The Dance Hall 9: Bring the Bling or No Beijing 2021-2022

[Andrea82]

Not that they would have been favoured for one of the remaining spots, but I see no Switzerland and Kazakhstan.
Maxine Weatherby/Temirlan Yerzhanov were listed for US Classic. So I thought they would have tried.
Victoria Manni/Carlo Röthlisberger seem still active based on social media.

If I were Finland, I would have entered Yuka Orihara/Juho Pirinen as substitutes anyway.

 

[Karen-W]

Ice Dance (4 Olympic spots) - 2021 Nebelhorn entries as of Sept. 1: http://www.isuresults.com/events/csger2021_IceDance.htm
Entries
No. Name Nation
1 Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX SENECAL ARM 1
2 Holly HARRIS / Jason CHAN AUS 2
Chantelle KERRY / Andrew DODDS AUS 2 S
3 Ekaterina KUZNETSOVA / Oleksandr KOLOSOVSKYI AZE 3
4 Ekaterina MITROFANOVA / Vladislav KASINSKIJ BIH 4
5 Viktoria SEMENJUK / Ilya YUKHIMUK BLR 5
6 Natalie TASCHLEROVA / Filip TASCHLER CZE 6
7 Juulia TURKKILA / Matthias VERSLUIS FIN 7
8 Sasha FEAR / George WADDELL GBR 8
9 Maria KAZAKOVA / Georgy REVIYA GEO 9
10 Viktoriia LOPUSOVA / Asaf KAZIMOV GER 10 N
11 Lara LUFT / Maximilian PFISTERER GER 10 N
12 Katharina MUELLER / Tim DIECK GER 10 N
13 Anne-Marie WOLF / Max LIEBERS GER 10 N
14 Anna YANOVSKAYA / Adam LUKACS HUN 11
Mariia IGNATEVA / Danyil SZEMKO HUN 11 S
15 Shira ICHILOV / Laurent ABECASSIS ISR 12
Mariia NOSOVITSKAYA / Mikhail NOSOVITSKIY ISR 12 S
16 Carolina MOSCHENI / Francesco FIORETTI ITA 13
Chiara CALDERONE / Francesco RIVA ITA 13 S
Carolina PORTESI PERONI / Michael CHRASTECKY ITA 13 S
17 Yura MIN / Daniel EATON KOR 14
18 Chelsea VERHAEGH / Sherim VAN GEFFEN NED 15
19 Charlotte LAFOND-FOURNIER / Richard Kang In KAM NZL 16
20 Maria Sofia PUCHEROVA / Nikita LYSAK SVK 17
21 Yuliia ZHATA / Berk AKALIN TUR 18

So, early handicapping the field says the 4 spots are likely going to Armenia, Australia, Georgia & Korea, with the following countries potentially playing spoiler/duking it out for alternate spots - Belarus, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Israel, Italy & Turkey. Sound about right?

 

[litenkyckling]

So, early handicapping the field says the 4 spots are likely going to Armenia, Australia, Georgia & Korea, with the following countries potentially playing spoiler/duking it out for alternate spots - Belarus, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Israel, Italy & Turkey. Sound about right?

I think that the Finnish team have a good chance at beating the Armenians (or the Armoanians as I like to call this team)

 

[Colonel Green]

So, early handicapping the field says the 4 spots are likely going to Armenia, Australia, Georgia & Korea, with the following countries potentially playing spoiler/duking it out for alternate spots - Belarus, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Israel, Italy & Turkey. Sound about right?

I don't think Australia or Korea are presumptive qualifiers. I would have had the Korean team in that position based on the 2019-20 season, but they looked shaky at Cranberry; they have a few weeks to tidy things up and could certainly qualify, but they're weaker than I'd have thought in the past.

I have the Georgians as presumptive qualifiers sight-unseen, though we also don't know what sort of shape they're in.

Team Armenia, unexpectedly, look like presumptive qualifiers.

I'd have the Finnish team (who were the first to miss the cut at the last Worlds) as one of the default top four. The Czechs also did well in the RD at Worlds, though it's a whole new pattern, etc. now.

