Mark Mitchell: "Why would they come back to the rink?"

All true. But as someone on the front lines, I do think that USFS needs to be more upfront with this by promoting parent education and coaching ethics. As I've said elsewhere, as a parent of three kids and who's been in way too many sports, and as someone who is by nature question-happy and skeptical, I still found it especially hard to get straight answers about training, eventual costs, potential, best coaching practices.

Coaches are all, for the most part, independent contractors in competition with each other, and there's "fudging" that goes on at the ground level. I've seen kids pulled out of school and coffers drained by this sport, and the niche culture of skating and competition for students all lead to heartache long before and in spite of anyone ever getting to nationals. Competitive skating is an early-peak sport that requires a ton of sacrifice from families, early on, and specialization on the part of kids. Most parents are first timers to the sport.
At least at my rink, it's mostly the parents as opposed to the coaches that decide that their kids are going to be Olympians. Sometimes I've seen coaches tell parents their kid isn't going to the Olympics, only to see the parent change nothing but coaches to someone more willing to entertain their dreams for their child. My coach (and many others) at my rink encourage less talented but dedicated kids to skate synchro, freestyle, or solo dance and pass their tests with the intention just to have fun or skate in college. One of the girls at my rink I skated with like this ended up becoming a USFS dream skater and winning World synchro medals. Myself and one other girl who skated as a hobby ended up competing collegiate synchro with that encouragement.

From the perspective of someone with coaching experience who's had to deal with coaching politics, I understand why it's hard to get straight answers on training and eventual costs.
  • Coaches change prices and they expect the coach you start out with is not the coach you'll compete with if you become elite. They expect that you might get another specialized coach on the side, but they may not know what that coach charges - so they have no way of knowing what the eventual coaching costs are. Some coaches (like Tom Z) probably control all of your training themselves, as I'm sure you know, but this isn't the way all coaches do it, and it's certainly not something discussed until you've decided how far you want to go with skating.
    • That being said, I do think it's possible to give a cost estimate based on different paths your skater could take. I would always give parents a good estimate of what skating would cost at different levels. For instance, it's easy to know if they're a top Senior/Junior skater they can easily be paying $30k+/year. Or I knew that synchro for the beginner-level team was about $4-700/year, the middle teams was $1000-2000/year, and the top team was closer to $3000+/year plus one private lesson and two hours of freestyle a week. I would also tell them that collegiate teams could have their skating fully funded or be around $2000 (Open Collegiate) to $5000 (Non-funded Collegiate). Since I never did singles, I would point them to their non-synchro coach to talk about that.
  • They also don't know what you plan to do about dresses. While the ones Senior ladies wear cost $1000+, if you can sew (which some parents can) you can make a dress for as low as $150-200. Even if you can't sew, you can pay to get an unrhinestoned stock dress for under $200 and then rhinestone it yourself to make it look more expensive. On eBay you can get sparkly finished dresses for as low at $100. So they have no idea how much you're willing to pay for a dress.
  • They don't know how you'll do off ice. While some skaters use their on-ice coach for off ice practice, many others (particularly at rinks with gyms attached) will hire personal trainers to condition them. For lower cost options, some will do off ice at home by doing running, weights, abs, etc. and some just won't do off ice.
  • It's sometimes hard to tell potential until much later on. There have been students I thought would be awful, but it turns out they were just bad at crossovers - they excelled at things like turns that they wouldn't learn until later levels. Or some skaters (like myself) are bad at the more traditional disciplines of skating and never had an opportunity to try a discipline that suited my talents better (dance) until much later. There's also some students have we all think have 0 potential, and then work their butts off and end up doing well; on the other hand, there are students we have that have so much potential up through Juv/Intermediate who hit a wall they can never get past.

