Missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370

[IceAlisa]

Yes, the information seems to be evolving every day.

 

[jlai]

Every day I try to see if there is news, but every time I keep up I get more confused.

(((Family of passengers)))

 

[BigB08822]

Are there any islands or other places to potentially land a plane of that size in the Indian Ocean? Just because they say they have indications it went down in the Indian Ocean doesn't necessarily mean it was crashed into the water. I know the odds are slim but what if this was an insanely elaborate plan to take the plane and the pilots were somehow in on it? I can think of a thousand reasons why that would be highly unlikely but then again, nothing about the situation so far has been "likely."

My friend saw a post on FB that the plane was found in the ocean in the Bermuda Triangle. He believed it. That would truly be some sci-fi stuff right there.

 

[Marge_Simpson]

The plane is in Pyongyang; mark my words.

 

[susan6]

Are there any islands or other places to potentially land a plane of that size in the Indian Ocean? Just because they say they have indications it went down in the Indian Ocean doesn't necessarily mean it was crashed into the water. I know the odds are slim but what if this was an insanely elaborate plan to take the plane and the pilots were somehow in on it? I can think of a thousand reasons why that would be highly unlikely but then again, nothing about the situation so far has been "likely."

There are some small islands along the possible routes of the plane, but too small for such a large plane to land on:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/14/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

There is no chance, no such chance, that any aircraft of this size can come towards Andaman and Nicobar islands and land

 

[IceAlisa]

Just read in LA Times that whoever flew the plane used navigational methods that demonstrate expertise. That IMO, and the shutting off of the several transmitting devices points to someone who is a pilot. Like the two pilots in the cockpit for instance.

 

[Twizzler]

Just read in LA Times that whoever flew the plane used navigational methods that demonstrate expertise. That IMO, and the shutting off of the several transmitting devices points to someone who is a pilot. Like the two pilots in the cockpit for instance.

And at this point, the Malaysian government hasn't searched either one of their homes. If they are keeping an "anything is possible" attitude, one would think that searching the homes of the pilots wouldn't be out of the question.

 

[DFJ]

My daughter flew in from Thailand just a couple of weeks ago and I tracked that plane all the way back to Vancouver. I just can't imagine the horror those poor people are living through that are waiting for word on their loved ones.

 

[IceAlisa]

I've heard that the pilots' homes were visited, whatever that means.

 

[Twizzler]

I've heard that the pilots' homes were visited, whatever that means.

This is part of the problem- so many conflicting reports. Not right. Our local news just reported that the homes had not been searched.

I feel that the Malaysian government is withholding crucial information.

 

[IceAlisa]

I feel that way as well.

 

[peibeck]

Just read in LA Times that whoever flew the plane used navigational methods that demonstrate expertise. That IMO, and the shutting off of the several transmitting devices points to someone who is a pilot. Like the two pilots in the cockpit for instance.

What seems odd to me, is that if this was a pilot (or co-pilot) suicide that they would veer so far off they flight path. If it was a hijacking, that seems to make more sense.

CNN reported that they investigated the backgrounds of the pilots extensively this past week; though if that includes examining their residences I don't know, but I would think it probably would.

The plane is in Pyongyang; mark my words.

As a hijacking? Kidnapping?

 

[IceAlisa]

Actually, the word sabotage is being used. Which is different from hijacking which is perpetrated by an outsider, vs. sabotage which is perpetrated by crew.

Of course, sabotage doesn't have to mean suicide.

 

[zippy]

This is part of the problem- so many conflicting reports. Not right... I feel that the Malaysian government is withholding crucial information.

I'm thinking several governments are withholding crucial information at this point... the US being among them. Some of that would be expected I suppose since none of these governments want to show their hand on how powerful their radar and satellite coverage is, and there are likely things they might still be legitimately confused by, but still, when basic facts are directly contradicted by inside sources from different governments, it's odd at least. There's also a rather fascinating twitter user @flyingwithfish who purports to have contacts within US Homeland Security who are complaining the Defense dept. is withholding info from other US agencies. This person seems to think the US is investigating the possibility that the plane was hijacked and landed by one of the pilots, and the asset that the hijacking party is interested in is not the plane itself, but info from the 20 employees of Freescale Semiconductor on the flight. They supposedly have some classified contracts with the DoD dealing with new military technologies. This would have been a state-sponsored plot, and that state would be China (or perhaps cooperation between Pakistan and China). That theory might be totally preposterous (it's in doubt whether these particular employees would themselves have information worth this much), but worth noting the very first reports following the disappearance were that the plane landed in Nanjing and was only discounted because an airport employee told reporters it hadn't. Then again, I don't see a way for a plane to get from the Andaman islands to Nanjing without being spotted by at least one other country's primary radar, so that's likely out. A military base in Pakistan though?

