Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

[Coco]

I thought I'd create a thread where we can discuss which countries should use subs in which disciplines.

Here is a link to a very helpful Wikipedia page that is tracking qualifiers:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating_at_the_2018_Winter_Olympics_–_Qualification#Team_event

 

[MR-FAN]

Canada shouldn't use subs in any of the disciplines

 

[Coco]

Posting some comments from other threads:

For Sochi, all skaters going to Nationals had to tell USFS in December 2013 in writing whether they wanted to participate, and, if so, in which program(s), and if they'd reconsider if the team needed them to do something else. As if they would appear to be rigid before Nationals was judged and the selection committee met.

Then USFS ranked the disciplines in the order of strength. The top skater/team in the strongest discipline chose first, in theory. If they didn't want to do both, or did, but were strong-armed into sharing, they get to do their preferred program unless they were strong-armed into doing the other, and then the next strongest skater/team, if there was one, would have been offered what was left, and if that skater/team didn't want to skate at all or the program that was left, they go to the third qualifier, if there was one. Then the next strongest discipline, etc., until the team was filed, with a max of two disciplines splitting segments.

In theory, if there wasn't a full roster, USFS could have gone back to skaters who agreed to consider changing their minds, and if they didn't change, to compete with three disciplines or give back the spot if there were three or less.

The feds don't have to declare subs for the frees until after the last short is competed. I don't recall if USFS had to tell the skaters earlier if they are subbing, or if it just maked strategic sense to announce right away and to prepare them.

In Sochi, D/W, like V/M, were the top team in the strongest discipline, and they had the clout to choose to skate both. I don't think any US skater or team has the clout to do that this year. With a tight race with China anticipated for team bronze, especially since it's a likely scenario that US will have to make up a pile of points in Pairs, USFS might prefer Chen to skate both Men's segments. I'm not so sure that would be Arutunian's preference.

 

[Coco]

It's still 10 teams. As far as I know the scoring is the same. Right now it looks like the 10 teams will be:
- Canada
- Russia
- USA
- China
- Japan
- France
- Italy
- Germany
- South Korea
- Isreal

For the SP, you'll have Canada (D/R will def do the short), Russia, China, France ahead of the US for sure, a good chance of Italy ahead, and Germany ahead for sure if S/M do it (I don't know if they will, but I can see them doing the SP at least so that Bruno can get out there on Olympic ice). The USA team would probably at least beat Japan, SK, and Isreal. So 5th at the absolute best, but probably more likely 6th or 7th.

For ladies it's a bit harder to know, but you'll at least have Russia, Canada (Kaetlyn basically always nails the SP and it scores great) ahead, likely Japan too, Italy if Carolina skates okay. So best bet is probably 4th or 5th, with 3rd as the highest possibility for the SP IMO.


Back on dance, I'm hoping H/D can get the silver at NHK this week.

 

[tony]

Obviously without knowing the actual teams that will be sent, I see the short programs/dance going like this:

Ladies:
1 RUS
2 CAN
3 JPN ITA if Kostner skates
5 USA
6 KOR FRA CHN in some order
9 GER
10 ISR

Men:
1 JPN
2 USA RUS CHN in some order (of course, if it's Chen, Kolyada, and Jin)
5 CAN (if Chan skates, if not it's probably a toss-up between the lower group)
6 KOR ISR
8 FRA ITA GER

Pairs:
1 CHN
2 RUS
3 GER CAN
5 FRA
6 ITA USA
8 ISR
9 JPN
10 KOR

Dance:
1 CAN FRA
3 USA
4 RUS ITA
6 CHN
7 JPN
8 GER
9 KOR ISR (in the event, which seems likely, that T/T cannot compete for Israel)

-28 points for China in this scenario, and just about the same for the USA
-Russia and Canada would also basically be tied for the lead
-Japan would get the 5th spot, with France and Italy really not even close

What this means for the free skates is that China really is going to be in the hunt for the medal, but as I suspected at the beginning of the season, it's really going to depend on whether Sui/Han and Boyang Jin are used for both programs.