 

[allezfred]

Going back to Papadakis/Cizeron, the top French teams have rarely debuted before Masters and certainly not in an Olympic season. That they were entered in Autumn Classic at all was somewhat unusual....

 

[sap5]

Going back to Papadakis/Cizeron, the top French teams have rarely debuted before Masters and certainly not in an Olympic season. That they were entered in Autumn Classic at all was somewhat unusual....

I think they entered Autumn Classic just on the chance that they wouldn't be able to leave Canada to attend Masters. Now that they can, they withdrew.

 

[Dobre]

That seems very plausible.

 

[ostile17]

Kana Muramoto and Daisuke Takahashi will make their season's debut tomorrow, at the Labor Day Invitational in Estero.

If anyone is interested there will be a live stream

Kana Muramoto/Daisuke Takahashi Cheer Thread

. . . found some different videos. I hope they don't get taken down as well. Rhythm Dance Free Dance As I feared, the second set of videos that I linked previously are now "unavailable" also. Have found another video (only their FD) from NHK: NHK FD . RD from Japan Nationals taking place...

www.fsuniverse.net

 

[thvu]

Going back to Papadakis/Cizeron, the top French teams have rarely debuted before Masters and certainly not in an Olympic season. That they were entered in Autumn Classic at all was somewhat unusual....

When was the last time they did Autumn classic? 2014? It’s definitely not part of their usual preparation.

 

[Cherub721]

P&C did a Challenger the last Olympic season (Finlandia 2017). It took place after Masters. It was unusual in the pre-IJS era for top dancers to do these senior B/Challenger competitions before the GP, but D&W and V&M did them in 2014 and V&M and P&C did in 2018. I don't think skipping Autumn Classic is necessarily a cause to be alarmed, but if P&C don't do any international before the GP, that would be a concern especially since they have not competed internationally at all last season. Being unseeded, their GP assignments are tougher than they normally would have been. I'm hoping they will sign up for another event in Europe.

 

[Belsornia]

Not that they would have been favoured for one of the remaining spots, but I see no Switzerland and Kazakhstan.
Maxine Weatherby/Temirlan Yerzhanov were listed for US Classic. So I thought they would have tried.
Victoria Manni/Carlo Röthlisberger seem still active based on social media.

Does Weatherby have Kazakh citizenship? If not, given the lack of KAZ #2 team and the unlikelihood of getting a good individual result in a field stacked with mid-tier teams, I can see why they might prefer to skip (especially if they're still US based). Anyway, I'm glad they haven't quit/split and Kazakhstan still has a dance team.

Two other extremely long shot teams I was expecting/hoping to see on the entry list were Bulgaria (Zdravkova/Davis) and Latvia (Ippolito/Russell). But they also have the same situation of small fed/possible citizenship issues/no second team, plus were hit by the UK rink closures.

 

[Dobre]

Favorites--if you put the results from 2020 Europeans & 2021 Worlds together--would be Kazakova & Reviya, Turkkila & Versluis, Garabedian & Proulx-Senecal, and Taschlerova & Taschler.

Min & Eaton could be considered wildcards, but they lost to Harris & Chan at Lake Placid International. M&E defeated them at 2020 4CCs. Yanovskaya & Lukacs finished after Taschlerova & Taschler and ahead of Harris & Chan at Worlds.

None of these teams skated a full set of programs at Worlds last year, so really, who the heck knows?

So these 4 spots we are discussing are presuming that Reed & Ambrulevicius will compete at the Olympics, correct? And has anyone heard anything about whether Eaton has citizenship or has a chance at citizenship? Or whether the Canadian Koreans have citizenship? Or whether there is a different second team for Korea if M&E earn the berth but he does not go?

I feel so behind because there has been so little international competition for so long. Trying to get my bearings.

 

[ChelleC]

If Kazakova and Reviya do not make the Olympics I'm going to be so upset.

 

[NinjaTurtles]

My question re: PapCiz is whether they’re going to attempt the sweep necessary to get into the penultimate group for the Olympic RD…wouldn’t they need to win at least one challenger in addition to sweeping the GP/F and Euros?

 

[Colonel Green]

My question re: PapCiz is whether they’re going to attempt the sweep necessary to get into the penultimate group for the Olympic RD…wouldn’t they need to win at least one challenger in addition to sweeping the GP/F and Euros?