As for best coaching practices, yeah, that's a lot sketchier. I think a lot of coaches just have different ideas of what is ethical. For the most part I'd say the coaches at my rink are very ethical and ethics-focused.
Except for one coach in particular at my rink that poaches students, lies to parents that they (career ISI coach) are better than National/International USFSA coaches, and try to hide the existance of USFS synchro from their skaters/parents. I remember when the team competed against USFS teams and got dead last how upset the parents were... Because of those lies, some of their skaters think they can do (and want to do) synchro in college, but likely none of them actually can because they have maybe one USFS Moves test by the end of high school. Unfortunately they bring in a lot more business than most USFS coaches because ISI is easier, cheaper, less time-consuming and more fun at competitions than USFS, so they're not barred from coaching at the rink.
 
I can't see how any of this makes the case that he deserved to go to the Olympics.

That's interesting, since I'm not trying to make any kind of case for Ross going to the Olympics. :lol: :( CASE CLOSED oh about how many days ago already? That ship left the harbor awhile ago, though the skaters aren't yet boarding the plane to Pyeongchang. And btw, I wasn't in the room where it happened. Neither was Jason Brown, sadly.

I'm simply making observations, sharing news, offering some of my views. Everyone has their own perceptions and opinions. :)
 
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It could very well have been after that year that body of work started to be discussed. Bradley, Miner and Dornbush went to 2011 Worlds and promptly lost the 3rd spot, which we didn't get back until 2015.

Ah yes unforgettable and unforgivable. I've opined many a time in U.S. men's thread on this topic, to the point of receiving Internet side-eye. By now the episode and it's aftermath has become legend. Talk about U.S. fed worrying about how bad a decision looks @flyingsit. NOT!

But let's get it right though. Ross and Richard did their job and we shouldn't forget that (both skated two clean programs)! The 3rd spot was not lost because of these young men. It was lost largely due to US fed's stupidity. The ISU judges gave USFS the side-eye big time. They treated the newbie seniors just out of juniors disrespectfully and dismissively (Richard placed 9th, Ross 11th). Let's remember that neither Ross nor Richard had ever been to senior Worlds, and Ryan had been there twice before placing 15th and 18th. Richard was the defending JGPF gold medalist at the time too. Contrastingly unpolished Artur Gachinski with some rough looking quads placed third in his newbie senior season, skating at home. He would never reach Worlds podium again. He did not pan out as the new Plushenko.

Unfortunately the Moscow audience did not get rad Ryan's classically humorous fp theme. The always charming and talented Ryan had been looking forward to Worlds in Japan because he has a lot of fans there, and he'd starred in that famous Japanese commercial with Stephane Lambiel. He ended up in 13th place behind his younger teammates. Oh well, as you say it was the beginning of the end of respect for U.S. men and the absolutely worse time to not to send Jeremy Abbott, with the advent of the quad. His international momentum broken, Jeremy would have trouble being able to revive and consistently maintain his track record and reputation. But we did get the iconic Muse program from Jeremy in his 2012 comeback season. :)
 
Ah yes unforgettable and unforgivable. I've opined many a time in U.S. men's thread on this topic, to the point of receiving Internet side-eye. By now the episode and it's aftermath has become legend. Talk about U.S. fed worrying about how bad a decision looks @flyingsit. NOT!

It's not unforgivable in the least, as USFS sent Miner back to Worlds in 2013. Also, Dornbush received some favors after that, getting 2013 4CC after finishing 13th at Nationals. So if USFS was holding the loss of the third spot against them, it sure didn't show.

But let's get it right though. Ross and Richard did their job and we shouldn't forget that (both skated two clean programs)! The 3rd spot was not lost because of these young men. It was lost largely due to US fed's stupidity. The ISU judges gave USFS the side-eye big time. They treated the newbie seniors just out of juniors disrespectfully and dismissively (Richard placed 9th, Ross 11th). Let's remember that neither Ross nor Richard had ever been to senior Worlds, and Ryan had been there twice before placing 15th and 18th. Richard was the defending JGPF gold medalist at the time too. Contrastingly unpolished Artur Gachinski with some rough looking quads placed third in his newbie senior season, skating at home. He would never reach Worlds podium again. He did not pan out as the new Plushenko.
The judges treated newbie seniors out of juniors disrespectfully? Skaters going from junior to medaling at senior Worlds is not unheard of or even that uncommon. Gachinski was a new senior that season and placed 3rd. He landed two good quad toes (one SP, one FS) that got positive GOE. Just because Dornbush and Miner skated clean mean they deserved any higher than their placements. Dornbush's FS was 8th but only 5 points off of 4th.