LP mock predictions:
Ladies: USA: 4th CHN: 5th
Men: USA: 2nd CHN: 3rd
Dance: USA: 2nd CHN: 4th
**Pairs: CHN: 1st USA: 4th

Meaning the USA would have a one-point advantage, that is most likely given away by not using Chen. But of course, there are still 3 months to the Olympics and there are many opportunities for things to go much different than this (ie. Sui/Han not being used for both programs, Jin the same thing, other skaters really making a push to rise up the standings, Chan's status come the Olympics, etc)

In any event, I think the battle for gold and the battle for bronze are going to be extremely close. It'll be fascinating to see how the teams are utilized.

Savchenko and Massot not skating the SP would actually benefit the US team.

ETA- Patrick Chan’s interesting start to the season probably gives Russia the advantage as favorites now.

 

[skatingguy]

Savchenko/Massot are not going to skate the team event - I think that's pretty much a given.

 

[tony]

Savchenko/Massot are not going to skate the team event - I think that's pretty much a given.

They'd only have to skate the SP though because there's no hope for Germany qualifying to the LP. Maybe they want to get a warm-up skate before the individual competition? See how the throw 3A feels?

 

[thvu]

Savchenko/Massot are not going to skate the team event - I think that's pretty much a given.

Especially if Massot can't pass his language test .

 

[rfisher]

Especially if Massot can't pass his language test .

Bite your tongue.

 

[Coco]

So China and the US look to have anywhere from 25-29 points depending on how things play out.

It's a shame the scoring scenarios leave little room for movement.

Maybe they should drop the lowest ranking discipline for the final 5 teams, or have them all start from zero for the Free Skate round.

 

[Firedancer]

They should have the free skate scores count for more. In Sochi, it was mostly decided on the short programs.

 

[Dobre]

They should have all the teams skate the free skate (which would allow real movement) and move the competition to after the individual events so no country feels compelled to pull their best athletes from specific disciplines.

 

[VGThuy]

I was thinking about the U.S. Team Event after the GPF. Of course all of this can change after Nationals.

I think now more than ever, the USFS may persuade Nathan to do both the SP and LP for the Mens event, and he will probably agree because he's young and thinks he can do both despite the turn-around and will probably think he practices run-throughs with quads anyway so what's one more run-through in a competition setting? They might even present it as a practice run for his individual. The potential for two first place showings in one discipline may be too much for the USFS to ignore.

For ice dance, I think the Shibs will do the SD because they have an excellent vehicle that can score over 80 and may play spoiler for a higher placement if any of the top 2 under-perform like they did at the 2016-2017 GPF SD. For the FD, the USFS has to decide whether to use H/D or C/B for the FD. I actually don't know if nationals results will make a difference here as all three teams have the potential to score well and are expected to place third at best in the FD barring a major error or two by the top 2 (if France gets to do the Team Final which I think they may be able to qualify for). H/D has shown they can beat Cappellini/Lanotte (if Italy makes it to the team final) while Chock/Bates have beaten Bobrova/Soloviev and Cappellini/Lanotte this season. While H/D placed higher than C/B overall in the GPF, C/B were able to beat H/D in the FD so who knows what the USFS will decide will be the "stronger" team to do the FD.

Unfortunately, because all three U.S. ice dance teams are strong, if the USFS decides to use two U.S. men instead of just Nathan, this is where I see them using only one entrant because they may think it doesn't matter which team they'll use here as they all have the same potential to place third.

As for ladies, I think they'll only use one lady if Nathan refuses to do both events and if they decide to throw a second ice dance team a bone as a thank you for performing so well in the last three seasons and being the rock for Team USA. If that's the case, I definitely see Tennell being the sole choice if she makes the team just because she has shown multiple times this season that she can at least fully rotate her jumps and doesn't need to stress out about who is on the tech panel.

If they use two ladies, and if Tennell makes the team, I see the USFS thinking she's the ONLY option to use for the SP because the last thing we need is for a U.S. lady to be buried in rankings by skaters who may or may not make the team final, especially if Tennell manages to land and rotate all of her jumps in at least the SP at Nationals. As for the LP, I can see one of Mirai or Ashley doing the LP. Mirai for the "no guts no glory" pick as she has the TES BV and maybe can land at least 5 other triples that are rotated. They may choose Ashley because her PCS may help her out in the LP and maybe she has her stuff together by February to land more triples fully rotated. I don't see Karen Chen being a factor in the team event unless she wins Nationals and there's some understanding that the National Champion will do the team event (I don't know if that's the case). Karen has the potential to be utterly amazing, but she also has the potential to place last or near last. I figure USFS will think that Karen can just focus on the individual and whether she does well or not only affects her placement rather than the whole U.S. team.

