U.S. Ladies [#17]: Heading to Helsinki in a Handbasket

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There was also Wagner in 08. So it is not that rare. Either way whatever happens happens
 
kwanatic said:
We have two newbies heading to Worlds for the first time. Normally this would be an immensely pressure-filled situation but as this is the pre-Olympic year, the pressure is tenfold b/c how the team performs this year will have major repercussions next year. It's a stinky situation to be in and someone is going to get the blame if we lose that spot. Right now it's looking like that person might be Karen.

That's the double-edge sword of success. It comes with the glory and recognition but it also comes with pressure and expectation and I'm not too sure Karen is ready for it. She's never been a great competitor, all the way back to her junior days. She'd have flashes of brilliance here or there but in most cases she was a gorgeous skater who couldn't keep it together.

To be honest, I don't see that any of that has changed. The optimist in me wants to say, "oh she'll pull off a miracle at Worlds and despite boot issues and a weak competition record she's going to skate amazingly and place 8th or better in the most pressure-filled competition of her life." That could happen...but the odds of it happening aren't that great.

At this point I'm crossing my fingers for Mariah more than Karen. Mariah isn't that much better in terms of competitive nerve but, of the two of them, she seems to hold up better. We just need one of them to step up at Worlds.

I'm not on the "dump one of the others and send Mirai to Worlds" train b/c, when it mattered, Mirai didn't step up. She had a clear shot at the team this year and she failed to deliver. I'm not being mean, I'm just being honest. She was 2nd after the SP at nationals. If she'd skated the way she skated at 4CC in the FS she'd have come in 3rd or better. She blew her chance. Having said that, she seems to be slightly more reliable than the two we're sending ahead of her and if there were a way to replace someone on the team with her, I'd be all for it. However, even if that were to happen, by no means is Mirai a guarantee either. She'd need to crack 200+ at least to place in the range we'd need and she's never done that.

If Karen knows she's still having boot problems and is not going to be able to skate well, rather than incur the wrath of the fans that will befall her if she competes and tanks (a la Tibiagate with Rachael Flatt in 2012), it may be in her best interest to relinquish her spot. But it should be a decision that comes from her and her team; she shouldn't be forced to do it. I wonder if the USFS will be monitoring her now? She basically announced that she's not at her best. You'd think they'd keep an eye on her to make sure she's doing well. Then again, that contradicts my whole "it's her decision" statement b/c if they are monitoring her and see that she's not up to par, my guess is they would strip her of her spot.

It's just a big ol' mess...
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Being a newbie at Worlds the year before the Olympics with spots on the line is no excuse for Karen and Mariah not getting it together. Gracie was a total newbie at Senior Worlds also with spots for Worlds and the Olympics up for grabs with less experience and being younger and she got it done along with Ashley to get that 3rd spot. Even then Gracie was not known as a consistent skater but she showed grit and didn't let herself get overwhelmed by the situation though she you could tell she was nervous.
 
I wouldn't say Ashley underperformed at 2008 Worlds. She did about her usual and got no love from the callers or judges.
 
i just looked at Gold's appalling record at Worlds and Olympics:
  • One 6th, her first major senior championship
  • One 5th
  • Three 4th's
Each time at Worlds, she was instrumental in helping to earn three spots for US Ladies.

But I don't know how she feels worthy enough to leave the house in the morning.
 
kwanfan1818 said:
But I don't know how she feels worthy enough to leave the house in the morning.
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Well, this is an odd use of sarcasm considering that Gracie was so devastated about reaching the goal of helping to qualify 3 spots last year (2nd and 4th being the best finishes since the Kwan/Cohen days) that she didn't leave the house and go train all summer, laying the foundation for a disasterous season.

In a way, "boot problems" is a refreshing interview response after a year of "I feel fat and depressed" confessions to the press.

No matter what happens in Helsinki, I hope the 3 can take it in perspective and move forward in a positive manner.
 
kwanfan1818 said:
i just looked at Gold's appalling record at Worlds and Olympics:
  • One 6th, her first major senior championship
  • One 5th
  • Three 4th's
Each time at Worlds, she was instrumental in helping to earn three spots for US Ladies.