Oh well, as you say it was the beginning of the end of respect for U.S. men
I said nothing of the sort.
 
They treated the newbie seniors just out of juniors disrespectfully and dismissively (Richard placed 9th, Ross 11th). Let's remember that neither Ross nor Richard had ever been to senior Worlds, and Ryan had been there twice before placing 15th and 18th. Richard was the defending JGPF gold medalist at the time too. Contrastingly unpolished Artur Gachinski with some rough looking quads placed third in his newbie senior season, skating at home. He would never reach Worlds podium again. He did not pan out as the new Plushenko.

You contradict yourself. Artur himself was also a newbie Senior just out of Juniors. He landed two nice quads and a whole lot of other very nice jumps (I think he only had two minor errors in the whole competition), and those two programs were his best two: quirky and filled with personality, and he sold the shit out of them. Whatever your feelings of inadequacy, Artur deserved that bronze medal.

And people like you banging on about "the new Plushenko" were a large part of the problems that saw him never reach the Worlds podium again - but to this day he is still the most recent Russian man to have won a World medal.
 
Ross is being talked about here. He was bailing on the 3A earlier this season and I think even let 3-3 combos go. These are not quads we are talking about. If he had been stable on those elements at Autumn Classic and SA, the conversation in the selection committee may have been different.

Interestingly, at that same competition, Keegan Messing appeared to really hit the ground running to start the season, enough of a good impression that he's now considered far more of a serious #2 contender heading into this week's Canadian nationals when compared to this same time last year.
 
At least at my rink, it's mostly the parents as opposed to the coaches that decide that their kids are going to be Olympians.

I'd say that in most cases, it's a symbiotic relationship between coaches and parents. Which is why USFS should have better education for parents. I remember seeing a chart from Canadian skating that showed very clearly and explicitly the general development "ages and stages" trajectory for singles skaters who make it to Nationals, even in the bottom groups. It was eye-opening for me in the best way possible, and held pretty true in watching the how/why of kids who get to elite levels and stay there. That combined with ranges of what is typically spent -- off ice, on ice, coaching, travel, costumes, time off work/school --would be another solid eye-opener. It won't be exact. But something it better than nothing.

I'd be very explicit as well about injury likelihood, eating disorders, and thing like the possibility of complicating education goals, as well as what to be aware of when it comes to social-emotional growth for young people dedicated to a demanding sport early on and who are possibly sacrificing that social-emotional growth.

Even good coaches aren't all having these conversations with their skaters. USFSA isn't doing well at tackling these messages. Sports parents are generally insane. But we protect kids in other ways from their parents' insanity. I've seen some things go on -- kids falling over and over because an untrained coach is trying to teach triples, or parents telling kids to get back on ice after a head smack -- that under any other situation outside of sports would be called negligent and child abuse.

We talk about the effects on our top, elite skaters who are trying to do too many quads, too young, or who are now being asked to compete harder and heavier throughout two years to be considered top prospects for Olympics....but there is a trickle-down here, again, that affects "real people." #YouAreNotAnOlympianAndThatsOK could be the next best hashtag. USFSA could cut Ross a heft check and pay him to promote it. :)
 
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That was rude on the part of the USFSA, imo. Ross deserved a personal phone call before the other athletes were called. I hope they change this part of the process. Texting news like that is so many kinds of wrong.