Penultimate group shouldn't be a problem (they only need to gain a few hundred points for that).

 

[Andrea82]

I think between Min/Eaton, Harris/Chan, Yanovskaya/Lukacs, Taschlerova/Taschler and Moscheni/Fioretti will be close and will depend on the performances on the day(s).

Does Weatherby have Kazakh citizenship? If not, given the lack of KAZ #2 team and the unlikelihood of getting a good individual result in a field stacked with mid-tier teams, I can see why they might prefer to skip (especially if they're still US based). Anyway, I'm glad they haven't quit/split and Kazakhstan still has a dance team.

Two other extremely long shot teams I was expecting/hoping to see on the entry list were Bulgaria (Zdravkova/Davis) and Latvia (Ippolito/Russell). But they also have the same situation of small fed/possible citizenship issues/no second team, plus were hit by the UK rink closures.

Makes sense about W/Y.

I read somewhere that Zdravkova/Davis have moved to coaching now. Now I only have to remember where.
Ippolito/Russell were on the entry list of Lombardia Trophy but they have been now removed.

So these 4 spots we are discussing are presuming that Reed & Ambrulevicius will compete at the Olympics, correct? And has anyone heard anything about whether Eaton has citizenship or has a chance at citizenship? Or whether the Canadian Koreans have citizenship? Or whether there is a different second team for Korea if M&E earn the berth but he does not go?

I feel so behind because there has been so little international competition for so long. Trying to get my bearings.

On Reed & Ambrulevicius. If Reed doesn't get citizenship, Lithuania could send Ramanauskaite/Kizala to the Games.

On Min/Eaton. During the first lockdown, I remember Eaton posting IG stories about studying Korean. I guess he is doing it for the quest of the citizenship.

 

[NinjaTurtles]

Penultimate group shouldn't be a problem (they only need to gain a few hundred points for that).

Ah, so will it be 100% multiplier for points earned in this current season (2021-2022) and 70% multiplier for points earned last season (2020-2021) when calculating the standings to be used for RD starting order groups at the Olympics?

 

[Andrea82]

Last time for the last 3 Olympic spots there were 5 teams in less than 3 points

Yura MIN / Alexander GAMELIN 143.80 Q
Cortney MANSOUR / Michal CESKA 143.43 Q
Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Lukas CSOLLEY 143.22 Q
Allison REED / Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS 143.95
Tina GARABEDIAN / Simon PROULX-SENECAL 140.98
Cecilia TÖRN / Jussiville PARTANEN 138.45

In 2013 it was even closer. There were 5 teams in 2 points for the last spot.

Sara HURTADO / Adria DIAZ 119.76 Q
Federica TESTA / Lukas CSOLLEY 118.93
Justyna PLUTOWSKA / Peter GERBER 118.86
Angelina TELEGINA / Otar JAPARIDZE 118.66
Henna LINDHOLM / Ossi KANERVO 117.98
Ramona ELSENER / Florian ROOST 115.59

In 2009 it went down to a point for the last spot but it was less crowded (after the Austrian teams there were only 2 other couples much weaker).

Allison Lynn Reed / Otar Japaridze 130.76 Q
Kira Geil / Dmitri Matsjuk 130.03

 

[sap5]

My question re: PapCiz is whether they’re going to attempt the sweep necessary to get into the penultimate group for the Olympic RD…wouldn’t they need to win at least one challenger in addition to sweeping the GP/F and Euros?

Do they even need to be in the penultimate group though? Wouldn't judges mark them very high no matter which group they are in, because everyone knows they should be in the last group? It would be like V/M at Worlds 2017, when they went in the 3rd group because they didn't have enough points to get into the last 2 groups. They ended up getting marks so high no one could catch them.

 

[marbri]

Do they even need to be in the penultimate group though? Wouldn't judges mark them very high no matter which group they are in, because everyone knows they should be in the last group? It would be like V/M at Worlds 2017, when they went in the 3rd group because they didn't have enough points to get into the last 2 groups. They ended up getting marks so high no one could catch them.

Agree. They will get the marks to move up. But unlike V/M the RD is not a P/C strength so I don't see them getting a great lead, but certainly enough to place them in the top 3 going into the FD.

