Rough prediction of 2024-25 GP spot allocation

Karen-W

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At Junior Worlds, Fradji/Forneaux said they plan to do JGP next season and then some Senior Challengers.

Tali/LaFornara want to stay Junior and are waiting for rule changes regarding age eligibilities.
To be frank, for all the teams aging out, I'd tell them to remain junior another season if the rule changes allow them to do so. The only teams who I think are ready for senior are NesMark and TkaKil and possibly GrimSav.

I do think it's a wise choice for FraForn to give it one more season on the JGP and some Challengers and I'm glad to hear that's their plan.
 

PRlady

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I cannot see Soucisse/Firus getting an invitation to SCI. Not after the way Skate Canada tried to block their switch.
Agreed. The Fed will hold a grudge despite the warm Canadian fan reception.

One error above in Women, Shimada isn’t age eligible and won’t take up a spot. She’s 15, right?
 

Karen-W

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Agreed. The Fed will hold a grudge despite the warm Canadian fan reception.

One error above in Women, Shimada isn’t age eligible and won’t take up a spot. She’s 15, right?
Correct. I haven't posted my women's predictions but there are about 2 dozen women in the SB Top 75 who aren't senior age-eligible.
 

Sylvia

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The 2023-24 international season isn't over yet ;) - Oceania International Figure Skating Competition in Melbourne AUS, May 29-31, 2024, appears to be the last competition.

The ISU Congress will be held in Las Vegas, June 10-14 - maybe GP assignments will be determined not long before or after those dates?
 

Karen-W

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The 2023-24 international season isn't over yet ;) - Oceania International Figure Skating Competition in Melbourne AUS, May 29-31, 2024, appears to be the last competition.

The ISU Congress will be held in Las Vegas, June 10-14 - maybe GP assignments will be determined not long before or after those dates?
We got the GP assignments the last week of June last year almost as soon as the last competition of the season had finished. I think it stands to reason we could get GP assignments right after the ISU Congress. :)
 

Karen-W

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WOMEN

This prediction hinges on the assumption that
  • those who have been banned from competing will still be banned in 2024-25 and
  • that no one is unexpectedly sitting out/retiring and
  • ISU uses the same rules they’ve historically used for GP spot allocation.

Top 12 from Worlds guaranteed 2 each:
Sakamoto - JPN
Levito - USA
C. Kim - KOR
Hendrickx - BEL
Repond - SUI
H. Lee - KOR
Chiba - JPN
Yoshida - JPN
Kaiser - SUI
Glenn - USA
Kurakova - POL
You - KOR

Comeback clause:
Liu - USA

Based on previous instances, Liu will likely get 2 invites (1 host invite to Skate America and 1 invite to another; see Kagiyama and Higuchi in 2023-24 GP season). This covers 26/72 spots.

Here is the updated World Standings list after the 2021/22 season's scores are dropped:
Kaori SAKAMOTO
Isabeau LEVITO
Loena HENDRICKX
Chaeyeon KIM
Haein LEE
Hana YOSHIDA
Anastasiia GUBANOVA
Rinka WATANABE
Ekaterina KURAKOVA
Yelim KIM
Nina PINZARRONE
Niina PETROKINA
Mone CHIBA
Mai MIHARA
Madeline SCHIZAS
Amber GLENN
Kimmy REPOND
Ava Marie ZIEGLER
Mao SHIMADA
Lorine SCHILD
Jia SHIN
Lindsay THORNGREN
Lara Naki GUTMANN
Sofja STEPCENKO

Not top 12 at Worlds, Top 24 in updated World Standings AND Top 24 in Season’s Best (will likely get 2 each):
Gubanova - GEO
Watanabe - JPN
Pinzarrone - BEL
Petrokina - EST
Ziegler - USA
Thorngren - USA

This now covers 38/72 spots.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in updated World Standings (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Yelim Kim - KOR (28th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Mihara - JPN (33rd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schizas - CAN (25th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Schild - FRA (35th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Gutmann - ITA (likely 1 spot)
Stepcenko - LAT (likely 1 spot)

Shimada (JPN) and J. Shin (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.