But I don't know how she feels worthy enough to leave the house in the morning.
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Yeah, Gracie has proven her worth internationally. Maybe to no to the degree she was capable of, but she got the job done. This year I am not so sure. And this is no Karen Chen bash, but if she is citing boot problems and Mariah is not performing up to a clean standard it's going to be really difficult to get 3 spots. A lot is on Ashley's shoulders. It a shame Gracie and Polina both struggled so bad this year.
 
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berthesghost said:
Well, this is an odd use of sarcasm considering that Gracie was so devastated about reaching the goal of helping to qualify 3 spots last year (2nd and 4th being the best finishes since the Kwan/Cohen days) that she didn't leave the house and go train all summer, laying the foundation for a disasterous season.
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She didn't go to the rink. There's a difference.

And, perhaps, the kind of judgement that suggests she "can't get the job done," is a reason for that, when, objectively, she's done very well.
 
Coco said:
Asking someone to peak at Nationals, 4ccs and Worlds is a tall order. Because it is such a tall order, I think USFSA may want to rethink sending the A team to 4CC, especially if there is significant travel time.

For all our (US ladies fans') disappointments, it has been a really long time since a US Lady dramatically underperformed at Worlds. I know it is a bit dicey with this scoring system since even hitting slightly below your average could put you well down the standings, placement wise. 2010 Worlds are a great example of this. Aside from Czisny in 2012, and we now know her performance was impacted by injury, I think you have to go back to Jenny Kirk in 2004/2005 to find a US lady's skate who skated well under her average at Worlds. The 2007 and 2008 teams were just young and did about as well as could be expected.

I'm sure someone will tell me the problem is that Mariah's and Karen's average is too low, and that's the problem. But I will be optimistic!!
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Going back and looking the ladies roster for the US the year prior to the last 2 Olympics and the final placements of the skaters, in alphabetic order and with the next year's Olympic team listed

2013 Worlds team: Gold , (6th; first trip to Worlds) Wagner (5th; prior trip to Worlds '08, 16th; 4th in 2012)
2014 Olympic team: Edmunds, Gold, Wagner

2009 Worlds team: Czisny (11th; prior trip to Worlds was '07, placed 15th)
Flatt (5th; first trip to Worlds)
2010 Olympic team: Flatt, Nagasu

2005 Worlds team: Cohen (2nd); Kirk (17th), Kwan (4th)...and their resumes are well known.
2006 Olympic team: Cohen, E. Hughes, Meissner

It's interesting to see a new face pop up in the subsequent year's Olympic team.
 
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This brings up a bigger issue IMO and it's something I posted about a couple of months ago.

The US women may be heading towards another "transitional" period. Thanks to Ashley and Gracie the US has held it's positioning on the World stage for the past couple of years. Looking ahead, beyond Pyeongchang, if Ashley and Gracie exit the sport we'd be in another post-Torino situation.

I don't see Ashley continuing much longer beyond 2018...if Gracie can't turn it around I think she'll be gone too, or if she does turn it around and does well, she may decide to leave on a high note...Polina seems to already have a life outside of skating so I'd think she may be ready to retire after the Olympics too. There go our 3 top contenders.

Russia has no shortage of talent coming up and Japan has a lot of "cookie dough" talent; it's there but they aren't done baking yet. Looking at the US pool of junior ladies no one made a splash (or even a ripple) on the JGP this season. There is talent in the US but it's not at the level needed to compete at the top.

If Karen and Mariah got their stuff together they'd be a great 1-2 punch. They are both capable in terms of their appeal, jump content, etc. it's just that they do not seem to have that focus and hunger we need to see.

It's very telling that nearly 4 years down the line our optimal team of 3 to send to Pyeongchang would be the same 3 we sent to Sochi. It shows there's staying power with the American women; it also shows there's not much else going on in the ranks. Looking at Russia and Japan, they will likely send an entirely different team than they sent last time.

Just something to think about...
 
kwanatic said:
This brings up a bigger issue IMO and it's something I posted about a couple of months ago.

The US women may be heading towards another "transitional" period. Thanks to Ashley and Gracie the US has held it's positioning on the World stage for the past couple of years. Looking ahead, beyond Pyeongchang, if Ashley and Gracie exit the sport we'd be in another post-Torino situation. . . .