What do you guys think?

 

[Debbie S]

While H/D placed higher than C/B overall in the GPF, C/B were able to beat H/D in the FD so who knows what the USFS will decide will be the "stronger" team to do the FD.

Do we know if USFS will use the same body of work criteria they are using for selecting the individual Oly event skaters to decide who is the "stronger" skater in each discipline for the TE? Based on that criteria, C/B would have the advantage over H/D, and they were the highest-placing U.S. dance team in the GPF FD (plus repped Team USA at all the post-Worlds team events this quad), so I think they have earned their spot in the event.

Adam made a comment in his post-SA interview about wanting to show USFS that he could help the team medal in the TE, so perhaps it's been made known that the USA will use 2 men. Not surprising, and I hope they use 2 dance teams. I suspect Ashley has the inside track on the ladies spot as long as she's healthy and skates well at Nats (unless Shin Amano is the caller for the TE). Mirai and Karen have been even more inconsistent than Ashley and Bradie (if she makes the team) is too untested at major events for USFS to put her out in such a high-pressure situation.

 

[Dobre]

Do we know if USFS will use the same body of work criteria they are using for selecting the individual Oly event skaters to decide who is the "stronger" skater in each discipline for the TE? Based on that criteria, C/B would have the advantage over H/D, and they were the highest-placing U.S. dance team in the GPF FD (plus repped Team USA at all the post-Worlds team events this quad), so I think they have earned their spot in the event.

We do not.

C&B have a body of work that says they do well in the short during team events; but three seasons in a row, they have made mistakes and dropped a placement during every single team dance event over the past three years.

I think they have a good argument for making the team. I think all three U.S. dance teams have a good argument for making the team at this point in the season, and that it's a decision that shouldn't be made until after Nationals.

But . . . I also think we should learn from experience. And I have to say that experience makes me think that if we put up C&B for the FD in the team event, we will get exactly what we deserve for not paying attention.

 

[Coco]

bumping this back up....can't wait to see the US lineup. At this point, I'm wondering if they'll split men and dance, instead of men and ladies. It's possible for all three US dance teams to leave Pyeongchang with a medal!

Decisions, decisions!!!

 

[Taso]

Woah what on earth is going to happen with the US dance teams and the team event selection? A thousand and one political statements to be made there, too...

 

[VGThuy]

If C/B don't do the Team Event, I would feel pretty bad. At 2016 4CC, 2016 Worlds, 2017 4CC they managed to keep it together enough to be the no. 2 USA team at those events and winning medals. At 2017 Worlds they ended up ahead of H/D after the FD. At the GPF, they won the FD among the three Americans. They also won the FD at these Nationals. They won the FD at last year's Nationals too. They also did every post-Worlds team event this Olympic cycle (losing to Weaver/Poje after beating them at Worlds haha).

That said, if they chose H/D, that's totally understandable.

 

[tony]

As far as the men, I would imagine Nathan has to be subbed out because his team doesn't want him skating four programs in Korea. He probably will do the short, and then I would guess because of the scoring potential, Zhou would do the free skate. The few suggestions I've seen that Rippon was named to the team to help with the team event- don't think so.

Dance is so difficult. Less than a point between three teams, with different results, in the last two events. You want to spread the wealth but at the same time maybe the USFS wants to really push one team as a medal favorite. And then again, by splitting the SD and the FD, the judges for the individual event aren't able to gauge what scores would get other countries up onto the podium, so maybe that is beneficial as well.

And with Bradie showing so much consistency and her no-nonsense attitude, they may call on her to do both programs with the other two disciplines maybe being more likely to use subs.

