Todd was 4th at Nationals 94 where he skated a terrible LP, so hypothetically it seems he would not have made the team even without Boitano back, although maybe he is held up and given the 2nd spot over Nielsen without Boitano now anyway.
It is possible he medals in Lillehammer with how the competition panned
Thanks for the reply. I enjoyed reading your views.
After reading posts by you and
@bardtoob , I think there are odds that Sabovcik might have grabbed a Bronze. I can't help but have a feeling that the USSR would have attempted something to keep Petrenko on the podium. Were there USSR block judges on the Calgary men's panel?
I agree on Mark Mitchell's possible placement, but wasn't Todd given a medical bye to compete in Albertville? I figured that the US team would be represented by Wylie, Bowman and either Eldredge / Mitchell. I also agree that likely he would have outperformed Scott Davis in 94, although Davis won 1994 Nationals, so hard to see how he would be replaced. BTW, how did the US not have 3 spots for Lillehamer 1994 if the US placements at 1993 Worlds in Prague were 4-6??
I also agree w/ the assessment on Buttle; a chance he could've won, but likely fighting for the Bronze. Lysacek was consistent in the same way that Buttle was inconsistent.
Good catch on Rudy Galindo that he would've helped keep 3 spots for Nagano 1998, and I agree that he had a shot like everyone else considering mistakes made in the competition there though unlikely. It is also quite possible that his flame from 1996 may not have burned brightly through to the Olympics in such a way to keep him near the top. I do think he could've made the team though.
Yes. Agree on Wagenhoffer; easily #3 US entry ahead of Mark Cockerell who was 13th at Sarajevo, but Boitano had skated very well at 1983 Worlds and was touted for being the 1st US man to land a 3A. IDK if Wagenhoffer could've beaten that. I also see him in the top 6-10, penultimate group material along with Brian Pockar, whom IMO you put correctly as CAN's #2, and no, Santee is not on the Olympic team in 1984. He was a US standard-bearer since the 1976 Innsbruck Olympics (6th) then Lake Placid in 1980 (4th), 1981 World Silver-medalist. Just seems to be a let down he didn't break through that final barrier.
I don't think that Max Aaron medals in 2014 Sochi, but as discussed, 3-9 at Sochi was a big mess and anything was going to happed. Max just didn't have that packaging that I think the ISU judges would have looked for in a tight contest among the World's best. But he wouldn't have replaced Jeremy Abbott, who won Nationals but was a mess in Sochi, rather Jason Brown who was the top US finisher, and the US would not have had 3 spots for Sochi because Max and Ross Miner were not going to get near 13 at 2013 Worlds. Now, Plushenko skating in Russia and their only entry may have gotten a podium finish over Denis Ten. It happened in Ice Dance with Ilynkh / Katsalapov getting Bronze over Pechalat / Bourzat as hometown favorites.
My supposition was that Jason Brown in Pyeongcheng 2018 would have replaced Adam Rippon and might have done overall better as the US #3 entry, although I am very happy Adam was chosen
Thing to remember is the Soviet federation was pushing for Fadeev (clearly the #1 Soviet going into Calgary despite the surprise outcome). He was certainly the Soviet they expected to medal, not Petrenko, and they wanted him to even have a shot at the gold if he skated really well. So I don't think politics would have been what put Petrenko on the podium over Sabovcik, as I simply don't think there was much for him to begin with. Heck I am not even sure if he was solidly the #2 Soviet over Kotin (who was 4th at 87 worlds and on the scene a long time) going into Calgary or not. Unless given Fadeev's inconsistency issues which were getting worse and worse they did some good politiking behind the scenes for Petrenko just as a back up plan so in case Fadeev bombed badly enough they would still get a medal. That wasn't evident to me by any of the actual marking of the event as was though. To me it just looked like Fadeev skated a really bad short program, a pretty bad long program, and young Petrenko skated well, definitely was not overmarked, to step in and medal instead. It does seem many are forgetting Petrenko was not expected to medal in Calgary at all though, nor was he top Soviet man at the top despite winding up finishing as top Soviet man in Calgary.