Looking at the US pool of junior ladies no one made a splash (or even a ripple) on the JGP this season. There is talent in the US but it's not at the level needed to compete at the top.
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The U.S. is not positioned well for the future at the moment. At this point in the season, there's only 9 American ladies in the top 75 on the Season Best list, and only one of them competed on the JGP. In comparison, in 2016, there were 15; in 2015, there were 15; in 2014, there were 16; in 2013, there were 17. Now, part of that drop could be that the U.S. had fewer JGP spots, but since even America's best juniors couldn't make the list, it's not likely the ones who didn't get to go would have scored higher. And it was also stupid on USFS's part to waste the Golden Spin Challenger spots on skaters like Gold and Chen, preventing skaters like Wang and Zhang from even being able to earn a SB. But the fact of the matter is, the U.S. is slumping.

Is there hope for the future? I think there is a lot of talent at the novice and junior level and the new rule changes that incentivize triples and triple-triple combinations are a step in the right direction. Skaters like Nguyen, Andrews, Lin, Paganini, Huang, and Cui have a lot of talent. Do they have enough to defeat the Russians and Japanese? That I'm not so sure about--Russia's and Japan's talent pools are deeper and more developed. I would love to see Vivian Le recover her earlier form because I think she could be a formidable international competitor.
 
Exactly how many more skaters do we need? I don't see why we need more than 9 skaters in the top 75. Remember that Angela Wang, Caroline Zhang, Kaitlyn Nguyen (age), Vivian Le (injury), Starr Andrews, and Livvy Shilling were not given the chance to get a SB. Emily Chan's SB was far below her best as well, due to injury. True, many of these ladies are unlikely to catch Medvedeva, but potentially everyone in the top 10 at Nationals could be top 10 at Worlds on a good day. Same for the top 2 juniors. We had a pretty crappy season on the JGP and the Junior Ladies field at Nationals was a bit weaker than other years, but i don't take that as an indication of a system-wide breakdown. Just a rough year- I am quite sure next year will be different on the JGP. Maybe not drastically different, but improved. On the GP, we could see Mariah get 2 events, and potentially Wang and Glenn also get a spot, which is a good thing as both are quite strong. Amber has made tremendous strides in consistency in her first year with the Cains, and Angela just laid down a score at Bavarian that would have her in the 5-6 range at 4CC. Wakaba, Japan's 3rd best lady, just had 2 jump errors in the SP and 3 in the FS- surely is not unbeatable. Putting aside Karen and her boot issues and the aligning of the stars that led to her National championship (she is extremely talented, I hope things work out for her), we still have a solid crew. Ashley, Gracie, Polina, and Mirai could all retire and we would still be ok IMO.
 
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The age issue is part of why I want Chen to go to worlds. Of the top US ladies, outside of Polina who's status is uncertain right now, we don't have anyone under 20. Even Mariah will be 22 come the 2019 season. Our team as a whole is older, and while some will stick around for the next Oly cycle, we could end up with Chen as our sole veteran at 19. The reason 3 spots for the US has always been so useful is it's allowed our young skaters to get that first big international championship under their belts. If Chen is injured or if immediately before the WD cut off she knows she can't compete due to boot issues, fine, but otherwise I think long term it could be best to keep her on the team even if it costs a spot next year.
 
haribobo said:
Exactly how many more skaters do we need? I don't see why we need more than 9 skaters in the top 75. Remember that Angela Wang, Caroline Zhang, Kaitlyn Nguyen (age), Vivian Le (injury), Starr Andrews, and Livvy Shilling were not given the chance to get a SB. Emily Chan's SB was far below her best as well, due to injury. True, many of these ladies are unlikely to catch Medvedeva, but potentially everyone in the top 10 at Nationals could be top 10 at Worlds on a good day. Same for the top 2 juniors. We had a pretty crappy season on the JGP and the Junior Ladies field at Nationals was a bit weaker than other years, but i don't take that as an indication of a system-wide breakdown. Just a rough year- I am quite sure next year will be different on the JGP. Maybe not drastically different, but improved. On the GP, we could see Mariah get 2 events, and potentially Wang and Glenn also get a spot, which is a good thing as both are quite strong. Amber has made tremendous strides in consistency in her first year with the Cains, and Angela just laid down a score at Bavarian that would have her in the 5-6 range at 4CC. Wakaba, Japan's 3rd best lady, just had 2 jump errors in the SP and 3 in the FS- surely is not unbeatable. Putting aside Karen and her boot issues and the aligning of the stars that led to her National championship (she is extremely talented, I hope things work out for her), we still have a solid crew. Ashley, Gracie, Polina, and Mirai could all retire and we would still be ok IMO.
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I think we need more. I have a feeling Russia has a ton of girls who we will never see at the international level. I also don't think USFSA is looking for girls who can place top 10. They want girls who can win/medal.