 

[VGThuy]

I wrote this in the FD thread,

If the US splits ice dance, and if C/B don't do the Team Event, I would feel pretty bad. At 2016 4CC, 2016 Worlds, 2017 4CC they managed to keep it together enough to be the no. 2 USA team at those events and winning medals. At 2017 Worlds they ended up ahead of H/D after the FD. At the GPF, they won the FD among the three Americans. They also won the FD at these Nationals. They won the FD at last year's Nationals too. They also did every post-Worlds team event this Olympic cycle (losing to Weaver/Poje after beating them at Worlds haha).

That said, if they chose H/D, that's totally understandable.

 

[tony]

I wrote this in the FD thread,

You wrote it here

 

[VGThuy]

Whoops. I'm like woozy right now.

 

[slipchuk]

With the various Olympic teams starting to unfold lets start making a guess at some of the Team Event rosters for the Games.

U.S Team

Pairs- Scimeca Knierim @ Scimeca both programs
Men- Chen both programs
Dance- Shibutanis short dance, Hubbell & Donohue free dance
Ladies- Nagasu short program, Tennell free skate

I would be stunned at anything other than this for the U.S team, other than possibly Nagasu and Tennell switching programs.

Canadian Team

Pairs- Duhamel & Radford both programs, not entirely sure but unfortunately the other Canadian pairs have been such a mess this year they might have no choice.
Men- Chan both programs
Dance- Virtue & Moir both programs if they use 2 pairs, and Weaver & Poje free dance probably if they use only D&R in the pairs.
Ladies- Osmond short program, Daleman long program

Russian Team

Pairs- Tarasova & Morozov short program, Stolbova & Klimov free program
Men- Kolyada both programs
Dance- Bobrova & Soloviev both programs
Ladies- Medvedeva short program, Zagitova long program

Japanese Team

Pairs- Suzaki & Kihara both programs
Men- Uno short program, Hanyu long program
Dance- Muramoto & Reed both programs
Ladies- Miyahara short, Sakamoto long

Italian Team

Pairs- Marchei & Hotarek short, Della Monico & Guarise long
Men- Rizzo both programs
Dance- Cappelini & Lanotte short, Guignard & Fabri long
Ladies- Kostner both program

 

[rfisher]

You include the Japanese team and forgot the French?

 

[jiejie]

I can't believe Nathan's coach will agree to let him skate both programs for the Team Event. The Team Men's SP is Feb 9, Team Men's FS is Feb 12, and Men's SP and FS are Feb 16 and 17 respectively.

I think USFS is more likely to split the men's between 2 skaters and have only one lady do both SP and FS. Or split men's and ladies and have one dance team do both segments.

 

[DreamSkates]

Ice Dance - I would go with Shibs for short and C/B for long, since they had the highest scores for each. Let H/D put all their energies into the individual disciplines competition.

 

[DreamSkates]

I can't believe Nathan's coach will agree to let him skate both programs for the Team Event. The Team Men's SP is Feb 9, Team Men's FS is Feb 12, and Men's SP and FS are Feb 16 and 17 respectively.

I think USFS is more likely to split the men's between 2 skaters and have only one lady do both SP and FS. Or split men's and ladies and have one dance team do both segments.

Yeah, that would be too much. Zhou for short/Chen for long in the team event. I don't think you can use the same skater/pairs for both programs?

 

[jiejie]

I don't think you can use the same skater/pairs for both programs?

Yes you can and in fact, must. The rule is that you can only split skaters for SP and FS in TWO of the disciplines at most. The other two disciplines, the same skater (or couple) must skate both SP and FS. But it's up to each country's team to figure out which disciplines, if any, are the ones they want to split segments between skaters/couples.

As the Kneirems are the only US pair, they must skate both SP and FS in the team event....so it's the other three disciplines that have to be strategized.

 

[Marco]

And with Bradie showing so much consistency and her no-nonsense attitude, they may call on her to do both programs with the other two disciplines maybe being more likely to use subs.

This makes sense, but I would be so upset if Mirai worked this hard to not get to win an 'easy' team medal.

 

[Debbie S]

Yeah, that would be too much. Zhou for short/Chen for long in the team event. I don't think you can use the same skater/pairs for both programs?

Yes, you can use the same skater/team for both short and long. You can sub in 2 events...I assume it will be men and dance for the U.S. but who knows.

I like your thinking about the U.S. dance reps. Wish you were on the committee.