Pairs Discussion Thread 2019-20: “Two skating as one”

So, halfway through the Grand Prix, the finalist forecast.

Presumptively
1. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (2 + 2)
2. Sui/Han (1? + 1?)
3. Peng/Jin (1 + 2/3?)
4. Boikova/Kozlovskii (1 + 1/2?)
5. Mishina/Galliamov (1 + 2/3/4?)

Moore-Towers/Marinaro and Tarasova/Morozov are the teams with a medal and an event yet to come. As noted above, if T/M win Rostelecom, then they're in for sure, otherwise they're going to have an anxious wait to see what happens at NHK. There's also, as wildcards, the as-yet-unseen Della Monica/Guarise, and I guess Efimova/Korovin.
 
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love_skate2011 said:
well if T/M wont win in CoR
Their only hope is that M/G get silver in NHK to secure and block MT/M
Click to expand...
NHK is the most stacked pair field of the Grand Prix, there's a lot more that could happen there than M/G or M-T/M taking silver. Della Monica/Guarise, Efimova/Korovin, and the American teams are (at least on paper) contenders.

Thinking on it, there's also a scenario where T/M win Rostelecom and then M-T/M bump P/K from the Final if they get silver and win the points tiebreaker (which, they outscored them at their first event by eleven points, so that's certainly doable).
 
Colonel Green said:
NHK is the most stacked pair field of the Grand Prix, there's a lot more that could happen there than M/G or M-T/M taking silver. Della Monica/Guarise, Efimova/Korovin, and the American teams are (at least on paper) contenders.

Thinking on it, there's also a scenario where T/M win Rostelecom and then M-T/M bump P/K from the Final if they get silver and win the points tiebreaker (which, they outscored them at their first event by eleven points, so that's certainly doable).
Click to expand...

yes I almost forgot, P/K arent a guarantee if MT/M get silver with higher SB then P/K are out
 
Colonel Green said:
NHK is the most stacked pair field of the Grand Prix, there's a lot more that could happen there than M/G or M-T/M taking silver. Della Monica/Guarise, Efimova/Korovin, and the American teams are (at least on paper) contenders.

Thinking on it, there's also a scenario where T/M win Rostelecom and then M-T/M bump P/K from the Final if they get silver and win the points tiebreaker (which, they outscored them at their first event by eleven points, so that's certainly doable).
Click to expand...

IMO the only serious contenders for the silver at NHK are MTM and M&G, based on how they have skated so far. E&K are a long shot. Sorry but I don’t see DM&G as a serious threat for silver; bronze may be.

I don’t like T&M’s chances against B&K at COR. Every mistake will cost them a lot. Their best hope may be to win the silver at COR and hope that MTM place 3rd or 4th at NHK. That’s not very encouraging. They could miss the GPF but the RSF may still want them on the Euro team. Sending three young pairs would be risky.

MTM vs M&G is a tough call. MTM are a more mature pair and that could help them even if they make a minor mistake. M&G will have to be absolutely clean at NHK to ensure a silver. Right now I see this as 50-50 or may be 55-45 in MTM’s favor.

Of course strange things have happened in the past so none of these scenarios may take place. I am not good at predictions.
 
I just looked at the standings quickly, I think it will end up being a tie break between MTM and T/M each with a silver and a bronze, with S/H, B/K, P/J, M/G and P/K through. I could have worked that out all wrong though :lol: I would be a bit torn who to root for. My least favourite of the ‘top teams’ this year is B/K but I admire their consistency and enthusiasm greatly, they just don’t do anything for me stylistically which is unusual for a Moskvina pair.

I think the Euros field will feel empty again which it would not if they let Russia send 6 pairs! :fragile: Maybe there can be a new rule if there is under the number of pairs that could make it through to the FS the next highest in world standings can fill the gaps :lol: On a serious note, I think there are some really promising pairs but we’ll only see them on the GP which is a real shame. I love E/K too but I can see they have no chance.
 
Colonel Green said:
So, halfway through the Grand Prix, the finalist forecast.

Presumptively
1. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (2 + 2)
2. Sui/Han (1? + 1?)
3. Peng/Jin (1 + 2/3?)
4. Boikova/Kozlovskii (1 + 1/2?)
5. Mishina/Galliamov (1 + 2/3/4?)

Moore-Towers/Marinaro and Tarasova/Morozov are the teams with a medal and an event yet to come. As noted above, if T/M win Rostelecom, then they're in for sure, otherwise they're going to have an anxious wait to see what happens at NHK. There's also, as wildcards, the as-yet-unseen Della Monica/Guarise, and I guess Efimova/Korovin.
Click to expand...
della Monica/Guarise competed in Ice Lab International yesterday
 
barbarafan said:
della Monica/Guarise competed in Ice Lab International yesterday
Click to expand...
Wow, being beaten by Pepeleva/Pleshkov, that must hurt! P/P were one of the weakest junior pairs on the JGP this year. I could imagine being beaten by one of the top Russian junior pairs, but by P/P, well, Della Monica/Guarise must be seriously out of shape.
 
hanca said:
Wow, being beaten by Pepeleva/Pleshkov, that must hurt! P/P were one of the weakest junior pairs on the JGP this year. I could imagine being beaten by one of the top Russian junior pairs, but by P/P, well, Della Monica/Guarise must be seriously out of shape.
Click to expand...

that video clip of their freeskate I linked
 
hanca said:
Wow, being beaten by Pepeleva/Pleshkov, that must hurt! P/P were one of the weakest junior pairs on the JGP this year. I could imagine being beaten by one of the top Russian junior pairs, but by P/P, well, Della Monica/Guarise must be seriously out of shape.
Click to expand...