I also agree that there are benefits to sending Chen for experience.
 
baramin said:
The age issue is part of why I want Chen to go to worlds. Of the top US ladies, outside of Polina who's status is uncertain right now, we don't have anyone under 20. Even Mariah will be 22 come the 2019 season. Our team as a whole is older, and while some will stick around for the next Oly cycle, we could end up with Chen as our sole veteran at 19. The reason 3 spots for the US has always been so useful is it's allowed our young skaters to get that first big international championship under their belts. If Chen is injured or if immediately before the WD cut off she knows she can't compete due to boot issues, fine, but otherwise I think long term it could be best to keep her on the team even if it costs a spot next year.
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Good point and normally I would agree, but not so much in an Olympic-qualifying year. There are other times and places to get experience.
 
kwanfan1818 said:
And, perhaps, the kind of judgement that suggests she "can't get the job done," is a reason for that, when, objectively, she's done very well.
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exactly! She should stop being so hard on herself and get some perspective. Likewise, I hope the current 3 do the same despite being held to a different standard than others by certain "fans". Unless you are somehow trying to imply that Gold's current motivational issues are due to having read unkind things on FSU, which I highly doubt, but if so I'd say woah, this is way bigger than I thought, she might not ever come back if that's all it took to derail her. But that's crazy. It's either pressure from usfs, and/or internalized pressure from being a perfectionist more likely.
 
becca said:
I think we need more. I have a feeling Russia has a ton of girls who we will never see at the international level. I also don't think USFSA is looking for girls who can place top 10. They want girls who can win/medal.
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Right now, Russia in ladies figure skating is like a factory. They churn out 30 skaters with triple triples, 25 of which show great promise at the junior level and then fall off, and 5 or so who make it at the senior level. Many of these skaters have one or two good seasons and then they take a nosedive and are promptly replaced by the next whippersnapper. Yes, it works for winning medals. But as a whole I find their system pretty excruciating.

It is nice that the US skaters have a chance of some career longevity once they hit the top. Sure if they lose all their jumps they won't be held up, but a Gracie or a Mirai can have an off season and still climb back to the top of the US standings if they hit. How they fare internationally is sort of up to them. Karen's SP at Nationals would have her ranked very close to the top at any competition. Same with Mirai's SP at 2016 Autumn Classic, and Gracie was 1st at Worlds in 2016. Ashley usually lands enough triples in her FS to get on the podium at most events even though her SP score can't match the others. Basically to put this in 2000-2005 terms, what we are dealing with right now is 2 Angela Nikodinovs (Gracie and Mirai), a Jenny Kirk (Ashley), and Naomi Nari Nam (Karen Chen). We don't have a Michelle, Sasha, or Sarah, whose coaches are retired, way past their prime, or faded into obscurity. The Nancy/Tonya era (pre-Kwan) would have produced similarly unspectacular results for the US if Russia and Japan (aside from Yuka) had their act together back then. If Mai Mihara hadn't come along out of nowhere this season, Japan would have a Satoko, Wakaba, and Rika world team (or Kanako if Satoko was still injured). That team is on a pretty level playing field with Karen/Mariah/Ashley or Mirai/Mariah/Ashley.

