ gets two points over an x+2A+2T+SEQ. So the overall impact of adding a 3A is 6.7 points in the free.

All in all, 11.4 point base value advantage (and that's assuming no bonus values) is huuuuuuge. A woman with a reliable triple axel is almost certain to be on the podium, provided her basic skating is otherwise competitive and she doesn't flub other triples. A top skater with a triple axel in both programs is probably not beatable by a skater without a triple axel. E.g., I don't think Sakamoto could beat Liu under any circumstances if Liu executed 3As in both programs and Sakamoto does not have a 3A. The same probably holds true for Amber Glenn, although she often gets tight and slow.

If a skater is reasonably consistent on the 3A, it is absolutely a risk worth taking in the women's event.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Like Liu is going to do what someone tells her to do, one way or another.

 

[Vagabond]

I’ve always agreed with Sandra Bezic on this, the Olympics is not the event to play something safe, it’s a once in a four year thing, and you’re never guaranteed it, being conservative or safe, doesn’t usually transpire, hence, Sarah Hughes, and her triple triples, and hence Shizuka Arakawa

Arakawa had a triple-triple in her arsenal but omitted it from her Free Skate in Turin when it was clear that she didn't need it to win.

Nice try, though.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Most of the people watching every four years and haven’t watched the lead up competitions to care to recognize jumps and revolutions or evaluate difficulty and planned content, except perhaps Malinin’s viral 4A, and wouldn’t be disappointed by many landed jumps,no matter which one or how many revolutions. Networks aren’t paying huge money to the IOC to please die-hard figure skating fans.

In the example I’m talking about the perspective of the athlete, if I am talented enough to make it to the Olympics there’s no way in the world I’m gonna go there and play it safe. I’d like to win a gold medal or a medal. I think the Olympics is the case to go for it.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Arakawa had a triple-triple in her arsenal but omitted it from her Free Skate in Turin when it was clear that she didn't need it to win.

Nice try, though.

Yeah, but she brought it with, and she was going to do it as it was her intent. When conservative number one and conservative number two were done with their skates Arakawa didn’t need it.

Which in the end is the point I’m trying to make, being conservative, has in my opinion a lesser pay out.

 

[Coco]

Arakawa had a triple-triple in her arsenal but omitted it from her Free Skate in Turin when it was clear that she didn't need it to win.

Nice try, though.

Slutskaya skated last in Turin, so I don't think Arakawa intentionally omitted her 3-3, she just didn't go for it because it must not have felt right.

 

[olympic]

IIRC, I think Arakawa had issues with UR on the 3L and 3-3s (?). This was back in the day when you got nailed by the IJS for a 1/4 UR. So, I think her team's strategy was to avoid penalties

 

[Debbie S]

Alysa attempted a 3A in comp in the 2021-22 season....I think she did it in her GPs and at Worlds but not the Olys? But i don't think she ever got full credit for it, always <. If she can land it cleanly, she would have an advantage but that's a big if. Amber has landed far more clean 3A but has also crashed and burned, so she's also a question mark.

I don't think Alysa would attempt it in the SP. High risk and low reward, similar to Ilia and the 4A.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

don't think Alysa would attempt it in the SP. High risk and low reward, similar to Ilia and the 4A.

Yes, as far as figure skating goes, I don’t think you should attempt that in the short program as you can lose the competition in the short program unless your name is Amber Who has worked herself to be able to get it to that point.

But the free skate… Yes, go for it.

 

[Aceon6]

I trust Alysa to include it if it feels right and to ditch it if it feels like she’s chasing windmills.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Commentary at the time was that the Japanese Fed did not want Arakawa to risk what would be the only medal with the 3/3’s. Arakawa struggled at 2005 Worlds (9th) after her win in 2004 (under OBO), was beaten in 2005 by Slutskaya, Asada, and Cohen at GO, missing the Final, was switched to Morosov late in 2005, and switched her FS late in the season. According to Tarasova, TT wrote her a letter to convince her not to skate to a new FS to Carmen, which, let’s be real, would likely have resembled her layout and elements in the revised Turandot anyway.

The best prediction was that she’d be fighting for bronze, if she could hold up under pressure, and that was without thinking she’d go in as Japan’s last hope for a medal, any medal.

 

[Private Citizen]

I don't think Alysa would attempt it in the SP. High risk and low reward, similar to Ilia and the 4A.

I disagree slightly here. I'd say attempting the triple axel in the SP is a high risk-high reward strategy for women. Landing the triple axel in the short program can set up a skater to win the competition even with a lackluster free skate. E.g., Glenn at 2024 GP de France, where she won overall despite being third in the free skate and almost seven points behind in the free. The 4.7 base value advantage is huge in a field where the base values are very, very tightly packed together.

For Malinin, the 4A in the short program is a high risk and low reward strategy because his total competition base value is already so much higher than everyone else's. (I've lost track of just how much higher.) The point value differentiation is also less because he can only do the 4A as a solo jump, or as part of a combination. The 4A only gives him 1.5 base value points advantage over a 4F (next best option) and 3 base value points over a 4T.

If Malinin could do the 4A instead of the 3A and get 4.5 base value points, it may be worth the risk. Or at least a harder decision.

 

[Debbie S]

I disagree slightly here. I'd say attempting the triple axel in the SP is a high risk-high reward strategy for women. Landing the triple axel in the short program can set up a skater to win the competition even with a lackluster free skate.

Well, yes, as long as the skater lands it. If not, there's a big penalty, not just TES but also PCS. Ex: Amber at Worlds this year. And depending on how far behind, landing it in the FS might not make up the difference. It would have to be extremely consistent for the risk to make sense.

 

[Allskate]

If she can land it cleanly, she would have an advantage but that's a big if. Amber has landed far more clean 3A but has also crashed and burned, so she's also a question mark.

