The Dance Hall 7: Tripping the Light Fantastic 2019-2020

[georgiana08]

Really disappointed that we won't get to see FB/S at worlds. Their RD was probably my favorite this season.

 

[heartyxo]

It was a rather sudden and drastic rise, for sure. Who knows, maybe Maria-in-the-cocktail-dress will save the second spot.

I feel for Caro and Shane. Goodness knows I hoped for Worlds for them, but not like this, not after the rough season they've had and with everyone lamenting that they're not the Danadians. They're positioned to get blamed for the loss of the spot if it does happen. I just hope Shane has been practicing not falling down, God love him.

I really hope that does not happen. It's not like L/L are going to be able to keep the 3rd spot and they're now the number 2 team, so technically the ones with that responsibility. But its not their fault either, it's pretty impossible to get the placement they would need when they're first year senior. Even if FB/S had been able to go it would have been a fight to keep it, since they weren't going to crack the top 7 and there's a ton of teams fighting for the last spots in the top 10.
It's no one's fault. Let's just hope the Canadanes are healthy next year and can help get the spot back for 2022.

 

[Colonel Green]

They're positioned to get blamed for the loss of the spot if it does happen.

I don't think you have to worry about that. L/L are the default #2 team right now, but neither are expected to place high enough to matter. So in that sense, expectations are minimal, hopefully everyone can skate free of them.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

Yeah, Canada will have two ice dance spots at Worlds next year since G/P really can't hope for better than 3rd, and are far more likely to get 4th or 5th, and L/L aren't really in the conversation for top 10.
But without F-B/S competing, I'm prediction that W/L, F/G, and H/B will make the top ten. I really hope that S/D can do it, since Spain will then finally have two spots, but I think that those three are the safest to make it.

 

[Colonel Green]

Imagine China and the UK getting two spots while Spain still has one.

 

[heartyxo]

I’m betting on F/G getting 8th unless H/B pull themselves together. I think W/L are front runners for the top 10 now too, with S/D and Z/G maybe getting in. I’d be surprised if L/L made it but they could get quite close.

 

[thvu]

I’m just seeing the silver lining, better chance for Spain to get 2 spots.

 

[Dobre]

I'm sorry that Fournier-Beaudry & Sorensen won't be at Worlds. I would have enjoyed seeing them. But knee surgery is usually something that takes almost a whole season for athletes to come back from, & one thing I do appreciate about the Montreal camp is that the teams usually don't come back into competition after injury until they are really ready to compete. Anyway, it is better to have dealt with this now, and next year is the year F-B&S really need to be at Worlds to help control their own destiny for the Olympic season.

 

[barbarafan]

It was a rather sudden and drastic rise, for sure. Who knows, maybe Maria-in-the-cocktail-dress will save the third spot.

I feel for Caro and Shane. Goodness knows I hoped for Worlds for them, but not like this, not after the rough season they've had and with everyone lamenting that they're not the Danadians. They're positioned to get blamed for the loss of the spot if it does happen. I just hope Shane has been practicing not falling down, God love him.

From the instagrams I have seen with Caro and Shane in them they seem to have been practicing with the teams going to worlds all along and doing simulations so it seems everyone was aware that they might run out of time on the rehabbing.

 

[allezfred]

If Canada does lose a spot this year and even if they regain it in 2021, a team will be going to Nebelhorn/wherever if they want to send three teams to the Olympics....

 

[Dobre]

If Canada does lose a spot this year and even if they regain it in 2021, a team will be going to Nebelhorn/wherever if they want to send three teams to the Olympics....

Which is fine. But still, I think if you are a team fighting for the top ten, you want to be at Worlds next season to secure that second spot.

 

[Colonel Green]

If Canada does lose a spot this year and even if they regain it in 2021, a team will be going to Nebelhorn/wherever if they want to send three teams to the Olympics....

Sure, but Canada's #3 dance team will usually be more than a match for the teams jousting for spots at Nebelhorn, and if we're assuming in this case that it's L/L, if they can't prevail there, Canada has way bigger problems than not having a third Olympic dance spot.

 

[Dobre]

They'd have as good a chance as anyone.

I think we're about 21 teams deep at the moment, when looking only at teams that can attend this year's Worlds and have split results or dances with other teams in the hunt to make the Worlds FD. Probably it will get deeper before the Olympic season. (Add maybe Muramoto & Takahashi if that works out? Maybe Yanovskaya & Lukacs? Min & Eaton could get stronger with a season under their belts. Harris & Chan could potentially get stronger and earn a berth even if he doesn't earn citizenship. With some of the mid-quadrennium splits, there might be an international surprise or two left to form. Or if Spain or another country--France?--with a competitive 2nd/3rd team was to shuffle their higher-ranked teams further into the picture next season that could expand the depth at Nebelhorn a bit. Anyway, it's interesting to think about and watch the larger picture begin to develop. (And preferably not think about anyone competitive getting injured or splitting prematurely a la Penny Coomes or Testa & Csolley the last time around).

 

[Colonel Green]

Among the teams, Chock/Bates are the big losers out of Worlds getting cancelled. They're still the US team with momentum going into next year, but not being able to cap their big comeback season with a World medal is a bit of a blow; conversely, Hubbell/Donohue are the big winners at getting to just junk this year's programs and start over for the fall.

 

[happycamper2554]

Among the teams, Chock/Bates are the big losers out of Worlds getting cancelled. They're still the US team with momentum going into next year, but not being able to cap their big comeback season with a World medal is a bit of a blow; conversely, Hubbell/Donohue are the big winners at getting to just junk this year's programs and start over for the fall.