Russia seems to experience huge zeniths and nadirs with entire disciplines at a time, and I have to assume a lot of skaters' costs are comp'ed by the government or something. At this point, Medvedeva and Zagitova, and often times Pogorilaya, are practically untouchable by the rest of the field. I don't think its a failure of our system that we can't keep up with those skaters, its just how it is right now. We will see in a couple years. There was a time that Mao, Tuktamysheva, and Sotnikova seemed untouchable, but that time surely has passed now. I think if we can learn anything from Gracie and Mirai, it is that Frank Carroll not only lacks the skill to breath fire into several of his skaters, and he may actually worsen the peace of mind of his skaters. There is a reason Kostner left him after what, one season? No doubt the guy has skills, and I don't put all the blame on him, but something is pretty off there and I would like to see our top skaters take a permanent break from him. There are coaches like Jim Peterson and co. who seem to inspire confidence and bring their teams to greater heights and peak performances at the right time. Imagine what a coach like that could do for some of our singles skaters. Perhaps Marina will do that for Gracie- we will see. Inspired by what Tom has done for Mirai and what the Cains have done for, well, everyone they coach.
 
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haribobo said:
Right now, Russia in ladies figure skating is like a factory. They churn out 30 skaters with triple triples, 25 of which show great promise at the junior level and then fall off, and 5 or so who make it at the senior level. Many of these skaters have one or two good seasons and then they take a nosedive and are promptly replaced by the next whippersnapper. Yes, it works for winning medals. But as a whole I find their system pretty excruciating.

It is nice that the US skaters have a chance of some career longevity once they hit the top. Sure if they lose all their jumps they won't be held up, but a Gracie or a Mirai can have an off season and still climb back to the top of the US standings if they hit. How they fare internationally is sort of up to them. Karen's SP at Nationals would have her ranked very close to the top at any competition. Same with Mirai's SP at 2016 Autumn Classic, and Gracie was 1st at Worlds in 2016. Ashley usually lands enough triples in her FS to get on the podium at most events even though her SP score can't match the others. Basically to put this in 2000-2005 terms, what we are dealing with right now is 2 Angela Nikodinovs (Gracie and Mirai), a Jenny Kirk (Ashley), and Naomi Nari Nam (Karen Chen). We don't have a Michelle, Sasha, or Sarah. The Nancy/Tonya era (pre-Kwan) would have produced similarly unspectacular results for the US if Russia and Japan (aside from Yuka) had their act together back then. If Mai Mihara hadn't come along out of nowhere this season, Japan would have a Satoko, Wakaba, and Rika world team (or Kanako if Satoko was still injured). That team is on a pretty level playing field with Karen/Mariah/Ashley or Mirai/Mariah/Ashley.

Russia seems to experience huge zeniths and nadirs with entire disciplines at a time, and I have to assume a lot of skaters' costs are comp'ed by the government or something. At this point, Medvedeva and Zagitova, and often times Pogorilaya, are practically untouchable by the rest of the field. I don't think its a failure of our system that we can't keep up with those skaters, its just how it is right now. We will see in a couple years. There was a time that Mao, Tuktamysheva, and Sotnikova seemed untouchable, but that time surely has passed now. I think if we can learn anything from Gracie and Mirai, it is that Frank Carroll not only lacks the skill to breath fire into several of his skaters, and he may actually worsen the peace of mind of his skaters. There is a reason Kostner left him after what, one season? No doubt the guy has skills, and I don't put all the blame on him, but something is pretty off there and I would like to see our top skaters take a break from him for a while. There are coaches like Jim Peterson and co. who seem to inspire confidence and bring their teams to greater heights and peak performances at the right time. Imagine what a coach like that could do for some of our singles skaters. Perhaps Marina will do that for Gracie- we will see. Inspired by what Tom has done for Mirai and what the Cains have done for, well, everyone they coach.
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I'm not sure that I agree that Karen's SP at nationals would have had her ranked at close to the very top of any competition. I think that she probably would have gotten unders on both of her combinations in the short and long (my opinion, I know that the Skating Protocol disagreed). Of course, pretty much everyone in the top 6 was not rotating their combos in the sp and just didn't get called for it. But at least some of the others have a track record of rotating it outside nationals, even if only sporadically. Has Karen ever gotten her 3-3 ratified internationally recently (I'm assuming maybe she did in her jr days?)? That said, I would gladly take an under on that combo if she could hit her other jumps like she did at nationals.
 
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I think the problem with Russia is they are doing TOO good of a job. They have so many girls not enough spots.

So girls eventually quit because they cannot make Team Russia.

The USA had a similar issue back in the day. So I fail to see how it is some moral or cruel issue anymore than US gymnastics is cruel (well in spots obviously US gymnastics has other issues)

I do think the US system needs to take a look at some things just as I think Russia's Dance program needs to evaluate.