My sense with Amber is that she is consistent with it in practice and that, when she misses, it usually is more mental than anything else. Assuming this remains the same this season, it would be a mistake for her not to include the triple axel IMO.

I'm not sure Brian's logic can really apply to a skater who was only just back on the ice training full time a year ago and at Worlds said she still is only at about 80% of her previous stamina & conditioning level from when she quit skating 3 years ago.

I thought it was Isabeau who was only at 80% at Worlds because she was injured and off the ice for a few months. In any event, Alysa says that her stamina is there now to be able to do a triple axel in competition. She's been training full time for a year at this point, and it will obviously be longer by the time the season starts. Plus, she had been practicing the triple axel this past season even though she didn't include it in her programs. And, of course, she was doing it before her retirement. So, this isn't a brand new jump for her. Also, she's going to have a bunch of competitions this season before the Olympics to test it out, and she then can make her decision about whether to include it (and in which programs/events) at the Olympics.

Plus, only Alysa knows whether she personally would regret leaving it out and not going for it.

 

[PRlady]

The fact that Alysa landed it regularly as a Junior makes me more confident than if it were totally new for her. She has a mental and physical familiarity with the jump. I also trust her instincts.

 

[On My Own]

Slutskaya skated last in Turin, so I don't think Arakawa intentionally omitted her 3-3, she just didn't go for it because it must not have felt right.

Wasn't this when Japan had struggled to get (m)any medals at those Olympics? And she just didn't go for harder content because otherwise she risked a meltdown and could have ended up with nothing, and Japan would have been left with zero?

Looking at the medal table, yeah. One medal - and that's Arakawa's gold.

 

[Karen-W]

I thought it was Isabeau who was only at 80% at Worlds because she was injured and off the ice for a few months. In any event, Alysa says that her stamina is there now to be able to do a triple axel in competition. She's been training full time for a year at this point, and it will obviously be longer by the time the season starts.

No, in her immediate post-FS interview with one of the NBC people (maybe Andrea Joyce?), Alysa said she didn't know what was possible for her skating because she was only at about 75-80%. She was pretty clear that she did not feel like she was fully back at Worlds, despite the win.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

My sense with Amber is that she is consistent with it in practice and that, when she misses, it usually is more mental than anything else. Assuming this remains the same this season, it would be a mistake for her not to include the triple axel IMO.

And when she misses it and it is a non-fall it really is hardly ever a downgrade, it’s either a? Or a 2 foot or a step out.

 

[olympic]

^She did land the 3A in 2022 w/ DG, although that season was not her best.

I am enjoying the well-thought-out posts here, and I am leaning towards being positive about Alysa and the 3A

 

[Allskate]

No, in her immediate post-FS interview with one of the NBC people (maybe Andrea Joyce?), Alysa said she didn't know what was possible for her skating because she was only at about 75-80%.

Well, she is saying now that her stamina is there to start doing the triple axel in competition again, so I don't know why any of us would question that.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don’t think that there’s an argument that she won’t have the stamina this season, but rather that she didn’t last season and, as a result, it won’t get enough mileage on it in competition, which makes adding it risky,

 

[Lizziebeth]

The fact that Alysa landed it regularly as a Junior makes me more confident than if it were totally new for her. She has a mental and physical familiarity with the jump. I also trust her instincts.

And her mental game is strong which also makes me more confident

 

[olympic]

I am mostly confident. But, we will have to see 1) what happens w/ the incorporation of the 3A into her LPs this Fall, and 2) How she reacts to being pursued as WC. Heavy is the head that wears the crown

 

[Allskate]

But, we will have to see 1) what happens w/ the incorporation of the 3A into her LPs this Fall,

Definitely. She has not said that she will keep the triple axel in no matter how well she is doing in competition. She can make the call, and they can design her programs so that it doesn't require much change if she decided to do a double axel instead of a triple axel.

Also, I think that Alysa really wants to do a triple axel in competition again, and she may see this coming season as the most realistic season to include the triple axel. She and Isabeau did an IG Live together last month and, during one exchange where they were discussing studying psychology, Alysa mentioned that she is planning to go back to college after the Olympics. She also mentioned that she is going to move her psychological studies to a neurocience major. Even assuming that she intends to continue competitive skating when she goes back to school, it's not that easy to balance studying sciences at UCLA with skating your best.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Yeah, but she brought it with, and she was going to do it as it was her intent. When conservative number one and conservative number two were done with their skates Arakawa didn’t need it.

Which in the end is the point I’m trying to make, being conservative, has in my opinion a lesser pay out.

Was Sasha’s technical content more conservative than usual? My recollection was that her skate had two major errors, not that it was conservative.

 

[olympic]

Was Sasha’s technical content more conservative than usual? My recollection was that her skate had two major errors, not that it was conservative.

She attempted 7 triples, including a 3-3 sequence in the 2nd half. I don’t think she was being conservative

 

[Debbie S]

IIRC, Sasha stumbled out of her first two jumping passes. I think one waa a 3-3...3Lz-3T?...and i thought the other was a 3-3 but if she had a 3-3 sequence in the 2nd half, maybe it was a solo triple....flip?

 

[tony]

She attempted 7 triples, including a 3-3 sequence in the 2nd half. I don’t think she was being conservative

IIRC, Sasha stumbled out of her first two jumping passes. I think one waa a 3-3...3Lz-3T?...and i thought the other was a 3-3 but if she had a 3-3 sequence in the 2nd half, maybe it was a solo triple....flip?

Fall on Lutz, fall out of flip

 

[Vagabond]

Yet another thread stolen by Sasha Cohen, when, by rights, it ought to have be stolen by the Kween!