S/K also remain european champs without the P/C revenge tour in Montreal.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

S/K and H/D definitely benefit from Worlds being cancelled. I'd say that G/P are also hurt, since this was absolutely their best chance at getting a world medal with it also being a home worlds. I'm not sure if they can next year. C/B still get to go into next year as the top US team, but now I'm wondering when the Gadbois revenge tour will happen. Montreal 2020 was kinda the perfect place for it to happen, being in Montreal and all. We shall wait and see for next year.

 

[mjb52]

Maybe I'm delusional (don't all jump on me, I know it might be delusional!!!) but I truly thought S/K had a chance to win even with Worlds in Montreal. I'm disappointed for them, but it will be cool to see what they come up with next year. I'm guessing Zhulin knows he has to do something a little different. Also definitely feel badly for Chock/Bates and it's unfortunate for the Spanish team to miss out on a prime opportunity to pull in that second spot. And honestly I feel for any team, no matter where in the standings or how their season has gone so far, that won't get a chance to finish off with Worlds when they managed to qualify for it.

 

[Wyliefan]

And poor Spain, their struggle for two spots continues.

 

[heartyxo]

Among the teams, Chock/Bates are the big losers out of Worlds getting cancelled. They're still the US team with momentum going into next year, but not being able to cap their big comeback season with a World medal is a bit of a blow; conversely, Hubbell/Donohue are the big winners at getting to just junk this year's programs and start over for the fall.

I'm so sad, for everyone but especially them. They were practically guaranteed a world medal, unless they made mistakes, after the season they had. After the last few years that have been so hard with surgery and stagnating results they were proving the world wrong and I was so excited for them! I hope they can keep the momentum going and medal at worlds before they retire, because they have worked so hard to get back to where they are and they deserve it. I'm also sad we won't get to see the snake dance one more time

 

[Colonel Green]

Maybe I'm delusional (don't all jump on me, I know it might be delusional!!!) but I truly thought S/K had a chance to win even with Worlds in Montreal.

There were a lot of rumours flying around the potential judging and tech panel composition, so it's hard to say. I didn't list S/K as necessarily the biggest winners because I thought it was possible they really wanted to press their advantage; one could similarly argue that P/C might benefit from a reboot in the same way H/D do.

Canadian ice dance also can be called a winner since its third dance spot lives to fight another day, though in some senses that doesn't change all that much looking forward to the Olympics since G/P and F-B/S would have had to thread the needle in Stockholm anyway.

Spain and all the other countries seeking two spots are definite losers here, though -- with F-B/S out, there was a golden opportunity to squeak into the top ten and then theoretically have the pressure off a bit with only needing a top twelve finish (assuming both teams made the free) to keep two going forward.

 

[Gris]

In recent Olympic cycles there seems to be a kind of curse that the team who won in the second year of the cycle would not win the Olympic gold - Delobel / Schoenfelder in 2008, V/M in 2012 and P/C in 2016.

So hey, maybe everyone aiming at the gold medal at 2022 is a winner here for escaping the curse.

 

[Colonel Green]

Other thought: no Worlds makes the Grand Prix assignments for next year really interesting in ice dance. The seeding for the top six teams has a neat way of divvying up the big guns that will not necessarily be replicated by just doing the all the assignments (other than host spots) via the standard draw. We could see some unexpected matchups.

 

[mjb52]

Feel especially bad for Step/Buks too, now that I think of it. They are the team in skating left who was impacted by the Olympics ban, so they just missed out on a huge competition two years ago for what still seem like unknown reasons and now this.

 

[Wyliefan]

Gadbois is doing a Facebook Live tomorrow: https://www.instagram.com/p/B9nOZpwJ9KC/?igshid=rdaavni7hclx

 

[Dobre]

On the plus side, McNamara & Carpenter's SB is now confirmed for the top 24. (Ways to use ice dance fandom to comfort one when one's extra week of Spring Break bliss and skating, skating, skating in an intriguing historical city are cancelled). I need 24 hours to mourn before I accept any work for next week.

(((Yelim Kim & the Korean ladies)))

 

[Colonel Green]

Other people who lose out are Guignard/Fabbri; while it was probably a longshot for them to make the podium at Worlds, they were in the final flight of the RD for the second straight year despite an underwhelming season, on the strength of having such a great 2018/19 season (and always racking up as many "other international" points as they can). Once 2018/19 gets reduced to 70%, they drop down the standings, and politics being what they are, it's going to be hard to get back to top five in the world standings again.

 

[heartyxo]

Do people think the seeds could be done by seasons best? It would be P/C S/K C/B then S/B G/P H/D. That is quite similar to what the results likely would have been.

 

[aka_gerbil]

Do people think the seeds could be done by seasons best? It would be P/C S/K C/B then S/B G/P H/D. That is quite similar to what the results likely would have been.

My thought is come up with a formula that weights in at least SB and WS. Possibly finish at last years worlds.

It has been pointed out seeds are not necessary to assign the gp spots, but personally, I don’t want lopsided fields and a skater or team that should be at the GPF not be because one field is stacked heavy and an another isn’t. Also, what about the skaters that are guaranteed two by placement at worlds? There needs to be some sort of ranking in there for the gp selection.

 

[MsZem]

The ISU could go with this season's GPF qualifiers as the seeded skaters, alternates and maybe the next three in the standings as invited skaters, and everything else based on season's best, JW placements and world standings.

 

[aka_gerbil]

The ISU could go with this season's GPF qualifiers as the seeded skaters, alternates and maybe the next three in the standings as invited skaters, and everything else based on season's best, JW placements and world standings.

But then you have something like in pairs with Tarasova/Morozov having the third highest SB, #1 in WS, but they didn’t make the GPF. It seems ridiculous to have some of those teams that made the gpf seeded ahead of them and t/m just be an invited skater.