Were the other athletes called directly? I thought they all received text messages. Alexa and Chris talked about receiving theirs in the press conference (I didn't see all of the press conferences), and they were named to the team.

I know some people consider breaking big news via text, or not talking in person or at least on the phone, to be rude, but personally, I'd prefer that to receiving a phone call or being told in person, so I had some time to process on my own without my instantaneous reaction being broadcast to other people. It was really a struggle when my grandfather was very sick and my uncle tried to call a couple of times and was probably thinking he needed to reach me personally and not leave a message. I knew what he was calling to say and didn't want to be rude to him by not picking, but I wasn't ready to hear that news and didn't want the pressure of having to react in an appropriate and not embarrassing way the instant I heard it. (Eventually he left a message, confirming what I had suspected, and I completely lost it like I hadn't in years, and was relieved no one else could hear or see that).
 
I know some people consider breaking big news via text, or not talking in person or at least on the phone, to be rude, but personally, I'd prefer that to receiving a phone call or being told in person, so I had some time to process on my own without my instantaneous reaction being broadcast to other people.
I wonder if USFS asked the skaters' preference ahead of time.
 
Were the other athletes called directly? I thought they all received text messages. Alexa and Chris talked about receiving theirs in the press conference (I didn't see all of the press conferences), and they were named to the team.

I know some people consider breaking big news via text, or not talking in person or at least on the phone, to be rude, but personally, I'd prefer that to receiving a phone call or being told in person, so I had some time to process on my own without my instantaneous reaction being broadcast to other people. It was really a struggle when my grandfather was very sick and my uncle tried to call a couple of times and was probably thinking he needed to reach me personally and not leave a message. I knew what he was calling to say and didn't want to be rude to him by not picking, but I wasn't ready to hear that news and didn't want the pressure of having to react in an appropriate and not embarrassing way the instant I heard it. (Eventually he left a message, confirming what I had suspected, and I completely lost it like I hadn't in years, and was relieved no one else could hear or see that).

I don't think anyone would mind receiving a text that they MADE the Olympic team. Having the courtesy to call medalists in person who did not get named to the Olympic team would seem to be a kindness. The skater could choose to not accept the call, of course. Perhaps they should instead call the skater's coach, but my preference would be direct to the skater. Maybe that's something that the athlete reps should weigh in on. (Ross is not a teen, but I've seen a fair number of teens really upset from getting dumped via text or just getting ghosted. That might be influencing my thoughts on texting as a way of communicating bad news.)
 
@Jozet I think the tables you are talking about re athlete skill at different stages are in this document: https://skatecanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Skate-Canada-LTAD-Model-EN.pdf

YES!!! Thank you! This is an awesome resource! As I said I thought the ages/stages portion was especially good. I know there are always going to be outliers -- kids who don't get double axel until 14 or 15 and who go on to get triples and compete well at Regionals and Sectionals, or kids who spend far fewer hours on the ice and still are competitive -- but I generally thought this was very well done.

ETA: OK, triple axel for females by age 19 is a little badass, but you go, Skate Canada! ;)

I don't think it's meant to discourage anyone from being the one who isn't typical, but I think it also could help temper some kooky parents (it helped me) and let skaters know when it's OK to not make themselves nuts -- or where they need to pick up the pace and look for other training resources.
 
You contradict yourself. Artur himself was also a newbie Senior just out of Juniors. He landed two nice quads and a whole lot of other very nice jumps (I think he only had two minor errors in the whole competition), and those two programs were his best two: quirky and filled with personality, and he sold the shit out of them. Whatever your feelings of inadequacy, Artur deserved that bronze medal.

And people like you banging on about "the new Plushenko" were a large part of the problems that saw him never reach the Worlds podium again - but to this day he is still the most recent Russian man to have won a World medal.