She dislocated her shoulder over the break and it took a long time to heal. They've only been back on the ice for about a month total.
 
love_skate2011 said:
MT/M have silver in Canada, they need gold in CoR or a higher SB with silver to be secure a spot in the GPF
Click to expand...

In my post to which you responded, I was not talking about M-T/M. I was discussing Tarasova/Morosov and their podium chances at Rostelecom Cup possibly setting them up to be at GPF, unless they falter. Also, I'm not sure how if T/M get another bronze, how they will fare in the GPF running. Is it based on program point totals for possible tie-breaking?

For example, Haven & Brandon now have two bronzes on the GP (which debatably should have/could have been silvers -- even Pavluchenko was surprised not to be taken down for their mistakes in the IDF fp). And at home in Vegas for SA, there's no excuse for H&B not ekeing out a few points for silver over Pav/Khod, who let's face it, need a lot more seasoning -- I don't care that they are budding Russian pairs with good elements. There's no personality and their programs are a bit gimmicky at the moment to camouflage their weaknesses.

FWIW, once again, I was not speaking about M-T/M (Kirsten/Michael). Also note that the second GP for Kirsten & Michael is NHK in Japan, not Russia. Canada's Walsh/Michaud will be at Rostelecom Cup in two weeks. And Luba/Charlie's second GP is this coming weekend in China.

And now I see that other posters have already pointed out to you that M-T/M's second GP assignment is in Japan, not Russia.
 
love_skate2011 said:
I know that, and their only other competition is M/G (both pairs can get bronze too) but there are others with potentiall S+B medals in the GP points. in order to secure a GPF spot, T/M need to win gold in their next event or silver with high SB
Click to expand...

With S/H as a given for gold at NHK, Kirsten/Michael are otherwise not up against too deep of a field at NHK, so they may make the podium again. Silver is possible, but K&M will have to take down Mishina/Galliamov which is doable, but not necessarily a slam dunk. Plus, we'll have to see how the top Italians Della-Monica/Guarise will be faring by then too. Efimova/Korovin and the Knierims are also competitive teams in that field who can't be discounted, particularly if Michael continues to have some lapses on the jumps. The Skate Canada home court won't be in play, but SC politicking is always a factor. ;)

It's going to be a toss-up, particularly as this season is clearly a transitional, jockeying for position season. And the judging is equally unpredictable, except that like clockwork every team skating while Russian gets overscored on PCS. :COP:
 
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Sylvia said:
I think you're forgetting NHK will be Sui/Han's second GP after Cup of China this week.
Click to expand...

No, sorry. I was just trying to belatedly follow along with the earlier conversation, in the understanding that Sui/Han are usually unbeatable. I'm aware that S/H are at Cup of China. I have the complete pairs line-up for all GP events that I'm referencing. I should have said 'taking S/H out of the equation.' (I've slightly reworded -- because after S/H, it isn't too deep a field. And let's also wait and see how solid S/H will be physically).

It's a given that Kirsten/Michael aren't in S/H's league, when S/H are in-the-zone. As we know, S/H weren't in-the-zone at 4CCs earlier this year, which allowed K&M to even be as close as they were in the scoring.

But the scores are fairly crazy right now with top teams having retired and former mid-tier teams being given higher points by the judges
 
aftershocks said:
In my post to which you responded, I was not talking about M-T/M. I was discussing Tarasova/Morosov and their podium chances at Rostelecom Cup possibly setting them up to be at GPF, unless they falter. Also, I'm not sure how if T/M get another bronze, how they will fare in the GPF running. Is it based on program point totals for possible tie-breaking?

For example, Haven & Brandon now have two bronzes on the GP (which debatably should have/could have been silvers -- even Pavluchenko was surprised not to be taken down for their mistakes in the IDF fp). And at home in Vegas for SA, there's no excuse for H&B not ekeing out a few points for silver over Pav/Khod, who let's face it, need a lot more seasoning -- I don't care that they are budding Russian pairs with good elements. There's no personality and their programs are a bit gimmicky at the moment to camouflage their weaknesses.

FWIW, once again, I was not speaking about M-T/M (Kirsten/Michael). Also note that the second GP for Kirsten & Michael is NHK in Japan, not Russia. Canada's Walsh/Michaud will be at Rostelecom Cup in two weeks. And Luba/Charlie's second GP is this coming weekend in China.