I suspect in both cases neither had done the real work adapting to IJS.

In the Russians women case I really do feel that it's sad they cannot trade some ladies for some Dance teams or if it was easier for girls to change Countries. Although in fairness a lot can turn to Pairs and to a program than will know how to develop them.
 
haribobo said:
Exactly how many more skaters do we need? I don't see why we need more than 9 skaters in the top 75.
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I don't think I would frame it as a "need." Rather, the numbers show a precipitous drop in the number of Americans who can contend on the international scene, and that's concerning.

haribobo said:
We had a pretty crappy season on the JGP and the Junior Ladies field at Nationals was a bit weaker than other years, but i don't take that as an indication of a system-wide breakdown. Just a rough year- I am quite sure next year will be different on the JGP. Maybe not drastically different, but improved.
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I'd be surprised if the U.S. earns more than 7 JGP spots at Jr. Worlds this year and the Russians and Koreans should be just as strong next season. Japan might be a little weaker with several stars potentially moving up: Honda, Shiraiwa, Sakamoto. The U.S.'s selection pool will probably be a bit stronger next year, but still not strong enough to actually beat the best international juniors.

haribobo said:
On the GP, we could see Mariah get 2 events, and potentially Wang and Glenn also get a spot, which is a good thing as both are quite strong. . . Putting aside Karen and her boot issues and the aligning of the stars that led to her National championship (she is extremely talented, I hope things work out for her), we still have a solid crew.
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I agree that there's a solid group of skaters for the GP. Here's who's currently eligible by virtue of being on the SB list: Wagner (11), Nagasu (12), Bell (18), Gold (27), Glenn (30), Hicks (31), Chen (38), Tennell (48) and Lin (69)--who will almost assuredly be back on the JGP. Wang can't get an assignment unless she gets the SA host pick.
 
I think a difference is that it's a new day every day there for Russian Ladies, while the top US skaters were protected traditionally, more like Russian Men. So instead of vying for two or three spots, US Ladies vied for one, if they were lucky.

Russian Ladies also have so many more chances to compete at all levels, both domestically leading to multiple Russia Cup competitions at the older, elite levels, to at least junior internationals, almost all of which are held in Europe. (I almost never check the lower levels; they may be there, too.). They get to recover from a slow start, for example, or show that one bad comp was an anomaly.

Since the change that only senior scores count towards senior TES minimums, I've only skimmed to see if the latest Jr. Lady from Russia at her first junior international has the senior scores, and, yep.
 
her grace said:
Wang can't get an assignment unless she gets the SA host pick.
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I won't count on it, but I *really* hope USFS does the right thing and gives a SA spot to both Angela and Caroline. Assuming they are skating well in the summer comps still, also keeping an eye on Vivian Le and Emily Chan. I am comfortable with Gracie just have one if it comes to that, and Amber and Bradie have another shot at a SB score at Junior Worlds. If Karen Chen can't improve upon her 38 SB score, I assume she will get SA. I really cannot imagine USFS assigning 3 Ladies with SB outside of the top 24 to SA, but that is what should be done.
 
kwanfan1818 said:
I think a difference is that it's a new day every day there for Russian Ladies, while the top US skaters were protected traditionally, more like Russian Men. So instead of vying for two or three spots, US Ladies vied for one, if they were lucky.

Russian Ladies also have so many more chances to compete at all levels, both domestically leading to multiple Russia Cup competitions at the older, elite levels, to at least junior internationals, almost all of which are held in Europe. (I almost never check the lower levels; they may be there, too.). They get to recover from a slow start, for example, or show that one bad comp was an anomaly.

Since the change that only senior scores count towards senior TES minimums, I've only skimmed to see if the latest Jr. Lady from Russia at her first junior international has the senior scores, and, yep.
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Yep. They are doing a really good job. It's not their fault that they can only send three girls to Worlds potentially the Olympics. And so someone like Adelina leaves quickly.

Now if only they would get those girls better Choreography/programs.

But in terms of developing young skaters and getting them seasoned other federations should be taking notes.
 
I keep my clippings from Sport Express in binders out at the dacha. :summer:

Fortunately, it wasn't that difficult to find the interview on line. :)
 
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