I know Artur was also a newbie senior out of juniors in 2011. He skated okay at Worlds that year in his home country, and he had the valuable quads, of course. It certainly helped him skating at home, but the quads helped too, rough as his style was. I'm not contradicting myself. I'm contrasting the fact that Artur G was a bit rough around the edges vs the smoother and a bit more polished styles of Dornbush and Miner (albeit they did not have quads which were at the beginning of becoming absolutely crucial).

I later developed a soft spot for Artur and I once said he should get TAT to train him. A year after my comments on FSU, Artur did seek out TAT for help, but alas, ultimately it didn't work out for Artur. He lost consistency and command of his jumps. As a positive, under TAT, Artur did succeed in smoothing out his style a bit. He's an admirable fellow. I'm sure Plushy comparisons didn't help Artur. Too huge a legacy for Artur to try and live up to, and Plush wasn't finished skating by a long shot, at that time when Artur was trying to carve out his own identity. :plush:

I didn't originate the Plushy comparison, nor do I advocate 'banging on' about it, :drama: but quite obviously it was an inevitable comparison since AG was coached by Mishin. AG also bore a slight physical similarity to Plushy, though of course AG's build, overall looks and skating style were different. If you're going to be compared to the great Plushenko, you might as well embrace it and ride it out as best you can. ;) Sure it can be a little difficult for a young person in their early 20s to manage I suppose. :D Hopefully, Artur looks back with some fondness and not with regret on those days. Whatever you can't change, try to make peace with. I guess that brings us full circle back to the original topic.
 
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@Jozet my only problem with that model is that it's really vague about the "skate for life" phase, other than being listed. Especially for adult skaters, it is hard to get clubs & sections to commit resources to something that is so generalized. It is a particular problem now that Skate Canada cancelled Adult Nationals. So now we don't have that carrot to wave as motivation to support adult skating at the sectional and local level.
 
#YouAreNotAnOlympianAndThatsOK could be the next best hashtag. USFSA could cut Ross a heft check and pay him to promote it.

It varies for everyone what they want out of the sport. Above all, kids should not be pushed. Your post recalls to my mind Gracie's sister, Carly Gold's, goal of at least making it to Nationals. She dedicated herself to that goal and she finally achieved it. And that was a huge triumph for her. Ross Miner's girlfriend, Heidi Munger, apparently held and achieved that goal as well:
http://www.telegram.com/article/20160117/SPORTS/160119264

A cousin of mine's kids were all accomplished track athletes. One of them made it as far as the Olympic trials one year, but did not make it onto the team. Still, what an accomplishment to get that far. It pays to keep everything in perspective. Ross has a great deal to be proud of, and like he said, 'No one can take away' how he felt when he came off the ice. Ross' performances are ones I will watch again and again with great pleasure.

The sting of how USFS handled this situation though, may take some time to dissipate, and not only for Ross Miner, I'm sure. That's a fine promotional idea you suggest, but I doubt USFS has the resources to pay Ross anything, no matter how much they owe him after how poorly he was treated under this highly emotional set of circumstances.
 
Mark Mitchell's comments come from someone who has himself been on the international selection committees, if I'm not mistaken. Thus, his understanding of the "games" and politicking involved, must make it especially a toxic thing to have to relive, over and over again. Whether from his own sad Olympics selection experience or other athlete championship team selections.

What I do remember is how Mark impressively managed to pull himself together, get a completely new free skate, and was the performance of the night at Worlds. So kudos to him for showing that kind of fortitude, making even more impactful, his words in this year's situation involving Ross.
 
I really do not think "skate of your life" that implies a "miracle" applies to skaters like Ross or Adam.

Ross has been skating for 23 years. Ross did not just come up with a 4S out of no where. He had to have worked on it.

Adam has been skating for 18 years. Adam did not just decide to try 4Lz out of no where . He had to have worked on it.

There is no such thing as a fluke when these skaters skate very well.
 