And now I see that other posters have already pointed out to you that M-T/M's second GP assignment is in Japan, not Russia.
Click to expand...

Rostelecom will be a Russian sweep. The question is what order will the podium be in. It wouldn't shock me if the fed. does whatever it can to assist T/M even if it means throwing B/K or S/N under the bus. They simply can't let their #1 lose on home ice to fellow Russian teams if it can be avoided. It would be too embarrassing internationally and would make a mess of everything at home. As long as they are decent and don't repeat SC or US Classic they will win. I honestly can't see it any other way at the moment.

As for D/F and P/K, I know you can't compare competitions but the jump in pcs marks, with no significant improvement in performance, for both still look off to me.

D/F
65.28 tech/62.24 pcs at SA
64.85 tech/65.90 pcs in France
P/K
65.84 tech/60.89 pcs at SA
65.50 tech/66.47 pcs in France

I really do think with the lack of any seeded teams the judges went easy on the scoring, but that's just me :shuffle:
 
NAOTMAA said:
Rostelecom will be a Russian sweep. The question is what order will the podium be in. It wouldn't shock me if the fed. does whatever it can to assist T/M even if it means throwing B/K or S/N under the bus. They simply can't let their #1 lose on home ice to fellow Russian teams if it can be avoided. It would be too embarrassing internationally and would make a mess of everything at home. As long as they are decent and don't repeat SC or US Classic they will win. I honestly can't see it any other way at the moment.

As for D/F and P/K, I know you can't compare competitions but the jump in pcs marks, with no significant improvement in performance, for both still look off to me.

D/F
65.28 tech/62.24 pcs at SA
64.85 tech/65.90 pcs in France
P/K
65.84 tech/60.89 pcs at SA
65.50 tech/66.47 pcs in France

I really do think with the lack of any seeded teams the judges went easy on the scoring, but that's just me :shuffle:
Click to expand...

Hey, I don't disagree with you at all. It's just that I feel Haven/Brandon are the more veteran team obviously. H&B's momentum as a pair was slowed considerably due to her nearly career-ending knee injury. So every accomplishment for them these days is hard-won and like gravy. I agree that Haven should project more. Brandon has grown tremendously because he's worked hard on his aesthetics during the time when Haven was rehabbing. H&B came alive last season with two great programs by Charlie White. And they have an excellent coaching team which is doing their best to highlight H&B's strengths.

Meanwhile, P/K need a lot more seasoning. If they weren't Russian, I don't think they would be receiving as high scores necessarily on PCS, which they do not deserve. P/K were so over-scored in the sp, and in the fp, P/K deserved to be taken down much more for their mistakes. Any other team would have been. Even Pavluchenko was surprised to come in again over the more exciting performance by Haven/Brandon. Like a broken record, H&B and several other U.S. teams have so much going for them, and they have to find a way to stop giving away so many points on jump errors and flukey mishaps.
 
With Cain-Gribble/LeDuc, I think some observers are up or down on them according to how they fare in competitions. They certainly experienced huge missed opportunities at both of their GPs. TSL also claims that LeDuc having to bulk up to lift Ashley has affected his lines, and that he was a more dancerly skater with previous partner Dee Dee Leng.* There might be something to that, but Dee Dee ended up with a back injury, so that partnership wasn't likely to have prospered anyway, despite how well-suited they were physically. Meanwhile, Ash & Timothy have come a long way, and I still think they have the capacity to turn things around and succeed. We shall see.

*Taking a look back, I think it pays to keep in mind that LeDuc was younger with Leng, and their partnership lasted for only two seasons so it's not actually that productive to compare the two partnerships in the way TSL does. But DL & JB on TSL generally have snarky motivations anyway. By this point, LeDuc is overall a better skater and a better pairs partner:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VyMwTP0NSQ Leng/LeDuc sp 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSxnEUTJURs Leng/LeDuc fp 2013
I thought Leng/LeDuc had skated a high-scoring sp to The Feeling Begins, but maybe that was the following season -- I can't find it on Youtube. DL & JB often talk about LeDuc having been more 'the star' when he was skating with Leng. But that still doesn't mean he and Leng would have succeeded. LeDuc has progressed much further with Ashley, and they have a mature, committed partnership:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YfQMmV9DvY Ash/Timothy interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C317Vw8u1f8 A&T 2019 fp U.S. Nats
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4xrDvi0mBI A&T fp IDF 2019
 
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aftershocks said:
If B/K are on, I can see B/K winning gold again, but nothing is set in stone of course.
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I really don't know how to factor in the Rusfed internal politics. I see someone else has already commented about how politically Rusfed may wish to back their current perceived #1 team in T/M.

However, if T/M don't get it together, Rusfed backing them will make even less difference to furthering their career than Candyman did when the judges erroneously backed that program with gift scores. :scream:
 
I think the fed will keep pushing T/M as the #1 pair until B/K catch up and can compete for a world title (probably through the end of this season, maybe a little less). If T/M can capitalize on the opportunity, then I think they'll be able to stick around at the top a little longer. If not, then I think B/K will move into that top spot.
 
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