Not top 12 at Worlds, ONLY Top 24 in Season’s Best (guaranteed 1 — may get 2 based on how far down the SB list they are):
Matsuike - JPN (14th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Sumiyoshi - JPN (15th on SB list —> 2 spots)
Wi - KOR (22nd on SB list —> 2 spots)
Higuchi - JPN (24th on SB list —> 2 spots)

Uezono (JPN), Nakai (JPN), and Yuseong Kim (KOR) are not age-eligible to compete senior in 2024-25.

This now covers 56/72 spots.


These spots are left open to host countries’ discretion:
TBD - USA (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CAN (likely savings 2 spots)
TBD - FIN (likely saving 3 spots)
TBD - FRA (likely saving 2 spots; could be 3 if Schild gets assigned somewhere else)
TBD - JPN (likely saving 1 spot)
TBD - CHN (likely saving 3 spots)

This now covers 68 or 69/72 spots.


The theoretically 3 or 4 remaining spots are filled in going down the SB list:
Tennell - USA
Aoki - JPN (After this JPN has maxed out its spots)
M. Kim - KOR
Joos - ITA


Please leave any questions you have about my methodology. I'm no expert by any means, but I thought it would be fun to get a preview of the landscape for the next Grand Prix season.
I've done my projections and the only one I disagree with is Stepcenko. She has one more season of junior eligibility and is only 99 on the SB list. My gut instinct says that she'll choose the JGP again and pass on the GP spot she's guaranteed. She's Latvia's only woman with the TES mins for Euros and Worlds so she's pretty set on probably earning WS points if she skates well enough in the SP at Euros to make the FS like she did this year.

If Stepcenko does choose the JGP instead of the GP then I believe Pezzetta will get a GP invitation on the initial assignments list. That gives Italy's three leading women each one GP.
 

airgelaal

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Time for Pairs GP predictions!


Top 24 in World Standings guaranteed 1 each:
Sierova/Khobta 21 (34 SB) - they still have 1 more season of jr eligibility and I think I read somewhere that they plan on staying on the JGP next season
Do they really have another one?
 

Wyliefan

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I have a feeling that Tali/Lafornara could climb the Italian ranks fast if they went senior. But they're such a new partnership and still so mistake-prone, maybe they just feel more comfortable staying in juniors if they can and trying to get some stability and consistency.
 

AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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I have a feeling that Tali/Lafornara could climb the Italian ranks fast if they went senior. But they're such a new partnership and still so mistake-prone, maybe they just feel more comfortable staying in juniors if they can and trying to get some stability and consistency.

Gosh, I really love this team
 

Karen-W

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I have a feeling that Tali/Lafornara could climb the Italian ranks fast if they went senior. But they're such a new partnership and still so mistake-prone, maybe they just feel more comfortable staying in juniors if they can and trying to get some stability and consistency.
I agree but I also don't think it would hurt them at all to do another season on the JGP and get some real momentum for their senior debut the following season. If they can manage a medal on the JGPF and/or at Jr Worlds next year, they'd be almost a lock for the 2nd spot on the Italian Olympic team in Milano-Cortina.
 

Karen-W

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And what about Alysa Liu as a comeback skater?
She's on my list and I expect her to get 2 assignments.

I toyed with the notion of Bradie getting 2 instead of Pezzetta getting one but the SB 75 list has a TON of junior skaters who aren't age eligible for seniors next season - about 20-22 - and that will reduce the number of skaters on the Alternates list to around 25, so I think the GP Host feds will spread the wealth around and give skaters down the list into the SB mid-40s range GPs on the initial assignments list. Pezzetta is 43 while Elyce Lin-Gracey is 44 and probably has as good a shot as any of our other women at the SkAm TBD spot.
 

peibeck

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Honestly I expect the USFS to fill the women's spots with Isabeau, Amber, and Alyssa (if she appears ready by the summer). The publicity writes itself!
 