...It's sometimes hard to tell potential until much later on. There have been students I thought would be awful, but it turns out they were just bad at crossovers - they excelled at things like turns that they wouldn't learn until later levels. Or some skaters (like myself) are bad at the more traditional disciplines of skating and never had an opportunity to try a discipline that suited my talents better (dance) until much later. There's also some students have we all think have 0 potential, and then work their butts off and end up doing well; on the other hand, there are students we have that have so much potential up through Juv/Intermediate who hit a wall they can never get past...

It is pretty much impossible to tell early on. Coaches and officials like to congratulate themselves on finding “talent” early on, but there is a lot of selective memory going on. They tend to immediately forget all the “talent” they select who doesn’t make it and point out only those who do. At 9 or 10 years old you could pretty much line up 1000 kids with an axel and a few doubles and randomly assigned them to the “talented” and “non talented” group and have about the same level of success with your “talent identification.” Here in BC a number of years ago there was a big push assigning kids under 7 years old who could land a loop to a “talent id group.” Yep, that went well. Gave a bunch of parents and kids bragging rights, turned a bunch more off the sport, for absolutely no reason at all. I remember pointing out to one bragging parent that neither Gracie Gold nor Johnny Weir would have made that group.
 
It's not unforgivable in the least, as USFS sent Miner back to Worlds in 2013. Also, Dornbush received some favors after that, getting 2013 4CC after finishing 13th at Nationals. So if USFS was holding the loss of the third spot against them, it sure didn't show.

I'm not saying US fed's decision was unforgettable and unforgivable toward Dornbush and Miner. :lol: :rofl: They surely appreciated the opportunity to attend their first Worlds. And absolutely no one held anything against these two young men. Not in the least. It was obvious that they both had performed well indeed. They most definitely deserved better scores. But it had turned out to be a difficult Worlds partly due to the long delay which complicated training preparedness, plus everyone's concern for what had happened in Japan, etc. I know that Ryan was disappointed by US fed's decision because he spoke of feeling Jeremy should be on the team. Clearly, it would have been beneficial for U.S. men's discipline as a whole to send Jeremy, as a recent GP medalist and a veteran well known to ISU judges. In fact, it was a no-brainer, but Jeremy apparently had not been forgiven in some quarters for his less than stellar showing at 2010 Olympics when he was a front-runner for a medal.

Probably Ricky and Ross also would have appreciated Jeremy's experienced input as a team member (or at least Ricky, since Ross would have been the one staying home if Jeremy was on the team). If three spots had been maintained though with Jeremy on the team, Ross likely would have gone to Worlds the following year when he placed third once again at Nationals.

The overall issue is that the team makeup decision was not judiciously considered for it's long term disadvantageous impact, particularly regarding the inept impression it sent re not sending to Worlds your best and most accomplished male skater. As I recall, US fed members erroneously felt they could politick on behalf of Ryan B and convince ISU judges that he was a top five contender. :drama: While Ryan has always been talented and charismatic, and he did have quads on a good day, he was not seen as a viable contender for top ten, much less top five, as it turns out. Granted, the changed venue affected Ryan's fp performance. And the delay to the start of Worlds had complicated his training.
 
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It is pretty much impossible to tell early on. Coaches and officials like to congratulate themselves on finding “talent” early on, but there is a lot of selective memory going on. They tend to immediately forget all the “talent” they select who doesn’t make it and point out only those who do. At 9 or 10 years old you could pretty much line up 1000 kids with an axel and a few doubles and randomly assigned them to the “talented” and “non talented” group and have about the same level of success with your “talent identification.” Here in BC a number of years ago there was a big push assigning kids under 7 years old who could land a loop to a “talent id group.” Yep, that went well. Gave a bunch of parents and kids bragging rights, turned a bunch more off the sport, for absolutely no reason at all. I remember pointing out to one bragging parent that neither Gracie Gold nor Johnny Weir would have made that group.

