I think looking at a junior team's record is way too soon to be making predictions about that team's future success long-term.
Speaking of which . . . statistics from this year's Sophomore Senior Class:
-Teams that earned their Worlds minimums: 5 (Lauriault & Le Gac, Pogrebinsky & Benoit, Evdokimova & Bazin, Kuzmichova & Sinicyn, Sales & Wamsteeker--the first time for S&W. Biechler & Dodge had their minimums for this season, but need a new SD minimum for next year).
-Teams that finished top 24 on the SB list: 0
-Teams that finished top 24 on this season’s World Standings list: 1 (Lauriault & Le Gac)
-Teams that qualified for the post season via Europeans or 4CCs: 2 (Lauriault & Le Gac and Sales & Wamsteeker)
-Teams that qualified for the Olympics or Worlds: 1 (Lauriault & Le Gac)
-Teams that split/retired: Up to 4, not counting the two teams that split last season/last summer. At least 1 is for certain. (Pogrebinsky & Benoit). But three more teams did not attend Nationals: Fedyuschenko & Kitteridge, Li & Xiang, and Kuzmichova & Sinicyn. F&K and L&X have not competed this season as far as I know so I will consider them done unless someone knows otherwise. K&S competed the regular season so I’ll say they are missing-in-action for now, unless someone knows otherwise.
-Athletes now skating in new teams: 1 (Razgulajevs)
Second Year Senior Nationals Results:
Lauriault & Le Gac finished 2nd at French Nationals.
Evdokimova & Bazin finished 5th at Russian Nationals.
Sales & Wamsteeker finished 6th at Canadian Nationals.
Pogrebinsky & Benoit finished 7th at U.S. Nationals.
Biechler & Dodge finished 10th at U.S. Nationals.
Oy. 4-5 teams left from the 10 that entered seniors last year. Granted, these were not the most decorated junior teams, and there's nothing surprising about the disappearance of Fedyuschenko & Kitteridge or Li & Xiang. But a 60% dissolution rate in two seasons, that's rough. And only one athlete currently listed as looking for a new partner. I'm not surprised. As I said when I started tracking these teams, the transition from junior to senior strikes me as very, very tough.
I don't see an obvious pattern either. Opportunity, of course, is a major motivator. But it's not everything. Athletes like Mackenzie Bent and Richard Kang-in Kam could have been competing for invites to major internationals this season but do not appear to be actively looking for partners. (Wikipedia says he began skating for Disney in 2017). Pogrebinsky & Benoit had the highest scores among all these teams last season; and despite a very deep field at home, would still have been likely to receive multiple opportunities to compete internationally next season. (Judging by this year's Challenger invites). Funding, of course, is a major obstacle; and these athletes are naturally at an age where they are making choices about higher education. Perfectly good choices. Still . . . frustrating.