Just read in LA Times that whoever flew the plane used navigational methods that demonstrate expertise. That IMO, and the shutting off of the several transmitting devices points to someone who is a pilot. Like the two pilots in the cockpit for instance.

Yeah, the fact that the transponder was lost exactly at the point where the plane was transitioning from Malaysia airspace to Vietnamese airspace is something. It seems they're going on the idea that the plane followed the border regions of different countries' airspaces. It does seem clear that several governments spotted *something* moving west that night around the relevant time. They must be pretty sure that it was in fact MH370 to be following this lead so much, but I wonder if it's still possible that it was some unrelated covert military operation by somebody, and this plane suffered a catastrophic fire or something and never turned west at all.

 

[susan6]

Actually, the word sabotage is being used. Which is different from hijacking which is perpetrated by an outsider, vs. sabotage which is perpetrated by crew.

Of course, sabotage doesn't have to mean suicide.

Sabotage of a plane 30000 ft in the air sounds kind of suicidal to me. But they're using "sabotage" to mean "hijacking carried out by the crew"?

 

[IceAlisa]

Sabotage can include failing to conduct the prescribed course by the plane's crew and taking the plane elsewhere. I don't see why it has to mean suicide. It can mean any kind of interference of the plane's job, which was in this case to fly to Beijing.

1.
any underhand interference with production, work, etc., in a plant, factory, etc., as by enemy agents during wartime or by employees during a trade dispute.
2.
any undermining of a cause.

Yeah, the fact that the transponder was lost exactly at the point where the plane was transitioning from Malaysia airspace to Vietnamese airspace is something. It seems they're going on the idea that the plane followed the border regions of different countries' airspaces. It does seem clear that several governments spotted *something* moving west that night around the relevant time. They must be pretty sure that it was in fact MH370 to be following this lead so much, but I wonder if it's still possible that it was some unrelated covert military operation by somebody, and this plane suffered a catastrophic fire or something and never turned west at all.

My understanding of this from listening to the experts that this was the flight in question that kept pinging the satellite every hour after it lost its usual contact and the transponder went off. The consensus seems to be that the plane kept flying for about 4 hours after the transponder and another comm system were turned off.

 

[skatingfan5]

Sabotage can include failing to conduct the prescribed course by the plane's crew and taking the plane elsewhere. I don't see why it has to mean suicide. It can mean any kind of interference of the plane's job, which was in this case to fly to Beijing.

I would call that a hijacking -- in my mind (probably incorrect) sabotage is more involved with physical tampering with the plane, its guidance systems, etc. Hijacking doesn't necessarily have to be done by persons from outside the airline crew (it can mean to illegally seize or to use for one's own purposes).

My understanding of this from listening to the experts that this was the flight in question that kept pinging the satellite every hour after it lost its usual contact and the transponder went off. The consensus seems to be that the plane kept flying for about 4 hours after the transponder and another comm system were turned off.

Yes, that's what I heard, too. That the satellite would ping each hour and that something on the plane answered the ping for 4 hours after the transponder went off and radar contact was lost.

 

[zippy]

My understanding of this from listening to the experts that this was the flight in question that kept pinging the satellite every hour after it lost its usual contact and the transponder went off. The consensus seems to be that the plane kept flying for about 4 hours after the transponder and another comm system were turned off.

Yeah that was basically my understanding too, although I guess I was assuming there wouldn't be identifying info of the aircraft transmitted with the satellite ping, so that it could possibly be a different plane, but maybe I was wrong on that.

 

[Gazpacho]

Now that you mention sabotage, I wonder if someone tampered with the plane's navigation systems to make them think they were going one way, but they were actually going another. Or to adjust the readings on their dashboard so that the the pilots would react in a way that would doom the plane.

If it were deliberate pilot sabotage, it would have had to be a coordinated effort, no? Otherwise, the other pilot would surely have asked for help. They were steering off course for a while, so it's not as if the pilot could have suddenly pressed a button to make the plane plunge, giving no time for the other pilot to react.

 

[Tinami Amori]

Yeah that was basically my understanding too, although I guess I was assuming there wouldn't be identifying info of the aircraft transmitted with the satellite ping, so that it could possibly be a different plane, but maybe I was wrong on that.

"Ping" came from AHM - Aircraft Health Management System (optional, yet highly recommended and widely used by major international and regional airlines, programme and service from Boeing, and yes it is linked to A/C tail number, Serial Number, flight, route, etc.)
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_3_07/AERO_Q307_article4.pdf

"Sabotage" originally means causing physical damage to working instrument. "Throwing your shoe/sabbo into the factory machine's engine to cause damage". In aviation application it means any interference with flight plan and/or operation of the aircraft.