Karen-W

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Honestly I expect the USFS to fill the women's spots with Isabeau, Amber, and Alyssa (if she appears ready by the summer). The publicity writes itself!
For SkAm? I dunno. They're going to have to select one of the 4-6 seeded women (Loena, Kimmy & Haein), plus another in the 7-12 invited women (Chiba, Yoshida, Kaiser, Kurakova & You). I'd guess they'd rather get Alysa to two other GPs and not have to waste a host spot on her, but they might do that if the trade-off is getting Elyce an initial GP assignment elsewhere or getting Bradie a second one on the initial assignments list.
 

Jammers

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Honestly I expect the USFS to fill the women's spots with Isabeau, Amber, and Alyssa (if she appears ready by the summer). The publicity writes itself!
I don't understand they keep putting Isabeau and Amber together at Skate America. It ruins the chance both may have the make the GPF if they keep competing against each other. That's why the USFS would always keep Gracie and Ashley from facing off at SA for that very reason.
 

Karen-W

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I don't understand they keep putting Isabeau and Amber together at Skate America. It ruins the chance both may have the make the GPF if they keep competing against each other. That's why the USFS would always keep Gracie and Ashley from facing off at SA for that very reason.
Why? Chock/Bates and Hubbell/Donohue as well as Nathan & Vincent and/or Jason routinely competed against each other at GP events and made the GPF. It is entirely within their power, both, to reach the GPF. I think the USFS is actually advantaging them by assigning them both to SA. Both Isabeau & Amber are seeded/invited skaters, so they are both going to be assigned to GPs with other top skaters. At least by assigning them both to SA the USFS can then pick the other 2 skaters from the seeded/invited pool and give Amber & Isabeau the best shot at going 1-2 or 1-3. But, even if Amber winds up 4th at SkAm, she can still make the GPF by winning her other GP - we've seen that happen plenty of times. It is all within both skaters' control their opportunity to make the GPF.
 

Karen-W

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Amber is already guaranteed 2 GP's, so I don't see the benefit of giving her Skam. I'd rather see the other 2 spots go to skaters who might not otherwise have an opportunity to get a first or second GP.
The USFS is going to hold one of their host spots as a TBD in all likelihood. And the USFS loves Amber. I don't think there's any way on earth they won't assign Amber and Isabeau both to SkAm.

ETA - thinking about it just randomly, if Alisa Efimova has her release from the German fed and her ISU clearance to compete by the time the GP Host fed meets to make their initial assignments, I fully expect that Efimova/Mitrofanov will be assigned to SkAm instead of the USFS holding two host TBD spots in pairs.
 

AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)

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Why? Chock/Bates and Hubbell/Donohue as well as Nathan & Vincent and/or Jason routinely competed against each other at GP events and made the GPF. It is entirely within their power, both, to reach the GPF. I think the USFS is actually advantaging them by assigning them both to SA. Both Isabeau & Amber are seeded/invited skaters, so they are both going to be assigned to GPs with other top skaters. At least by assigning them both to SA the USFS can then pick the other 2 skaters from the seeded/invited pool and give Amber & Isabeau the best shot at going 1-2 or 1-3. But, even if Amber winds up 4th at SkAm, she can still make the GPF by winning her other GP - we've seen that happen plenty of times. It is all within both skaters' control their opportunity to make the GPF.

Correct. Two seasons ago, both Amber and Isabeau were on the skate America podium
 

SidelineSkater

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The US champion historically gets Skate America, so it would be Amber. I can see the SKAM lineup being something similar to Levito, Lee, Kaiser, Glenn, Petrokina, Stephchenko (if competing SR GP) or another Euro lady, Gutmann, Kim M. or Wi from Korea, and three of the 'weaker' Japanese ladies, Matsuike, Higuchi and Aoki, plus 1 TBD host spot.
 

peibeck

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For SkAm? I dunno. They're going to have to select one of the 4-6 seeded women (Loena, Kimmy & Haein), plus another in the 7-12 invited women (Chiba, Yoshida, Kaiser, Kurakova & You). I'd guess they'd rather get Alysa to two other GPs and not have to waste a host spot on her, but they might do that if the trade-off is getting Elyce an initial GP assignment elsewhere or getting Bradie a second one on the initial assignments list.

I am crassly thinking of only getting butts in seats by suggesting Isabeau/Amber/Alyssa.
 

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