Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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I'm just going to state for the record, I don't think Valieva will win the Olympics. She is an inconsistent skater and the Olympics are the biggest pressure cooker of them all. Yes, she came roaring back with a monster score in the FS at Finlandia after a really poor SP but I have seen nothing from her this season that gives me much confidence in her ability to hold up to the pressure cooker of Russian Nationals, Europeans and the Olympics all within a span of 7 weeks. I do think she will manage to do well enough at Russian Nationals to make the European team but I don't think she will win Russian Nationals and book her Olympic ticket outright.What you said makes sense except Anna does not have her quads. KV is as close to a lock as it gets. She will put up humongous scores this season and I guarantee you somewhere around 230 to 235 points will win the Olympic gold. That would be a pretty bad score for KV.
Tuk, on the other hand, I could see her winning the Olympics - that 3a of hers is bankable at this point. I don't think there is another female skater who has anywhere close to her success rate on that jump.
Trusova might come closest with her success rate on the quad lutz as far as bankable jumps that you expect her to land every time but even that has been hit or miss this season, and add in her stress fracture - she's fighting with Shcherbakova and Khromykh for the third spot right now.
It will be interesting to see how Russian Nationals plays out and whether the RFSF names one or two women to the Olympic team outright & sends the next 3 to Euros to duke it out for the remaining spots.