 

[IceAlisa]

Yup, that was what the avionics experts said, that it could mean any interference, not just the original meaning of physical damage.

Hijacking is understood to be done by someone other than the crew.

ETA: now they are calling it 'piracy.' http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/14/malaysia-airlines-search-heads-toward-indian-ocean/

 

[zippy]

"Ping" came from AHM - Aircraft Health Management System (optional, yet highly recommended and widely used by major international and regional airlines, programme and service from Boeing, and yes it is linked to A/C tail number, Serial Number, flight, route, etc.)
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_3_07/AERO_Q307_article4.pdf

Oh sure, I know about this system - it sends data through ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System). My confusion was the categorical denial that any ACARS data was ever received by the Malaysian authorities, Boeing and Rolls Royce, so I was assuming the Inmarsat network that received the pings was a different system entirely and might not have identifying info like ACARS does. Now I see there's some confusion about this distinction in the press too, as this article mentions:

Airlines are equipped with several reporting systems, including one known as the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), which helps planes maintain contact with ground stations using radio or satellite signals. In Washington, one senior administration official said Thursday that the signals came from that system. But other media reports said it was a separate data system operated by Boeing that continued to send “pings” — the result of trying to establish a satellite connection — well after traditional contact was lost.

Anyway, I suppose that distinction is beside the point - here's some other clarifying info from a NYT article:

David Coiley, a vice president of Inmarsat, a British satellite telecommunications provider, said the missing plane had been equipped with a signaling system from the company that sends out a “keep-alive message” to establish that the plane’s communications system is still switched on.

The plane sent out a series of such messages after civilian radar lost contact, he said. Those messages later stopped, but he declined to specify precisely when or how many messages had been received. Mr. Coiley said Inmarsat was sharing the information with the airline and investigators.

 

[IceAlisa]

Now the NYT is reporting that the US military believes there is a high probability that the plane crashed into the Indian Ocean after having gone by several navigational waypoints (again, indicative of flight path knowledge of whoever was controlling the plane). These waypoints are on the customary flight path to the Middle East and Europe.

More details here on CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/14/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/

 

[peibeck]

Oh my. If it did indeed go down in the Indian Ocean we may not know for years (if ever) what happened, considering the water depths there.

 

[susan6]

Its now being reported that there were several erratic altitude changes right after the plane lost contact...including going to 45000 ft (above the safety threshold for this type of aircraft) and then descending to 23000 ft (below normal cruising altitude) as it made the course change.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html

No malfunctioning autopilot or mechanical system does that sort of thing. The ascent to 45000 ft is pretty scary; could that be a manoever to cause depressurization? If the flight path went back over the Thailand/Malaysia landmass before heading toward the Indian Ocean....passengers might have tried their cell phones....unless they weren't conscious.

 

[IceAlisa]

Some expert says that sudden changes in altitude could have been a way to incapacitate the passengers.

 

[susan6]

That's what I'm thinking too. Did they want to incapacitate, or kill? That is just a sociopathic thing to do. Why not just hijack a FedEx plane rather than do that?

 

[IceAlisa]

I cannot begin to imagine what the passengers must have experienced. Did the culprits want hostages to demand an exchange?

 

[misskarne]

Its now being reported that there were several erratic altitude changes right after the plane lost contact...including going to 45000 ft (above the safety threshold for this type of aircraft) and then descending to 23000 ft (below normal cruising altitude) as it made the course change.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html

No malfunctioning autopilot or mechanical system does that sort of thing. The ascent to 45000 ft is pretty scary; could that be a manoever to cause depressurization? If the flight path went back over the Thailand/Malaysia landmass before heading toward the Indian Ocean....passengers might have tried their cell phones....unless they weren't conscious.

Is this a real thing or is it just another "report"?

I'm growing tired of all these "reports".

 

[Karen-W]

Is this a real thing or is it just another "report"?

I'm growing tired of all these "reports".

It sounds pretty legit. According to Shepherd Smith on Fox News (I'm flipping between coverage on CNN and Fox tonight - Megyn Kelly had a GREAT panel of experts during her show last hour, and CNN's graphics are phenomenal), several major media outlets (NYT, Fox, CNN among others) all got the same news/data dump from US government sources within the span of 30-45 minutes. There's no way that so many media outlets would have received the same information unless the various sources within the US government were extremely certain of their data analysis.

The WSJ has been breaking a lot of the developments in the past 48 hours and now they're saying that this is increasingly looking like some sort of sabotage or air piracy.