9 and 10 are hard...growth spurts haven't happened yet. By 12-13, maybe 14, I'd say more typically a girl with a solid 2A and 2 or 3 consistent triples is in the running for seeing what more money and training could do for serious competition. From what I recall, Gracie, Ashley, Mirai had all triples through lutz, at least in practice, by 13. Again, there are outliers, but you start hitting competitive walls for international advancement around 16-17 without a solid repertoire of jumps, including a 3-3.

ETA: This also sort of true for other sports as well, sports that have later competitive peak years. In both hockey and soccer, there is a lot of emphasis on developing technique and foot skills, skating skills or stick handling by 13yo. Of course, you continue working on these things forever, but it's tough to fix technique and learn fundamentals (for high competitive athletes, we're talking) after that age. You want the skills there so they grow along with kids through growth spurts, and then you're just adding strength and speed. Parents want kids to win games and tournaments, but for serious players and coaching, it's all about small-side games, way more practice than competition, and focus is on individual play, not so much team play. It's hard to convince parents of that -- they want their kids winning games -- but for kids who are in it for the long goals, paradoxically, competition is what you want the least of.
 
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It's not like Ross was some new junior that came from no where and had no previous international experience. He had 11 senior seasons of international competition prior to 2018 Nationals.

Implying what though? It seems to me that Worlds experience every year is a hugely important factor to building experience, momentum, confidence and opportunities to learn and develop. Going to one or two GPs and senior Bs with a handful of other skaters is a different animal, that is often complicated by skate order and set in stone political perceptions. GP assignments are important in offering valuable competitive international experience, but it's not like going to Worlds every year and competing against the full monty.

I agree that Ross needed to perform a lot better overall in the Fall, but he was getting his programs out there, making mistakes and going back home to train and work out the kinks. At least the competitions he attended gave him enough mileage and program repetitions to be able to have everything come together for him at Nationals in a magical way.

IMO, the key is breaking through consistently into the top 3 to 4 at Nationals, which is extremely difficult to achieve on a regular basis, especially with depth of talent among U.S. men. Ross was always in the mix, but post 2013, he became a less important part of the conversation. It had to be frustrating for him to place 2nd two years straight in the sp and then fall to 5th afterward. But he's kept working at it, and in his final season he brought his best back out onto the stage again. It's really nothing to sniff at that Ross steadily built his season, despite not being able to manage crafting perfect performances over the course of the early season every time out. There is a problem with the approach to BOW wow-in' ;)
 
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So they should have considered Jeremy Abbott's BOW for 2011 Worlds team selection?
I would have. He was 5th at the previous Worlds, silver and bronze on the GP (he missed the GPF on a tiebreaker) and 4th at Nationals by 0.19 points. He also went to 4CC after Nationals and won the bronze behind Takahashi and Hanyu.

But, hindsight is 20/20 and Bradley, Dornbush and Miner all had the technical goods to be in the mix for 5th-10th if they skated well.
 
I disagree. The key is making the most whatever opportunities you’re given, as Bradie Tennell did.

1. Everybody was getting their programs out there and making mistakes this fall, not just Ross.

2. Other than someone like Javi, who goes to Worlds every year? In the recent past, certainly not US guys.

3. In 2016, after placing 5th at Nationals, Ross was sent to 4CCs (14), US International Classic (6), China (9), Canada (12). His scores: 191.12, 214.48, 213.34, 196.53.

4. In 2017, after placing 5th at Nationals, Ross did not qualify for 2 Grand Prix spots due to his poor results in 2016. Nevertheless, USFS sent him to Autumn Classic (6) and Finlandia (5), and gave him the host pick at Skate America (6). His scores: 219.96, 233.72, 219.96.

Ross had the same opportunities as everyone else - and more than many. He just didn’t take advantage of them.
 