 

[Dobre]

Last Olympiad, a bunch of teams in the fight at Nebelhorn were Igor's & a bunch of teams were Marina's. The tech panel at Nebelhorn was the same as for the Olympics. Every member of the tech panel had a team in the hunt & all three made it. (Coomes & Buckland would have made it regardless, though who knows if they would have had such a splashy score).

The former scenario will not be the case this year.

Do we know who the Olympic tech panel will be?

 

[Colonel Green]

Do they even need to be in the penultimate group though? Wouldn't judges mark them very high no matter which group they are in, because everyone knows they should be in the last group? It would be like V/M at Worlds 2017, when they went in the 3rd group because they didn't have enough points to get into the last 2 groups. They ended up getting marks so high no one could catch them.

Papadakis & Cizeron also messed up in the SD at 2017 Worlds, so we don't really know what the judges would have done if they'd gone clean. But also, V/M were still clearly ahead of P/C at that point.

Obviously they'll get a big score regardless of where they skate, but skate order does matter, and if this is decided by tenths of a point, those tenths of a point could be lost in the RD.

 

[sap5]

Agree. They will get the marks to move up. But unlike V/M the RD is not a P/C strength so I don't see them getting a great lead, but certainly enough to place them in the top 3 going into the FD.

Really? Didn't they score first place in the RD every time they competed in 2019-2020?

 

[Dobre]

The odds of everybody getting through the Olympics without nerves is not really high.

There are probably going to be mistakes. The question is who is going to make them. Who is going to get themselves into position during the season to make a run at which medals. Who is going to have enough experience & do enough of the work to get the job done under an incredible amount of Olympic pressure?

There was a whole lot of talk about momentum 4 years ago, but it wasn't momentum that got the job done. It was experience. Experience won the gold medal. Experience won the bronze medal. Experience made the cut for the final FD flight. Experience earned the dance berths in the team event. And experience qualified for the final flight of the team event.

 

[marbri]

Really? Didn't they score first place in the RD every time they competed in 2019-2020?

The Fame RD where they were .05 ahead of S/K at Euros? Essentially a tie? Sure they head a big lead in the RD in their GP events but by the time the figure skating world decided S/K were their rivals not so much. And that is the situation they are going into this season.

 

[Andrea82]

Last Olympiad, a bunch of teams in the fight at Nebelhorn were Igor's & a bunch of teams were Marina's. The tech panel at Nebelhorn was the same as for the Olympics. Every member of the tech panel had a team in the hunt & all three made it. (Coomes & Buckland would have made it regardless, though who knows if they would have had such a splashy score).

The former scenario will not be the case this year.

Do we know who the Olympic tech panel will be?

The referee and technical panel members appointed for Olympics (and 2022 ISU Championships) were supposed to be communicated by ISU to organising ISU Members by August 15th.
So I suppose those in the field likely already know who have been appointed.

China could have recommended a name for the ID panel (or for the referee) but they don't have anybody with the ISU qualification to recommend. So no obvious Chinese pick to guess in advance for us.

We know the countries of the Olympic judges' panel because exactly 13 countries qualified at 2021 Worlds making the first draw effectively unnecessary: Russia, USA, Canada, Italy, Great Britain, Spain, Poland, China, France, Lithuania, Germany, Japan, Ukraine.
Entries by name are due by mid-October. However, we already know that Lithuania judge should be Laimute Krauziene and Japan should send Kaoru Takino because both Feds don't have anybody else qualified to judge OG in Ice Dance.

 

[Peepsquick]

The Fame RD where they were .05 ahead of S/K at Euros?

Do not forget the lead they had in the RD for their Tango in 2019. They have become as skilled in the RD as they are in the FD imo.

 

[Dobre]

Well, Gadbois has likely qualifying teams from 6-8 of the potential 13 countries on the panel.

Zhulin has his work cut out for him.

 

[Dobre]

Maybe 5-8 if Allison cannot get citizenship.

 

[ostile17]

Kana MURAMOTO/Daisuke TAKAHASHI - RD - Soranbushi
19th Labor day Invitational

https://youtu.be/Uu5_R_Np9iQ