I do think it is possible Aaron or old Plushenko get a bronze in Sochi but either one would have had to skate lights out for what either was capable of at the time, even with the very poorly skated event. I think for Aaron it would have been an even harder road than Plushenko, his PCS were never competitive internationally, nor his GOE, he would have had to pump in those quads, and do them all perfectly to make it. Like the time he won Skate America. I was sad he missed the team as I didn't have faith in Abbott at all anymore, and I knew Brown without a quad would find it nearly impossible to medal. I did think he was the US best shot of a top 5 finish, even without the benefit of hindsight.
The US did not have 3 spots for 94 since they won no medals at the 93 worlds. That is how it was determined then, not combined placements. That only began I think in 97. Pairs if you managed a top 5 you could send 3, any other discipline you needed a top 3. Mitchell was 4th at the 93 worlds which just missed. I guess hypothetically he would have replaced Boitano since he was 2nd at Nationals, but I think in an alternate universe Mitchell skated so well he won Nationals and made the team, the judges might hold Boitano up over Davis for the 2nd spot or something. Realistically the USFSA was always pretty far up Davis's ass back then, and in fairness he did skate quite well even though not perfectly at 94 Nationals, and Boitano was Boitano and also skated very well minus the 2nd triple axel, that I think either Mitchell or Eldredge would have had a hard road in ever making it no matter how they skated at Nationals. Although ironically with how the competition played out I could see Eldredge maybe medaling, although even in his case I think it would be difficult as he wasn't exactly on the up then, and it is not like any of the 3 medalists skated poorly even Candelero. I don't see Mitchell medaling for sure, his jumping had become weak already by then even in his better outings, and he almost never landed a triple axel anymore, and as it was skated terribly at Nationals 94 where I think he was 6th. He was realistically more primed for 92, which was also a poorer skated event despite the focus of the pros and Browning's short program errors in 94, although I doubt he medals there either. Although in this hypothetical Mitchell I guess somehow jumped and skated far better at Nationals 94 than he ever did in his life (unless Davis or Boitano skated worse) so who knows what he takes from that confidence for Lillehammer.
Yeah Eldredge was the medical bye in 92, but he was always going to be a medical bye realistically, like 100%. I mentioned Wylie since it was very controversial at the time Wylie beat Mitchell at all at the 92 Nationals, which he barely did. And if Mitchell lands that triple flip combo they literally have no choice but to have Mitchell over Wylie now. So I think that is the more realistic way Mitchell makes it as Eldredge was never not going to be put on the team, despite what horrible shape we saw he was in.
When it comes to Wagenhoffer, I am assuming he would have continued to develop and improve himself, as he seemed to be on the ascent in 82. If he did that yes I could see him staying above Boitano through 84, as Boitano was pretty stingily scored by the judges at that point, did not seem to get a lot of USFSA support which all went to Hamilton, and his artistry was considered weakish by most people still at that point. I am thinking if Wagenhoffer kept improving he could have maybe been a medal contender by 84, and if he were he would likely be above Boitano, who was not really considered a medal hopeful in 84. It is all conjecture though. Of course if he just flatlined after 82, yes Boitano would probably pass him without much problem, although he would still likely make the 84 team.
I think Adam did about as well as an almost quadless guy without a world medal was going to do in 2018. I don't think Jason would have done any better, particularly with his inconsistent performances that season unlike many other seasons to boot. Maybe the same sort of result, and even that would mean skating far better than he did the pre Olympic events where he had an unusual number of mistakes, most of all his US Nationals performances that kept him off the team (even though Adam also faltered there). To be honest given his season I would predict Brown to have a worse result, considering as I said Adam did skate very well at the Olympics. I love Brown but now way do I see him killing at the Games with how he was skating most of that season.
Yeah Galindo it could go any number of ways. He wasn't a young skater, and I think maintaining his magic from 96 Nationals and 96 worlds would be a tough ask. However if he did have a good competition with a clean triple axel in the short and some triple-triples in the long a silver or bronze was possible with how Nagano played out. It is a lot of guesswork though, he might be US #3 by then and just a top 10 skater, but either way he would atleast get an Olympic experience.