You know there is a different perspective that could be quite valid. I used to hire and do promotional interviews for group of employees represented by a strong union. The union did all the in house training. There was always an argument at promotion time about interview performance versus the completion of courses over the past year. The union argued that the number of courses completed should be the most important factor and that responses in an interview should mean much less. I always argued that the interview was the candidates chance to demonstrate what they had learned in the courses. That completing courses, even getting 100%, had no value if they couldn’t demostrate those skills and knowledge and apply them to the situations given in the interview. This was especially true because the senior guys always had access to more and higher level courses, and because the union provided the instructors, the more senior guys also always managed to get better marks ;)

So if the courses are the fall competitions (GP’s, Challengers, etc) and Nationals is the interview the question becomes: Should the BOW be considered, or should it simply be viewed as all the course work to learn the skills to be able to knock it out of the park at Nationals? What good is it to skate well on the GP if you can’t translate that into a great skate when the pressure is on?

Of course a hybrid of this and the current system would be something that has already been suggested. Nationals placements are used for all but the last spot (3 spots, then first and second go and the third is based on the BOW comparison between the third, fourth, and fifth place skater, or all the Skaters within a certain number of points of third place.)
 
Hard to look at the most successful federations during the past 8 years and not note that most of them use multiple factors rather than relying solely on the results of their nationals.

I think they look at one factor, the difficulty of a skater's program.
 
9 and 10 are hard...growth spurts haven't happened yet. By 12-13, maybe 14, I'd say more typically a girl with a solid 2A and 2 or 3 consistent triples is in the running for seeing what more money and training could do for serious competition. From what I recall, Gracie, Ashley, Mirai had all triples through lutz, at least in practice, by 13. Again, there are outliers, but you start hitting competitive walls for international advancement around 16-17 without a solid repertoire of jumps, including a 3-3.

Yep, 13 is usually when there is an indication. Also the skater’s level of commitment starts to show. Are they self driven or is a parent doing all the pushing? Are they willing to work hard and push through the tough times or do they still need to be managed so that they see themselves as special. Something else I find TPTB often overlook is the rate of improvement. I have seen skaters who have a 2A and a triple at 11 and 12 ... and then at 14 have the same 2A and triple. They are often still seen to be more on a competitive track than a skater who gets a 2A and a triple at 14. Both are in the same place, but my money would be on the second one to get a second or even a third triple.
 
Yep, 13 is usually when there is an indication. Also the skater’s level of commitment starts to show. Are they self driven or is a parent doing all the pushing? Are they willing to work hard and push through the tough times or do they still need to be managed so that they see themselves as special. Something else I find TPTB often overlook is the rate of improvement. I have seen skaters who have a 2A and a triple at 11 and 12 ... and then at 14 have the same 2A and triple. They are often still seen to be more on a competitive track than a skater who gets a 2A and a triple at 14. Both are in the same place, but my money would be on the second one to get a second or even a third triple.

I think I remember reading somewhere that it took Ashley almost four years to get a double-axel, and then she got all her triples within 6 months after that.

And yup, that 11-16 age range is so tough. Some kids grow an inch here and there, and I think it's easier to hold on to jumps. My daughter only ended up at 5'4" but had two years in a row where she grew 3-4 inches. She started skating late to begin with, but it was like having a new body every six weeks. Double axel is tough, but it's still possible to muscle through with a wonky one, and turn it into a kinda-sorta triple salchow. You really need strong coaching and great technique early on to move on to higher triples and hold onto them. Even then...yeesh...it's a tough sport.
 
Link to Forbes' magazine's take:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carols...gure-skatings-selection-process/#183d10195d6f

Ross' interview with a local tv station in his hometown:
https://www.necn.com/news/sports/Ma...Miner-Shocked-by-Olympics-Snub-468535473.html

Cross-posting one of my comments from the Ross Miner thread:
Bottom line, what's happened here does impact young skaters with stars in their eyes dreaming of going to the Olympics. The dream is obviously out of reach for many. But now it seems to be spelled out in no uncertain terms that you don't even have the possibility of dreaming of the impossible anymore, because BOW wow has the power to cut you down to size and wake you up to cold reality. Even if you achieve a magical skate of a lifetime, it may not punch your ticket to the Olympics.
 

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